I agree with the short interest.  Even if you could find the names -- the entity could be shorting under 5 different aliases.  

Concerning private placement of a note in most cases you cannot easily find the name of the individual who participated in a private placement with a company you are a shareholder with because private placements are confidential transactions with limited public disclosure requirements, unless you contact the company directly and inquire about the details of the placement.

Should be able to get names of stockholders including note holder.  But the by-laws have restrictions.  See By-laws below

Concerning who is shorting our stock not sure that can be done outside of getting current short interest

List of Stockholders Entitled to Vote. The Corporation shall prepare no later than the tenth day before each meeting of stockholders, a complete list of the stockholders entitled to vote at the meeting (provided, however, if the record date for determining the stockholders entitled to vote is less than ten (10) days before the date of the meeting, the list shall reflect the stockholders entitled to vote as of the tenth day before the meeting date), arranged in alphabetical order, and showing the address of each stockholder and the number of shares registered in the name of each stockholder. Such list shall be open to the examination of any stockholder, for any purpose germane to the meeting for a period of ten (10) days ending on the day before the meeting date (i) on a reasonably accessible electronic network, provided that the information required to gain access to such list is provided with the notice of meeting or (ii) during ordinary business hours at the principal place of business of the Corporation.

Section 9.               Stock Ledger. The stock ledger of the Corporation shall be the only evidence as to who are the stockholders entitled to examine the stock ledger, the list required by Section 8 of this Article IIor the books of the Corporation, or to vote in person or by proxy at any meeting of stockholders.

Personally I don’t believe anything nefarious is going on. It was a major oversight. It can be overcome. They have some work to do.

If this is important to shareholders and there is a level of uncertainty or concern…

“I would really like to know if the holders of the 7% convertible note(the financiers) are the same as those who held the original 1.25% convertible.....that would be very very telling(and may warrant an investigation?)!”

“To request a list of stockholders of record, including convertible note holders, from a company where you are a shareholder, you should contact the company's investor relations department or corporate secretary directly and formally request access to the shareholder register; be prepared to provide proof of your share ownership and explain a legitimate reason for needing the information, as companies may not readily disclose this data to all shareholders without a valid purpose.”

If you provide a valid reason and provide proof of your share ownership and they refuse to give you the requested information well then you likely have your answer. There should be no valid reason to hide this information. Just basic shareholder rights by law.

Why can Avid still outperform our expectations?

:: interest rates should continue to trend downward through 2025 making the investment environment in the entire industry more robust from the small biotech to the large pharmaceutical company. That in turn will boost the entire CDMO industry. Avid should benefit.

:: The American Made Pharmaceuticals Act would incentivize domestic production of critical medicines and help prevent drug shortages by securing the pharmaceutical supply chain here in the US. That will result in more demand for US manufacturing. Avid should benefit.

:: CDMOs will likely remain key partners for pharmaceutical companies and are expected to gain further relevance through their increasing technological expertise and know-how along the value chain. Avid should benefit.

:: Expansion is now complete and the focus can now return to growing the business. The expansion complexity, by all accounts, was managed pretty well. Not an easy process. So now all that energy can turn back to filling capacity.

:: Avid has indicated that they secured contracts with 6 or 7 companies with later stage products that can commercialize upon any or all of them being approved. Much higher volume potential for these products. Time will tell. And it does take time.

:: Avid has stated that they have secured at least 2 recent larger pharmaceutical company contracts that can potentially result in further draw down of capacity.

;; Success tends to be get more success. As momentum gains occur stability will attract further contracts. It happens in every business.

Yes there have been bumps in the road. Investment dried up at an inopportune time. Yes they have made at least one egregious mistake. But the tailwinds are once again at their backs. They can turn this around. We have every right to question. We have every right to critique. And we should also not lose sight of the potential future in our investment. They can out-perform our expectations. I, for one, still believe this ship will be turned around.

