Let's all climb mountains in 2016 -- no matter how much higher they get and how much shorter you get!
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Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Haven't had a chance to study the 9 EMA and not sure how it would fit into my trading plan. I do like to keep things simple, and have tried and discarded many indicators and ideas over the years but I'm always looking for new ideas that could potentially improve my trading results. I am a very risk-averse trader, thus the preference for intraday trading and strict interpretation of candle formations and adherence to my trading strategies and tactics. I'm not sure how smart that is, but it works for me and pays the bills, so. . .
Newly
I'm primarily an intraday trader of SPY options (99% of trades are selling naked Puts) on the Weeklies (Fri exp), but every day first thing, I check the Monthly down to the 5-Min for signs of overall direction for the day, then use the 5- and 15-min for entries/exits. I've looked at your 9MA but it just doesn't "speak" to me and I depend heavily on the 105 SMA as an important S/R point on all timeframes.
We are all experienced traders here as far as I can tell, and I think sharing our specialized knowledge with other posters here is beneficial for all of us.
Newly
Not interested in playing "gotcha" or impunging your integrity here, Risk. We're all on the same side, right? Just think it is interesting to discuss these issues for all of our enlightenment. Your mileage may vary.
Newly
Checking further on that Evening Star, I find that even Nison allows for there to be no gap, though he does say it weakens the formation. He feels the definitive fact is that the third candle pushes well into the first candle's real body. So, appears we are both correct, my interpretation being just a bit less liberal than yours, LOL. My experience over many years of trading has taught me to be strict in my interpretation of candle formations to reduce risk. I won't trade based on a loose interpretation of a formation. I guess one could say I am risk averse, LOL.
Newly
Nope, it is the weekly , and it is an eve star you posted , my apologies for not reading close enough earlier . The tall green candle the previous week , followed by a small eve star candle
Not an Evening Star without the gap between the first and second candles, Risk. Close, but close doesn't count. Assuming close counts often leads to unexpected and undesirable results.
Per Nison, Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques, pg. 271: "Evening star -- A top reversal pattern formed by three candle lines. The first is a tall white real body, the second is a small real body (white or black) that gaps above the first real body to form a star, and the third is a black candle that closes well into the first session's white real body." (emphasis mine) No gap between the first and second real bodies on that chart nor does it appear this week's candle will pierce deeply into that long white first candle with only one day to go.
Newly
That's it! Tnx, Flo.
Newly
IIRC there used to be a board to lookup definitions of terms, slang, etc. used on these boards. Does anyone know if it still exists and where? TIA
Newly
My first computer was an IBM AT (which I finally junked a few months ago although it still worked in perfect condition) which I bought for about $3,000 as I recall around 1985 or 6. Most big businesses had computers in their offices by then IIRC, but they were still a bit expensive for most households. It wasn't until the cost began to come down that they became ubiquitous in American homes, and AOL was all the rage, LOL.
I think perhaps one found mainframe computers taking up an entire room in some large companies 40 years ago, but it was certainly not the norm.
Newly
My thinking is along the line that it costs someone to create, maintain and run a website, and if that site is free to users, who pays these costs?
It is like TV -- in Europe one buys a TV and a license to receive program content but there are no ads because the licenses cover the costs (or at least that is the way it was when I lived there). In the US we pay for the TV, but the content is free to users, paid for by the advertising. The Net is no different, IMO -- it is mostly free, and the ads pay for the costs to create and maintain sites free to users. Personally I prefer this way to having to pay for a license to use the internet, or pay for each site one visits.
Newly
Like you, Kitt, I have nothing to hide but prefer not to be snooped anyway. When I first ran this computer, one of the first things I did was get rid of every program I felt unnecessary or that might call home unbeknownst to me, and disabled all extraneous services. I do not backup to the cloud, Cortana is dead and gone, and while I have loaded many programs onto my computer, every file I create in them is backed up to a thumb drive and not saved on my HD, and I wipe all temp files every evening before I shut down for the day. Perhaps an overabundance of caution, but better safe than sorry.
However, when all is said and done, I can understand why popups and ads are shoved in our faces because basically the internet is free, so that is just a price we must pay. I run a no-script program, and I get no ads or popups at all, but then, I rarely surf the Net.
Newly
Thank you for your input. I'm still getting familiar with Win10 and where to find info. After market close I'll set up chkdsk to run on next boot. Already tried a number of admin tools but no love.
While computer problems are a bit of a pain, with each one I encounter I learn something new and useful.
