Hello. I am new to this board and am a successful investor in uWink. i started investing several years ago and had losses for the first several years, until I learned some hard lessons. uWink was a different story. All i had to do was read a news article about a restaurant opening and apply some common sense. I am thankful for the opportunity because the money I made with uWink allowed me to pursue other things and erase losses. After reinvesting the money i made in uWink, I made about the same amount of money investing in things that went up on fundamentals.
I have learned to establish firm criteria and stick with it. Right now, i am worried about uWink in the short term and am interesting in soliciting any and all opinions on the matter.
Here is my methodology for finding stocks:
- rank based on earnings growth (over 3 years)
- check out the chart (must represent a buying opportunity based on technical analysis)
- look at the business concept (qualitiative analysis)
- look at the P/E ratio (abotu the only ratio that has meaning for me)
- watch out for seasonal trends
- there is one indicator I find works
Interestingly enough, the qualitative is overpowering. uWink met only one of those criteria (business concept) when I bought it, and it has been my biggest money-maker. I have also found, they almost all have to be there in order for the stock to work out. I would say that stocks that meet all criteria are hard to find, and my success ratio has been about 70%. I have a Finance MBA.
At one time I had 8000 shares of UWNK and rode it from around .30 to 1.50. I then bought another 4500, which i rode from 1.25 to 1.44.
Here is my problem; at this point in time, UWKI sucks as an investment in the short term. Frankly, I just cannot see any stock at 5:00 as being worthwhile when it is losing .20/share. That is right, it is .20/share. I looked at the last financials, they were .05/share. Well the R/S only aggravates what is a losing proposition on a per share basis. This company is having to raise money to expand, and things may very well work out, but that is very risky. I still think it is a great concept, but... the problem from an investment point-of-view is that, in the absence of other forces, stocks tend to fall. This stock has primarily been pumped up on hype, concept, and hope for the future. The bottom line is that nothing will happen until early next year (which in Nolan's time chart means mid-year). That is a ways off. I think this would be a good year-end play, but right now, it has time and room to fall. I usually never invest in anything that is not close to breaking even. There is no point. It will fall, unless there are extraordinary circumstances.
However, I must say that concepts like this are what make people rich. I am thankful for what has happened with uWKI and have no regrets, but I am waking up today thinking I am nuts for staying in.
Any and all opinions welcome.
