Quantumscape is using AI to improve throughput and limit defects in a highly systematic troubleshooting process.  They are the real deal as demonstrated by their actions as opposed to words.  Sure they have challenges ahead but they are the closest to bringing an attractive, marketable, revolutionary product to fruition.  It will be less expensive, safer, sustainable over the life of the vehicle and far more efficient than current technology.  Where others make unfounded claims not really focusing on all necessary variables— Quantumscape is systematically moving through the entire variable spectrum to success using the best system, the best feedback, the best technology, the best scientific approach in the business.   Patience.  It’s coming.

Well something is happening.  Let's hope this is the beginning.  

Challenges for Hydrogen:Current State and Future Outlook:

https://www.google.com/search?q=musk%20and%20anode%20free.solid%20state%20battery&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-m
Click show more and read down.

Sorry copy paste not taking.  Essentially says Tesla is partnering with QuantumScape who will deliver lithium-metal as the anode?

I wasn't aware of this partnership.  Is this public knowledge?

From Reddit
Thanks for creating this community u/Coffee_Fuelled, I found Ilika about two months ago, did some research and plunged in with my money!
I think Ilika is a hidden gem and want to share some of my DD here :)
Some highlights from Ilika's history:
May 2004: Spins out from the School of Chemistry at the University of Southampton.• ?Feb 2008: Partners with Toyota to explore alternative automotive battery materials; has some joint IP in multiple countries. Both companies are free to use the IP independently.• ?May 2010: IPO on LSE AIM• ?Somewhere in 2010: Abandons automotive battery sector and shifts focus to IoT with micro batteries (Stereax series)• ?....• ?Does a bunch of things over the years with product launches and improvements of the Stereax series (no mass production)• ?....• ?Jun 2018: Restarts exploring automotive battery with experience gained from prior years, using same chemical compounds but a different manufacturing technology (Goliath series). This is mostly funded by UK's Faraday battery challenge and they partner up with some notable companies: Honda, Ricardo and McLaren.• ?Apr 2019: Launches Stereax M50 which I think is pretty impressive, especially the C-rate and cell size. However, the energy density is below 200 Wh/L (Li-ion battery is 250+ Wh/L).• ?Sep 2019: They get a new partner for Goliath: Jaguar Land Rover. Also, they open their Pre-Pilot manufacturing line.• ?Nov 2020: Finalizing a lease for Stereax manufacturing scale-up. They plan a 70x increase in production capacity by the end of the 2021; from 50 to 3500 wafers/yr.• ?Feb 2021: Completed lease of the new Stereax manufacturing facility with progress on track.
Present times:

They plan to be cash flow positive by 2022-2023.• ?They currently sell Stereax M250 from their pilot line and are in the final stages of development of M50/M300 which will be ready for evaluation Summer 2021.• ?They are soon to release performance figures for their single cell Goliath pouches. They have gone from exponential improvements in the early days to linear improvements right now.• ?They plan to scale up Goliath by beginning of 2024 with a public funded manufacturing facility and plan to support volumes for some consumer electronics and perhaps 1-2 McLaren car models at that scale.
competition:

?I don't think they have much competition in the Stereax segment, however, industry needs to catch up and I believe the potential is huge. Cymbet seems to be the only one here, however, they seem to have stalled with innovation since 2013.• ?The biggest and loudest competitor for Goliath is QuantumScape in the automotive segment. Based on what I've gathered so far, QS is burning a LOT of money for scaling up manufacturing and hiring and they aren't much far off from Ilika with the progress. We'll know for certain when Ilika releases their performance figures for Goliath.• ?Solid Power is another famous Goliath competitor, however, they use a Sulfide-based electrolyte which has a lower volumetric density.
Overall thoughts:
I think Ilika is a company with great potential, especially Goliath for the EV sector. However, I feel they are a bit conservative in the development process and could be left behind as competition for EV batteries has gotten intense in recent times. Having said that, I believe this is a safe investment if we assume Stereax becomes the only commercial success for them. What are your thoughts?