The shareholders meeting was a Non event. No questions that were taken anyway. Not certain if any were asked. They had control of that, of course.

Somebody should inform them that they can live stream the meeting and also invite shareholders to attend. They are not mutually exclusive. I don’t think they wanted questions from a live audience this year — which is fine. As long as they know the seriousness of the loan debacle and have plans to rectify as much as possible as soon as possible.

There is no question they were played big time by the note holder whomever that was. The note holder was likely laughing all the way to the bank as they were shorting the stock prior to calling them on the discrepancy. And, as we all know, the stock was shorted big-time. It seems there should have been a requirement for the note holder to call them on the oversight as soon as it happened so the stock couldn’t be played. That seems like a practical legal approach.

On to quarterly results. That is the true measure anyway. Hope to see progress. Hard to look past that serious oversight but there is no other choice. Let’s turn it around Avid.

Tracy is the president and founder of Atrium Transformations. She left to start her own business. I can see that as alluring for any inspired individual. I know the allure of that calling.

I agree wholeheartedly on the convertible.

I’m not so sure that turnover at the higher levels of the organization is a tell tale sign of problems. I found this below. It’s a very competitive industry for talent.

The CDMO Industry Landscape

The resulting need for talent has created many new opportunities for people in the industry and resulted in very low unemployment in our sector. That, in turn, has resulted in an increase in staff turnover for many companies as employees have had more opportunities to move on to bigger positions.Jan 15, 2019

I found this supporting information from 2020. So yes anticipated product approvals also played an important role in their decision.

https://www.bioprocessintl.com/facilities-capacity/avid-contemplates-pulling-the-trigger-on-capacity-expansion

“The agreements include the addition of one of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies to Avid’s growing list of customers, as well as the expansion of the relationship with one of the company’s existing biotechnology customers,” Kinjerski said on the call
She added that on top of revenue generated by expanded client relationships, “new project wins from existing customers are incredibly valuable for several reasons.
“Early phase projects represent opportunity for manufacturing work up to and including commercial production, onboarding follow-on molecules from existing customers, maybe later phased, leading to validation in commercial stage with more certainty and providing assurance of need for long-term manufacturing.”
The quarter also saw Avid complete a client’s process validation campaign for a scaled up manufacturing process in anticipation of future commercial manufacturing, representing the prospect of future commercial business.
“Once the process validation is completed, the associated specifications of that process are incorporated into global regulatory filings, if approved. The customers then required to manufacture in a specified facility using that specified process,” said Kinjerski.
“Therefore, for those products approved using processes validated at Avid, it’s anticipated that the commercial manufacturing will be conducted at Avid. For this reason, we see each process validation completed today as a great opportunity to build commercial business in the future.”

I can understand the impatience. And in my opinion what went wrong was their “current” customers were projecting “expansion supportive” increased numbers prior to the investment community rug being pulled out from the entire industry. By that point the expansion was well underway. I doubt highly that there were new customers signing promissory notes to contract with Avid upon completion of expansion. There are too many complex variables with any expansion, especially in this industry, for a potential customer to commit prior to expansion completion.

So now the investment atmosphere is becoming positive again and yes there should be no excuses for growth to be constrained. But in my opinion it’s gonna take some time. I still believe this to be a stellar investment opportunity. I anticipate the originally projected business, that led to the expansion decision, to become reality over the next year or two. And yes they need to perform! No excuses.

An important note. The Biosecure act which has already passed the House and is said to likely pass the senate later this year should deliver more opportunity to Avid. Basically the act would prohibit executive agencies from contracting with any entity where the biotechnology equipment or services of a “biotechnology company of concern” would be used in the performance of that contract.

Generally speaking, a “biotechnology company of concern” is a biotechnology company that is headquartered in or subject to the jurisdiction of a foreign adversary’s government and poses a threat to national security. China for example.

