You out there Aaron? Any comment?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/international-business/asian-pacific-business/foreign-investors-in-australian-farms-rash-or-prescient/article5454999/

CANBERRA/SYDNEY
Foreign investors in Australian farms: rash or prescient?

MAGGIE LU YUEYANG AND COLIN PACKHAM

Published Monday, Nov. 19, 2012 07:15PM EST

Last updated Monday, Nov. 19, 2012 07:18PM EST

For all the willing buyers seeking tracts of Australian farm land, local investors are not among them. They wonder what all the fuss is about.

Years of weak and volatile returns and some of the harshest weather on earth suggest a wave of foreign interest in Australia’s farms and agricultural assets is on a fool’s errand.

“Overseas investors are too dumb to realize that they are not going to make money out of Australia agriculture,” said David Leyonhjelm, an Australia-based agriculture consultant at Baron Strategic Services.

He may have a point.

Australian farms’ return on capital has seldom exceeded more than 2 per cent in a year on average during the past decade, excluding changes in land values, according to government research bureau ABARES. That is less than half the return on stocks and less than a third compared with bonds, figures from Russell Investments suggest.

Although farm returns are volatile anyway – owing to the vagaries of the weather – the unpredictability of Australian earnings is much greater than in the United States.

In the past 30 years, Australia’s net farm income has experienced annual drops of more than 40 per cent on five occasions compared to just once in the United States, data from ABARES and the U.S. Department of Agriculture shows.

Including capital appreciation, Australian farm returns have been outstripped by Africa and Brazil. Australian farm debt has risen some 8 per cent a year since 2001, almost double the pace of U.S. farm debt.

Even when it comes to the weather, Australia seems worse off.

It has the lowest and most variable rainfall patterns of any inhabited continent, due largely to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation climate pattern that periodically bakes much of the country in hot, dry weather and intersperses it with flooding rains.

“In recent history, Australia has seen more volatility in agricultural farm output than other major agricultural producers,” said Michael Creed, agribusiness economist at National Australia Bank. “In the past 20 years alone, we’ve had a drought that lasted a decade and when the drought broke, it broke in a massive way.”

Despite the weak and volatile returns, the explosion of the middle classes in Asia is attracting more offshore investors looking beyond immediate returns to an expected long-term surge in demand for high-quality food.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization says the world needs to boost food output by 70 per cent by 2050 to meet demand, a sobering statistic for highly populated countries such as China, where a major tenet of the Communist Party is guaranteeing food security for its 1.3 billion people.

Chinese investors have been involved in a number of high-profile farm deals, including the purchase of the country’s biggest cotton farm, the 1,000 sq. km. Cubbie Station.

Chinese entities are also in the running for a large dairy operation in Tasmania and a big irrigation project in Western Australia.

U.S firm Archer Daniels Midland last month made a $2.8-billion (U.S.) bid for Australia’s last major independent grain handling company, GrainCorp, spurring a 40-per-cent jump in its share price.

Australia lacks comprehensive data on foreign ownership but the government says the vast majority of farms are locally owned and that has not changed much over the past 30 years. But spurred by a number of high-profile foreign deals, the issue has become politically sensitive as the sector struggles to attract much-needed investment at home.

Despite local skepticism at the prospects for Australia’s farming sector, the increase in offshore interest comes at a time when returns have seldom been better and adds to other evidence suggesting the foreign investment may not be mistimed after all.

Helped by generous rains and strong global prices, Australian farmers may have enjoyed the best year in decades in 2011/12.

“For the first time in more than 30 years, all states and all industries are expected to record positive farm business profits and rates of return,” ABARES said in its 2011/12 annual crop and livestock farm performance report.

Average farm cash income jumped to A$117,300 ($122,000) in 2010/11 from just A$59,470 the previous year, it said. This year is forecast to remain a strong A$116,000 – almost 40 per cent above its real, long-term average.

GrainCorp, the target of Archer Daniels, last week posted a record profit of A$205-million, boosted by a bumper crop. It said the takeover bid failed to reflect the promise of the business.

