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Buy initiated
Target $197
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Tronox-initiated-Buy-BTIG-theflyonthewall-719706969.html?x=0&.v=1
175-200 puts warrants up 75-100% from here IMO.
We have 6.5 years left until warrant expiration...I'm in no hurry
been buying warrants on every dip....
troxw troxg
trades like stock. You usually end up getting an account statement afterwards telling you the strike and expiration date
5x normal vol and still 90 minutes of trading. We need an uplisting to get this moving.
Good financials, up on 3x normal volume at 11:20AM. Anyone listening to the Conference call. I am in germany and on my way home for the evening. Be back on later...lets move her up. Uplisting should be SOON.
To be honest I could care less about the past years. Like comparing apples and monkeys. I want to know past quarter and going forward. Everything else is noise IMO
one item to remember is KRO dropped upwards of 16% after reporting very strong earnings.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/05/04/kronos-worldwide-shares-plunged-then-recovered-wha.aspx
At a split adjusted low of 24, KRO is up 41% since this time.
Trying to figure out what they could say that is bad. As far as we know there have not been discreases in capacity....while at the same time Kronos and others have continually raised prices. Liabilities are limited as is debt. I suspect there is more upside than downside.
I still contend that Tronox is a buyout target before price raises too steeply.
KRO for example (because I know them best) has an existing line of credit, stock at 52-week high makes stock deals more likely and could benefit from the chloride process for lower cost product. Tronox is not too big to swallow at this point. Should they continue to be profitable, takeovers become less likely IMO. Sooner than later is the time to strike. The industry is perfectly situated for consolidation into 3-4 bigger players.
All Tronoxers (just made that up)
Today is the moment of truth. Based on what all other Ti2Ox producers are saying I expect some impressive past results and VERY favorable going-forward results.
Recall earlier this year from Barrons
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970204331604576104252848553210.html#articleTabs_panel_article%3D1
Tronox [TROXV] also manufactures titanium dioxide. It is expected to emerge from bankruptcy protection soon and is trading on a when-issued basis at 94. Tronox succumbed to the bankruptcy process because of legacy environmental liabilities with which it was saddled during its spinoff from Kerr-McGee [KMG] in 2006. These liabilities were from other businesses and should have stayed with Kerr-McGee, which also saddled Tronox with too much debt. Bankruptcy really is a cleansing process. The bankruptcy plan set up a trust for the environmental liabilities.
How big were the liabilities?
Witmer: They put about $270 million into the trust. A lot of Tronox debt has been converted into common stock. Once the bankruptcy plan is affirmed, there will be 15 million shares trading, for an equity capitalization of $1.4 billion. The company will have about $400 million of net debt.
Tronox's plants are valuable because they produce titanium dioxide using a proprietary chloride method, which is lower-cost and produces a grade required by certain end users. Only five companies have this technology. Tronox's joint venture in Australia also mines the key raw materials needed for production. It protects the supply source, and partially insulates the company from increasing costs.
What could Tronox earn post-bankruptcy?
Witmer: Earnings power in the next year is between $8.50 and $10 a share, rising to $11 or $12 as titanium-dioxide pricing reaches a level commensurate with the capital investment required. This squares with our estimate of replacement value of $100 to $125 a share. Our target for Tronox is 120 to 140 a share. (MY COMMENT: This assumes about P/E of 14 based only on REPLACEMENT value..not necessarily earnings power and the increasing difficulty and capital required to 'replace' an asset. KRO trades at PE of 24. Assuming a PE of say 20 puts TROX shares in the range of 170-200 this year. Perhaps 220-240 in out years.)
Black: How many years of rutile reserves do they have?
Witmer: They are in a good spot for as much as seven years.
Best of luck.
what is the benefit...other than the positive of cyclone being fully reporting?
or reverse split 3:1, 4:1, ....
next several years at least.
Alive and well...but time zone makes trading a bit more tricky
what is the outstanding shares?
been buying warrants hand over fist. My moment of truth comes next week.
See you all then.