Nick has stated that they already closed 1 account for a company that was being proactive and ensuring that they contracted with a manufacturer that was not considered a problem under this newly proposed bill. Assuming this bill passes the senate it should be advantageous for Avid with their capacity capabilities. Companies will be moving operations back to the states. Patience…

Obviously you’re entitled to your opinion. I have never indicated that I would accept mediocrity. I have pointed out the positives because I’m an investor. It seems not in our best interest to focus on the negatives all the time. In This most recent post I was talking less about results and more about culture. The fact is none of us know what is happening behind closed doors. I certainly have been critical about their lack of transparency. And I recall not so long ago when everyone was raving about the job Nick and crew were doing. They hit a rough patch and the support did a 180. I certainly don’t like what happened with the note debacle. That borders on unbelievable. But I am willing to give them time. No company succeeds unscathed. And I hope the company culture is one where results and solutions are expected and excuses are not allowed. I hope that people are held accountable. And I am not naive enough to say that I know what is happening behind closed doors. I give Nick the benefit of the doubt and I will pull my investment long before I pull my support. So if that is inconsistent then I’m okay with that.

I tend to agree with Djohn. Business is business. I don’t care if you’re selling toilet paper or a highly complex process. The fundamentals don’t change. Generally Excuses are not accepted as reality. You have to have the attitude of finding a way to overcome. Fundamentally you have to create an environment of being able to circumvent any obstacle. The entire culture must be solution based. The vision must highly challenging and it must permeate the entire culture. Now I’m not so certain that isn’t the environment that Nick is creating. I don’t know. You have to read between the lines. You cannot accept mediocrity. The competition will eat your lunch if you do. Results will follow the culture created. To date we have seen mixed results. That can change. I believe Nick is the right leader. Mistakes will be made but so will progress. The CEO dictates the attitude that is allowed. He dictates whether excuses and mediocrity is accepted. Accountability is important. Time will tell.

IMO the most influential piece of information that came out of this call was the fact that another big pharmaceutical company has signed on. These big pharmaceutical companies do detailed due diligence and make decisions based on capability, regulatory track record, future direction and long term viability. It is a huge vote of confidence to have another large pharma contract with Avid and the investing community knows it. It is a very sticky business and no company, especially a large highly successful company, wants to sign on with a cdmo that has any chance of potential failure short or long term. It is very difficult for drug companies
to have to change course and start all over with another CDMO. It’s a very strong vote of confidence for the future of Avid and the investing community sees it. They still have a long way to go but it is a viable start.

It was mentioned at the year end that they secured a contract with a major pharmaceutical company. The extent of the contract was not mentioned.

Don't forget IMHO. Could definitely happen. But they could also just as easily move the ball forward. Nobody knows. Time will tell.

I give you an A for consistency. -)

This stock, like many small cap stocks, reacts positively to any indication that interest rates will be going down. The positive inflation news today bodes well for CDMO and all small cap stocks. All other things equal, we should see a steady rise in share price as interest rates retreat from current highs.

"Steve King a much better CEO than Nick."

I respectively and adamantly disagree. No comment on Steve King and the former team. Nick and his team can turn this around. I am willing to give him the benefit of some time. We don't know what's going on behind closed doors. There were 6 or 7 products up for FDA approval. The market is turning around. Demand is returning quickly and optimally. They have a strong, stellar compliance record. There were no excuses given last quarterly meeting. Yes accountability is important. I only wish they would promote their new business wins more aggressively. His team was doing a phenominal job before some hiccups. It happens. I believe they have the mental tenacity to turn this around. I believe wholeheartedly that our best days are ahead! I believe Nick and his team has what it takes to bring this company to potential. AIMO

Yes absolutely if they can attract such people. More apt to attract experienced, effective sales people with strong standing in the industry. Either way they need to know what is hindering sales and eliminate it. Take all excuses away. The market downturn is no longer a valid excuse. The market is robust and capacity is badly needed.