Some analysts say a global rush for agricultural land is just beginning, driven by increasing concerns over long-term food and water security. With the availability of suitable farmland shrinking and productivity gains slowing when populations are growing and diets changing, supply/demand dynamics are likely to be favourable over the next 40 years, an ANZ report says.

Another study, by real estate company Savills, identifies Australia as having some of the lowest land costs for wheat production in the world and highlights the appreciation in farmland values since 2002.

Shandong Ruyi Group, which bought Cubbie Station, is taking the long view, company adviser Ian Smith said.

“They are not dictated by the short term and they also have a proud track record of maximizing the assets over the longer term,” he said.

Underscoring the gap between the short and the long view, Laguna Bay Pastoral Co., an agricultural investment fund advised by U.S. commodities trader Jim Rogers, was forced to seek investors offshore because of a lack of interest in Australia.

“We were presented to most local funds. Most Australian local pension funds don’t have agriculture assets allocation,” Laguna founder Tim McGavin told Reuters.

“We have been forced to market to overseas just because the general lack of understanding and interest in agriculture.”

Laguna secured its main seed funding from U.S.-based Global Endowment Management, and now aims to buy and privatize PrimeAg Australia Ltd., an investor in rural property and water assets.

Australia’s vast pension funds industry, sitting on $1.4-trillion and looking for long-term diversified assets, has largely shied away from the sector. Even The Future Fund, Australia’s $80-billion sovereign wealth fund, has no direct exposure to the country’s agricultural sector.

Still, Pauline Vamos, the chief executive of the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia, said interest in farm assets is picking up after some ill-conceived and poorly managed projects had put off local investors.

“You’ve had cotton farms built in the middle of the desert, you’ve had timber plantations built miles from any infrastructure – these schemes were never going to make any money,” she said.

A walk down memory lane:

Germany’s K+S to move forward on Saskatchewan project

VANCOUVER— Globe and Mail Update
Published Tuesday, Nov. 29, 2011 9:08AM EST


Germany’s K+S AG, Europe's largest potash producer, said Tuesday it will move forward with construction of the $3.2-billion Legacy project in Saskatchewan.

K+S, which obtained the project a year ago in the $434-million purchase of Canada’s Potash One, said production is expected to begin in 2015.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/industry-news/energy-and-resources/germanys-ks-to-move-forward-on-saskatchewan-project/article2253275/

Sludge from Alberta pulp mills makes excellent fertilizer

Plump tomatoes growing in landfill got researchers thinking

By Dave Cooper, edmontonjournal.com November 12, 2011 7:24 AM

EDMONTON — When folks at the Alberta Newsprint Company first noticed tomatoes growing in their pulp effluent sludge, they had a chuckle.

“We figured since there was a small amount of sanitary waste treated on our landfill site, and since tomato seeds pass through the human digestive system, that a tomato-eating staff member was the source,” joked Dan Moore, environmental co-ordinator for the Whitecourt papermaking plant.

“But the bigger question was, ‘Why was the pulp sludge so plant-friendly?’ ”

So they called in researchers. And what followed was a decade-long project that has changed the way three Alberta pulp mills are allowed to handle their sludge.

The results of the work led to the end of expensive burning and landfilling of the sludge, and provided local farmers with an excellent fertilizer. In the future, it may offer oil and gas companies a better way to reclaim former well sites.

“This project begun in 1992 by Terry Macyk (of the former Alberta Research Council) really put the province at the forefront on this issue. The three pulp companies came together and helped fund the research. They didn’t have to do this and no one forced them to do it,” said Bonnie Drozdowski, reclamation team leader at Alberta Innovates Technology Futures.

The sludge is composed of residue from the mechanical pulping process used at three mills (the rest use a kraft process which requires more chemicals) and contains carbon matter and nutrients. Alberta Newsprint, for example, produces 800 tonnes a day of newsprint sold to newspapers all over North America — including to The Edmonton Journal — and 30 tonnes of sludge.

The two other mills — Millar Western in Whitecourt and Slave Lake Pulp — produce more sludge to make the larger quantities of pulp they sell to secondary manufacturers of products ranging from fine paper to baby diapers to cardboard.

The goal of the research was to ensure that the nutrient-rich sludge could be safely applied to agricultural land to improve the soil. The project started with laboratory work and quickly moved to field trials. The yield results were stunning for grasses, crops and trees.