From Reddit
Joe Spak of UBS, “if you get the performance you need or want out of their(CATL/BYD) evolving (batteries), you know, technology, then why would like, even if there is a solid state solution, what becomes the advantage to move to that versus if the performance and costs are are similar?”
Siva talked about these companies not providing the data, and asking the question of what they are compromising to realize these results.  But most importantly was Siva’s first response, “we are a different paradigm. We start at a different part in the s curve. Our job is to make sure we continue to push the frontier on the solid state battery, which is what makes us feel all the more convicted in our beliefs that we need to be there as soon as possible in high volume because we have a solution that the industry needs to replace internal combustion engines.”
QS batteries represent the beginning of a new S-curve – one that starts at a higher performance baseline (e.g. ~300 Wh/kg) where Li-ion is plateauing, and promises further improvements from there. The next question is: how might this solid-state technology evolve over the next 20 years, and how will its improvement curve compare to the Li-ion curve that preceded it?
“I think the reason all of our customers keep coming back to us (QS) is because none of these answers that they hear (from competitor battery developers) is satisfactory to them.”  This suggests QS’s OEM partners are testing CATL & BYD batteries, but they’re not seeing the results, and they’re not buying into the competitor hype and are still hot for QS technology.

From Reddit:
It begins......
(This is from a new Advertisement VW has released)
Introducing Quantum Drive: A New Benchmark in Luxury EV Powertrains
The standout feature is the powertrain. Volkswagen is developing two electrified options: a plug-in hybrid system based on a 4.0-liter V8 shared with Porsche and Lamborghini and a fully electric version using the company's next-generation Quantum Drive system.
The electric Phaeton is projected to deliver up to 900 horsepower and a driving range exceeding 2,000 km (1,242 miles) on a single charge under WLTP standards, enabled by advanced solid-state battery technology. These specifications could place it ahead of current electric competitors like the Tesla Model S and Mercedes EQS.

"If you want to make a big step change in cost, energy per mass and energy per volume, the biggest change you could make is to eliminate the anode,” Tim Holme, the co-founder and chief technology officer of battery start-up QuantumScape told Inside EV.

https://insideevs.com/news/755188/anode-free-ev-batteries-quantumscape/#:~:text=One%20of%20the%20promising%20contenders,and%20lifespan%20are%20all%20impressive.

This may have already been posted.  My apologies if it has.
https://www.google.com/search?q=quantumscape%20ceo%20video&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b-1-m#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:e95a2da2,vid:X2Zyl4fHHKw,st:0

From Reddit


 I found Ilika about two months ago, did some research and plunged in with my money!

I think Ilika is a hidden gem and want to share some of my DD here :)

**Some highlights from Ilika's history:**

* May 2004: Spins out from the School of Chemistry at the University of Southampton.
* Feb 2008: Partners with Toyota to explore alternative automotive battery materials; has some joint IP in multiple countries. Both companies are free to use the IP independently.
* May 2010: IPO on LSE AIM
* Somewhere in 2010: Abandons automotive battery sector and shifts focus to IoT with micro batteries (***Stereax*** series)
* ....
* Does a bunch of things over the years with product launches and improvements of the Stereax series (no mass production)
* ....
* Jun 2018: Restarts exploring automotive battery with experience gained from prior years, using same chemical compounds but a different manufacturing technology (***Goliath*** series). This is mostly funded by UK's Faraday battery challenge and they partner up with some notable companies: Honda, Ricardo and McLaren.
* Apr 2019: Launches Stereax M50 which I think is pretty impressive, especially the C-rate and cell size. However, the energy density is below 200 Wh/L (Li-ion battery is 250+ Wh/L).
* Sep 2019: They get a new partner for Goliath: Jaguar Land Rover. Also, they open their Pre-Pilot manufacturing line.
* Nov 2020: Finalizing a lease for Stereax manufacturing scale-up. They plan a 70x increase in production capacity by the end of the 2021; from 50 to 3500 wafers/yr.
* [Feb 2021](https://otp.investis.com/clients/uk/ilika_plc/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=870&newsid=1455533): Completed lease of the new Stereax manufacturing facility with progress on track.

**Present times:**

* They plan to be cash flow positive by 2022-2023.
* They currently sell Stereax M250 from their pilot line and are in the final stages of development of M50/M300 which will be ready for evaluation Summer 2021.
* They are soon to release performance figures for their single cell Goliath pouches. They have gone from exponential improvements in the early days to linear improvements right now.
* They plan to scale up Goliath by beginning of 2024 with a public funded manufacturing facility and plan to support volumes for some consumer electronics and perhaps 1-2 McLaren car models at that scale.