Set their sales people up for success. Promote success. Take away all excuses. No excuses. Then it's a matter of managing the sales process -- ensuring everyone is being aggressive and closing sales. Coaching where needed and holding people accountable. You aren't doing anyone a service by keeping low performers on the payroll. Not even the person that needs to be eliminated. They learn nothing if they are allowed to under perform. It certainly would help to have experienced sales people with established track records and relationships.

They have lost some faith in the market. Makes it tougher on their sales people. This possibly contributed to the modest 30M in sales last quarter. They need to re-gain faith in the market. Announce new business as it happens. Especially big players. Announcing generically you have a new big pharma account at the end of quarters is not optimal in assisting sales at this stage. They need to promote more aggressively and, of course, honestly to put past challenges behind them. Get faith back in the market. Help your sales people gain momentum. Stop the silent treatment. Makes no business sense at this stage.

Yes, I wish they would promote their true successes as they happen. And I'm talking about new business gained not manufacturing awards that are almost meaningless considering their current situation. Especially at this time when their very competence is in question because of their recent negligence with the note. And make no mistake. It was negligence. You can't paint it any other way. They are vulnerable. They need to promote their wins as they happen. Be responsible. That is their duty to their shareholders.

In fairness they were doing a great job prior to money drying up for early stage products. They were on top of the market and everyone seemed to be appreciative of the job they were doing. It's early after expansion. Give it a chance. I know--why didn't they have the business earmarked? I just don't know how many companies would commit to manufacturing deals after expansion with all the complexity that expansions bring. It's putting a lot of faith in so many unknowns. All deadlines hit. New employees brought up to speed. New equipment running without a hitch. New systems in place -- all increasing complexity -- significant complexity by the very nature of expansion. But some have said that Nick indicated that he had the business pre-lined up. I would like to see where that was said. Because if he did say that he has some explaining to do. Personally I don't recall that ever being said. But I would love to be proven wrong. Because accountability for such statements needs to be demanded.

Bottom line few companies go unscathed on the path to success. I am willing to give this group the benefit of the doubt. It's early. Keep the faith. I believe they will turn this around.

Thanks

It is my understanding they have 60 days to report 10K from the end of the fiscal year which was April 30th.

And it's On this coming Friday June 28th, 2024, that the annual reconstitution of the Russell indexes takes place.

Am I wrong?

Bavi’s success doesn’t surprise me one bit. Problem is OncXerna is in no position to pay phase 3 royalties. Thus the slow walk of Bavi in all these phase 2 trials. Eliminate phase 3 royalties and allow Bavi to proceed to potential approval without the added financial burden for a yet unproven entity. Take royalties on approval only. Win win for everyone. AIMO

Informative, unbiased article. Very good read. Sadly, seems like more information than we will ever glean from the company under current legal guidance. Certainly doesn’t shine a positive light on the players involved in the note fiasco including internal legal. Just inexcusable and there should be “accountability”. Even so paints a positive picture for Avid’s future.

I just wish Nick would stand up, communicate, take the heat and move forward even though the note fiasco was not his direct responsibility. That’s leadership. I’m ready for them to move past this. AIMO

E means temporarily delinquent in regulatory filings for the Nasdaq. We knew that. They will take care of that — hopefully sooner than later. I’m sure they are triple checking numbers prior to filing. Probably wise to do so.

Personally although the screw up with the note is literally unbelievable on the surface — it is early after expansion completion with significant market challenges to judge them too critically. In my opinion selling at one of their weakest points would not benefit us. I am certainly willing to give them time to right the ship and get us in a much stronger negotiation position. To our knowledge they do have 1 product of 8 that has already been approved. That leaves 7 in the wings. Get a couple more of those products to be approved and we will once again have the upper hand. I’m hoping to see another quarterly call and I really would applaud more transparency concerning these late stage products. AIMO

The question is, will they even have a call this quarter. They already met their legal obligation filing the 8k. My bet is no call this quarter. Will we see another quarter under the current BOD and management is the big question? I hope they do have a call. I hope we see another quarter. Selling from a position of weakness when there is significant untapped potential is more than unwise.

