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...do you disagree with Taleb?
Not often. I do think he assigns too much blame to Greenspan-Bernanke - reality is they aren't really independent enough to do a whole lot given the fiscal imbalances at the federal level.
I only hope the next administration takes advantage of the "blame the previous guys" get out of jail card it's getting to make substantial changes in their first 12-18 months. Not super-hopeful but...hopeful.
Kinda-OT: Taleb goes off on UK TV...
Mr. Black Swan speaks...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDVgqxiT9RSg&refer=home
Taleb is angry that Wall Street is continuing to use traditional tools such as value at risk, which banks use to decide how much to wager in the markets. "We would like society to lock up quantitative risk managers before they cause more damage,'' Taleb said.
Has anybody seen or heard from Lango in the past week or so? EOM.
Summary: still no $800 laptop, still no Bluray, still no flesh on Jobs' bones.
Zzzzzz....
Well that was an interesting ride - AAPL finally back over $100.
Based on the apparent lack of anything new and exciting in the pipeline, I vote for "more notebooks that act a lot like existing notebooks".
Maybe MacWorld...
thanks, tomm, that's consoling
Yeah, in a "run out and buy more bullets" kind of way. :(
Here we go - two outs to figure out if the Price is Right.
Stat check - Red Sox averaging 2 LOB per inning so far?
We’ll soon see if Francona is as dumb as Maddon.
Francona is just the marrionette as long as Theo and his laptop are within wireless distance.
At least...I'd like to think so.
I think.
Maybe.
bang! Bang!! BANG!!!
Lemon meringue pie for everyone!
There's blood on the carpet!
Sorry, misunderstood. Frankly, I think the only real reason was political - there is very rich irony in 8 years of GOP leadership ending with the nationalization of the banks. My guess - and it's only a guess - is they were looking for a band-aid that would last until the next administration was sworn in.
I’ve never understood why the AIG deal was structured differently than the original $700bn deal.
Because AIG's books were much larger and far more convoluted than (even) Lehman's. Both went down at the same time, and only one of them had a hope of being unwound in something resembling an orderly fashion. If AIG had been unwound, we'd probably be at a Dow in the 6Ks right now, because the unwind would have established actual market marks for virtually every other institution of importance on the planet.
AIG was in bed with everybody - Lehman was somewhat more circumspect in sharing its affections.
You could do all that. Unfortunately none of it can change the fact that Byrne is incapable of running a profitable company.
Hey - thanks for taking it in the spirit it was intended. :)
OT: Is that where "the incident" happened? Man, they are playing with some nasty juju with this "Obama is an Arab and consorts with terrorists" crap. Especially in the middle of a short-temper-inducing economic meltdown.
...would any of the Rays fans made AAA comments?
Judging by the Ray's typical attendance, I'm not sure most of the bandwaggoners now inhabiting the stadium seats even know what "AAA" means.
:)
And there goes home field advantage. Lemon meringue pie for everybody!
Ah here we go - high high heat heat.
That's twice in a row. Now I'm a little...concerned. Though there's still time to correct this one...
Goldfed Sacks.
Until Paulson's statement, it seemed to be what pretty much everyone except the US had converged on as part of the way out of this mess. Though "as soon as we can" does strike me as a little on the vague side.
With so many afraid to carry longs over the weekend and who-knows-what coming out of the G7/G20 meetings, markets sure could be heading for a White Monday. I know I'd have no complaints if AAPL opened at, say, $120. :)
OT: My proposal is simple...
Yes, it is, and that's the problem. You don't seem to have much understanding of actual market mechanics and therefore cannot see the giant GIANT problems with what you're suggesting.
OT: Hey, who needs free markets when you've got Republicans? :)
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the U.S. will buy equity ``as soon as we can' in banks and other financial institutions to restore market stability and revive economic growth.
Can I have a side of Freedom Fries to go with that Crow?
Sounds like you're suggesting the RS couldn't have done it without Manny..
I'm saying they DIDN'T do it without Manny. Whether they could or couldn't have is something I for one will never know.
All I want is equivalent rules for shorting and longing. If you want physical delivery - fine - make it a requirement for both directions of the trade. 'Course, we'll be back to T+10 settlement and reaaaaaaalllllllyyyyyy slllllooooooowwwww trading - but I'm sure you've thought through the implications of that and are totally cool with it.
I hear even just being in the same room as a naked short seller can cause cancer.
Too bad Boston swallowed his antics for so long...
Why is it "too bad"? Got two world series rings out of his tenure...
It's like a bad gov't program - doesn't work so the answer is to do even more of the same.
The New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Stock Market may file their proposal with the Securities and Exchange Commission as soon as today, said three people who have seen a draft of the rule. Under the plan, a stock that closes down more than 20 percent would be protected from short sellers for the following three days, the people said.
Ah....so that's the reason Cubs choked in the playoffs...
CHICAGO (Reuters) - The sale of the Chicago Cubs may be delayed by the global financial crisis unless owner Tribune Co is willing to accept a lower price for the storied baseball team, people involved in the sale said.
EDITED: As scary as it looks, adding QQQQ and emerging market ETFs down here. Still holding AAPL - avg price is <$100, so not looking to add unless it goes WAY down from here.
Italian PM being quoted as saying market closure is a topic of discussion for this weekend's G20 group hug.
In the "hoping for a Red Sox vs Dodgers" WS sense, sure.
Nikkei just hit an ALL TIME low. Their market was locked limit-down twice before it even opened. It's been close - twice - since opening.
IMO we are quite possibly one bad day away from having our own markets go on "holiday".
OT: Forgetting policy details for a moment - I remember when Clinton wanted something badly he was out there day and night talking to everyone and everything to try and get it done. As far as I can tell, the current occupant of the Big Chair is just sitting in the oval office ordering in Papa Johns and kegs of Pabst.
President going to address the nation again tomorrow. Maybe he'll announce the federal bureaucracy is moving from XP to OSX.
What an incredible market. At this rate, we are 2 days away - Monday! - from the first of the indices to start hitting the '02 lows.
Yowsa.
All things considered, AAPL holding up quite well.
This doesn't look promising for an earth-shaking event...?
OT: Regime change
(NY Times) Having tried without success to unlock frozen credit markets, the Treasury Department is considering taking ownership stakes in many United States banks to try to restore confidence in the financial system...
In less market-oriented countries, that's generally referred to as nationalization. But that's such an unpalatable word, so I'm sure the Freedom Fries gang will give it a much more appropriate moniker.
Yeah, that was me re: 30 year mortgages. We have not yet seen the fallout from all these long term fixed rate mortgages - SOMEBODY is going to be left holding the bag when rates go back to double digits. And it'll be someone(s) big, which means there'll be yet another bailout of mind-boogling proportions.
The other opinion I hold that gets me in a lot of trouble is that believe FDIC insurance should be REDUCED 5-fold, not increased to levels that are completely meaningless to the vast majority of Americans. I'm (more or less) ok with taxes being "neutral" rather than "progressive" - but FDIC as it stands is an incredibly regressive tax and with that I do have a serious issue.