**Competition:**

* I don't think they have much competition in the Stereax segment, however, industry needs to catch up and I believe the potential is huge. Cymbet seems to be the only one here, however, they seem to have stalled with innovation since 2013.
* The biggest and loudest competitor for Goliath is QuantumScape in the automotive segment. Based on what I've gathered so far, QS is burning a LOT of money for scaling up manufacturing and hiring and they aren't much far off from Ilika with the progress. We'll know for certain when Ilika releases their performance figures for Goliath.
* Solid Power is another famous Goliath competitor, however, they use a Sulfide-based electrolyte which has a lower volumetric density.

**Overall thoughts:**

I think Ilika is a company with great potential, especially Goliath for the EV sector. However, I feel they are a bit conservative in the development process and could be left behind as competition for EV batteries has gotten intense in recent times. Having said that, I believe this is a safe investment if we assume Stereax becomes the only commercial success for them. What are your thoughts?

From Reddit

From Reddit 

Ilika PLC CEO Discusses 2024 Revenue Growth and Strategic Milestones

Investors can participate in a Q&A session with Ilika on 26 April at 11am BST on the Investor Meet Company (IMC) platform.

The news is important for investors and stakeholders interested in Ilika PLC, as it provides insight into the company's financial performance, key milestones, and technological advancements. Additionally, it offers an opportunity for investors to engage with the company during the upcoming Q&A session. The progress and growth discussed by Graeme Purdy have the potential to impact the energy storage and technology sectors, making it relevant for industry professionals and enthusiasts. 

Read More https://newsramp.com/curated-news/ilika-plc-ceo-discusses-2024-revenue-growth-and-strategic-milestones/f1a13b5b32e59ab827d018296f412e2f

Another interesting valuation post from Reddit.

Very good, detailed timeline from poster on Reddit

The Hidden Story of QuantumScape and Volkswagen: A Speculative Analysis from 2022 to 2025 and Beyond

Understanding QuantumScape’s (QS) true progress requires a different way of thinking than just taking their public statements at face value. The company, like any highly scrutinized tech firm, carefully controls its communication. They follow a pattern of delayed confirmation, meaning that major breakthroughs are often hinted at in earnings calls but only officially announced 1-2 quarters later.

This means that by studying past communication patterns, we can predict what has already happened behind closed doors but has not yet been disclosed. When we overlay this method with Volkswagen’s own shifting EV strategy, we begin to see a clearer picture of what’s really going on.

**Introduction: How to Read Between the Lines**

QuantumScape’s (QS) journey is not just a story of technological breakthroughs—it is a story of corporate strategy, controlled communication, and hidden clues within public disclosures.

Unlike many companies that openly promote progress, QS follows a pattern of delayed confirmation, where key milestones—while hinted at in earnings calls—are only officially announced one or two quarters later.

This means that to truly understand QS’s trajectory, we must track how discussions in earnings calls translate into later confirmations in shareholder letters. When we overlay this with Volkswagen’s shifting EV strategy, a clearer picture emerges of where QS stands today and where it is likely headed.

**2022: The Over-Promise, the Lawsuits, and the Start of Controlled Messaging**

QuantumScape entered 2022 with immense investor expectations, driven by the promise that its solid-state battery technology could revolutionize the EV industry. However, the gap between ambition and execution led to investor lawsuits, leadership changes, and a shift in communication strategy.

**1. The Lawsuits and How They Changed QS’s Messaging**

QuantumScape was sued by investors in early 2022 for allegedly misrepresenting how close it was to commercialization. This led to a clear shift in how the company communicated progress:

* **Before 2022**, QS proactively forecasted its future goals.

* **After 2022**, QS only confirmed milestones after they were fully validated, meaning that if something was mentioned in an earnings call, it had likely already been achieved months before.

**2. Leadership Change: Why Did Jagdeep Singh Step Down?**

Throughout 2022, Jagdeep Singh was the face of QuantumScape, but his departure in early 2023 was a pivotal moment.

* Earnings Call Mentions (2022-2023): Jagdeep was prominently featured, but discussions became more focused on execution rather than vision.

* Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024): By mid-2023, Jagdeep had stepped down, and Dr. Siva Sivaram had taken over as CEO—a clear move toward an execution-oriented leadership team.

* Why It Matters: Jagdeep was the visionary who got QS to this point, but Siva was brought in to industrialize the technology—a sign that QS was shifting toward practical commercialization.

