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TM/TSLA - California market share report. BEV in NorCal is around the same as China. SoCal lagging about 5% behind @ 20.9%. But I think the trend is clear, TSLA will overtake TM in CA market share soon. No rest for those that are slow and weary.
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-2Q-23_FINAL.pdf
OpenAI/GOOG/MSFT - Bilingual Japanese journalists evaluation of translations from 4 LLM's. BTW - since reveal of the hack of msft's cloud, Windows startup now include Gdrive on taskbar. Still getting Windows patches for updates as of a couple of days ago.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/life/2023/07/18/language/japanese-english-ai-translation
It's really not that hard. It's about gas properties. their refraction indices and simple thermodynamics.
https://www.academia.edu/33161453/The_Properties_of_Gases_and_Liquids_4th_Edition_R_C_Reid_J_M_Prausnitz_and_B_E_Poling_
Serious climatologists better start thinking about permafrost and gas hydrates. If recollection serves, there are gigatons of gas sequestered. Not all of it will be affected by warming climate and melting permafrost. But they are starting to see increasing frequency of gas blowouts in Siberia and Canada. This is not good.
https://www.wired.com/story/the-arctic-is-a-freezer-thats-losing-power
XOM-DEN good fit for their CCS campaign and EOR. Especially if they can get the process work better in shale.
Although the cost gradients are now strongly in favor of renewables especially in places lacking power infrastructure, it probably won't be fast enough to stop the positive feedback loop of warming causing release of sequestered CO2(ie forests, permafrost, ocean). Removing enough CO2 from the atmosphere will probably require engineering solutions. Some younger generation folks are starting to guess that we're screwed so just party on and hope for the best.
ZERO ~ percentage for hybrid market share in 10-15 yrs from now.
Not sure if "they" refers to the whole group, ie researchers AND investors. My guess is that the investors got it wrong since they dumped money into these academic type programs and didn't stop until it was overcrowded. Were both groups overdriven by the "Cancer Moonshot" initiative?
The ICE component In PHEV is the significant portion of the HP so it dictates the cycle time requirement. Same for HEV. If the hEV portion is the bottleneck in development than that would dictate cycle time. Since there is more complexity in HEV and PHEV compared to pure ICE or BEV, I won't be surprise if cycle time of combined power train is longer than either pure ICE or BEV. There is one model out there that has this flipped, the mx-30 that is suppose to use ICE purely as the range extender and having the EV portion as the main power/range engine. The EV only has a range of 100 mi and not competitive. It will be interesting to see what happens with the range extender engine but that portion is the bottleneck as the EV car has been out in the market a couple of years.
That's fairly consistent for ICE models in US, EU and Japan. China EV development cycle seems to be half of that but then batteries are off the shelf via CATL and BYD. There are now hundreds of EV models in China and a bunch of companies that China.ccp wants to stay afloat. TM cut BZ4x to 20K from 29K USD in china and still not selling. Audi doing almost similar % discount to move their lux EV,
Car generation using industry standard would be one development cycle so 6-7 years. I don't see new generations HEV or PHEV (or ICE for that matter) coming. New stuff coming out now meant the tooling was in the works for the last ~3 yrs.
There is no question that a world synchronized on going to PHEV first before going full tilt BEV is theatrically a faster pathway to lower emissions. In the real world individual utility and car companies dictate consumption and production. PHEV and BEV will continue to sell out but IMO PHEV will have a one generation window and it's all over. Brown bananas are cheap for a reason. But in the car world, brown bananas ain't that much cheaper compared than bananas that have longer than usual shelf life at mid-priced levels.
They raised 325M in the last few years.
