is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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So Netman, where do we stand in terms of reaching the goals of:
- getting a listing
- getting the offering done
I take it that the shares cannot go on the AMEX right now because they are not over $3.00. So we stay on the OTCBB?
When will the offering happen for sure?
What is the company's plan to get us over $3.00?
I don't think it would matter that much of we were not on AMEX right away. Just not sure what "conditional acceptance" means.
Let's get on to talking about relevant factual stuff, not each other.
I wanted to respond to your post with some straight facts, track. I take no offense at your statement, have no quarrel with you, and no need to prove myself to you. However, these are the straight facts:
I am not sure what you mean by "BB" stocks. Bulletin Board? I will have you know that I use a classic Value Investing Methodology I developed my self, mainly in high technology. I have gotten a 30% return on invested capital in 2007 thus far. I am doing well this year, as my picks and timing are superior to those of last year. uWink fits in the mix as a bit of a different beast, as it does not meet the criteria I usually set for a stock. But, it was also my biggest money-maker of my entire trading career, and is roughly 25% of my 2007 profit to date. As for education, that is OK. I have a Finance MBA, which has helped me alot once applied properly.
There are no ulterior motives with me. I am here for factual, good discussion. In the last few weeks it has been more interesting. I like to be challenged.
I have no interest in mutual funds and intend to maintain my own portfolio over time. I am doing fine.
I am quite a risk-taker compared to most investors. Lately I have been negative on uWink. Well, the facts speak for themselves with this stock. I don't need to defend a negative opinion on a stock that has gone down.
Your post was quite informative on how a Warrant is accounted for and made for interesting reading. I was looking for more thoughts on how that impacted the stock price. It was hard to decipher what you were saying. The fact that is shows up on the Balance Sheet as an Authorized Share is nice to know as much as the Outstanding shares showing up on the Balance Statement and diluting the stock. And when a Warrant is exercised it has the same dilution affect as any other type of offering. I have observed that many times. But that is not what the Buyers are thinking about when they buy this package. They are pricing the components and looking at the Value. They are also Risk-averse and demand a premium. So I was wondering what was the direct effect of the warrant on the stock price that could be commended with the offering.
Anyway, if you don't want to comment on the price of the offering and how the warrants affect that, that is OK. I posted my opinion.
I will continue to post on this forum.
That may be true. I think I was referring to someone calling and asking a serious question about the stock price or something. They would never talk about that.
In order for this offering to happen, doesn't there have to be:
- the Registration Statement that has been filed with the SEC must become effective.
"The securities may not be sold nor may offers to buy be accepted prior to the time the registration statement becomes effective. The common stock and warrants may be offered only by means of a prospectus." - from the original press release from uWink.
Has the registration statement become effective?
- Where is the prospectus?
The point of what I was saying is that the offering would be able to be priced close to market, hence not impacting the market very much. I think that if these shares came out .10 or .20 less, they would still impact the market. If lots of people sold, sure it would impact the price, especially the stock being thinly traded as it is. Or, the excitement of the deal would overwhelm that.. who knows..?
What I can't understand is how they would even set the price in this environment... the way the price is so volatile.
hmmm... I am thinking backwards? curious what is "forwards".. no offense taken.... just wondering what that means.
thanks "not.."... what is optinality?
Good info. So translate that to how that affects the price of the offering.
?
You are correct. Just don't see what that means in terms of how it affects the prices the shares are offered at. I see that as a Supply and Demand thing. This company is losing .20/share last time I looked. Dilution is kind of irrelevant at this point, because there are no earnings to dilute.
I would think it would make SOME sense, but not maybe perfect sense. I don't try to pretend to know more than I do.
I am making a general statement about the nature of this deal which should have perhaps been obvious at the outset. I am equating the Warrant to Call Option because that is effectively what it is. I know it can be priced.. but that is difficult.
I think what I am saying makes perfect sense, that in order to induce people to buy in, the Warrants are a sweetener or an inducement. That inducement can be priced like an option.