**3. Volkswagen’s Strategic Pivot: PowerCo’s Creation**

At the same time, Volkswagen launched PowerCo, its in-house battery subsidiary, marking a shift from investing in battery startups to directly managing battery production.

* **Earnings Call Mentions (2022):** PowerCo was briefly mentioned as an R&D partner.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024):** PowerCo evolved into a full-fledged industrialization partner, with QS integrating PowerCo engineers into its production process.

This meant that QuantumScape was no longer just a research project for Volkswagen—it was now a key part of their future EV roadmap.

**2023: The Silent Acceleration — Progress That Was Hidden in Plain Sight**

By mid-2023, QuantumScape had entered what we now recognize as the silent acceleration phase. While the company publicly downplayed progress, it was quietly reaching major milestones behind the scenes.

**1. QS-0: The First Sign of Real Production**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (2022-2023):** QS-0 was first hinted at as a pilot production line.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2023-2024):** QS-0 was later confirmed as QuantumScape’s first real step into industrial-scale production.

Implication: If QS-0 was mentioned in transcripts before being confirmed in letters, then other major manufacturing developments (like Cobra) are likely already further along than QS admits.

**2. PowerCo’s Growing Involvement**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (2023):** PowerCo was described as a collaborator, but no clear role was defined.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (2024):** By early 2024, PowerCo had evolved into a strategic industrialization partner, with engineers embedded inside QS’s facility.

**Implication:** Volkswagen wasn’t just testing QS’s technology anymore—it was preparing for real production.

**2024: PowerCo’s Deal and Volkswagen’s EV Retreat—But Not from Solid-State**

By mid-2024, Volkswagen’s PowerCo officially signed a $130 million licensing deal with QuantumScape to industrialize QS’s battery technology.

**1. The PowerCo Deal Was Signed Earlier Than Announced**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q1-Q2 2024):** PowerCo was described as "expanding its collaboration" with QS.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3 2024):** By mid-2024, the PowerCo deal was officially announced—meaning it was likely finalized months earlier.

**2. Cobra Production Equipment: Another Case of Delayed Confirmation**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q2-Q3 2024):** Cobra was hinted at as a manufacturing enabler, but QS avoided specifics.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q4 2024):** Cobra was confirmed to be operational, proving that its impact was already being felt before QS disclosed it.

**Implication:** If Cobra was downplayed before being confirmed, then the B1 sample program is likely already further along than QS admits.

**2025: What Has Already Happened But Hasn’t Been Announced Yet**

Based on QS’s historical pattern of delayed confirmations, we can logically infer what has likely already happened behind the scenes but has yet to be publicly disclosed.

**1. Cobra Will Be Fully Ready for Scaled Production by Late 2025**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024):** QS confirmed Cobra was operational but avoided discussing its throughput capacity.

* **Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3-Q4 2025):** Cobra will likely be confirmed as fully scaled by late 2025.

* **Why This Matters:** Cobra is the final missing piece for high-throughput separator production, a prerequisite for mass production in 2026.

**2. B1 Samples Are Already Functional**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024):** QS stated that B1 samples were a goal for 2025 but did not confirm performance.

* **Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q2-Q3 2025):** Given past patterns, B1 samples are likely already functional, and QS is waiting for external validation before announcing success.

**3. Mass Production Will Start in 2026, Not 2028**

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q4 2024):** QS maintains a **2027-2028 mass production timeline**.

* **Expected Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q4 2025):** If PowerCo is already preparing production infrastructure, mass production is likely to start in 2026, not 2028.

**Final Takeaways: 2025 Will Be the Year of Confirmations**

QuantumScape is further along than it appears, and 2025 will be the year that confirms it.

* B1 samples are already functional—confirmation expected mid-2025.

* Cobra will be fully scaled by late 2025, enabling mass production.

* At least one major OEM deal is finalized—announcement likely by mid-2025.

* Mass production will start in 2026, not 2028—expect an acceleration announcement in late 2025.

**The key to understanding QS is seeing what was discussed in transcripts first and later confirmed in letters. Now let's move to Cobra and PowerCo:**

**Speculating on PowerCo’s Cobra Orders and Installations: The Missing Piece**

Up to this point, we have established that QuantumScape follows a pattern of delayed confirmation, meaning that key developments are first hinted at in earnings calls, then officially confirmed in shareholder letters a quarter or two later. This pattern applies to everything from leadership changes (Jagdeep to Siva), the QS-0 pilot line, AI-driven Raptor defect detection, and the PowerCo licensing deal.

