is... a buy and hold investor of dividend US and Canadian stocks
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Well, really, if they were a good company, they would not need to resort to this kind of self-promotion...
Well, you are very trusting with your money. I took a quick look at this company's financials told me that it was brutal. About 90% of the "information" received by investors is nothing but paid advertising. If you look at the fine print of the message received, the host of the show was saying exactly what the company wanted him to say. In other words, it could be total bullshit. SO you are buying the stock based on total bullshit. Why do they have to resort to spewing total bullshit? Isn't your money worth a bit more care than that?
Wow, that is amazing... it is of no concern to you that you are buying a stock based on paid promotion? incredible...
Does everybody realize that MoneyTV is being paid to do this promotional marketing for Marani?? All you have to do is ask them. This is part of a message that was received from them:
"MoneyTV with Donald Baillargeon television program, Copyright MMXIV, all rights reserved. MoneyTV does not provide an analysis of companies' financial positions and is not soliciting to purchase or sell securities of the companies, nor are we offering a recommendation of featured companies or their stocks. Information discussed herein has been provided by the companies and should be verified independently with the companies and a securities analyst. MoneyTV provides companies a 3 to 4 month corporate profile with multiple appearances for a cash fee of $11,995.00 to $17,250.00, does not accept company stock as payment for services, does not hold any positions, options or warrants in featured companies. The information herein is not an endorsement by Donald Baillargeon, the producer, publisher or parent company of MoneyTV."
You know what is really interesting? It is not in the filings. It is the link to the audio from the AGM con call and it is on the p2O web site. Not in the filings. That means that JBI is not legally accountable for it... go figure.
I have not had a chance to listen to it yet, but I will.
Whoever said that during the AGM was just giving a quick opinion or making an off-hand comment. That does not match what is in the Financial Statements. It is also not something that JBI is accountable for and there is no public record for it that I know of.
I know that. I read it. That information indicates that units 4 and 5 are only 20-30% complete at the time of that report. Thanks for looking that up. It is pointless to argue with me on this matter. I have monitored projects like this, reported to management on them, and reported progress. I know what I am talking about.
75% complete and 75% paid are more or less the same thing.... outside of a Cost Variance, which would be no more than 5 or 10%. If they say it is 75% Complete it must be 75% paid for. Judging from the material in the latest Financial Report, they are only 20-30% complete.
Is this what people are interpreting to mean they are 75% complete #4 and 5? Bullshit!!!!!! The statements blow imply that they are no more than 20-30% complete. My experience in Construction/ Engineering projects tells me that!!!
And these third worlds countries have the money to spend on machines too... what a great target market for JBI... LOL..
I will try to modify my spreadsheet to capture this.
Could you point me to where this is in a filing so I get the context?
So if JBI sold to a customer that had a waste disposal problem, I understand that the cost of feedstock would go away. However, there is more to it, there is also the actual Procurement function, which is an office function. If the customer no longer has a feedstock cost, they still have an office function, because now they have to sell the fuel output. Unless of course, they utilize it entirely (pretty hard situation to find)... I don't believe that that entire cost would go away.
Feedstock pre-processing refers to what? Sorting the feedstock to ensure that the right type is used? Or pre-heating?
The customer is still going to have this cost as well. I don't see this going away...
Any numbers you can provide would be helpful. I don't think it is as simple as below.
I will redo it and make it more clear. I will respond to Koolmoto's recent observations regarding Costs not present in a potential processor sale situation.
The concept is called Time Value of Money. A cash flow in the future is worth less now. I am discounting it backwards to present. That is what NPV calculations are based on.
The Rate of Return, Discount Rate, or Cost of Capital all refer to the same rate. It is the return that the company would get if they were to invest the money elsewhere in some other investment, and also the Cost of Capital if they borrowed money from a bank to invest in the project under review.
Let's say that an investment produces a cash flow of $100/ quarter or $400/ year.
After 1 year, given a RoR of 5%, $400 would become $420.
Reverse the argument, at that discount rate, what is a cash flow of $400 1 year from now worth? 400/(1+.05) = 380.9524 (4 decimal places should keep everyone happy). Therefore the Present Value of $400 received in 1 year at 5% is $380.95.
That is the concept behind the NPV calculations. Future cash flows are worth less and less. IRR is similar, looking at a payback period of 3 years, plus 20%. The 2-year time period is exactly for the reasons stated above.
