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In our area, building code calls for heat pumps when people are replacing their HVAC system or building new. It's great for noise reduction and very efficient according to neighbors that have recent installations. Most of the brands I have seen are Japanese or Korean.
CVX/PDVSA - US right wing press birthing a cow about oil from Maduro. So I suppose that it's OK for US to get oil from a country (Saudi Arabia) that openly disdains us while using our coastal resorts as their princes' playground.
https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/bidens-venezuela-oil-dealings-dumb-and-dumber/
About the same level of investment in renewable biofuels as US majors not aggressively pursuing energy transition.
CVX/XOM/etc. - Interesting article about Scottish sector of North Sea transition to wind. 8/9 workers from oil industry. As for revenues and gross margins, project generates about same amount of rev as an oil field that produces 14,000 BODP with capital cost of ~180K/bbl. The last big oil M&A CVX/NBL was around ~90K/BBL with WTI ~$60. Operating margin for Beatrice wind project is ~50%. Latest generation tech will lower prices to ~6 cents/kwh from ~8 cents/kwh.. For simplicity used pound sterling for UK numbers - no idea where exchange rate will end up given the way Brexit has affected economy. Nevertheless, given the trends of the numbers, I anticipate that US majors will have to change their tune about not getting into offshore wind farms particularly with west coast rights being auctioned off in near future.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/27/business/scotland-wind-farms-offshore.html
CVX - The expectation as I mentioned months ago post invasion of Ukraine. Moshiri has the most realistic perspective on what's possible wrt production ramp.
Neither did the people that did the foundational work. A very young cousin started programming for the group when in his teens and was paid in ether. A few years later, he told us it may be worth "something". That was his stake for starting the company he owns now. De-centralized finance, what's that?
IMO NYT coverage is very pertinent as it reveals what SA plans to do in response to economic disruptions, contrary to past practice when oil prices are allowed to decline. They and OPEC+ will restrict downside volatility and they have the steering wheel now with US shale productivity leveling off. This window will last until PDVSA capacity comes back on line and some additional influx potential from Guyana and Argentina-shale.
ETH - my first toe size entry into it today 5.54. I suspect it has downside volatility remaining.
SA/Aramco - fighting hard to extend fossil fuel usage while switching their own usage to cheaper renewables via solar panels.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/21/climate/saudi-arabia-aramco-oil-solar-climate.html
AFMD - poster out yesterday. Of the 3 patients evaluated, one dropped out after first infusion due to grade 2 IRR. The 4th patient's data didn't make abstract deadline. Still early and small N, encouraging nonetheless. NKGen needs to step up their game on the SNK01-AFM24 combo trial they are running - slow going.
https://www.affimed.com/wp-content/uploads/SITC-2022_AFM24-102-poster-submission-version-1.pdf
Not just him, GC, CFO, EVP. They like to sell high!
PLTR - Q3 slides. US chugging along, EU not so hot.
https://investors.palantir.com/files/Palantir%20Business%20Update%20-%20Q3%202022.pdf
AFMD SITC poster to be presented - AFM24/Atezo combo shows signs of activity in solid tumors (EGRF+) at safety dose of 160 mg. RP2D is 480 mg. N=4 for safety dose Three have been evaluated. 1-PR 1-SD 1-PD, no safety signals.
https://www.affimed.com/affimed-provides-data-update-from-two-phase-1-2a-trials-with-its-innate-cell-engager-afm24-in-solid-tumor-patients-at-the-37th-sitc-annual-meeting/
Your ~2K for precomplexed afm13-cbNK is in agreement with company estimate on cHL. Pricing is same as CAR-T initially according to company per discussion with coverage specialists last year. Each billion cell dose current manufacturing cost is $1300 for cbNK portion. Don't have cost data on afm13 yet. In MDACC run trial, each patient at rp2d is getting around ~7B cells per cycle.
No. They need to prove that new partner, Artiva cbNK cells, works like MDACC cbNK. Artiva collaboration was announced 2 years ago and it was Sept that they had sufficient data to close the deal. FDA 2nd mtg beginning of year and IND filing after that.
The ~6000 initial market includes AFM13 mono and combo with PD-1. ~2000 r/r HL would be addressable with AFM13-cbNK.
What do you think would be more realistic if above are not IYO?
Stats on prior lines provided at the bottom of the abstract 30/30 Adcetris, 29/30 PD-1, 2/30 CAR-T 21/30 HSCT. Desperate group as you noted. Company estimates the initial cd30 R/R market ~6000. The bigger TAM is moving up lines.
~1500 PTCL
~2000 HL
~2500 DLBCL
AFMD/MDACC - precomplexed afm13-cbNK looks durable and they announced Artiva as NK cell partner for cbNK sourcing.
https://ash.confex.com/ash/2022/webprogram/Paper156125.html
CC regarding updates
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/e4h8dfw3
ABUS - thoughts on 729 data?