However, one major missing piece is whether PowerCo has already ordered and begun installing Cobra equipment for separator production—a critical step in bringing QuantumScape’s solid-state battery technology to mass production.

**The Case for PowerCo Already Ordering and Installing Cobra**

**1. QuantumScape Has Already Delivered and Installed Cobra at Its Own Facility**

* **Q2-Q3 2024 Earnings Calls:** Cobra was mentioned vaguely as a next-generation separator processing tool but without clear installation details.

* **Q4 2024 Shareholder Letter:** Cobra was officially confirmed to be operational at QuantumScape’s facility.

**Pattern Match:** Given that Cobra was declared operational by Q4 2024, it was likely functional earlier in 2024, even before the PowerCo licensing deal was announced.

If Cobra was already working at QuantumScape, PowerCo would have been aware of its capabilities before signing the licensing deal in July 2024.

**2. PowerCo’s Licensing Deal Implies a Pre-Existing Plan for Cobra Integration**

In July 2024, PowerCo finalized a licensing deal with QuantumScape to manufacture up to 40 GWh annually, with an option to expand to 80 GWh.

* **Earnings Call Mentions (Q1-Q2 2024):** PowerCo’s involvement was described as “expanding collaboration” with QS.

* **Shareholder Letter Confirmation (Q3 2024):** The licensing deal was officially announced, confirming PowerCo’s commitment to industrialization.

**Pattern Match:** Since PowerCo would need to scale separator production to meet its manufacturing targets, it would not have signed the deal without knowing that Cobra was ready for deployment.

**3. Volkswagen’s “Walk Back” on Broader Battery Investments, Except QS**

In 2024, Volkswagen scaled back some of its EV battery investments, postponing PowerCo’s IPO and reducing commitments to conventional lithium-ion gigafactories.

However, Volkswagen continued to move forward with QuantumScape, integrating PowerCo engineers directly into QS’s facility.

**Pattern Match:** If PowerCo was slowing down other battery investments but staying aggressive with QuantumScape, this suggests that they already had a clear timeline for bringing Cobra online.

PowerCo likely did not commit to licensing QS’s technology unless it had already planned its own Cobra installations.

**4. Cobra’s Scaling Timeline and PowerCo’s Likely Orders**

If we apply the historical delay between QS’s internal deployments and public confirmations, we can reverse-engineer when PowerCo likely placed its orders:

* **Q1-Q2 2024:** QuantumScape was already testing and refining Cobra internally (but had not confirmed it publicly).

* **Q2-Q3 2024:** PowerCo negotiated and signed the licensing deal, knowing that Cobra would be crucial for scaling separator production.

* **Q4 2024:** QuantumScape confirmed Cobra’s operational status, meaning it had likely been functional for months.

* **Q1-Q2 2025 (Speculative):** PowerCo has already placed orders for Cobra equipment and is in the process of installing it at its facilities.

**5. Why Cobra’s Deployment at PowerCo Hasn’t Been Publicly Confirmed Yet**

* QuantumScape does not confirm developments until they are fully locked in.

* PowerCo operates within Volkswagen, which does not typically reveal procurement details in real-time.

* If PowerCo is already installing Cobra, they would wait until the system is fully functional before announcing it.

**Speculative Conclusion: PowerCo’s Cobra Installations Are Likely Underway**

Given QS’s pattern of delayed confirmations, the PowerCo licensing agreement, and Volkswagen’s continued commitment to solid-state despite broader EV slowdowns, the most logical conclusion is that PowerCo has already ordered Cobra equipment and is in the process of installing it.

**What This Means for the 2025 Timeline**

* Q2-Q3 2025: PowerCo’s Cobra installations should be completed, allowing for scaled separator production.

* Q4 2025: PowerCo publicly confirms Cobra deployment, coinciding with a likely update on B1 sample progress and mass production timelines.

* 2026: First large-scale solid-state production begins at PowerCo’s facilities.

**Final Thought: We Are Closer to Mass Production Than People Think**

If PowerCo has already ordered and installed Cobra, then QuantumScape’s technology is much closer to real-world deployment than publicly disclosed.

The key question now is: **Will QuantumScape accelerate its 2027-2028 production timeline to 2026?** If the speculation holds true, the answer is likely **yes**.