Thanks again for your suggestions.
Newly
Hi, Kitt. Tnx for the reply.
To answer your questions, yes, I've gone over it all with my platform's technical staff and they concluded the problem is with my system, not their platform. I don't run anything else where the problem has occurred as far as a popup that won't close, but I have experienced the freezing outside of that program, which corrects within minutes.
I bought this unit months ago and until recently it has been trouble-free, and I've been on a Win10 learning curve (last computer ran XP, LOL), I used Black Viper's recommendations for shutting down unnecessary and dangerous services, and have followed other suggestions to prevent MS spying on me. I have also set things so Win10 does not automatically update but notifies me that an update is available and I then choose when to download and install it, so I don't think any updating is going on without my knowledge.
I find no option in the restore screen "show hidden updates". I do however find a "show additional restore points". Win10 does allow me to choose any restore point I wish, and have already gone back to several with no luck. In Security and Updates there is an "Update History" which I have looked into also but still no "show hidden updates" option.
I have my computer set to be disconnected from the internet until I manually tell it to connect.
So, I appreciate your suggestions but already been there, done that. I'm not planning a wipe and reload because I suspect this is a hardware problem, not a software one.
Again, thanks for the ideas. I hope someone like PMSWitch will chime in, too. . .
Newly
Seeking some help from a Geek here.
Every day with my trading platform open, I get a popup when the opening bell rings. This popup normally could be X'd off, but now it stays on screen and will not go away until I close and reopen the platform program through Task Manager. When this popup is on screen, I still get price data blinking on the platform but cannot access anything with the cursor. I am also experiencing system-wide freezing which clears in a minute or so.
This began after downloading KB3200970 and KB3202790 but not sure if that was the cause. I uninstalled them both but problem persists. Tried doing a recover to several earlier points, but this computer will not do a restore/recover to any earlier point -- it tries then says it didn't change any settings because it could not access a file, whatever that means.
Looking at the Event Log I find Error 153 and the message "The IO operation at logical block address 0x648b10 for Disk 0 (PDO name:\Device 00000034) was retried". I'm no geek, but I surmise this means I have a harddrive problem, but cannot tell how to fix it. I hesitate to do a complete Win10 reload because I am unsure if my problem is with software or hardware.
Any help here would be appreciated. . .TIA
Newly
I've been having computer problems (freezing, popups that won't close, etc.) since downloading and installing KB3202790 for Win10. Anyone else having problems with this update?
Newly
After three long green candles (not quite Three White Soldiers) on rising volume, SPY forming a long-legged doji on lower volume on the Daily (touching upper BB, right at S/R, RSI-5 OB and RSI-14 nearly OB) with its tail sitting just above the 50dma. Still two hours for it to morph into a Hanging Man. . .or something else.
Newly
Actually I agree with that! I've often said to confused friends that if they would just listen down inside themselves the right answer is always there. Surprisingly most people never stop the noise long enough to find it.
Newly
Congrats on reconnecting with your first love. A neighbor's divorced daughter did the same thing: her recently widowed (now 73-yr-old) high school boyfriend showed up at her door one day a few years ago, and they are now happily married. Amazing how many turn back to their first loves and are able to reconnect after a lifetime apart.
Absolutely one can lose one's shirt selling naked puts, no question (limited potential gain, unlimited potential loss) which is why so many traders prefer doing spreads. Personally, I'm very conservative and prefer the lower-risk/lower-profit scenario, and yes, I sleep well at night!
As to the current election, I find it a bit pitiful that these two candidates are the best America can put forth for the highest office in the land. Does not bode well for the future of our country. . .
Newly
You know, 3 different people can watch the same scene and come away with 3 different ideas of what occurred, which is why eye-witness accounts are not to be trusted. In our world it is difficult to tell the propaganda from the truth. One cannot trust what one is told, and not even what one sees with one's own eyes.
Makes it difficult to do the right thing if one is unsure what the right thing is.
Newly
Be careful what you wish for, Lee.
Newly
I see 5 of your posts made today, Lee. Did you accidentally put yourself on Ignore?
Newly
Lee, you are giving me nightmares!
The same thought crossed my mind after watching the debate. Scary thought, and, yes, Trump does appear capable of that since he is a very determined man (just look at that bulldog face!) and accustomed to getting his own way! One can plainly see he really believes the majority of Americans want him as Pres, and if the election results show otherwise, he will truly believe the vote was rigged, justifying action on his part, and he is probably quite capable of bringing down our democracy by whatever means to achieve his desired result!
