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"AVI, question for you, given your deep knowledge of the process. Do you think the DMC would halt the trial if the two arms were performing at near equal levels, even if there was no formal futility analysis scheduled?"
I called the company IR with this exact question (as you might want to, too). I had to leave a message, but an answer was returned within an hour. The trial was not set up to be halted if both arms mirrored each other, the only time that the DMC would halt the trial would be due to an increase in CD events on the V arm.
"all those ADCOM panel members who voted No should be punished for engaging in prohibited practices, imo. And they should be banned for life to participate in ADCOMs or any other federal panels for not doing their job right"
No, not right...............again I was listening to this meeting on Adam Feinstein live stream with my wife who knows a bit about FDA studies, the Chairwoman charged the panel was an impossible task/question, "do they know that elevated triglycerides cause cardiovascular diseases/events" the key word was "KNOW" when that word was said, my wife informed me that I'm not going to make a ton of money today, nor cheat her out of going out for dinner, she had listened like I had asked and we we're still going out to dinner.
Biotech stocks are risky stocks, the FDA asked for Proof, R-I hopefully will give them that. Had I not had money to buy dinner before the hearing, I should not have been into the stock to begin with. Over dinner, I was instructed that the panel did their jobs. Now, the question put to the panel, well that's another story, yet even that, imo, needs more learned medical people to address it.
Congraduations JL
Well, the fat lady sang and I'm still not claiming I was wrong, I'm here to tell you she sang to soon; yea, old joke, no one loses a ball game, they just run out of time; but more seriously, I was wrong.
I thought we'd close above $4.50. I also know this, you knew more about EPA than I, and/or you have bigger balls than I.
I didn't buy and hold any AMRN when it was selling around 86 cents, I started buying again when it went back over a buck, then in earnest when it was a buck an a quarter, then more after the secondary. I thought that was going to be a disaster, the market told me I was wrong. I think it took the market a while to get me to understand for I've been burnt many times with bio's secondaries. AMRN is a different cat, she went up after the completion of the secondary, then management stepped up to the plate and forced the conversion.
Good management, good product and a new message board friend, what's not to like. Truth be told, I'm still more impressed by your college roommate quoting and footnoting his own work. Brilliant, simply brilliant!
Enjoy the weekend, one and all.
Geetings JL
I hear you, but at the end of the day, what makes a market is what each and everyone of us thinks, then does. Yes, I've read about what you are saying about folks waiting to "break even" thus they are the overhang that you're speaking of (as well as BB). I just think that way to many years have past for you to be right, I think we're seeing market manipulation done by professionals.
I bought in two lots prior to ANCHOR SPA, I had visions of some fast easy money, my wife is a NICU doc, I read and knew next to nothing about Trigs at the time; but hell, lowering any number with "fish oil" where's the down side? My buys were 7.33 and 7.something. My wife works 24 hour shifts, she was home when we listened to Fienstein (sp) interpret the FDA hearing for us. I was pissed that I didn't make any easy money, it was a fun morning all the same, she had fun claiming "I told you so". She had, she told me that the FDA had changed how they are now approving drugs, where they are now more geared for seeing statistical significant. She was involved in surfacten where they just stopped giving the placebo, which pretty much stopped the trial, she claimed that the FDA now wants proof, maybe not that solid, but proof.
Anyway, when AMRN dropped to 3 bucks, I double up, bringing my ownership to a whooping 1,200 shares. When, AMRN didn't stop dropping at 3, I kept buying and buying. I now own a bunch and know a bit more about not only Tgs, but also EPA. You could say, in no small part thanks to you.
Plus, I think DES is a super huge market, the fact that only 150,000 folks are on V is astonishing, so my point, I think more people are like me, they are holding there underwater shares along with many more new ones, so we can disagree that you think a lot of individuals held on for years and years only to be made whole.
I'm sticking to this being market manipulation. Furthermore, I believe that prior to a positive 8-K being released, the company informs the market makers so that could be this penny ante buying and selling going on.
I will agree with you that we now will have a new resistance points. I also think we're going higher before the fat lady signs it's 4:00PM.
JL, Yesterday, the trains weren't running, I don't think you can make anything of yesterday's trading.