 

EV's will be adopted when solid state batteries allow for much shorter charge times and much longer cycle miles.  Even if the Biden administration remained in office and continued building out infrastructure -- that's putting the cart before the horse.  Once the technology provides reason for significant demand increase -- whoever is in charge will be forced to continue the build out of infrastructure.  Need the battery technology improved significantly.  QS is working on that.

It was strange that OncXerna closed the doors when I was questioning with the SEC why Oncxerna seemed to be slow walking Bavi with exclusively never ending phase 2 trials.  Rolf indicated he was out of the loop but also found it strange that Bavi was still in phase 2 trials.   And yes it was phase 3 trials that revenues would begin to be paid out to Avid.  In my opinion this was all very strange.  


Now it could be OncXerna just couldn't finance a phase 3 trial with royalties being paid out.   But with the low ball buyout I just have to wonder.

Bavi being revived -- Very Predictable.  Yes this was all planned. Just as a reminder.

Royalty rate:

9,00 %; 11,00 %; 13,00 %; 14,00 %; 16,00 %

Base:

Net sale

Other payments:

Licensee shall pay to licensor the following payments: $3,000,000; $3,000,000; $2,000,000; Licensee shall pay to licensor the following milestone payments: $1,000,000; $2,000,000; $8,000,000; $5,000,000; $4,000,000; $30,000,000; $25,000,000;no $15,000,000; $5,000,000; In the event of licensee's sublicensing, licensee shall pay to licensor the following sublicensing revenue share percentage payments as follows: an amount equal to 0,30 multiplied by aggregate Phase II sublicensing revenue received by licensee and its affiliates (from or in all countries and territories) during the applicable quarter, or an amount equal to 0,15 multiplied by aggregate Phase III sublicensing revenue received by licensee and its affiliates (from or in all countries and territories) during the applicable quarter.

Compensation details:

Licensee shall pay to licensor royalty fees as follows: an amount equal to 9% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) of up to $100,000,000 of each product; An amount equal to 11% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) from $100,000,001 to $200,000,000 of each product; An amount equal to 13% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) from $200,000,001 to $500,000,000 of each product; An amount equal to 14% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) from $500,000,001 to $1,000,000,000 for each product; An amount equal to 16% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) equal to or greater than $1,000,000,001 for each product.

Also the manufacturing rights were Avid's!

Sorry was not me.  Problem has been fixed.   Thanks

My bet no call -- just submit the quarterly results  to meet the SEC requirements.  

A public company must still report quarterly earnings even when a bid to take them private is in process, as the requirement to file quarterly reports with the SEC applies to all publicly traded companies regardless of potential privatization efforts; they are obligated to continue reporting until the transaction is officially completed and the company is delisted from the stock exchange. 

I agree with the short interest.  Even if you could find the names -- the entity could be shorting under 5 different aliases.  

Concerning private placement of a note in most cases you cannot easily find the name of the individual who participated in a private placement with a company you are a shareholder with because private placements are confidential transactions with limited public disclosure requirements, unless you contact the company directly and inquire about the details of the placement.

Should be able to get names of stockholders including note holder.  But the by-laws have restrictions.  See By-laws below

Concerning who is shorting our stock not sure that can be done outside of getting current short interest

List of Stockholders Entitled to Vote. The Corporation shall prepare no later than the tenth day before each meeting of stockholders, a complete list of the stockholders entitled to vote at the meeting (provided, however, if the record date for determining the stockholders entitled to vote is less than ten (10) days before the date of the meeting, the list shall reflect the stockholders entitled to vote as of the tenth day before the meeting date), arranged in alphabetical order, and showing the address of each stockholder and the number of shares registered in the name of each stockholder. Such list shall be open to the examination of any stockholder, for any purpose germane to the meeting for a period of ten (10) days ending on the day before the meeting date (i) on a reasonably accessible electronic network, provided that the information required to gain access to such list is provided with the notice of meeting or (ii) during ordinary business hours at the principal place of business of the Corporation.

Section 9.               Stock Ledger. The stock ledger of the Corporation shall be the only evidence as to who are the stockholders entitled to examine the stock ledger, the list required by Section 8 of this Article IIor the books of the Corporation, or to vote in person or by proxy at any meeting of stockholders.

Personally I don’t believe anything nefarious is going on. It was a major oversight. It can be overcome. They have some work to do.