I am guessing at .30-.50 for the warrants.. but that the buyers would still want a good price.
The price being discussed is 2.00. That seems pretty low to me, but not unbelievable. What is actually is remains to be seen.
I can add nothing more in terms of intelligent guesses. Can you?
yes, but do you agree that in combination with a share, allows the share to be sold at close to market without impacting the current market price... except for obvious dilution implications.
I am talking about options pricing. I think they would use the Black-Scholes pricing formula. Options have a price based on the probability of the stock reaching the exercise price in the future. If the warrants were being traded on an open market, they would be priced at something like that. I see no difference between a Warrant and an option other than a Warrant is something that is issued along with an offering of shares. It amounts to the same thing.
There is a typo in my post. I said the total would be 4.00. It in fact would be 3.00. That was a typo.
The problem is price stability. Today does not convey that to a potential investor. PKG's comments about the firm suppporting the stock price are true as well.
uWink management have nothing to do with this Board and don't care what people here say. If someone started a rumour here.. well.. I would not do it, but it is hard to say ti is actionable. It is just an internet board. The offering can only be announced publicly when done. This is speculation. You will not get a response.
I have formed a new opinion on the offering price after thinking about the combined package of warrants plus stock.
Previously I stated that the offering price would be lower than market. I think my reasoning was sound (institutional investors need an incentive), However, I did not realize that the Warrants are in fact that incentive. They are like Options, meant to be exercised at some future date for profit. They can be priced at perhaps .30 or .50. That means if the Offering price is 2.60, the total package is around 4.00. That gives the buyer incentive to buy without depressing the stock price.
Therefore, I withdraw my previous statements that the Offering price will be at a substantial discount to the market price. It will however, be below it, and hence it is still better to wait until the Offering sorts itself out. I would have guessed .10 or .20.
I was going to write this after todays events. Quite frankly I am amazed. I would not have taken this board literally and sold my shares based on the rumour. That guy that got named, well, I feel for him. He may be fired over it. But, there is likely no legal recourse, since this board does not officially represent uWink. Best to hold tight.
PKG's price is believable, but they would have kept a tight lid on that. I simply cannot believe all of these rumours. what is the chance that they are true? Would people in the investments business risk their careers doing this? I have seen insider trading in charts after the fact.. never actually witnessed it!
One thing I did say before, however, is that information concerning the offering must be kept secret. Either the secret is out, or we have been mislead. I will wait to find out. I have nothing on the line... But what happened today (market price fall + rumour) simply amazes me.
I think the inclusion of a warrant is intended as a "sweetener". The buyer would keep it for future use. It enable him to purchase shares at a set price. If the stock goes up, the buyer can exercise them and make more money. But the stock has to go up first.
well, I could be wrong. I was thinking of something else just now.
Basically, if I could buy a share for less than market I would immediately sell it and take a profit. That will drive down the price.
However I was just thinking that there would likely be a clause whereby the buyers could not sell for a certain time period (say a year) in order to prevent that. So maybe I am wrong. Time Value of Money would still kick in... 5% or so a year?
however, I must say that in watching stocks in general for most of 4 years now, that is the pattern I have seen. Got to go with what you observe.
Example: MSF Medcomsoft (TSX). Warrants were exercised in mid-August at .65. Stock plummeted from .70 to .50 for no reason. Excellent growth and numbers. Almost profitable.
that could mean... the price is lower than current market (buying opportunity).. but then why would existing shareholders like it? price will fall to that level.
or you could mean price is higher than current market.. (illogical)....
good comment nosleep. i agre hindsight is always 20/20.
I was in at .50 (on the way down), then at .33. Then .57 (on the way up) then out at 1.50. The fact that it shooted unexpectedly up to 2.50 did not cause me to buy back in in frustration...
good work, happy profit-taking.