You might recall that the Cuban revolution started when the election results went against the incumbent who then refused to yield the office to the newly-elected politician. Sort of the opposite of the Trump situation, but the same violation of the principle of peaceful transfer of power so necessary to sustaining a democracy. And we all know how the Cuban situation ended.
One last thought. America, has always been the country of final refuge. Should a revolution occur here, where will our refugees be welcomed? We, in essence, have nowhere to run. . .
Newly
Hi, Hap. Nice to see you here. Where in CA are you living now? I'm in Orange County, Laguna Beach.
I like your option trading strategy. There are just so many possibilities when trading options, and lots of ways to create low-risk trades. Wish there was a "no-risk" formula, but if there is I haven't found it yet, LOL.
Good to hear you are still trading. Funny, but you might remember Zeev never traded options and advised others not to as well. Most people are frightened off them (I was for years) because of the statistics showing most options expired worthless. Well, what they don't tell you is those are the options actually held to expiry, and most are not held that long. I can't remember the last time I actually bought an option -- I only sell them, and selling naked puts is my favorite play.
Cheers, Newly
Totally agree with what you said in that post you referenced. IMO this market rise is due to the fact that there is no where else to put money to get a decent return. People are taking on more risk to achieve any return at all. Dangerous, and, as you say, it is all going to end badly, very badly.
Of course, low interest rates are meant to encourage businesses to borrow but that isn't happening now and at these rates, who is willing to invest money in anything that is interest rate dependent. The govt can't raise rates without causing the interest on the trillions the govt owes becoming unmanageable. Of course, sooner or later it'll all come home to roost. Anyway, hopefully I'll probably be long dead by then, LOL.
Selling Puts is my favorite play, Lee, but I pretty much stick to daytrading these days. Looks like we are in a slow-motion decline currently. I trade short-term SPY options almost exclusively now. One of my favorite plays is to sell a weekly Put or Call for pennies on Wed with a way OTM strike and let it expire on Friday. Doing this is fairly low-risk and in volume can be profitable. . .
Newly
Hey, tinner. Guess some of the old gang are still around, eh?! I did that cross-country trip for 8 months in my campervan back in '08, but since then I generally only go camping in April and October, usually up in Oregon/Washington/Utah/Montana (I live in California). I'm still trading daily, though no longer bother to post trades as I used to do on Zeev's thread. What are you up to? Still trading?
Newly
Hey, Lee, how's it hangin'? Don't you get bored (lonely?) hanging out here all alone? Where'd everybody go? Looks like maybe social media is taking a bite out of Ihub postings?! Not many of the old gang still around it seems. . . I don't post much myself anymore.
Hope all is well with you and yours. For me, I've been trading only SPY options, intraday usually. They've now added a Wednesday opex to the weekly Friday opex, but I don't trade it -- one per week is quite enough, LOL. You still trading futures?
Newly
Interesting! The best trader I've ever known was Zeev Hed (may he R.I.P.), and he also relied heavily upon COT data in his highly successful S-T trading system. I looked into it once long, long ago. Suppose I should familiarize myself with its applicability to S-T trading of options as you appear to do very well utilizing it within your system. Always looking for good ideas to improve my exiting trading system. . .
Yup. My first computer, the AT, was long before Windows was even a glint in Billy's eye, so one often had to work in DOS, and a working knowledge of DOS still comes in handy nowadays when I sometimes choose to work directly in DOS to correct a problem.
I originally loaded DB3 (database program) on my first computer, the IBM AT back around '86. I was able to port it over to my Win95 and the 3 WinXP computers over the years. As I recall, I did it by copying the program directly from DOS on the old computer, then creating a directory in DOS on the newer computer and pasting the files there, then running the program in a DOS window in compatibility mode. Once it was running in the newer computer, I could print from it to the newer printer without problem. It's been a number of years ago now, but I believe that was how I did it. I no longer use that program so did not try to install it on the Win10 laptop.
What crap! When the power supply on my Sony w/XP died, I had to pay $200 for a replacement from them because the available generics would not fit in the case. Total ripoff as a ps could be had for $25! Realized then that the only way to get a computer with top notch components was to build it oneself. Still feel that way so I bought a cheap laptop that is cheaply replaced when something goes wrong or it is outdated.
I also recently gave up on XP (trading platform and other programs no longer supported) and bought a very, VERY cheap Win10 laptop. Like you, I disabled everything possible (per BlackViper's recommendations) and just for good measure I keep no personal files on it, but rather on a thumb drive I plug in when I need those files -- not sure if that helps prevent snooping or not, but makes me feel safer, LOL. Considered switching to an Apple but hate to begin a new learning curve. Win10 laptop w/the docking station works fine so far.