Door slammed on Tessa CAR-T. Shut down announced due to lack of financing or buyout interest. They had AUTO program in clinic and working on ALLO.
https://endpts.com/singapore-cancer-cell-therapy-startup-tessa-therapeutics-to-shut-down/
In the first ten minutes, the speaker used hypothetical examples of binary changes, IE we pretend that we can actually flip switches to go 100% EVs. I admit I don't have patience for such theoretical constructs. We have facts on the ground . What is the LCOS of solar and wind, vs fossil fuels? The energy costs gradient are so strong that 100% for passenger cars adoption is guaranteed, The only question is timing of the economics of the remaining infrastructure to deliver the adoption. We need more TED talks on that. A few years go, I offered my guess of ~11 years to get to >80% EV market share if recollection serves. IMO what may have looked crazy is looking reasonable. The lowest cost coal is produced in Australia so pls go see how competitive coal is currently there. I haven't visited EIA and IEA latest's forecasts in months. I am sure a 3 year old TED talk on energy trends and usage could use updating.
Wow 3 thumbs up so I had to watch. You guys actually think the Carnot cycle (theoretical maximum efficiency of heat engines) is something that can be argued away with some qualitative TED presentation with no data references. Here is a data point for you, solar + wind > coal generated power this year in the US and we aren't looking back. Cute british accent though.
PLTR/Sompo Insurance Path stiill not working for others. Here are a couple of links. First is youtube video from when the project was being tested at first facility. Latest article from FT about the product being adopted at the next 100 facilities and further sales nationwide.
Not sure why the link works for me but not others. Here is another path.
https://archive.fo/https://www.ft.com/content/e0bef42f-ee00-4ad7-8604-ae672251e8d5
PLTR - Digitizing assisted-living/nursing home care in Japan.
https://archive.ph/R5Vh0
Someone posted a summary for a group of companies including nktx.
Tough 2023 ytd for smid-cap CAR-T/NK (-27% med/-15% mean)🔴vs. XBI (0.1%) 🟢
— BiopharmIQ by Amp (@BiopharmIQ) June 27, 2023
Tough day/yr for allogeneic ("off-the-shelf") CAR-T/NK👎
• $NKTX -42% (-53% ytd) despite reporting "encouraging" activity
• $ACET -52% (-76% ytd) despite reporting "Positive Data"
• $FATE +2% (-50%… pic.twitter.com/wOdsfuxCjR
Is it NK specific or cell therapy in general that's getting the door slams?
The one obvious case I think of was Huawei copying everything Cisco had in IP down to some of the source code. And all of the knowhow to make optimal communications components were done in a few years. Even if the CCP wasn't involved directly, there is no cultural respect for IP nor the respect for lawyers. Just another manifestation of high end luxury copies/fakes. And now the CCP is killing off the innovative part of their eco system.
IMO you to think of a better example than KFC, something with techology IP There is nothing special about making fried chicken or fast food in China or Asia as a whole.
Mojo/OpenAI/GOOG/MSFT - How low-level (machine language) developers thinks about programming in the age of AI or "we ain't close yet".
https://www.modular.com/blog/do-llms-eliminate-the-need-for-programming-languages
IMO it's not a one way street, China car makers gained some IP on EV mechanics and battery management, Musk gained some insights on manufacturing practices and applied those to US factories by bringing over Shanghai people to revamp processes over here.
I was reading the other headline near the bottom of the article. IE Mark Mobius cannot withdraw his money from HSBC Shanghai. IMO Musk decided long ago to focus on software and where the long term value will be. That will not be open sourced. EVs mechanics is really simple compared to ICE.
I was long IIVI, TSLA, MTOR, INTC (MBLY).
TM- IMO they are planning to go with high voltage (800V or higher) architecture. Only reason to think of growing their own SiC ingots. Having a Japanese source makes more sense than doing commodity product inhouse. I'm trying to think positive about what they can achieve realistically but their time line for volume adoption is too conservative. But at least SiC wafer supply won't be an issue like SS battery.
SHEL - Raizen project looks scalable like Australia energy. Where is the projected delta in cap spending coming from?