BTW, I think we get FANTASTIC numbers and a hint of much better things to come.
KRO trading at 32 (64 pre split)
Relative valuation of trox puts us into the 180-220 range
happy 4th
market downdraft
anyway, kro down about 12.5% during the same period TROX down 10%
not a big deal
I have done numerous calculations for a reasonable value for TRONOX
I beleive we could easily see 200 a share once the first financials come out
I see the lack of trades as a good sign. Like I said before, only about 1M in warrants outstanding. They are good for seven years. If your time horizon is at least a year I believe you will see double the current price. Of course everything is based on the health of the global economy. However, tioxide producers have shown a STRONG ability to raise prices on an almost monthly basis. Hard to believe that Tronox is not doing the same.
Worse case scenario is an extended downturn, is it really going to last globally for seven years?
i've flipped them several times. But right now I am holding warrants.
i contacted IR about two weeks ago. They continued to work on the required financial docs for uplisting. I speculate that tronox quarter will end within the next few weeks. Perhaps then we get the first quarterly report post bk.
remember only about 1M shares of warrants. Its not that hard for a large holder to move this any which way.
thats what happens when you're down 50% in 2 trading days.
Absolute Priority out the window was always our way in. 10% recovery and A&M never hears from me again
those are obviously pre-bk estimates.
Seriously
that was me counting the total and we had well over 500M Face value
always plenty of liquidity when you are selling for a 1 day 30% loss
exactly...I stopped posting yesterday because the rhetoric on commons was too much misinformation/disinformation.
A fool and his money...
I have been following Lehman since the DAY it filed for BK. Commons are valued more for TWO reasons 1) percieved liquidity and 2) lack of knowledge.
Go to Yahoo and type in lehman...ONLY 4 issues come up. Type in Lehman Brothers and 8 come up. Most retail investors are not aware or simply don't understand Preferred Shares or Capital Trusts. They think they are bonds or something else.
In my opinion, the fact that commons are worth anything BOGGLES the mind. There are billions of dollars of claims ahead of them. As it stands now the capital trusts and preferred shares get nothing...but we have more of a legal standing than commons do.
J's in my opinion offer a better shot than commons and the highest float of any of the preferred or Capital trusts.
If you want to buy a capital trust, YOU must by at the ask. Shares are simply too tight.
Kristallweizen, although total float of c/ts is 48M, the number of shares available is likely less than half that. I personnally know many (including myself) who bought c/ts in 08/09 in the sub-penny to 2-3 cent range. We locked up more than 50% of the shares at last count a year ago.
the simple fact is only 66M shares. Most of them tied up from when we bought in in 2008 and 2009. If you want to purchase J's you have to hit the ask. There is no way around it. Anything else and you may find yourself sitting and waiting. The preferred shares trade at bid and ask...in huge percentage differences. Not much in betweeen typically
Its not unusual to see the ask 10-30% higher than last trade.
so only down 20%
not bad for 30 minutes worth of effort
have shares in EVERYTHING except LBHGP (never could get a fill)
Creditors...of which Preferred shares and capital trusts are in line ahead of commons.
Biggest Lehman asset is the NOL. At last count between 40-50 BILLION
Wamu is about 4-6 if my memory serves me
Our NOL situtation is not unlike WAMU. I am not sure what exactly happends with CTS and preferred shares if a lehman shell survives with the NOLS.
BTW out NOL is an order of magnitude larger than WAMU. What would someone pay for 48B in NOLS?
i think the bulk of this wrapp up in 2011. Recovery may be delayed after that depending on the exact plan and economic condition.
Just a 1% recovery is a 733% upside from here.
Ahh my old graph...I've missed thee
LEHJQ is the most liquid of the preferred and capital shares. More liquidity means smallers bid/ask gap. On the capital trusts you will likely have to buy at the ask...which is sometimes much higher than the curent price. SHares on Capital trusts are valued and in very tight supply. They may not be trading at a great amount but try buying some. That is the true test of value!
so not based on any actual information other than pumping?
Anywhy exactly would this run to 25 cents or 1 dollar?