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I can't imagine sealing documents and then not planning on giving out at least some sort of "shut-em-up" payout. If they try to get out of this without compensating those of us whom were originally invested in WaMu's preferred shares way back in the day, then they're *really* pushing the limits in terms of what the general public is willing to put up with.
Sealing the documents and then paying out money to escrow shares puts all of the escrow shareholders in a new position that would be strategically advantageous to them: now instead of going to court about the unfairness of only receiving a paltry sum of WMIH shares in exchange for signing the releases (shares which we could've just bought without all that arbitration over the escrows to begin with), we're now forced to prove that whatever sum they do decide to payout is an unfair sum of money given the nature of the lawsuit, the escrow shares, etc.
I think it would be easier for them if we had to prove that a sum of money paid out to the escrow shareholders was not fair, because in that case it is *our* burden to show that money we receive is not enough money. This would also require us to forfeit a distribution to us, less we retain whatever distribution they decide on *and then try to sue them for a remainder*. My gut tells me that after all these years, *anything* is better than nothing, and frankly, I and others like me are probably going to be just fine with some fraction of what our escrow shares were initially worth when it comes down to it.
There's just too much ammunition for a case against them if they decide that escrows get nothing.
Slowly declining to test $3?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMIH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91142754800
This also helps explain:
21. Approval of the settlement will avoid the needless expense associated with
continuing to litigate the California Objection and the validity and amount of the California
Claim. This will ensure that WMILT receives a meaningful distribution from the FTB. As noted
above, WMILT will avoid liability in excess of $280 million and, pursuant to the GSA, receive
twenty percent (20%) of the settlement amount, or $45 million. With such funds, WMILT will
be able to make additional distributions to claimants.
It looks like they'd rather opt for a $45 million right now rather than try to get the full amount over a long period of litigation.
Now we need to watch the trading next week to confirm that this is the bottom of the cup and handle formation. We can still push all the way down to test $3 and still have a viable C&H, or we could see it continue to fall next week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMIH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p90883042043
To confirm C&H: We need a breakout point set which can only happen when we watch trades early next week. I think we'll see a lot of hesitation as we approach the final week of March.
To confirm bearish reversal: a second top that does not breakout and then collapses below $3. One day of closing up isn't enough to predict either.
Good points all around. I would argue that 3-day, 5-day, and 7-day price patterns for stocks rampant with speculation and hype are incredibly important to consider if you have come into this fairly late in the game. The overall disposition of board members toward this stock on a daily basis is imputed, here; hype goes both ways (so in a way all of my hypothesis babble could also be chalked up as hype-y).
lol well they're hypotheses for a reason. If certain conditions are met I'll adjust my leading hypothesis. It's funny how ironic it all is; hiding behind technical indicators only makes my speculation less speculative-y, but it's all still speculation nonetheless.
If we touch $3 and hold, then I will support the hypothesis that this is a hesitant cup and handle formation. If we close below $3, that's too much a psychological defeat to be anything but a bearish signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMIH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p61310717155
For what it's worth to the optimists here, the chart is lining up perfectly for a cup and handle.
Don't forget that the opposite of my hypothesis is that this is a cup and handle forming. That would be incredible for everyone here. I am predicting that we will see a downward trend back to the 2.7 area because nothing will really happen in March.
Another viable hypothesis is that this stoop down is actually a synthetic pullback before an explosion (i.e., cup and handle). I don't like this because it's too optimistic for me; I have been invested in WAMU since 2006, so I'm extremely wary of anything that reeks of speculative hype.
Either hypothesis could be correct at this point.
Now you watch: this board will explode with the old adages of "GO WAMU!!!!!" and "LOAD UP NOW WHILE YOU CAN!!!!", when in reality, we're in no better of a position than we were a few days, weeks, months, years ago. The PPS has changed, sure, but that only reflects the level of relative "investor" confidence in this stock.
There are bull runs, people hoard shares, then the PPS drops as people start realizing "oops, I jumped on the bandwagon--again!". They lose money, then desperately hold on to their shares because they're clinging to the idea that seeing red right now is just temporary; the stock will soar to the moon, that's what the boards say, so hold on tight and just eat the losses. A lot of people (especially on this board) go one step further to feel better and they cover down on their portfolios and lower their average entry. Scoop up more shares at a lower price to make up for the bandwagon buying they did earlier.
At the end of the day, speculation drives greed which drives our internal desire for money. It's impossible to be objective about this stock if everyone only reads the positive posts on boards like this.