TM - SiC Sourcing likely to come from Mitsubishi.
https://www.coherent.com/content/dam/coherent/site/en/documents/investors/investor-presentations/2023/may-30/mitsubishi-mou-summary-slides.pdf
TM - BZ4X (Subaru Solterra is 4wd variant). Norway ran range tests on most models sold there. BZ had one of the worst range degradation in its price range. Sales of the 2 makes combined around 1200/month. Below Norway test tabulation in first link. Second link car and driver review.
https://insideevs.com/news/650501/tesla-model-s-aces-winter-range-test-in-norway-beats-28-other-evs/
https://www.caranddriver.com/toyota/bz4x
My usage of EV is restricted to 100%E in other words BEV. Reason is being shown in the EU market now where HEVs sales are getting killed by BEVs.
The 3 biggest foreign markets for TM are the US, China and EU. Their market share is going down fast in China, BEVs in EU are outselling HEV 10 to 1. The US is a couple of years behind China and EU. Yet TM tries to calm the market with "we know what we are doing memos" with obvious holes in their vision. Maybe they do know how to make money in ICE and HEV cars. Kodak and Nokia also made good money until substitutes hit volume production. I would be less skeptical if their current EV isn't such a bust in spec and sales. IMO US BEV market share will be pushing ~20% by YE 2024.
TM - yes I am highly skeptical that growing SiC 8" crystals is in their expertise. Do they know how long it took Cree to grow ingots successfully with sufficiently low defect. Cree and II-VI (now COHR) will be the sources in the end. And where is the experimental solid state battery cell data to back up their claims that they are even competitive with current developers? AND, they are still 100% committed to H2? IMO they will become a good short candidate. I am still awaiting their demo of BEV's with SS batteries that were suppose to be shuttling folks at the last summer Olympics.
TM - summary of EV "vision". So we are going to copy Tesla while doing solid state batteries and growing our own SiC ingots. Yeah, OK. AND just so we can get to second place maybe.
https://global.toyota/pages/news/images/2023/06/13/0500/electrified_technologies_batteries_en.pdf
OT - Some humorous pics from generative AI.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsbwNaxAuwx/?utm_source=ig_embed&utm_campaign=loading
IMO the biggest difference in EU vs US majors are commitment or lack of it on shale and buybacks/dividends. We shall see if SHEL's new CEO changes course but I doubt it. EU companies (bp,shel,tte) seems to remain viable long-term in the energy business as they divest out of oil. cvx, xom, cop is happy staying with legacy businesses and returning money to shareholders. I can't argue with the latter but they need to stop pretending they care about sustainability.
I suggest looking at each company's sustainability presentations for who is best ready to handle the shift to renewables. IMO CEO musical chair at cvx/shel/xom has minor influence on trajectory. The only serious pilot plant scale proofing ground currently is Shell Energy Australia. Everybody else is hoping for political interference and fakery like Gorgon carbon capture. Disappointingly, CVX moved CCS up their PR ladder this year while XOM continues to obfuscate their reduction in producing natural CO2 reservoirs for EOR operations as something worth crediting. I do like cvx belated increased focus on geothermal. Years after offloading all their Imperial Valley geothermal operations and properties to small operators who will now rake in the lithium revenues.
CVX/SHEL - to be generous, CVX and XOM "carbon capture" is the epitome of fake sustainability. Or "how we manage to produce 100 units of carbon and plan to bury 20 units and fail at that too".
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/gas-giant-s-3-2b-effort-to-bury-carbon-pollution-is-failing-20221113-p5bxtw.html
TM -Toyoda hybrid vs bev debate. We live in free market societies and capitalism dictates adoption based upon utilization at the individual level, not some societal good arguments. I think Toyoda's math is correct and many realize it. However, individual choice suggests people that can afford bev would rather not get stuck with the complexity of hybrids. IMO TM has a good chance to transition successfully but it will be painful for them. They have the biggest market share to lose and they are losing that share fast in the most profitable markets. Model Y is best selling car in the world for Q1 2023 and tsla is still ramping production.