If this is important to shareholders and there is a level of uncertainty or concern…

“I would really like to know if the holders of the 7% convertible note(the financiers) are the same as those who held the original 1.25% convertible.....that would be very very telling(and may warrant an investigation?)!”

“To request a list of stockholders of record, including convertible note holders, from a company where you are a shareholder, you should contact the company's investor relations department or corporate secretary directly and formally request access to the shareholder register; be prepared to provide proof of your share ownership and explain a legitimate reason for needing the information, as companies may not readily disclose this data to all shareholders without a valid purpose.”

If you provide a valid reason and provide proof of your share ownership and they refuse to give you the requested information well then you likely have your answer. There should be no valid reason to hide this information. Just basic shareholder rights by law.

Why can Avid still outperform our expectations?

:: interest rates should continue to trend downward through 2025 making the investment environment in the entire industry more robust from the small biotech to the large pharmaceutical company. That in turn will boost the entire CDMO industry. Avid should benefit.

:: The American Made Pharmaceuticals Act would incentivize domestic production of critical medicines and help prevent drug shortages by securing the pharmaceutical supply chain here in the US. That will result in more demand for US manufacturing. Avid should benefit.

:: CDMOs will likely remain key partners for pharmaceutical companies and are expected to gain further relevance through their increasing technological expertise and know-how along the value chain. Avid should benefit.

:: Expansion is now complete and the focus can now return to growing the business. The expansion complexity, by all accounts, was managed pretty well. Not an easy process. So now all that energy can turn back to filling capacity.

:: Avid has indicated that they secured contracts with 6 or 7 companies with later stage products that can commercialize upon any or all of them being approved. Much higher volume potential for these products. Time will tell. And it does take time.

:: Avid has stated that they have secured at least 2 recent larger pharmaceutical company contracts that can potentially result in further draw down of capacity.

;; Success tends to be get more success. As momentum gains occur stability will attract further contracts. It happens in every business.

Yes there have been bumps in the road. Investment dried up at an inopportune time. Yes they have made at least one egregious mistake. But the tailwinds are once again at their backs. They can turn this around. We have every right to question. We have every right to critique. And we should also not lose sight of the potential future in our investment. They can out-perform our expectations. I, for one, still believe this ship will be turned around.

The shareholders meeting was a Non event. No questions that were taken anyway. Not certain if any were asked. They had control of that, of course.

Somebody should inform them that they can live stream the meeting and also invite shareholders to attend. They are not mutually exclusive. I don’t think they wanted questions from a live audience this year — which is fine. As long as they know the seriousness of the loan debacle and have plans to rectify as much as possible as soon as possible.

There is no question they were played big time by the note holder whomever that was. The note holder was likely laughing all the way to the bank as they were shorting the stock prior to calling them on the discrepancy. And, as we all know, the stock was shorted big-time. It seems there should have been a requirement for the note holder to call them on the oversight as soon as it happened so the stock couldn’t be played. That seems like a practical legal approach.

On to quarterly results. That is the true measure anyway. Hope to see progress. Hard to look past that serious oversight but there is no other choice. Let’s turn it around Avid.

Tracy is the president and founder of Atrium Transformations. She left to start her own business. I can see that as alluring for any inspired individual. I know the allure of that calling.

I agree wholeheartedly on the convertible.

I’m not so sure that turnover at the higher levels of the organization is a tell tale sign of problems. I found this below. It’s a very competitive industry for talent.

The CDMO Industry Landscape

The resulting need for talent has created many new opportunities for people in the industry and resulted in very low unemployment in our sector. That, in turn, has resulted in an increase in staff turnover for many companies as employees have had more opportunities to move on to bigger positions.Jan 15, 2019

I found this supporting information from 2020. So yes anticipated product approvals also played an important role in their decision.

https://www.bioprocessintl.com/facilities-capacity/avid-contemplates-pulling-the-trigger-on-capacity-expansion

“The agreements include the addition of one of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies to Avid’s growing list of customers, as well as the expansion of the relationship with one of the company’s existing biotechnology customers,” Kinjerski said on the call
She added that on top of revenue generated by expanded client relationships, “new project wins from existing customers are incredibly valuable for several reasons.
“Early phase projects represent opportunity for manufacturing work up to and including commercial production, onboarding follow-on molecules from existing customers, maybe later phased, leading to validation in commercial stage with more certainty and providing assurance of need for long-term manufacturing.”
The quarter also saw Avid complete a client’s process validation campaign for a scaled up manufacturing process in anticipation of future commercial manufacturing, representing the prospect of future commercial business.
“Once the process validation is completed, the associated specifications of that process are incorporated into global regulatory filings, if approved. The customers then required to manufacture in a specified facility using that specified process,” said Kinjerski.
“Therefore, for those products approved using processes validated at Avid, it’s anticipated that the commercial manufacturing will be conducted at Avid. For this reason, we see each process validation completed today as a great opportunity to build commercial business in the future.”