Trees on the test plots grew about 20 per cent faster, and are projected to reach a harvestable size in 60 years versus the normal 70 to 80 years.

Trials in areas such as former oil and gas well sites are still underway. It is hoped the sludge will help detoxify land as well provide a base for better reclamation and regeneration on marginal lands. Early results are promising.

There is also the potential of selling sludge as compost to garden centres.

But today, the sole use is by agriculture.

And there is a long list of farmers who want the sludge.

“When we started this I would drive around and try and convince people to use the stuff. Now I get all the phone calls and repeat customers,” said Moore.

Jeff Shipton, environmental co-ordinator for the Millar Western mill, says farmers will actually stop his trucks to get contact information.

“We have a dedicated trucking company to haul this product, with boxes that don’t leak because the sludge resembles porridge,” he said. (The sludge is 80-per-cent water.)

Under Alberta Environment rules which were developed because of the research project, farmers are allowed to apply up to 80 tonnes of sludge per hectare, although the average is about 50 tonnes.

Shipton’s firm pays to have the material incorporated into the top 15 centimetres of soil, while the sludge from Moore’s operation is a different consistency and farmers are able to spread it themselves.

“We spread mostly in the Green Court and Mayerthorpe areas (south of Whitecourt),” said Shipton.

The firms usually don’t truck the sludge more than 45 kilometres from their mills.

The farmers get a “lovely slow-release fertilizer that enhances the soil properties and alters the physical structure of the soil, increasing its water holding capacity, porosity and aeration,” said Drozdowski.

Once applied, it provides a benefit for at least five years — which means farmers are freed from applying expensive fertilizers.

The pulp mills would love to charge farmers for the material. But they won’t.

“It is hard to convince a farmer to pay for it in this part of the country, but it might be different if we were located near areas with big cash crops like wheat, where the savings in (commercial) fertilizer use would be significant,” said Moore.

But the mills aren’t complaining, he adds.

“If we had kept doing things the same way, by landfilling, we would have had to build two more landfill sites by now at a very large cost. We produce enough sludge to fill up Rexall Place every few years,” Moore added.

“So it has been a real win-win for the farming community, for us and for the environment.”

The other two mills in the program were burning their sludge, an expensive process that meant it had to be dried and mixed with woody material, like sawdust.

“Our beehive burner is 20 kilometres out of town, so no longer dealing with all those costs has been a saving. But the sludge spreading program is still relatively expensive for us,” said Shipton.

In a world that is trying to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, Drozdowski said the sludge project proved to be a winner by both reducing CO2 from combustion and sequestering carbon in the soil. Her team even wrote up a protocol for carbon credits, the same way farmers who practise zero tilling earn credits that have cash value — firms that emit large amounts of CO2 have to purchase credits or pay into a research fund under Alberta’s carbon regulations.

“Under the protocol we were technically approved. But because we started doing this before 2001, the project is ineligible. We kinda got punished for being an early actor,” she said.

So after years of early research and then more years of monitoring, the pulp mill sludge project has entered a new stage.

“We now are getting the message out across Canada, because many mechanical pulp mills are still landfilling or burning their sludge,” said Drozdowski.

B.C.’s two mechanical mills are looking at what Alberta has done, as are mills in Ontario.

And the project has just launched a website which details the research.

“We want everyone to be aware of this project, that Alberta is an environmental leader with almost 20 years experience studying this sludge,” she said.

The team has taken the sludge project from the very beginning, from an observation about tomatoes, to an idea that might be worth examining, through the research stages to having enough science to establish provincial regulations, and now seeing farmers lining up to use it.

“At the end of the day we have a nice green product that people see has value,” said Drozdowski.

Hi earthfar

Good to hear from you. I don't check this board often anymore, will keep a closer tab on it.
Things are generally good.
Moisture might be excessive currently, although that can change.
Need some heat at this stage.
Basically countryside looks very lush.

Skiing my butt off
Mostly x-country, bit of light touring, once at Sunshine.

Doing a lot of the grooming in town too, full time job this year.

Going to Torrey Pines to watch Tiger, Phil and Weir today.