I don't think there is a set answer to that. You may be right. Fact is, you never know fully 100% what will happen. I can only observe. There was a time when I was nieve and bought with any news I thought was "good", including financings, changes to management etc. I have learned that this disruption is usually bad for the stock price. The key is patience....
But anyway, nothing personal. if you want to buy and hold, fine. I have learned that there are usually better stocks to put your money into. You just have to look for them, that is hard work.
The kind of stocks I find have better numbers that this.. and a better chart, those are the hard facts. I am way up on the stocks I have picked since I sold uWink, with that money.
you are playing with words. Your statement is offensive. No opinion can be absolutely proven. If any of us knew what would happen we would all be millionaires.
Netman responded with facts. Everybody else is being factual...
By the way... I did not mention this before... but thinly traded is not good either.. lots of odd lots. Another dangerous signal for this offering.
And Raw, what are you talking about "other financings"? I follow this stock fairly closely. There are no other financings to my knowledge in the last year. The only other financing was to close friends and family members. That is another thing that is worrisome, because they all got in at .30 with the old shares. I think there is a clause in there about them not being able to sell their shares for a year or so.. and they got theirs last fall. But them selling their shares for profit is yet another problem.
Once again, I don't know that FOR ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN....
go catch a bus Raw.
You are contradicting yourself and basically picking a fight over wording. Why don't you give it a rest. What does "Moderator" mean here anyway? I must find out.
I read your little bio. You are a "swing trader". So you purportedly do exactly the same thing I do. Another word for position trading. What are you attacking me for then? What you are talking about in terms of a strategy in your first little barb is probably a day trading strategy (no positions held overnight). "Short term" is a relative statement. In most people's minds it means position trading.
My point was that day trading is hard for the average person and very difficult to do. There are numerous strategies... if a stock went up on news would it go up more the next day? maybe, maybe not. It is dangerous as hell.
Anyway, why don't you do your thing, I do mine, and stop picking a fight. If you are somehow representing uWink you are a bad example.
Raw:
You are very quick to insult people with your words. No one's opinion is a "bucket of horseshit". But I am not going to take offense at it.
There are lots of short-term strategies that are very difficult for the small investor to play. And dangerous. The minute you think you know what you are doing, you get nailed. I don't try to do short-term stuff anymore. I am simply talking about he best time to get in to the new situation.
It is tough to predict what this stock will do, I can only observe the market and be cautious.
I would think that if the scenario plays out along the lines we are talking about, buying in when the offering comes out is a good play. The offering is "best-efforts", which is a negative signal. but then again, it has a successful track record in terms of restaurant success, there are openings imminent... and it will coincide with the AMEX listing, which are all positives. This financing also gives the company stability and working capital. The offering could be a struggle, or it could be snapped up. I think that an attractive price and a strong marketing campaign are parts of the strategy. It is hard to predict the outcome.
i was not aware of that... that would solve the problem of the price going below that 3.00 limit.
And you are right.. being on the AMEX will help.
But, the offering will decrease the price. Think of it as a simple supply-and-demand situation. There are only so many buys, and more stock out there wanting to be sold. The price must go down.
I would think that the Prospectus must be available to anybody for a period of time (one month?) for the offering to be fairly distributed o the market. The Prospectus must include the price. So, once the price stabilizes they will go ahead. I would think the price would immediately fall to that level.
I had another penny stock make an offering some years back. It was at .15 and the offering was at .10. It was a Warrant to existing shareholders. By the time I got into a position to buy the price had fallen below .10. They raised more money than I thought they had, given the pricing situation.
The time to buy would be immediately after the Prospectus comes out... or maybe after all shares have been sold on a "Best Efforts" basis. That is when the price will be at a minimum.
Or, I could be totally full of it.
here is another man thinking...
I would say the market price would drop immediately.. because some of those buyers will want to take profits immediately by selling at Market... therefore market will fall to the Offering price. I have seen that in other stocks where i was involved and they did an offering....
here is a thoughtful comment.