I'm not nor ever have I ever claimed to be a genius, but I do know that when you have more buying than selling, the stock is going up. The market has been open an hour when I looked at the volume, more than a million shares have been traded, that trading was sparked by a good 8-K report, yet we're up only smidgen-that's why I think a professional is involved in accumulating a position.
Currently, Amarin is treating 150,000 patients. The reality is post R-I that number is going to grow exponentially, the PPS will follow. It's my belief that AMRN is under accumulation, clearly I have no clue as to who is accumulating, but (to me) they look like a pro and they are the reason we're trading where we are now. Folks are getting suckered into selling right now, or believing way to much in TA. I really don't know, I'm playing with my money and I'm having a good time, how about you?
Bid, the Theater was closed, no ticket taker available
He's wishing he was home in a Wisconsin bed
But there's fifteen feet of snow in the east
Colder than a welldigger's ass
And it's colder than a welldigger's ass
Anyone interested, Jan. 19 $3.50 calls are selling @ .85, if JT gives a great presentation, you can pickup some scratch money.
"Wonder how many shares outstanding at time of rumored offer of $20?"
Doesn't matter, R-I was worth ever cent.
Also, JL....I think that dude was/is right about someone accumulating, check volume for the past couple of weeks, to me it looks like someone is, too. As for yesterday, we're back to my old Tom Wait's line about it being colder than a well digger ass with 15 feet of snow. Lets see what today brings, the ticket taker might even show up today.
Fly, I think you read to much into your charts but you're playing with your own money plus I usually find your thoughts interesting, even if I don't trade off of them.
I disagree with your thoughts about Caddiedad, I think Caddiedad is a lot like a good number of folks that read these posts. Caddiedad said he knows EPA (or maybe he's wrong and only thinks he knows EPA, for we could all be wrong) but Caddiedad knows that the Fat Lady is going to sing soon, and he wants to know he has good seats to hear her.
I imagine lots of us have traded AMRN over the years, but most of us are now seated waiting for the Song to begin. We've bought our tickets, but there will always be folks that want seats at the last minute when they hear the Fat Lady warming up, what Caddiedad was saying is those folks will be paying dearly for their tickets, why, well they sold nice seats for a nickel or so gain.
Sam, does the government buy V for this study?
It's nice to know that you feel you have a point in what you write, I often wonder about that, I also wonder if you have anything else to do besides worry about AMRN. That aside, could you please; you know only for slower people like myself, explain how it's a conspiracy theory that AMRN is up after the CEO bought shares?
Are you suggesting that he's told all his friends that when he buys, that's a signal for them to buy buy buy. My goodness, this might be much worst than that Ebayer trying to pick up forty bucks, we all know that you're no party poop-per for you've told us all that; but maybe you might want to report your suspicions about this market moving event.
What was that you were saying?
Vascepa Icosapent Ethyl 1 Gram 120 Capsules See original listing
Vascepa-Icosapent-Ethyl-1-Gram-120-Capsules
Item Sold
Item condition:
New
Ended:
Dec 21, 2017 , 8:22AM
Price:
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izabel31 (157 )
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"Is this a technical run? Or is there something going on that we don’t know about right now?"
I'll give my two cents, some tax sellers have decided they screwed up and shouldn't have worried about taxes and are buying back their old positions.
Folks with bigger balls than I, shorted AMRN knowing about the tax sell off (above). I've applied this strategy myself; but never with a three dollar stock. I consider myself an amateur when it comes to shorting, I run to cover on the drop of a hat, all amateurs do.
I think we saw both of the above today.
However, I hope we are seeing new buyers. I could make the argument that that's it for the volume has been up the past few days prior to today's move, smart money moves first, or so they say.
Options had a little volume for a change, not sure how that plays into this, we'll soon see.
Mainstreet, please list me right under Jomama, death and gravity is about all I'm 100% sure of, so list me as 99% sure, for those that want to know where that missing 1% comes from, well the crooked FDA, that's where.
Tas, somewhere after the 60% results were released, I called AMRN's IR. I left a short message and within a half hour my call was returned. I was told that the FDA nor AMRN have a clue about ANYTHING, the only thing that both can conclude is that V is not harming anyone, but it would be erroneous to assume that V was doing x y or z.