Hanging out at the Blackfoot?

Ed's Thread is dead

Not lately
Took wife south on a "medical vacation."
You getting out at all?

Golf has lessons for investors

David Berman

A number of observers have noted the similarities between smart investing and good poker playing. Now comes an analogy between investing and golf – or at least a punishing course like Pebble Beach, where the U.S. Open championship was held last week.

According to Bill Luby, at VIX and More (via Abnormal Returns), the trick to success in both pursuits is to avoid making big mistakes.

He explains: “The reason the Pebble Beach odyssey stuck in my mind is that it reminded me that traders should approach trading the way they would approach a golf course like Pebble Beach. The goal should be to play for pars and look to capitalize on any birdie opportunities that arise. To the extent possible, this means keeping the ball away from hazards and obstacles, as well as avoiding low percentage plays. It also means not compounding small mistakes by pressing and trying to make up lost shots in a hurry. Impulsive play is almost always penalized; patience and discipline are the only way to survive.”

Put some spikes on your flippers

Rod Phillips says ‘it’s time to move on’

Voice of the Edmonton Oilers is retiring

Read more: http://www.edmontonjournal.com/entertainment/Phillips+says+time+move/3083165/story.html#ixzz0pK67lOSL

Works for me
I need a temp above 15* and a wind less than 20km/hour.
Maybe we get a day that fits that criteria this summer

Still winter at the hill:

Past 24 Hours: 4cm, Past 4 Days: 28cm,

This freaking wind needs to die down!!

By the look of the weather forecast golf season is going to start today.

Saturday was unreal, I thought yesterday was a bit of a let down after that.
Still very entertaining.
I am about ready for some green around here

Got an appt. this aft
Lousy roads
Not real big on weekend skiing although it should be quiet this time of year

Any number of excuses I guess

This morning:

Past 24 Hours: 25cm, Past 7 Days: 45cm, Snow Pack: 190cm, Snow To Date: 541cm

Be a great day to be up there.

Sunshine
No big dumps but seems to be snowing pretty steady up there

The swing will be as shitty as ever
I hit a couple of buckets this week
Someone said course opens today, dunno, got my membership last week.

I am still in skiing mode, had 2 days last week that were the best downhill days of the season

Looks nice

Hit a small bucket myself yesterday

Was it you who was interested in that extra 3 hybrid I have?

Where in Mexico where you?

I don't think that is part of this year's program Red.
I'll tough it out around here again.
:)

Yeah I was out in the mtns a couple times.
Us peckerwoods don't go south

Carbon pipeline input sought
By Advocate staff

Published: March 17, 2010 7:51 PM

The Energy Resources Conservation Board is seeking input from interested parties with respect to a proposed pipeline system that would carry carbon dioxide from industrial emitters near Edmonton to mature oilfields in east-Central Alberta.

Enhance Energy Inc. wants to develop the 240-km pipeline, with the province pledging $495 million for the project and the federal government agreeing to kick in another $63.3 million. The Alberta Carbon Trunk Line would transport carbon dioxide from the Fort Saskatchewan area to a site near Clive. From there, it would be distributed for injection into conventional oil and gas reservoirs to stimulate production.

Enhance Energy’s application calls for the line to be built in two segments, with one measuring 21.4 km and the other 215.5 km.

Enhance Energy’s CEO Susan Cole said previously that work would begin next year, with the pipeline expected to be operational by late 2012. Labour during construction would peak at around 2,000 direct jobs, but workers would also be needed for ongoing operations and the resulting enhanced oil recovery projects.

The line’s capacity is expected to be 40,000 tonnes of CO2 per day, or more than 14 million tonnes a year. That’s equivalent to the CO2 produced by 2.6 million cars.

However, initial volumes are expected to be about 5,100 tonnes per day.

The gas will not contain hydrogen sulphide.

A copy of Enhance Energy’s application can be obtained from the company in Calgary. It is also available for viewing through the ERCB.