Personally I don’t want to see them selling from weakness. Especially since they have 8 late stage products awaiting potential FDA approval. Nick indicated with the right combination of approvals they could fill capacity. They already have 1 approval. I’m hoping to hear a positive tone in this quarterly call with a proactive approach — forward planning for the future.

The conspiracy was likely the fact that the company and OncXerna knew that OncXerna would never be able to pay royalties. They would not have the resources. So the contract was just for appearance. OncXerna was never going to take Bavi to phase 3, assuming it proved out, until after Avid was sold. And both companies knew it.

Interesting. Where did you hear the OncXerna ran out of money? Not sure why they have a site under maintenance if they are out of business? Unless they are in the process of soliciting for funds and plan on continuing once they get funded.

I know we have been purposely kept in the dark concerning any progress Bavi is making in clinical trials. Many don’t even want to discuss it which has likely been the company’s objective all along. They want us to forget about Bavi. So much so that OncXerna’s website has been down since last Nov. for “maintenance”. And of course the phone number listed for OncXerna no longer works. Now I know something about site maintenance. It doesn’t last 4 months and if for some odd reason it does — you never take down the original site while such maintenance is occurring. They want nothing out there. That is obvious to me. I’ve talked to Rolf Brekken about Bavi and he says that he also is wondering why it’s taking so long to progress Bavi through trials and come to a decision. But he is in the dark also. So he couldn’t offer any further color on the subject. I’m trying to get a hold of the current lead investigator as we speak.

OncXerna going underground with no published website and a non-working phone number occurred coincidentally after I asked the SEC to make public the specific timeline for Bavi royalties which amounts to 96 million accumulative prior to approval as it completes certain phases of specific trials. It is these phases of current trials which is the information that has not been made public.

And if Bavi is approved Licensee shall pay to licensor royalty fees as follows:

A: an amount equal to 9% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) of up to $100,000,000 of each product;

B: An amount equal to 11% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) from $100,000,001 to $200,000,000 of each product;

C: An amount equal to 13% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) from $200,000,001 to $500,000,000 of each product;

D: An amount equal to 14% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) from $500,000,001 to $1,000,000,000 for each product;

E: An amount equal to 16% of aggregate net sales (in all countries and territories) equal to or greater than $1,000,000,001 for each product.

The latest phase 2 results for Bavi in conjunction with Pembrolizumab “Keytruda” can be found here.

https://www.onclive.com/view/bavituximab-plus-pembrolizumab-elicits-responses-in-untreated-advanced-hcc

I am not saying Bavi will be approved or even be eligible for royalty payments. That has yet to be announced. I am just wondering why Avid’s BOD and management purposely seem to keep us in the dark on this subject. Especially now since Royalty money would be highly valued during this crisis. And of course if there is a low ball bid for the company I’m sure Bavi potential will not even be mentioned.

Unfortunately the person responsible at the SEC refused to make trial specifics public. The reason being it would compromise any future contracts with other companies that Avid may be involved in. I certainly could not understand and argued against this since Avid is NOT in the drug creation business. But she would not budge. My argument was it has nothing to do with their competitiveness and everything to do with the potential value that Bavi may hold to the company and its shareholders — which at the time of any potential low ball sale — will likely not even be mentioned. Not to say anything for any royalties Avid may accrue by meeting certain milestones. That is money that would certainly come in handy at this time.

I felt it important that everyone know this at this delicate time in Avid’s history. Again I am not presuming value of any kind. I’m just wondering why the company is going to such lengths to keep things quiet about any progress Bavi is making or any value Bavi may hold at this current time. And in my opinion I’m wondering why it’s taking so long for OncXerna to come to a decision on Bavi and progress it to phase 3 trials — or cut it altogether.