In fact, I'm surprised that my posts weren't deleted. A few months ago I posted a similar prediction that the post was instantly deleted. Confirmation bias is alive and well on these boards and other boards, and it's imperative that we understand basic rules about stocks like this:
- RSI doesn't lie
- When everyone is saying "load up!" you should pause
- When everyone is pissed off and calling this a worthless stock, you should buy
People who are buying this stock for short-term gains are making a killing. People who are buying this stock because they think it will "go to the moon" are just throwing money at a big money hole.
From a technical standpoint, RSI was way too high and I had a theory that the MACD patterns were about to repeat. From the looks of it, I'm correct: the MACD is about to intercept and indicate a trend reversal, confirmed by the candlestick patterns that piggyback off of a declining RSI.
From a value standpoint, *nothing* about this stock has changed except the frequency and intensity of rampant speculation.
The major problem I see in this (capped out) bullish trend was that people saw high volumes and thought that meant there would be big players holding onto WMIH shares for dear life. That might be the case, sure, but the recent bull run has been entirely fueled by speculation.
Back to technical. We can see a huge run up to around 2.70 and then weeks of riding waves around that price. That seemed to be the comfortable PPS that everyone likes; sub $3. When it broke $3, enough people were excited that one of them even took out a home equity loan to load up shares (oops!).
Speculation and panic buying pushed the share price way too high, and now the PPS is going back down to a more comfortable level.
Panic sales will boost volume and trigger a chain reaction. This board will come alive with people saying "load up while you can!" and then it will close below $3.
Will test $3 again soon. EOM.
Alternatively, if everyone digs in their heels and doesn't sell, we might be seeing the first part of a cup and handle forming. HMM.
Bearish reversal confirmation + MACD crossing soon IMO:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WMIH&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p99185164489
The momentum thus far has all been speculative. Now the flippers who got in > 3.3 are seeing red and some will panic, only driving this down further. Where's that guy who took out a home escrow loan to buy more at 3.4?
PAY ATTENTION to the hype so that you can avoid it. Remember my cardinal rule:
RSI DOESN'T LIE.
RSI + MACD says bearish reversal forming. I think this will test the 50-MA again this week, and if it dips below, then that dark cloud cover only needs a bearish doji to confirm a trend reversal.
Interestingly, the recent Mar 1st - now bullish swing reflects activity across markets, and not necessarily just WMIH. My prediction is unfortunately pessimistic, with the majority of equity here being dumped throughout March. This is opposite of the energy of the board, and I understand that this is probably hard to stomach.
Let's help each other out, here. Let's play Devil's Advocate on this so we can start managing our expectations.
Here's my hypothesis: MACD will cross by Friday and PPS will drop below 50-MA. This will trigger panic selling that will only push the PPS further down (or could level out back up at 50-MA with a lot of confidence from buyers).
Someone earlier said they were going to take out a home equity loan to buy more shares. In my opinion, that's a sure-fire road to potential suicide.
Buy as much as you can at these low prices, because this is one hell of a discount!
Look at the recent FY12 & Q4 reports:
4Q12 revenue of $754.2 million up 33% from 4Q11
4Q12 reported EPS of $0.70 up 63% from 4Q11
FY 2012 revenue of $2,730.3 million up 20% from FY 2011
FY 2012 reported EPS of $3.05 and FY 2012 pro-forma EPS of $2.99, both up 22% from FY 2011
Projected FY 2013 EPS between $3.45 and $3.55
Read More At IBD: http://news.investors.com/newsfeed-business-wire/020813-141433928-moodys-corporation-reports-results-for-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2012.aspx#ixzz2KLOiXCt3
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This is a SOLID company that isn't going to suffer from some stupid lawsuit.
Buy this while it's low!
Part hope, part play. I have my escrow shares from when I invested in K series back in 2007. I had a whole bunch of commons from the conversion and sold them all at a little above .80. I've been riding this stock since before a lot of people have been here, and for those who have been here as long as I have you know just as well as I do that this thing goes up and down and up and down all the time. It's not that I want back in, necessarily, but with 2013's new changes to short term taxation on married couples who make less than $72k/yr, there's no reason not to get back in and see if I can ride another WaMu wave.
After all, I have to make up for all those times I was doubling down on my WAMKQ shares, trying to lower my average cost basis while it was in the $2 and 1.50 range. That was a BIG mistake, but I never thought it would have all resorted to how it has. Oh well. We all live and learn, right? My fault for thinking I could ride out the thing.
Once the hype about this stock goes away -- sometime around June or July -- we will be able to get back in at .50ish IMO. Then we'll hold out until December, when more theories and conspiracies will surface, everyone will KNOW that Dec 31st is the deadline for a settlement, the PPS will shoot back up to .80, and we'll pocket 200% returns. Rinse. Repeat.