Submissions related to the application must be received by the ERCB by April

..Drawing on CO2 from petrochemical manufacturing at Joffre (near Red Deer, Alta.), Penn West operates Alberta's only CO2-driven EOR project. Encouraged by that five-year pilot project, the trust is working toward construction of a CO2 pipeline that would transport that gas about 150 kilometres for EOR use in the Pembina field. In the meantime, it has drilled two innovative horizontal wells in the Pembina Cardium. The first was a water injector, designed to drive oil toward vertical wellbores, while the second well initiated a CO2 flood. Results have not been announced......

http://www.oilandgasinquirer.com/article.asp?article=magazine/090706/MAG2009_L60000.html

Large-scale carbon storage possible in Alberta - at a cost, researchers say


By Dan Healing, Calgary HeraldMarch 12, 2010 12:02 PM

CALGARY - “Huge amounts” of carbon dioxide can be stored underground in Alberta, says a University of Calgary-led study released Friday, although it adds cost is a concern and more study needs to be done.

The study, paid for by two councils backed by the provincial and federal governments and industry, concludes it is “technologically feasible” to store 500 million tonnes of CO2 in a 5,000-square-kilometre area without managing the pressure of the geologic formation into which it is would be injected.

But the team of 16 university researchers and industry consultants started out with the prospect of one billion tonnes — 20 million tonnes per year of carbon dioxide over 50 years — in a study of the feasibility, cost and potential risk of permanent underground storage.

The 500 million tonnes is roughly equivalent to half the emissions for 30 years from all of Alberta’s centrally located coal-fired power plants, the report notes.

The study, called the Wabamun Area CO2 Sequestration Project or WASP, was coordinated by the Institute for Sustainable Energy, Environment and Economy at the university.

The Alberta government has committed $2 billion to help kick-start four commercial-scale CCS projects as a key way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, especially from coal-fired power plants.

dhealing@theherald.canwest.com

Not tring to get political on you Ed but thought this was an interesting take on things.
We've been paying 6-7 cents/kw the last 6 months, been under a dime for over a year.

Green energy bubbles

Terence Corcoran, Financial Post

That eerie hissing you hear may well be the air beginning to seep out of the green energy bubble. The sound is similar to the pfffffft and sshhhhsssssp noises we heard in the early days of the dot.combubble collapse or the subprime mortgage meltdown. If you can't hear it, you are not alone. While investment analysts are telling their clients to get out of solar power firms and warning about the continuing risks in wind and bioenergy schemes, Ottawa and the provinces are on a mad populist stampede to throw billions of dollars at the green energy monster. The politicians don't seem to be keeping up with the trends. "Don't try to catch a falling knife," warned J.P. Morgan this week in a report that told investors the market continues to fall out of the solar panel module market. It downgraded a bunch of solar companies that have already been in a tailspin since the fist signs of a solar crash back in 2008.

Other alternative energy sectors are hitting walls. Jurisdictions with wind power regimes face continuing issues related to the fact that the wind often doesn't blow much, turning investments in wind farms into cash-draining albatrosses. In Ontario, the 1,100 megawatts of built wind turbine capacity are often running a few megawatts at a time, and even on the best of days have trouble producing 150 megawatts.

Despite the fundamental lack of economic justification for alternative energy, governments keep pumping air into the bubbles. They blew a small fortune on ethanol programs that didn't quite work out, so now they're betting vast sums on aggressive campaigns to create green industries using some of the most regressive interventionist methods known to economics.

Subsidies, trade protectionism, market-distorting prices, back-door tax hikes, carbon taxes, massive regulation, big secret deals with rent seeking corporations, cross subsidies from one industry to another -- no policy option is too crazy for green energy. The Liberal government of Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty has already billed itself as possibly the greenest energy jurisdiction in the world, a claim that seems plausible given the IMAX scale of its economy-distorting Green Energy Act.

Ontario's main claim to power fame is a "feed-in-tariff " scheme under which the province will force power into the market at subsidized rates. Under the act, power distributors are obliged to pay 44 ¢ a kilowatt hour for solar power, 13.5¢ for wind power and up to 80¢ for solar power delivered from rooftop systems. Loblaw, the grocery store chain, yesterday become one of the first companies to agree to accept the 80¢ subsidy for power from solar panels installed on the roofs of its stores. The cost of that 80¢ power will be borne by all electricity consumers in higher rates.