This deal, albeit not inked, likely came together verbally somewhere early Nov. when Catalent’s price was somewhere around $35. That’s when the price began its rise which was a bit confusing at the time. Catalent had significant issues and the entire biotech sector was underwater because financing had all but dried up. That’s how these deals are done. The buyers shareholders would never have accepted a deal at an 80% premium.

So really it’s a dam good deal for shareholders especially after all the issues Catalent had last year. $63.50 looks great to the buyer’s shareholders as well. And Catalent shareholders certainly can’t complain looking at where they were last Nov.

Yes this relationship will likely result in a marginal increase to the bottom line. But it’s not this one relationship that I applaud most. I generally applaud the concept of creating strategic relationships as a growth strategy that can seriously boost sales efforts when expanded as a mainstream approach. I hope to see more of this. I.E. Realtionships with biotech incubators, biotech angel investing groups, other complimentary grant groups, national cancer institute etc. I’m sure they know much better than I what relationships would reap the most benefit. Any relationship that by its very nature creates that win win relationship between Avid and the partnering entity. It’s much better than exclusively using the one off approach which, of course, is also a necessity.

As a reminder aldo last quarter Avid Bioservices Partners With California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM) to Provide CDMO Services for Cell and Gene Therapy (CGT) Programs. CIRM has 5.5 billion in funding from California. Under terms of the partnership, Avid has joined the CIRM Industry Resource Partner Program to provide development and CGMP manufacturing services to CIRM-funded programs. The company will assist CIRM’s partners in accelerating gene therapy development and manufacturing through its suite of CDMO services, which span process and analytical development, cell banking, virus banking, drug substance manufacturing, and fill-finish activities. CIRM-funded programs will be offered access to Avid’s services in order to reduce the timelines required to advance through clinical development. All partnership activities will be performed in Avid’s recently launched, world-class CGT CGMP manufacturing facility in Orange County, California.

This is all good stuff.

When they reported last quarter on Dec. 7th Nick said that he thought the last 2 quarters of 2024 would be similar in gross sales to the best 2 quarters in the company history — the last 2 quarters of 2023. The third quarter 2023 gross sales were 38 million. The fourth quarter gross sales were 39.8 million. He was pretty well into our next reporting quarter when he said that. I have to believe visibility was pretty good. He also stated they had 8 products up for PPQ which then will be submitted to the FDA for BLA. Of course each has a different profile — timeline — potential market size etc. but several of those approvals could really set them up nicely in the relative short term for the long term. As everyone knows they already have one approval. In pretty decent shape really. It’s the time that’s most frustrating.

Well put. Agreed wholeheartedly!

Yes there is some institutional selling. Probably should be expected. Bottom line they need a couple more drugs to be approved and come to market. That will change things significantly. They already have one. It would be interesting to know who these companies are and what the drugs are that they are seeking approval for. Not the sure thing it once seemed like but certainly not too bad either. With hard work, faith and a little luck they will get this back on track. Not a time to lose faith. They will win this game. AIMO

I believe an amended 13g is necessary whenever there is a change in ownership over 5%.

Any person who has filed a Schedule 13G must file an annual amendment to the Schedule within 45 days after the end of the calendar year, to report any changes in the information presented. (No Amendment is required if there have been no changes). This obligation is not limited to institutional investors.

https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=90423&ref=318012271&type=HTML&symbol=CDMO&cdn=ac5d2b7d84a0159f293913a248e6da06&companyName=Avid+Bioservices+Inc.&formType=SC+13G%2FA&formDescription=%5BAmend%5D+Statement+of+acquisition+of+beneficial+ownership+by+individuals&dateFiled=2024-01-26

https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=90423&ref=318005391&type=HTML&symbol=CDMO&cdn=bdbb99239538fe0842be089f5f3a3d67&companyName=Avid+Bioservices+Inc.&formType=SC+13G%2FA&formDescription=%5BAmend%5D+Statement+of+acquisition+of+beneficial+ownership+by+individuals&dateFiled=2024-01-25