I flat out asked, if the placebo arm mirrored the V arm, would the DMC allow the company to continue spending/wasting it's money on something that obviously wasn't working, his simple answer was yes, that is true. The study wasn't set up to be stopped under the circumstance you presented. He was very friendly and we both chatted about how we sure hope that isn't the case ect.
All that said, death is rather hard to hide, so I don't believe you need someone of Jason Bull skills to project the outcome of this trail. I believe the company is knowledgeable on exactly how V is working.
Personally, I was hopeful that the DMC could drag their feet prior to releasing the 80% data to the point that the last needed event had already happened, I no longer believe that will happen after today's call extending that event into 2018. I didn't play the guessing game on this tread, I played it myself selling covered calls as well as puts. I do have some Aug 18's outstanding, after these, I'm done selling calls. I think we may stop.
Lastly, I find it asinine to think that management would hire an investment banker to sell our company, management is doing fine. plus most folks in general like their jobs, or they find a new one, so nuts on that idea. However, for you guys that think BP is coming, AMRN has nearly 500 million of tax credits, so wet your whistles a bit more when you place a value on your shares.
what is considered a 'ton of shares'?
IMO,10,000-15,000 ia but I think some folks here own 100,000+
I own 6,825 and have sold puts 3.00 puts for September as well as December. 10 contracts, each. Interestingly, my 3.00 June puts were put to me, and that started AMRN's climb.
I think folks should listen to BB's claim about generic approval, as well as to the folks that are taking, as well as those folks that are prescribing EPA when making their investment decisions. AMRN's RI study may go down in medical history as a great thing, as for investors, maybe not so much..........remember, I told you some of my shares were pre 2012's.
I sold thirty of those contracts, got a little beer money. I also sold thirty Aug. 18 7.00 calls for .15 or for a total of 421.99; however, I noticed later that the 8's were trading damn nearly the same, I'm thinking of selling some of those, Monday. Greed comes to play, I do not have a ton of shares like some here do, so I would like to be hanging onto them if we hit the big time. I own pre 2012 shares and was to foolish (or scared) to buy when we were selling under a dollar. I like big balls Jess (as well as his college roommate)
SOLD AMRN 07/18/17 30 JUL 21, 2017 7.00 C @ .05 121.95
BB, you were right about those July's 7 calls, I had looked at open interest rather than daily volume, that said, those 7's were trading yesterday for three cents. I'm thinking someone besides just you are thinking something up today.
Were you a point guard?
I know my their from my there, sorry about that..............I just don't know what's going on with these calls.
Real interesting day of trading, all of a sudden their is an orderly bid ask for AMRN's options, for this Friday's $7.00 calls, ask .06 bid .05 and 5,000 or so have been traded today.
A nickel for a call three dollars out of the money, one that's due to expire this Friday is real interesting.
Nice trade, take your money and sell next Friday's 2.50 puts.
Should be an interesting open, 2,078,248 shares were traded after hours. Lots of folks were flat out sellers when the deal when sideways, I wonder how many were naked short sellers that just jumped on the train wreck? Like I said, should be an interesting day.
insert-text-here
Not always, you forget about the old fashion market makers, they're still around, it's their job to keep order; also, it's much easier to do so with buy orders than sell, so I wouldn't get overly concern about anything, just yet. Plus, these are the same guys that drop the market down in a heartbeat to take out sell orders only to drive it back up to where it was. Seriously wrong, but legal.
I also have looked back at volume, yes, it's heavy now; but it was also heavy the last time the DMC went looking into AMRN. I'm still hoping that the DMC drags their collective feet long enough that the trial hits their number of events for it to be stopped. It would be nice if AMRN continued to go up while this was happening, but it's not necessary, the end results is the piper that will be calling the tune.