And now B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell is reportedly angling to topple Ontario for the greenest-of-them-all title. "There is not a jurisdiction that won't try to win the clean energy race," said Mr. Campbell. He promises to fast track alternative energy projects. The province's B.C. Hydro monopoly is expected to announce new energy purchase agreements sometime this month. One of them is with a group headed by GE Energy Financial Services to revive the controversial Upper Toba Valley Hydroelectric Project. That project remains shrouded in financial mystery.

While British Columbia's purchase-agreements are not quite feed-in-tariff structures, the economic reality is that green energy tends to cost more and the higher costs will be borne by all consumers. None of these technologies -- solar, wind, bioenergy -- are economical on their own in competition with natural gas or coal -- or even nuclear. At 80¢ a kilowatt hour, Ontario could theoretically be better off building a dozen new nuclear plants.

Needless to say, all this is being driven by the fantasy of reducing and even eliminating carbon emissions so as to save the planet from global warming. Leaving aside the growing probability that global warming science will prove to have been a false alarm, little or no work has been done on whether any of the alternative energy spending will reduce carbon emissions. Ontario has yet to produce any evidence that its massive feed-in-tariff regime will appreciably reduce carbon emissions, even though consumers will pay billions of dollars more for electricity in years to come.

Internationally, the alt-energy movement has taken on bubble qualities. The solar report by J.P. Morgan documents the rise and fall of a half dozen companies that are now trading at a fraction of their market highs (see two examples below). Solar panel prices plunged last year and appear to be heading lower still this year. Stock prices, already battered, could go lower. "We believe significant downside risk remains even from these levels and continue to be wary." Making money in solar is still a problem. ENER has annual revenue of $367-million, but lost $1.54 a share. Evergreen lost $21-million on $74-million in revenue

The dot. comish quality of the solar industry is obvious. Even worse from an economic perspective are the perverse government policies driving the market. Ontario insists on local content in solar and wind equipment, thus guaranteeing rate payers will pay high prices for equipment that is available on the open market at deep discounts.

Even more perverse economically is that the subsidies for alternative energy come on top of other carbon-reducing programs. Programs such as carbon taxes in British Columbia and smart meters in Ontario compound the cost burden on consumers. If cap and trade were to be thrown on top of the green energy programs and existing taxes, the irrationality of the green energy system would become even greater.

Maybe the hissing sound of deflating bubbles will eventually shake up the politicians and consumers. The worst is yet to come.

12k seems to be pretty strong resistance
Wonder if it gets through that this week?

Probably
I see The Harvest is open in a week

Got guys in shorts out jogging, people on bikes, kids tobogganing and a few skiers out front today.

Buddy at the range had the mats shoveled off.

Touche

I wonder how far west I need to go to get a game?

Keep it up , that should bring on some more snow

Regina pinched by plunge of potash
Patrick White

Winnipeg — Globe and Mail Update Published on Tuesday, Mar. 02, 2010 8:15PM EST Last updated on Wednesday, Mar. 03, 2010 3:11AM EST

The coveted pink mineral that once formed Saskatchewan's fiscal bedrock has officially become a fiscal millstone.

Potash revenues in Saskatchewan landed so far short of expectations last year that Regina will refund more than $200-million in quarterly payments it collected from the industry, Finance Minister Rod Gantefoer revealed yesterday in the province's third-quarter financial report.

The reimbursement represents a drastic change of fortune in the province where potash revenues were expected to total $1.9-billion – or roughly one of every five dollars flowing into government coffers – in last year's budget forecast.

The admission illustrates both the recent crash of potash prices and the extent to which last year's provincial revenue forecasts were overestimated.

“We actually reported more money than we probably should have in our last fiscal year and as a result we have to show a negative in this fiscal year,” said Mr. Gantefoer.

Saskatchewan exports roughly 25 per cent of the world's potash – a potassium salt used in fertilizer. With prices trading at over $1,000 a tonne prior to the financial crash in late 2008, Saskatchewan was flush. Those prices have since dropped to around $350 on plummeting volumes, dropping the province in a hole that few saw coming.

“No one expected their potash revenues to be negative,” said Mary Webb, senior economist with the Bank of Nova Scotia. “Fiscal 2010 hasn't been easy for any of the provinces, and particularly not Saskatchewan.”