So effectively, yes they make less and less each quarter as I have shown.
Clear?
What exactly are you doing there? Let me guess...
48 Tons/ day?
300 days/ year?
276 what?
Payback, or ROI, or NPV is always based on all cash flows (Revenues and Costs or CGS), not just Revenues...
please explain??
So now that we have the page 29 thing figured out, where do you get that Units 4&5 are 75% complete? Just wondering.. you are the investor, not me. Is it because of some statement that parts have been ordered and you are making assumptions? Just wondering....
Do longs here seriously believe that JBI could command 8 or 9 Million for Processor #3? Think about it. Last quarter they made $15k from P2O on revenues of about 300k. Utilizing that number, a potential buyer would have to run the processor for 600 quarters or 150 years in order to make his money back. That is the Payback Period, and it assumes a Cost of Capital of 0%. Just do the math on a price of $9 Million.
The only possibility is that JBI is using the current Cost of Unit2 #2 and #3 as a sale price. That is entirely unrealistic. It is like someone (and we have all met people like this) trying to sell a car after having restored it and wanting all of the money he spent back out of it. It is entirely unrealistic.
Here is the P&E line from the last financial statements:
PROPERTY, PLANT AND EQUIPMENT, NET (Note 5) 8,618,865
Sounds an awful lot like 8 or 9 Million, doesn't it? That is the only logical reason I can see. Complete naivete on the part of JBI.
Boy for someone with supposedly a long-term interest in JBI this new CFO has had alot of "interim" roles... he can't seem to hold a job!!!!
" I am committed to the Company through this exciting growth phase and the long run"
and they are only an equipment vendor anyway... 2 to 3 Million to JBI at best. Ehat are you thinking, that they will get the Sunk Cost? forget about it...
Well, I tried. What you are saying still amounts to a load of crap. I read the narrative from the Con call on Dec 10 and some of the last financial statements. Even went to page 29. Still no proof of geting anywhere near 8 or 9 Million for these machines.
There was some nice stuff about modularization, and the fact that a full set of engineering drawings exist. That is good.
But, bottom line is all one has is their own intuition and knowledge to make an investing decision. Above and beyond all of the mostly useless information that comes one's way by the media and even in financial statements. 99% of the information that the average investor receives is paid for by the company providing the information.
Common sense should tell you that no one is going to pay that kind of money (8 or 9 Million) for a machine that makes a measly 15k on 300k of revenues. That is pathetic. There is no business model or analysis that will support that. That is like a 30-year mortgage.
ANd I can find no statements about the status of machines 4 and 5. iven their financial situation, tye have no money to build them. How can they be 75% complete? If you are saying that ordering parts makes them 75% complete, you are sadly mistaken. It actually puts them further in the hole.
Why don't you show me where this comes from an put it to rest for everyone? You are only kidding yourself, truly. It will get you nowhere.
You are the one who posted thisb information in one sentence with no backup whatsoever. I know what the machine is worth, which is not much because it is barely profitable and I have posted accordingly. I am justing asking for some kind of backup for your figure.
OK. Of what?
How do you know that processors 4 and 5 are 75% complete? Where do you get a sale price for a processor of 8 or 9 Million?
Talk about fearmongering. So the stock crash was a result of legal BS is that what you are saying? If i remember correctly it corresponded with JBI being accused of fraud. It also corresponded with really bad financial reports. Of course it is going to crash!! 5 years of horible financial losses... the kiss of death!!!
But none of this represents mistakes by JB? Or JB's mistakes did not contribute significantly ot this?? It is just the opposition (totlaly undefined).
I call that denial... LOL
I am sure it is something you can pay for, a service? I don't have even Level 2. The important thing is the capital they have access to to do the evil deeds with. Looking at the volume on a penny stock like JBII, all it would take is 50k or so on a given day.
Hey, this may be a stupid question, but I note that there is a Pre-Trade on this. It seems to be a good indicator of a runup during our trading day. Is this another exchange where we can access the trading data for the day ongoing?
I think that Heddle Marine was the outfitter, ie. not the end customer, for the p2O ships. There would have to have been a buyer to put up a ship and considerable capital to make that happen. Heddle was contracted to do the conversion to a P2O ship.
Interesting point though.
Excellent day for OPTT!!! I have no idea what triggers this. I bought more than the minimum number of shares with the hope of trading on news. Problem is here... there is no news. What up??
