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I sold all my shares today, bought at 19.60, sold at 23.20 today.
Don't have the nerves holding into AH, hearing is still ongoing.
I wish you all the best guys, I hope I can buy back tomorrow after this mess cleared up.
My bet is either Jan 11 or before the opening statements (around Jan 20). Very rare to settle during trial.
I think we will peak on Friday, next Monday is the most likely settlement day.
Was nice seeing that 26.99, I wish it lasted longer :)
"Within reason, no one on either side has any real risk of going to prison "
Except probably Samsung's lawyers :)
I can only refer to Interdigital's case as an example (btw: the company has a great Ihub forum, if anybody wants to check that out).
The estimation for past royalties were in the range of $800 million, Samsung settled in last minute for $400 million and for that amount got a 5 years license too. It was way below of shareholders expectation. I'm trying to use this figure (50% of past royalties) to keep my expectation in line with reality. Of course I'm ready to be surprised positively :)
Naturally RMBS is special in many aspect, it was nearly driven out of business by the mfgs. Therefore may not be that willing to settle as other companies. Right now Rambus is in the driver's seat, the most interesting question is how much the management would accept as the lowest figure from Samsung. I think it's in the range of 1-2 billions.
Great article, let's hope we get more exposure next week, it's such a great story even involving strippers :)
Great post on Yahoo!
Quite rare there :)
http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_R/threadview?m=te&bn=15550&tid=1118669&mid=1118669&tof=1&frt=2#1118669
The only problem I see with 'drumbuss' post is that nobody would settle for USA only. That's not a likely scenario at all. It's either trial or worldwide settlement but his figures make a lot of sense in general. I also expect mid 40s pps as the best case scenario (in case of settlement). If trial goes on, it will likely stay where it is now until jury verdict.
And I still think Hynix can surprise us and come forward unexpectedly, despite the Robinson issues.
IDCC - Samsung settlement was about this time last year.
If memory serves me right the details were announced on the first or second week of January, cost $400 million for Samsung. Of course RMBS is a much bigger deal, could take longer.
I still think that the most likely date is Jan 11. The next one is around the opening statements (approx Jan 20-22). If not settled by than, I don't expect settlement to happen ever. That may be the best option for patient longs, a large jury verdict could give a nice boost to pps.
Not sure if it was discussed here but there will be a hearing on Monday, mainly about jury questionnaire. Not important at all.
Boring day, I have high hopes for the last two days of next week.
I don't see H paying 1B, but lets hope you are right! :)
HJK clearly wants to 'force' a settlement by keeping the trial on schedule.
Probably we overlook here an important factor, Hynix could be a more obvious company to settle than Samsung.
H already paying royalty to an escrow account, have about $400M blocked in different assets and very low chance for appeal. If they just throw a few hundred million for what they already 'paid' that would probably settle the case for good.
Of course I'm aware of the Robinson issue but don't think that makes impossible for H to settle.
The only issue left if it lasts 2 or 6 months. Obviously Kramer will not let it go for 6 months.
In my understanding, it was implied that jury summons have been sent out already. That's why the exact number of potential jurors were discussed.
Kramer will not delay at this point and make a fool of himself summoning 260+people for nothing.
Mfgs getting extremely desperate, what does that tell us about our chances? :)
I think 3B is the highest possible amount. Of course jury could go wild and declare 4B (before trebling), I wouldn't rule that out. But seriously doubt Kramer would let that unchanged. Anything between 1-3B(after trebling) is probably more realistic.
I'm new to this saga, started buying RMBS only approx a year ago. What I noticed though that people following the story for years got into a strange mindset. On one hand they are expecting unrealistic compensation like 12B, on the other hand can't believe in any positive development ('cartel will pull some trick').
So take this as from an 'outsider': this trial is on and nobody can delay it. Pps will rise next week, my target is 28 on the Jan 8.
The only tough decision will be whether hold or sell at the end of next week.
Got to go guys, nothing important is happening at court in the rest of the day.
We got the good news we wanted. I was told a lot of details about Kramer's comments, all were very positive to RMBS. Don't have the time to put it down and Drive will do it anyway soon.
I guess we can easily find from 260 people a good 12 juror. :)
Happy New Year!
There is no more hearing between now and Jan 11, trial is on.
Hard to believe, but none of the mfgs delay tactic worked. I expected more from them, loaded up with puts to protect my shares.
IMHO most likely settlement date is Jan 11.
Judge arived, talking about jury procedure.
This was a great day at court.
Based on what I was hearing Samsung is a toast. Can't even argue spoliation in the opening statements. How great is that?!
I guess Drive will make his usual report with more details.
I would be very suprised if we didn't reach 28 next week. Settlement probably on the 11th.
Hard to believe, espeically if you follow RMBS for long, but nothing seems to be able to delay the trial.
Hearing started
I'm here too but don't want to waste my 15 posts :)
Will report if hear anything from court today, have a reliable friend there.
Gery is the real deal, listen to him.
I'm hearing the same from other sources, very good reporting.
Finally, well said, thanks starduster!
It's simple:
RMBS didn't want the jury to know that any damages they may approve will be automatically trebled. That was the MIL about. That's it.
Jury will issue, say $2B, without knowing that it means 6 in real life.
You guys are getting this trebling MIL totally wrong, was the biggest positive today so far.
They are but the jury will not know, homerun for RMBS. Honestly, I didn't expect this MIL to be granted.
I'm fed up with Blue's bs, didn't come here to read it.
Nobody heard yet the mfgs arguments, it's going on now. It's only an assumption that the trial is on based on TSRA dates and Kramer;s comments. Will be sure in the coming hours.
Mfgs could have some arguments to stay the case (I doubt but possible)
Cause it was TSRA's case so far, with hints about RMBS. Now talking about RMBS, going very well.
MIL's, about 7 of them
Probably that's a good thing (not referring to Sabatino)
Thanks, appreciated.
as to somebody relatively new to RMBS, what was 'his pushing match with Gary Hansen'?
TIA
Sad but true, Revlis got it right.
Good luck guys for today!
I decided to take my position after the ruling.
Lol :)
Just check his predictions at seekingalpha on any share, that will put into perspective any of his opinion.
Maybe NukeJohn will tell us about how the staff's opinion was integrated into the TSRA rulings...
(Answer: the ALJ couldn't care less about it)
ITC: Public Version Final Initial and Recommended Determinations
http://tiny.cc/leDh2
Sorry if posted already.
My heart goes out for the longs here, really. I made friends with some from this board, and I really felt bad when seeing the ruling.
But we are where we are. Those not on margin will not lose money because this stock is worth easy 40 without Nokia, it will just take time. No argument about that.
I apologize if my post could be read that way, the last thing that I was wishing for is realized (or 'real') loss for longs.
Revlis,
Congratulation for buying puts. I decided not to have any position, cause affraid of exactly what happened. So no profit, no loss this time.
Now thinking to get back next week, cause the market tends to overreact ITC rulings.
However, I think the decision won't be reversed after appeal. There is no comparison with the Tessera case. The good news is that the market will know that and pps won't drop again in December, we can only get positive surprise from here. Question is where to get back in, I'm hoping for 17.