Like you, I recently dumped all my old computers: an AT from 1986 w/daisywheel printer, a Sony Win95 and a Sony WinXP, all still working. Took out the HDs first. . . Still have an XP machine I built plus an XP laptop and now this Win10 laptop. . .
As stated previously, one may Sell on or after the Ex-Div date and still receive the dividend, but one must Buy the stock before the Ex-Div date. Note, however, that the price of the stock will usually adjust downwards on the Ex-Div date by the amount of the dividend, so there is no gain to be had by buying before Ex-Div and selling immediately on Ex-Div unless the stock price is rising sufficiently.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=124165449
Newly
Well, one can always fall back upon the old adage that God takes care of idiots, drunks and little children, but unless you fall into one of those categories it may be time to abandon all hope. . .or not.
I tend to be a bear by nature, but fight that instinct as I find preconceived notions do not help when analyzing charts, so, no, unfortunately I really cannot offer you any succor other than to say that downdrafts tend to move more swiftly than up moves and a reversal is inevitable at some point, and even without a specific catalyst the market has been known to drop of its own weight, so. . .if you have the time and patience. . .
really not seeing a preponderance of evidence to sustain the trade I'm in, other than the eve star , the upper bb touch, and oscillators being Max OB.
Add to that volume has been generally declining over the past 12 months, and since the February bottom the candles' real bodies are mostly smaller, indicating a tighter trading range. So, the question is, are your reasons for entering this trade negated or still in effect and is the time left to expiry sufficient to accommodate the move you anticipated?
Agree on oscillators -- they offer confirmation of other things to some extent, but can remain OB or OS for a very long time. I haven't looked at your 9 and 27 EMAs, but do watch the 105 EMA intraday which seems to align well with horizontal S/R and that provided by the candles. . .
I must say, I admire your guts in trading such long timeframes. I find it difficult to determine market direction in the less-than-Daily timeframes I trade, nevermind doing it on the Weekly or Monthly.
TA has many aspects, but none guarantees the outcome. We each take what speaks to us individually and mold it into a 'system' that can paint at a glance a consistent and compelling picture of where the market is likely to go.
I often hear you mention BBs, so obviously they 'speak' to you, and you apparently trust and adhere to your trading system through thick and thin, which is the mark of a successful trader. Over the years I have minimized my system to rely mainly on S/R points, candles and volume, confirmed with CCI, and a few MA's. But I am always looking to improve my system as the market changes, so I have recently begun to consider more closely where the BBs are relative to price, due to your stated reliance upon them (thank you).
I sure couldn't trade without TA. . .
The high point of an ES also is considered Resistance, and the high of that doji is 219.60, an ATH. I would prefer not to see the third candle moving above that R, but as long as the reversal down occurs and the real body moves deeply into the real body of that first candle, the formation is not negated by the upper shadow making a new ATH.
The wick being above the previous candle
IMO, no effect, but third candle must reverse and intrude deeply into the white body of that first candle for the ES to complete. Plenty of time for that.
When I first began trading options 10 or 12 years ago, everyone warned me about selling naked Puts. That is now my favorite trade. When I sell a Put to hold for expiry, I generally try to chose a strike with at least one and preferably two support points above between the chosen strike and the current price of the underlying (I'll take the strike just below the second support provided the premium is reasonable vs risk). I also check the recent average daily price range to ensure price is unlikely to move sufficiently to reach my strike within the allotted time.
When a trade goes against me I generally will cover some of the position for a loss and let the rest be exercised and the shares put to me -- I can generally hang onto them selling covered calls against the position until I'm able to sell them at a profit and so recoup my loss at a later date. Of course, the best laid schemes o' mice an' men gang aft agle (he says it so much better than I could) and there are never any guarantees. As we all know, risk is part of every trade and all traders must take some losses sometimes.
I prefer selling to buying options because selling gives the trader a far greater chance of having a successful trade. A buyer of an option only wins if price moves in the desired direction in an amount equal to or better than the amount he paid to buy the option, but a seller wins if price moves in the opposite direction (against the buyer) or remains flat. So, what is more desirable, a 33% chance of a winning trade, or a 66% chance? Think about it. . .
Newly
Depending on one's broker, high-volume traders can negotiate a flat fee in preference to per trade fees.
Newly