Don't try to influence the price via your own purchasing decisions... that is foolish.
FEL 1 includes alternatives analysis. Layout/ Floor plan is discussed then. The thought of having the plant in a building simplifies things. Or so it seems. It also makes it more costly.
Construction companies know dick about soil conditions. They just build what you give them in terms of plans/ construction packages.
It is not just buying a piece of equipment. I can see from the pictures that there is lots of piping... feeder systems, electrical, lots of stuff. Unless it is documented, it is useless to anybody.
Don't oversimplify a system design that happens to contain JBI equipment.
I don't think that you are being realistic about what is involved in the engineering component. The layout floor plan is part of the FEL 1 and is part of the OOM estimate. All of that has to be further defined. Foundations or slabs require an understanding of the geology and soil conditions. That is the Civil. Mechanical and Electrical design follows. #3 was designed by JB out of his machine shop and there are likely no detailed drawings for it. Can't proceed or sell anything that way.
The 2 Million as a percentage of the total correspond exactly to the benchmarks for FEL 2 and FEL 3 phases where this is done. SAIC was just telling it like it is. If you agree with that Summary and take it as gospel (you do don't you?), then you can't selectively disagree with it.
6 mo. to 1 year including commissioning. Don't oversimplify it. There is a safety aspect s well. Can't take shortcuts.
huge debt?? honestly.. i think not.
Actually, I am surprised that more employees have not come forward and posted about JBI. You would think that with the company losing so much money year after year, it would have happened by now. Especially when Internet Marketing is such a part of their game plan.
I am not surprised by the runup simply because I have seen it so many times before with stocks on a downward slide like this. I have no idea why it might have happened. Covering short positions comes to mind, but I have no basis for saying that. I think some coordinated retail traders could move a stock like this as well by wash trading it.
I don't know that positive posting alone would be enough to move the stock price. Who is to say??
ROFL... that is so unrealistic as to be funny. If there EVER is a machine sale... we shall see.. LOLOLOL
That is a step in the right direction, but hardly makes a difference. I actually was the planner on a modular job. 16 modules, each the size of a bus. We set them, then connected them all together with piping. It was basically a piping job.
The purpose of modularization is to reduce cost, since it is easier to build off-site and transport to site, rather than stick-build on site. There was a definite savings with modularization, in the order of 10% or so.
One problem with modularization and attempts to cut cost is that if the modules are not Union-built, the union workers may refuse to accept it. I have seen cases (twice) where the Union people forced the Owner to allow them to deconstruct, and then reconstruct, the modules because of this.
But, it would not make much difference, although it is a step in the right direction. It only makes sense that JBI have an array of modules for the purpose of selling processors. They are an Equipment Vendor. The modules are the equipment.
You are forgetting about the engineering required. This actually was accurately depicted in what we take to be the SAIC Summary (which I question the validity of).
The figures given were a total of 8.5 Million to complete, with an OOM estimate done. The OOM estimate is 5% of the total or 500k. makes sense. That gives a total of 9 Million Capital Cost. The Summary also made mention that there would be 2 Million further of Engineering work required. Makes sense to me. Fits with industry benchmarks.
JBI does not have the expertise to do the engineering work.
That leaves 6.5 Million to build the unit with a detailed design done. JBI would provide key pieces of equipment and a construction firm builds it. 2-3 Million for JBI, the rest for PM and the contractor.
There is not very little overlap, there is lots of overlap. The other unfortunate thing is, all of JBI's potential P2O customers think the way I do, so there is not much point in having an alternate reality on this message board or anywhere for that matter. What I am saying is exactly the same as what is in the SAIC Summary that longs here think so highly of, if you want further proof. I question the authenticity of that document. The financials make sense, the rest of it I can drive a truck through it, but the numbers do make sense.
Bullshit!! Hate to post in such a basic manner, but it seems commonly done here. P2O is a process industry like any other. The same concepts apply. In fact, much of the technology is the same. In industrial gases, we had preconfigured solutions available to us from Head Office, much like P2O. And does P2O utilize a distillation tower? same thing applies... Process industry implies a fluid or powder substance being processed, the same CAPEX processes apply.
I guess I can't help!!!
oh yes it can. Typical percentage costs do not change much between different capital projects... I have been on enough of them to know that, for over 10 years.
Ask me any specific question on anything in my post and I will answer as best as I can.