On the bright side, total revenues from oil and income tax came in nearly $1-billion higher than expected, filling much of the potash void. By shifting another $1-billion from Crown corporations and a rainy-day fund, the province anticipates it will post a $424.5-million surplus.

“They may call it a surplus, but it's an artificial balance they've maintained only by draining all resources out of Crown corporations and draining the rainy-day fund,” said Trent Wotherspoon, finance critic for the opposition NDP. “And this at a time when we have relative revenue strength.”

Indeed Saskatchewan's revenues have remained buoyant considering worldwide financial duress, rising to more than $9.5-billion from $7.8-billion in just two years.

Mr. Gantefoer will present next year's budget on March 24. With commodity prices fluctuating wildly, he faces a vexing task. On the one hand, he'll want to avoid the overoptimistic forecasts that cost Brad Wall's government significant political capital last year; on the other, potash prospects are actually looking positive for the first time in months.

“We have indications that potash will improve significantly in fiscal '11,” Scotiabank's Ms. Webb said. “Both price and volume should recover.”

Canpotex, the export marketing company for Canadian potash producers Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., Agrium Inc. and Mosaic Group Inc., recently made large sales in Indian and China.

“We did take a significant hit to the economy, but we now seem to be returning to more gradual growth in the industry,” Mr. Gantefoer said. “That puts us in a pretty good position. By these numbers, it's clear that Saskatchewan's economy is coming out of the recession a little earlier than most other provinces.”

Kershaw earns another historic result; Northug wins gold
The Globe and Mail
By Allan Maki, The Globe and Mail Posted Sunday, February 28,

WHISTLER - There was so much to be thankful for - seven top-10 finishes, the men's pursuit race where three Canadians finished ahead Petter Northug, the Olympics alpha skier. Then there was the fourth-place showing in the team sprint.

But Devon Kershaw wanted more on the last day of cross-country skiing at Whistler Olympic Park; 1.5 seconds more.

Had he been just that much faster in the 50-kilometres classic, had he not slipped here or lost ground there, Kershaw would have won the gold medal. Instead, he was fifth; the same placing teammate Ivan Babikov managed in the 15-km, the first men's event of the 2010 Winter Games.

"I'm super happy and sad for him at the same time," Babikov said of Kershaw Sunday. "I felt the same way. It's a great result, but you're thinking, ‘So close, so far.'"

Those words could best sum up Canada's cross-country efforts against the traditional powers of Norway, Sweden and Germany. On a number of occasions, the men and women challenged marvelously. Other times they weren't nearly as good. Overall, the men fashioned the best results but couldn't secure a medal.

"I would say we exceeded [their Olympic ambitions]," said George Grey, who was 18th in the 50-km. "We didn't get a medal. It wasn't an expectation, more of a hope. The only thing we missed was one medal on the men's team but we were so close."

That Kershaw was the one to lead his side in the cross-country's marathon race was very much a surprise. Days earlier, it was thought the 27-year-old Canmore resident would be the odd man out so that Canada could race Brian McKeever, the visually-impaired skier who made history by becoming the first Paralympian named to a Winter Olympic team.

Cross-country Canada officials met Friday and decided to go with their four best skiers, which meant McKeever was the alternate behind Kershaw, Grey, Babikov and Alex Harvey. Babikov and Harvey, considered the best chances for a medal in the 50-km, finished outside the top-30.

"This is only the fourth 50-km of my life," said Kershaw, who was seventh in a World Cup 50-km last year and believed he executed his game to plan to perfection "I wanted to stay with the leaders and conserve energy. Over two hours, you have to be so calm, so collected and save energy. But to be so close to a medal in the 50 km ... When I see my wax technicians it's going to be very hard. A lot of emotion."

Kershaw flittered in and out of the top-20 until late in the last lap when Germany's Axel Teichmann pulled free from the pack. Northug waited until the straightaway before racing into the lead to win his fourth medal and second gold of these Games. Kershaw had no idea where he'd placed when he crossed the finish line.