I can't believe this company is still trading. Tryst Capital Group, Eyecity.com, and Market 99 were all the brain child of terrible people who are subject to SEC litigation now. Please look at the SEC litigation filings from 2008-2009.
Are you kidding? You must be one of those traders who uses those silly "facts" and "educated guesses." No room for you here, sir. Only optimism and high expectations.
Escrow payouts July 18th, 85/35 of face value, with accrued dividends in the form of pez dispensers.
"Meanwhile the few of us who have been saying March 2014 at the earliest for a merger have yet to be proved wrong."
To be fair, that's like saying "The world is ending in 2014 and you can't prove me wrong so I must be right."
This is great -- repositioned on the drop, sold at the top, and will rinse and repeat once this goes back down to sub .7
Seems like everyone is holding their breath EOM
I haven't been to law school in years, but I'm pretty sure that not a single thing that people are mentioning here would be considered probative. Hearsay, yes. Probative, no.
Except, in discussion about banks being above the law, we're forgetting about the HSBC settlement for $1.9 billion, even though they were trafficking money to and from known terrorist organizations, even teaching some of them how to circumvent being flagged.
So no, no one is above the law. Corporations, however, can and are.
Even if WMIH "takes off," the underlying asset is not worth the forward looking P/E. And further, the P/E would be outrageous if this thing trades any higher than it is right now.
Too much investor hype will create a bubble, smart traders will pop it, and longs in denial will ride it out until the next big hype.
You were right. How did you know??? ;)
WMIH is preparing to reverse its bullish upward trend, IMO.
Expecting good news before the end of 2012 in the form of a tax-savings move on the part of JPM and other stakeholders in WMIH, traders accumulated shares from 0.45-.50 per share to 0.79-.82 per share in just thirty days. The first days of January the stock has teetered with low volume around the 0.80 mark.
RSI in December started out in an upward trend and continued to climb higher throughout the month, peaking at around 90 right around Christmas. RSI indicates the stock was overbought during the upward trend and the juxtaposition of the downward-trending RSI and upward-trending PPS indicates divergence.
The MACD has turned down and is setting up to cross the signal line.
However, the RSI and MACD are not complete indicators of a reversal, nor does only one week of this downward wedge forming. There's plenty of bias in my technicals because I have been involved in this stock for four years. The small downward wedge, for example, could be an indication of another uptrend. The diminishing trade volume per day is a good indication that shareholders are clinging to their shares and we might see higher bids in the future.
My analytical side says that this stock will slowly drift back to the .70s this month, but the side of me that's been here forever wants it to hold strong with a 0.795 support. Unfortunately, we all need to ask ourselves whether these points of resistances aren't just hopeful investors wishing for value when there is none.
Oops -- next trading day is what I meant. EOM
If it closes > .8 today, it will close .79 tomorrow. If it closes < .8 today, it will close .81 tomorrow. If it closes at .8 today, then it will close at .8 tomorrow. BWTFDIK.
You are entitled to your escrow shares and they wont go away if you trade your WMIH shares. I saw an opportunity to start playing the hype and I took it, but after four years if inactivity I'm only just now starting to ride the waves.
It's your call. I still consider myself a long because I've been involved in this thing from the start, but I don't want to keep watching this surge up and then fall back down and not do anything about it.
According to T. Ekram & K. Cots it is!
Payout estimates? EOM
In technical analysis, "Painting a W" indicates a strong tendency for derived trends to display disproportionate indications of underlying patterned activity. It was first discovered by Japanese trader Ese Napaj in 1960 in his famous technical analysis book, "Stock Trend Redundancies in Stock Trends." It's still one of the best selling books today on market analysis.
It's been trying to pierce through the .80 resistance line. Once it does, I'm sure .75 will be the next support. At the very least, .79/78 will trigger enough people to bail that it will drive the price down to a new support, and psychologically, .75 is the next logical level after .795/.80.
Let's not forget that SOMEONE wants these shares, and that SOMEONE has a lot of money. Anyone got the L2?
That 3567 @ .8 was me. I wanted to see how fast this thing is filling. And holy cow that's fast. Almost immediately.
You and me both. We can't ignore the non-financial motivations for all the activity Friday and the price run up to .88. End of year, expectations, hype, etc.
Who here thinks this will break the $1 resistance? And who wants to call out a support price? I'm going with a bottom of .75 today, highs of .89, with a closing price of around .79-.85.
I really, really hope I'm wrong.
After hours trading looks like no one is giving up EOM
We just have to smartly ride the waves. I'm sure this will get bloated out of proportion; remember to set your trades appropriately. IMHO, barring no news, January will be a steady decline back to our support levels.