Pure OTC manipulation. CN geopolitical pull down.
Recent Earnings were spectacular. Growth accelerating. Global expansion sooner than expected. Margins down slightly given competitive market price adjustments. Profitable with cash coffers growing. Soon this will be an internationally recognized brand. They are collaborating in all the right ways.
Once they pr a relist, the train will leave the station. Once the ticker hits the big board, it will be IPO ish event as it relates to volume, volatility, and institutional large share block grabs. The price will surge 20-30% minimum. A 25B market cap is reasonable in 2024 given their recent earnings and continued growth. They are the fastest growing retail storefront in the world and have quite easily taken down the world’s number one retail coffee brand in their homeland. It’s only a matter of time until the SP catches up with the fundamentals. My take is $100 plus sometime in 2024.
They were close 18 years ago while CX-717 was looking to clear phase II. During which one of the twelve test monkeys died and presented with unexplainable brain tissue abnormalities post mortem. An FDA letter and share price destruction soon followed. Five reverse splits and a zero lack of funding later….
They ain’t close to shit.
My thoughts are in my post.
The uplist is the major catalyst. It will be an IPO like event that will create significant upside based on recent fundamentals and year over year growth. Institutions will lock up shares and create price stability at a much higher level revealing a proper valuation. My educated guess would be 5/6X current revs. You can do the math.
China/SEC auditing FUD
Centurium’s hold on majority shares create some concerns given their leverage.
All you need to understand is the true valuation of the company given recent financials. 2.5x current sp seems reasonable today, which yields a 10 billion dollar valuation. That is 5x current rev’s, again reasonable given their growth rate. Peer comps will guide you.
China FUD will play a part in real upside potential until it’s no longer a CNBC headline.
The OTC playground we trade in will hold this down and will manipulate the sp until we relist. So the true valuation argument will not hold water until we relist and SEC/China regulatory FUD resolves. Centurium’s majority share hold creates some concern and uncertainty as well.
Relist will bring tutes and an IPO type surge. Tutes will lock down shares and stabilize the sp at a much higher level. Fundamentals will then create the trading range, along with continuing growth expectations and forward-looking global expansion.
Stagnant to negative growth, retracement in China, store count decreasing, bottom line shrinking. COG’s and unionized employees wreaking havoc on profit,
24 P/E, $100B MC. No room to grow.
incredible tech savvy growth model, expanding store count & revenues, growing bottom line, no debt, profitable, $4B MC which is ridiculous.
Catalysts galore….Relist, China FUD dissolves, COVID China lockdowns dissipate and reveal real rev potential, constantly increasing store count, global expansion vision, internally sourced and controlled COG’s, sustainable labor. All things needed in order to help maintain and grow margins.
Do the math. Clearly some risks remain, but the reward could be 10x in the not to distant future. Comparing the current state of this company to it’s notoriously ill-fated Fat Lu version that ran to $50 IPO, would be like comparing Hertz to Avis/Budget. This is the new Luckin. She is severely undervalued given some headwinds. If and when those headwinds resolve, this is a $40-50 stock with ease.
That’s the issue. The floor dropped out and in a few shorts weeks, years worth of gains were erased as the market wide reset takes place.
Unless you were smart, read the fed, and rolled over near the top, most recent investors have become bag holders for years, which is how long it will take to simply recover most of this three/four week mass exodus selloff.
Risky growth assets such as this may never recover fully. My portfolio is full of them. I’m not selling now either, but I’ve been thru this before. In 2000, I had 500k left in a trading account filled with dot com names that I thought had to come back from a recent 50-60% decline. They didn’t. Most went to zero. Will that happen to so many new tech growth names that looked to be great companies moving forward but are now being decimated?? Only time will tell. But the likes of peloton, zoom, beyond meat, teledoc , palantir, data storage and security, fintechs, paypal, draftkings, cannabis growth models, as well as hundreds more, are clearly in a camp of uncertainty. They will need cash infusions at higher yields to continue to grow. Valuations will take a hit and the road to profitability will become murky. Expansion projections may come to a halt as a result. Tough times ahead for risky assets. Unfortunately for me, I’m over loaded in risky assets tied to growth models that are yet to be profitable. Fook the fed.
You really think Luckin is a ghost company out to simply screw shareholders?
A little DD will show you their store fronts, closures and expansion, SEC settlement, JPL proceedings, fines levied, executive transitions since the fraud, bond reactions, timelines and restrictions for class actions, growth and profitability projections, recent earnings release and guidance, and overall state of the company since the fraud was revealed. I could list dozens of more examples of why this isn’t a ghost company out to fleece existing share and bond holders. There is a process and execution of a JPL appointed timeline that needs to play out before Luckin’s true valuation will take hold. Share price will react accordingly and create a realistic market cap once they relist and institutions along with big board players enter the security. The current valuation is silly, but we’re OTC and manipulation runs rampant.
Amazing how a guy, me, could take on a substantial risk by becoming heavily invested in a decimated company/stock that has fought its way back thru major obstacles and hurdles, that has become focused and forward looking, that has been getting things in order and looking so good to this point with a finish line in sight, only to have what were previously nonexistent major regulations directly targeted upon them, thereby blowing up their progress and momentum, and creating more headwinds. Unreal.
This downward move has nothing to do with the recent run up and progress of the company, but rather, has everything to do with the CCP leverage being put on these China based American listed companies and of course adding more issues, the new non-reporting regulatory legislation deadline and scare tactics that were recently introduced to Wall Street. If these lingering Wall Street headlines didn’t exist, Luckin would continue to stumble forward until the 2020 earnings were dropped.
There do exist other upcoming JPL ordered deadlines that could be potential speed bumps along the way, if not met, but aren’t, imo, a clear and present danger to the share price.
Once earnings are released, Luckin will be compliant and continue to trade as they are today, regardless of if the August reporting deadline is met. If they are unable to meet the deadline, there could be a selloff going into the halt and price freeze put on by some brokerage houses, but again, that freeze would be lifted once they were to become compliant thru updated and current reporting. The stock doesn’t become worthless, but many investors would rather move on than hold the risk thru a trading freeze imo.
Regardless of the earnings release status, the CCP issue tho, could continue to be the anchor holding back all American listed data collecting and education based Chinese companies. Luckin is a data collection company. That earmarks them, which is again unfortunate given how far we’ve come and what is potentially right around the corner for this company. Their earnings drop would and will create huge upside potential, but again, the overhanging cloud of the CCP stronghold on these companies could stifle much of that potential and overall gain should Luckin release the much anticipated 2020 and early 2021Q’s earnings sometime in the near future. I’ll call it what it is…bad luck, not bad Luckin.
My mistake was going in heavy premerger. Couldn’t put much more in afterwards to average down, so here I sit heavily under water with a big chunk tied up while the market rips and so many on my watch list are 2x, 3x since. Sold a lot of winners that continue to rip to buy into this. Tillman got me good. Patience will have to suffice.
Have a great fourth weekend!!
Market cap is pretty similar but yeah...agreed. Profitability and real growth should matter. Manipulation in the OTC and no real institutional involvement until the fed clears the regulatory hurdles for the industry. So all that combined has us in SP purgatory. Sux ballz