"When I lunged I didn't know what place it was for and when I looked at the board, I was, ‘Man,'" said Kershaw. "I hold my head up high. But at the same time it's really difficult to place fifth. In a race so long to be 1.5 seconds back, so it's going to take awhile (to get over it)."

The majority of the men's team is expected to stick around for 2014. Grey will ski in the 2011 world championships then gauge his performance on a year-to-year basis. In the weeks ahead, the team will reflect on its Callaghan Valley performance, both the good and what how good it could have been.
"One point five seconds from the gold," said Kershaw. "I'm going to leave these Olympic really proud of what we accomplished but you never know if you got another chance. I hope we do."

The troubling silence on potash pricing

EUGENE WHELAN

From Friday's Globe and Mail Published on Friday, Feb. 26, 2010 12:00AM EST Last updated on Friday, Feb. 26, 2010 3:31AM EST

The Hon. Eugene F. Whelan served as MP from 1962-1984 and senator from 1996-99. He is a former minister of agriculture for Canada (1972-79, 1980-84) and former president of the UN World Food Council (1983-85.)

Potassium is a non-perishable resource that has lasted thousands of years in the bowels of the Earth. It is an abundant element, but the large deposits are found in only a handful of countries - with about half the global supply found in Saskatchewan.

When potassium is mined and refined it becomes more commonly known as potash; around the world, more than 90 per cent of potash is used in the form of fertilizer.

Potash fertilizer is a crucial factor in food production. After centuries of farming, much of the land in many countries is depleted of nutrients. Just like humans, plants are a reflection of what they take in. Without proper soil nutrients, food crops are weaker; they do not retain water well; their taste and colour are poorer. They are more prone to disease. The harvest is smaller and crop failure is possible. Many types of crops, from fruits and vegetables to cereals and grains, benefit from the application of potash.

As the world population increases, global food production becomes an even more pressing concern. How to feed an ever-growing population with the same amount of land is a question asked over and over. Improved crop yields, attainable by using potash, is one answer.

In 2007 and 2008, the cost of potash rose dramatically on the world markets, climbing from a seven-year average price of $145 a tonne to more than $1,000 a tonne. The cost to produce this same tonne was roughly $70. Many farmers could not afford the purchase price, and chose to not apply potash to their lands, or used it at a lower-than-recommended rate of application. At the same time, potash producers reaped mega dollars from the sales that were made. Potash companies both here in Canada and in Russia, and their executives and shareholders, fared well. Meanwhile, small farmers in countries such as Brazil and India struggle to exist, with food shortages ever-present threats.

The cartel of potash producers agreed to a world price. When prices rose to more than $1,000 a tonne, if you wanted the potash you had to pay, no matter where you live in the world. What happened to the ethic that we are our brother's keeper? What happened to the idea that that we live in a competitive free market, ruled by the law of supply and demand? It seems that greed now rules in its place, at the expense of millions of the world's poor.

Sales and prices dropped dramatically last year, after the price increases, but shorter-term potash prices have recently climbed to as high as $430. It is incomprehensible how civilized companies can do what they have done in the potash fertilizer business. Corporate executives know this product is essential to grow food crops, yet they are treating it not as it if were a basic resource, but as if it were some sort of luxury item, like diamonds, that can be made scarce and sold to the highest bidder.

What is so amazing - and alarming - is that no government or government body can or will do anything about this organized activity. Even the World Trade Organization, whose goal it is to make sure that global trade is conducted fairly, does nothing.

It is also hard to fathom that investors continue to purchase stocks of potash producers. Do they not see that the inflated price for potash cannot do anything, ultimately, but raise the price of food and deprive the hungry? The self-interested cartel sets the market price - a price which has nothing to do with the cost of production of potash. Remember, it currently costs about $70 to load a tonne of potash onto a rail car at the mine.

There is not a lowered demand for potash, as the companies say. Instead, there is a demand for lowered prices. Without a price drop, there will be less potash fertilizer used, leading to food shortages and higher food prices. Lives and livelihoods will be lost. Malnutrition, starvation and death are real outcomes.

Excellent
Got your boots I take it?
Family affair or with some guys?

I need a program
Can't tell the players
:)

err...the Latvians I mean
Quite a tournament going on

Great game tonight
The boys have jelled
Bring on the Swedes