TSLA/F/MBLY - It will get there and TSLA is ahead of F based upon the F comments that they are still focusing on L2/3. Enhanced AP in tesla's does L2 competently based on my experience. FSD does a lot of the L3 described in the SAE table - I just don't know how consistently well and personally I won't trust it without Lidar. All the people I know that drive Tesla's only used those features when driving highways and perhaps play around with FSD when traffic is light. I don't know how many years it took computers to become better than the abacus and slide rules but it didn't take decades. If AI progress is correlated to the amount of data gathered, then TSLA and MBLY are leading the pack. Presumably, the Chinese EV makers will have the most data. For now FSD is marketing hype and I wonder when people will start asking for refunds or credit towards future purchases until such time that FSD functions as marketed.
PS. just saw a RIVN R1S charging at a neighbor's driveway. Looks like a large Range Rover except nicer with lux interior. IMO this thing will compete. Not so sure about the EQS. Saw a couple of those recently with their light bars (copied from Cybertruck) that I thought looked weird on a Mercedes.
CVX - At first glance I was suspicious of the downstream OPEX of half a $B - since there hasn't been much going on since Richmond upgrade several yrs ago. It is. The Pasadena refinery will be expanded to 125K bbls a day to accommodate Permian basin production. When it was bought from PBR in 2019, there was plans to sunset and convert that to something else. It's a little grey about how much of that is CapEx vs Opex.
https://www.chevron.com/newsroom/2022/q3/light-tight-oil-project-pasadenas-vote-of-confidence
Disassembly to individual components as much as possible without damage. And itemizing component material, tooling and labor costs.
TM - completely revamping their EV program after tear down of latest model Y. They finally realize they are deep in the mud. TSLA customers in China that already own 3 and Y are upset that prices are being lowered on both. Margins are high enough that tesla can do that. Now both will qualify for EV incentives that are meager compared to EU and NA.
EV/Level3 - VCSEL solid state Lidar will probably take over the sensor (aside from cameras) market for cars and trucks. Projected cost taking a dive and already under $1K. Cant get to automated driving without it. There are multiple sources for VCSELs. Below is just an example.
https://www.lumentum.com/en/media-room/videos/high-performance-multi-junction-vcsel-arrays-direct-time-flight-lidar
Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. Sold all today.
Gravity is hard to defeat and I doubt $10B price tag for Manhattan has any basis in reality. When XOM puts a price tag on what it will cost to dike Gulf Coast refineries like BayTown, then we will get an idea of the magnitude of the costs before steel and concrete.
Their thinking that they can inhouse both software and hardware for Robotaxi's must not be working out. Car makers must want a PC like ecosystem so they can pick and choose what they want and write their own UX. TSLA would be the exception and do everything themselves except chip making. INTC will end up competing with TSM, not a pretty vision.
I don't think the 1/6 rioters have any sense of humor. They probably take all reality shows seriously even knowing that they are scripted. We will see whether CVX current execs have a sense of humor and handle this as they spend a lot resources and many PR years cultivating an image of "people" power and social responsibility. McKay's video is funny if you are not Chevron employed.
CVX - Commercial made by Oscar winner going viral. Ouch.
Range claims are dubious. Impressive price point nonetheless.
I attended a city sponsored mtg that discussed new affordable housing regulations and the state encouraging homeowners to build ADU's, looks like 50%+ of the ADUs will require ceiling fire sprinklers and solar panels. Some will require caissons depending on geological surveys and earthquake shear walls. Lumber and materials are relatively minor relative to the increase in labor costs. The simplest projects will be $400/sqft according to builder at mtg.
There doesn't seem to be a universal definition. IMO there needs to be. For example "under X hours to charge from 20%-80%". Otherwise any outlet within reach of an EV would be an "unit". Also, not many in China have their own garages.
What's the Chinese definition of a "charging unit"? I haven't checked.
China's EV market penetration - Original goal was 20% by 2025. "They will fly by that this year."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/china-electric-vehicles.html
Anybody working on that?
RSV - Got a promotional email from CVS recruiting people for P3 trial of MVA-BN-RSV. I am not signing up but hadn't realized that we are getting close to an approval product. Dew - how are you handicapping this space? This trial had N=20k.
"FSD" is more like "FBS" right now. Going into it, I thought her area would be a good app for FSD. Big wide roads, well marked, relatively light traffic compared to big metro areas. IMO probably have to wait for a couple more generations of car chipsets in addition to dojo to have a functional FSD. And it needs to proven with Formula E races that have no drivers and no geofencing.
I am just guessing but IMO the things that concerned her requires edge AI, cloud AI would not be fast enough because of latency and really not built for edge situations.
TSLA - My sister finally qualified to be a beta tester for FSD several weeks ago. After some manual interventions including 2 near collisions and instances where other drivers became mad with her "driving", she has now disabled FSD beta. She is back to using autopilot without navigation.
Congrats.