At the track agrees that the price has to be lower (but the previous close?).. I would say lower than that.
He agrees that the Buyers may be waiting for the price to stabilize...
what is the origin of this "next week" comment? Did someone make some vague statement about "maybe next week" at some point?
From looking at the investor note on the blog on this, it is not a bought deal. But, the Prospectus must be completed, the price firm, and it must be available to all investors at the same time.. fairly. the price would have to be below current market to be attractive, so you would think they would wait until the price stabilizes.
I think that the only thing we can assume is that Merriman can't say anything until they actually do it. To do otherwise would be to leak information prematurely.
What kind of offering is this? It is not a Private Placement? I would think that would be the most logical in this case. Get a group of investors that are willing to pony up. Then they could announce it anytime.
Public offing, they have to be careful. Make an effort to be fair. But I don't really know much about it.
Actually, Netman I am in a situation where I can't really afford to have losses or keep anything that does not turn a quick profit. It is necessity. So I sell things "with extreme prejudice" if I think there is a problem. Over the last year I have been very successful doing that. Funny how life works, what you do for necessaity turns out to be a good strategy... Being under extreme pressure forces you to be ruthless.
But I can't say as I would have done that if I had been in better circumstances. It goes against human nature. I have read books on how to trade without letting emotion get in the way. It is a hard thing to do and I can't say as I have always been successful.
So, good comment.
good comment, netman.
I posted some time ago on this forum that I thought uWink was a bad investment in the short term. That was around the beginning of August I think, just after the R/S. I looked at it and said... they are currently losing .20/share. Those are the hard facts. While there is great future promise, my experience has shown that the market tends to wait until the very last minute to recognize it. Even at that... this thing is a bit risky. From reading this and limited research, they need this money from this offering to open the new company=-owned restaurants. So if it does not happen, they are screwed. Even so, they still have along way to go to become profitable. And stocks tend to go down until the company is profitable. It is no sure thing these restaurants will open. likely, but all they have is Letters of Intent. If financing falls through... that is it.
And also, I read what there is about this offering through Merriman. It is on a "best efforts" basis. That is horrible. That means when they set the price, they will sell what they can. It is not guaranteed,
In order to make it profitable, they are going to have to offer the shares at a premium to the market. The buys will then sell some for a profit immediately. Thus the offering price will form an immediate "floor" for the stock, and the price will fall to that level. Right now I would guess in the low 3.00 range, like 3.20 or 3.30.
Another thing that is kind of scary is that one of the conditions for listing on AMEX is a price of at least 3.00. They have fallen alot since the R/S. I would say right now that the price of the stock is a threat, and this offering will make that worse. If I were the underwriter, I would not even know what price to set.
I got out at 4.70. The stock did not meet my criteria. I was right then, I think I am right now... best to wait until after this financing is done before you buy.... thankfully, I have already done well with this stock.
In Canada the low point of the season for stocks is October..t hat is the mutual fund year-end (tax-loss selling). how does it work in the US, what is the seasonal low? I am guessing mid-December for this one.....
yes you are correct... lol.;.
last time when they openbed the original restaurant it wasinteresting..... they hired a PR agency... a chef even... nothing happened. The stock was at .30. Then they hired waitstaff. the runners. Then it shot up to .70 befor esettling back down at .57. We know the rest...
so make sur eyou are in before they fire the waitstafdf.. then people know they are relaly serious.
You just insulted me, Netman, for no reason, with no intelligent argument, and I am not impressed. What is our function here anyway? Do you try to find ways to insult people that don't happen to think uWink is the greatest stock in the world?
By the way, I read of Nolan's plans on MSN News in the summer of 2005, and bought my first shares at 0.50. The shares continued to go down, until JUST BEFORE the restaurant opened. They were trading at .20-.30 during the summer of 2006. I bought more. They did not start to go up until he hired staff, when they shot up to .57, (going to .70 first) in September. That is when I bought the rest of my shares. This was the greatest money-making opportunity I have ever seen. All I knew was that it was a great idea, and that restaurants are popular when they open, simply because they are new. I did state that the Qualitative is the most important factor, in case you remember. Sometimes that is all there is, and I acted on it. If you are going to try to have "intelligent discussion" as you call it, at least get your facts straight.
