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It will definitely be interesting when they begin to ship out of Fab 2, especially if on the timeline they targeted.
I'm afraid he may not opine positively. You know he doesn't recommend stocks that aren't making money? Also, as you say, market cap may not be big enough. If he really did intensive research, I believe he would come out with a positive recommendation. If anything, that would give us a short term pop. Better to rely on the new executives executing what seems like a very workable strategy.
I am not thinking that far ahead. ENVX batteries seem to have the edge in energy density in the smaller form factors. As they have said many times before; that's why they want to start in wearables and phones. Their margins are higher there also.
Yes, not a very active board. IMO, right now ENVX is a lottery ticket. Even if Fab2 works out as hoped, it will be only able to produce 9 M batteries. To be successful, they need to produce hundreds of millions. This would require current battery companies to license ENVX's technology, consumer device makers to fund battery lines and or partner with ENVX. That's a lot of "ifs". ENVX is my smallest investment and I watch it closely. They must continue to hit the milestones they set for themselves. I trust in TJ Rodgers to help them scale and avoid pitfalls but this will not happen overnight IMO.
The energy density advantage ENVX purports to have on smaller form factors can be seen on ENVX prior slide decks. The recent news about them addressing EVs is on the most recent conference call (can get a transcript on Seeking Alpha). The 80% charge in 5 minutes is also on prior press releases on ENVX website, or you can google that info.
Seems on the last conference call ENVX is going to target the EV sector sooner than later. TM's solid state battery is being pushed out on the timeline. Prior releases said TM would start production in 2027. Now 2027-2028. Remains to be seen who will have the advantage. ENVX has claimed 80% charge in 5 minutes. It seems that the new solid state battery has the advantage in energy density as ENVXs battery has a bigger advantage in the small form factors. However, ENVX will start production in 2024 for the small cells.
https://us02web.zoom.us/rec/play/8LuDNA4gvw9rySzh-Jq5hf2dN49r88m2nCZKTtexSjouqZawLCRgGbt1nh2P-tNaDJ8j8tVxOnNrHuwr.3HIH8zEi2s3oRXPY?hasValidToken=false&canPlayFromShare=true&from=share_recording_detail&continueMode=true&componentName=rec-play&originRequestUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fus02web.zoom.us%2Frec%2Fshare%2FgCZkGrUNe9KDQBYnXVInZRNMQ_onwfkLvCsWsFWLIoqOGkGOd6_pmcEGuJ6Lm-t4.fzvS7nm7wh5uvXdd They seem on track with the new sales personnel. I'm looking for a pretty good bump in revenues this next quarter as the new sales team pick the low hanging fruit from the hospitals that we are already in for burns. Soft tissue wounds should be a no brainer for them.
1 Billion shelf offering. Not sure if it replaces a prior shelf or is a totally new one.
I don't mind the higher expense since I view it as an investment in the future. Sales people can reach the 20+ kit sales in as little as 3-4 months. This ramp should really ramp once we get the automated system out in the field. That RCEL GO system greatly expands the target customers from mainly hospitals down to the clinic level.
Up until today ENVX has been essentially a pre-revenue company. Fab 1 was created to provide prototype batteries to consumer wearable companies. This has resulted in design wins. Most recently they have been chosen by the DOD Army to power soldier's needs. This is an actual order. Today they announced general availabilty of their battery. This means they are ready to sell. Fab 2 is being built in Malaysia and includes over 100 improvements based on learnings from Fab1. A Fab 2 line will be capable of up to 13xs the throughput of Fab 1.
https://ih.advfn.com/stock-market/NASDAQ/enovix-ENVX/stock-news/91592944/enovix-announces-general-availability-of-its-stand
Wasn't this a know submission? I believe RCEL gave a timeline of approval of the new automated device in January 2024.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3983112-enovix-surges-on-us-army-battery-cell-order Further evidence that ENVX has a battery that works.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enovix-achieves-quarterly-milestone-early-200100493.html Another target met. All we can ask for at this time is to see progress and promises kept.