I can understand the impatience. And in my opinion what went wrong was their “current” customers were projecting “expansion supportive” increased numbers prior to the investment community rug being pulled out from the entire industry. By that point the expansion was well underway. I doubt highly that there were new customers signing promissory notes to contract with Avid upon completion of expansion. There are too many complex variables with any expansion, especially in this industry, for a potential customer to commit prior to expansion completion.

So now the investment atmosphere is becoming positive again and yes there should be no excuses for growth to be constrained. But in my opinion it’s gonna take some time. I still believe this to be a stellar investment opportunity. I anticipate the originally projected business, that led to the expansion decision, to become reality over the next year or two. And yes they need to perform! No excuses.

An important note. The Biosecure act which has already passed the House and is said to likely pass the senate later this year should deliver more opportunity to Avid. Basically the act would prohibit executive agencies from contracting with any entity where the biotechnology equipment or services of a “biotechnology company of concern” would be used in the performance of that contract.

Generally speaking, a “biotechnology company of concern” is a biotechnology company that is headquartered in or subject to the jurisdiction of a foreign adversary’s government and poses a threat to national security. China for example.

Nick has stated that they already closed 1 account for a company that was being proactive and ensuring that they contracted with a manufacturer that was not considered a problem under this newly proposed bill. Assuming this bill passes the senate it should be advantageous for Avid with their capacity capabilities. Companies will be moving operations back to the states. Patience…

Obviously you’re entitled to your opinion. I have never indicated that I would accept mediocrity. I have pointed out the positives because I’m an investor. It seems not in our best interest to focus on the negatives all the time. In This most recent post I was talking less about results and more about culture. The fact is none of us know what is happening behind closed doors. I certainly have been critical about their lack of transparency. And I recall not so long ago when everyone was raving about the job Nick and crew were doing. They hit a rough patch and the support did a 180. I certainly don’t like what happened with the note debacle. That borders on unbelievable. But I am willing to give them time. No company succeeds unscathed. And I hope the company culture is one where results and solutions are expected and excuses are not allowed. I hope that people are held accountable. And I am not naive enough to say that I know what is happening behind closed doors. I give Nick the benefit of the doubt and I will pull my investment long before I pull my support. So if that is inconsistent then I’m okay with that.

I tend to agree with Djohn. Business is business. I don’t care if you’re selling toilet paper or a highly complex process. The fundamentals don’t change. Generally Excuses are not accepted as reality. You have to have the attitude of finding a way to overcome. Fundamentally you have to create an environment of being able to circumvent any obstacle. The entire culture must be solution based. The vision must highly challenging and it must permeate the entire culture. Now I’m not so certain that isn’t the environment that Nick is creating. I don’t know. You have to read between the lines. You cannot accept mediocrity. The competition will eat your lunch if you do. Results will follow the culture created. To date we have seen mixed results. That can change. I believe Nick is the right leader. Mistakes will be made but so will progress. The CEO dictates the attitude that is allowed. He dictates whether excuses and mediocrity is accepted. Accountability is important. Time will tell.

IMO the most influential piece of information that came out of this call was the fact that another big pharmaceutical company has signed on. These big pharmaceutical companies do detailed due diligence and make decisions based on capability, regulatory track record, future direction and long term viability. It is a huge vote of confidence to have another large pharma contract with Avid and the investing community knows it. It is a very sticky business and no company, especially a large highly successful company, wants to sign on with a cdmo that has any chance of potential failure short or long term. It is very difficult for drug companies
to have to change course and start all over with another CDMO. It’s a very strong vote of confidence for the future of Avid and the investing community sees it. They still have a long way to go but it is a viable start.

It was mentioned at the year end that they secured a contract with a major pharmaceutical company. The extent of the contract was not mentioned.

Don't forget IMHO. Could definitely happen. But they could also just as easily move the ball forward. Nobody knows. Time will tell.