As for the rest of what you are saying, what the hell is wrong with reading posts on a forum without contributing? Yes I was not a member until yesterday. So what? Why would you even post something like that? what do you read the National Enquirer or something?
Most of what you are saying is an insult to the intelligence of anyone who takes the time to read it. Assuming you are here to pump uWink stock (maybe even paid for it, I don't know) why don't you try to respond to my argument intelligently instead of trying to bait me into some kind of stupid on-line war of words?Is that all you got? I am not very impressed...
I know... but we are all here to make money. Who cares whether it is a startup or not? Actually, the reason why the P/E is so far down the list is for exactly that reason. Most of the companies I can afford do not have P/E ratios, because they are not profitable yet. That is why earnings growth is so useful. I am not into blue-chip investing.
But, having said that, if you don't trade with discipline in the penny-stock realm you will lose your shirt. I can say that from personal experience. So, having a framework within which to work is critically important at the low end, wouldn't you say? Especially with limited resources. It is as important to call when something is going to go down (does not meet your criteria) as when it is a so-called "good pick".
Hopefully you are responding to me. I have been watching this forum for awhile. It is interesting to read these things. I find amazing the language used here, if these people were in the same room... OMG. At the other end of the spectrum.. the gloating...
Anyway... I am awaiting an intelligent reply.
Hello. I am new to this board and am a successful investor in uWink. i started investing several years ago and had losses for the first several years, until I learned some hard lessons. uWink was a different story. All i had to do was read a news article about a restaurant opening and apply some common sense. I am thankful for the opportunity because the money I made with uWink allowed me to pursue other things and erase losses. After reinvesting the money i made in uWink, I made about the same amount of money investing in things that went up on fundamentals.
I have learned to establish firm criteria and stick with it. Right now, i am worried about uWink in the short term and am interesting in soliciting any and all opinions on the matter.
Here is my methodology for finding stocks:
- rank based on earnings growth (over 3 years)
- check out the chart (must represent a buying opportunity based on technical analysis)
- look at the business concept (qualitiative analysis)
- look at the P/E ratio (abotu the only ratio that has meaning for me)
- watch out for seasonal trends
- there is one indicator I find works
Interestingly enough, the qualitative is overpowering. uWink met only one of those criteria (business concept) when I bought it, and it has been my biggest money-maker. I have also found, they almost all have to be there in order for the stock to work out. I would say that stocks that meet all criteria are hard to find, and my success ratio has been about 70%. I have a Finance MBA.
At one time I had 8000 shares of UWNK and rode it from around .30 to 1.50. I then bought another 4500, which i rode from 1.25 to 1.44.
Here is my problem; at this point in time, UWKI sucks as an investment in the short term. Frankly, I just cannot see any stock at 5:00 as being worthwhile when it is losing .20/share. That is right, it is .20/share. I looked at the last financials, they were .05/share. Well the R/S only aggravates what is a losing proposition on a per share basis. This company is having to raise money to expand, and things may very well work out, but that is very risky. I still think it is a great concept, but... the problem from an investment point-of-view is that, in the absence of other forces, stocks tend to fall. This stock has primarily been pumped up on hype, concept, and hope for the future. The bottom line is that nothing will happen until early next year (which in Nolan's time chart means mid-year). That is a ways off. I think this would be a good year-end play, but right now, it has time and room to fall. I usually never invest in anything that is not close to breaking even. There is no point. It will fall, unless there are extraordinary circumstances.
However, I must say that concepts like this are what make people rich. I am thankful for what has happened with uWKI and have no regrets, but I am waking up today thinking I am nuts for staying in.
Any and all opinions welcome.