I for one appreciate the granularity the CEO gave investors. The FDA works on approvals. Their job is not to update investors. The executives of Avita have that job. For me it's another factoid, to measure the CEO on. If his timeline is met, I'll be more confident in his forecasts. If he is wildly wrong, I will question further alerts. Looks to me like they are looking to ramp sales as fast as they can.
https://ir.avitamedical.com/news-releases/news-release-details/avita-medical-announces-update-automation-device
More good news. Less training of end user medical staff and easier to use. Has to help in the sales effort imo and not too far out. Submission midyear with fast track will be available early 2024.
If I had to posit a guess, I would say a fund buying in. If they bought enough they will have to file a S-4 and we will know shortly. The twin catalysts of FDA approvals for soft tissue and vitiligo are fast approaching.
More progress at Fab1 updates and orders placed for Fab2 equipment. Things are progressing as per plan.
https://ir.enovix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enovix-issues-purchase-orders-agility-line-and-completes-gen2
https://ir.enovix.com/news-releases/news-release-details/enovix-announces-manufacturing-partner-and-location-fab-2
Good news, partnering with a company that's making a significant financial commitment to the building of Fab2. ENVX making all the right moves. Could be the reason TJ Rodgers added about 500,000 shares lately. He's in over a 14 B stake, so definitely putting his money where his mouth is. ENVX up over 33% in the last month. There is a gap fill to $18 waiting to be filled. Now if we could get a licensing deal with someone like Samsung.
ENVX will need to produces hundreds of millions of batteries. What they are doing with Fab 1 is producing batteries for consumer products companies to test and design into their next generation consumer products. The production from Fab1 is paltry. It is a proof of concept for ENVX's technolgy Fab. Fab 2 is about 9xs more productive but it's output is also paltry compared to the demand. It is a prototype line for other battery companies to adapt their own lines to produce under royalty or the consumer product's companies to build their own lines. If you are waiting for ENVX to build enough capacity to power even one product of a major consumer product we will be waiting a long time. This stock will explode upon the news of a major battery company licensing ENVX's technology. Someone like Samsung would be ideal. ENVX is working with Samsung. Even better would be for AAPL to sign on a licensing deal, since they are becoming more and more vertically integrated.
Today TJ added another 102,599 shares @$11.57. Brings his position to 21,774,826 shares.
From 3/15 to 3/20 Chairman TJ Rodgers filed four s-4s indicating purchases of nearly 130,000 shares on the 15th, 34,899 on the 16th, 98,700 on the 17 th and 69,577 on the 20th. They say that there are many reasons to sell, but usually only one reason to buy (to make money). Not sure if news is coming down the road soon (why the buying now?) or general optimism by someone in the position to know.
I have 2/23 after hours.
For me, I'd like to see an increase in sales growth from the 30% area to over 50%. Hopefully Japan ramps.
Some highlights:
Summary
Avita has a modest existing business selling its skin regeneration products.
Its shares have dropped recently despite several successes with the FDA.
Avita's near term catalysts offer sterling prospects for recovery to former highs and beyond.
While Avita has a nice potential upside it also has significant risks.
When sales and marketing expenses go up while gross profits are declining, as they did on a nine month basis, it sends a rude message
Despite its share price drops, the FDA has generally responded favorably to Avita's RECELL device
Avita's planned FDA applications for soft tissue repair and vitiligo are important near term catalysts.
Soft tissue reimbursement is already set. For vitiligo Avita targets it to take until 01/2025 to work out an acceptable reimbursement program.
He went to a burn center enhancing the chance that they have been trained in RCEL.
Automatic devices are the way to go imo. It relieves the some of the "friction" of the sales process. If all the health providers have to do is place the tissue sample into the device (which they already know how to do from prior art of mesh skin applications) and turn it on, retrieve the solution and spray it on, I believe adoption would accelerate exponentially.
Going provider to provider and seeding the medical centers with trained doctors and having them teach their peers is a slow slog. Anything that eliminates some or all of that friction is of paramount importance.
I own a bit of another medical device company TMDX. Similar to Avita in its dominance of it's field (though not nearly the TAM of RCEL). She too languished until the executives guided to 68-80% yoy growth. IMO until Avita's numbers reflect the promise of her technology she likely will continue to drift. When she does put up the numbers in line with her potential, she will shoot up. Til then she is a hostage to news cycles on progress with the FDA and or Japan.