Lastly, anyone that thinks the option market is telling a story about AMRN is wrong, the amount of contracts sold is ridiculously small, plus the bid/ask is asinine. I'm a tiny player in options, that saying, I made a little jingle selling 3 dollar puts (which I posted at the time) I also didn't do half bad buying 3 dollar calls, I exercised those today-partly as a protest to let those in control know what I think of their bid/ask spreads. I'm sure they care! I do not believe the option market for AMRN will take off until after a major announcement is filed via an 8K or a 13D. I also think the easy money is over for selling puts, that is, if there is such a thing as 'easy money'
JL had the wisdom of understanding brilliance, your freshman roommate quoting himself is stuff of legend. You talking about it years later makes you an ideal drinking buddy, Cheers
"We are rapidly approaching the interim announcement"
500 July 21 $4.00 call contracts were traded today. I noticed this for the June 16 $3.00 puts that I wrote were assigned to me.
I'm not sure why you say it isn't Amarin's style. I think it's a great idea to be seen for free; obviously, John has something to say, that hasn't been the case for the past few years.
I also think it's more likely that anyone interested in buying AMRN wouldn't show their hand with an upfront stock purchase, not when they could have a professional hedge fund do their buying for them, we have been holding around three bucks for quite a long time now, haven't we?
By using a hedge fund, if AMRN lays and egg, whatever or whomever was behind the buying won't end up with egg on their face; but if R-I hits the ball out of the park, then the whomever would own a nice enough position that the board would have to listen to whatever they wanted to talk about.
Back to hiding under my rock, bye.
North, Thanks, yes a lot has happened, but more needs to be done. I do not see why AQB doesn't franchise rather than playing Amarin and GIA.
Dew, sorry about preaching, I'll read more and write less.
What's unfortunate is that it has taken way to long for AQB to get it's fish to market. I'm revisiting AQB for I've just read where the earth's population will grow another billion people in twelve years (that's going from 7 to 8 billion). While I may agree with you about personally rather eating fresh caught wild salmon, these GMO salmon will provide protein to these extra people as well as many other folks. Salmon (farmed or fresh) is good for you.
North, a while back you were talking about AQB genetically modified salmon, I believe you had a link where they are now working/studying on how to increase the levels of EPA in it's salmon, if so would you please resend the link. Thanks, Slim
If you like this horse to win, I think selling naked puts is a great way to play AMRN. I pretty much thought that today's event would be a wash, and I sold both naked puts as well as covered calls, both $3.50's. It matters little to me if I own more shares at 3.50, or if I sell some at the same, to use the same gambling analogy, either way, I picked up a little more scratch money. If my calls are called, I'll replace them if/when the market dictates it's time to do so.
"Yes we can...
1) nobody on this board (besides maybe HDG) talks to management
2) besides that, nothing really new from the presentation"
I've read an awful lot of opinions on this board, but this one takes the cake, believe me Mercator, if I've talked with management, a lot of others on this board have as well.
What they will tell you is this, it's called a blinded study for they know nothing until told by the DMC, the same holds true for the FDA.
For all the company knows, the V group could be running stride by stride with the placebo group. The company is very good at getting back to shareholders, so if you have a question, call them.
I reread the company's last report and I agree with you, I do not see by hitting the 80% event to trigger a 8-K filling, that said, I still think we'll see a market reaction (buying). Time will tell, here's the report I read:
http://investor.amarincorp.com/releasedetail.cfm?releaseid=1006769
Not sure why I didn't get a hyper link, whatever.
"I will be very surprised if there is no announcement of the 80% onset by next week's CC"
I wouldn't be, I think hitting the 80% mark classifies as an occurrence of a significant corporate events. Thus, it becomes a reportable event in the from of an 8-K filling, the company cannot withhold that type of information from the market to add glamor to it's CC, plus the Company cannot play around with this number since it's provided to them by the DMC.
Patience is needed here as well as cool minds. I take it as a positive that that PY guy hit the road, what is his agenda?
Hi Zip, you stated your opinion, so you're not wrong as I did earlier, so I can't be wrong either. I wasn't there when the company and the FDA were in discussions about how the trial was going to be run, clearly the company would have liked to have stopped the study at 60% for obvious financial reasons; those same financial reasons are not so obvious now. I've talked with Gene Mack (IR for Amarin) he claims that the company can only accept the results from the DMC, they can not interface with the DMC, he stated that the company has publicly stated that they want the trial to run it's course.
I have no idea why they added the 80% stop if they didn't want it, I was only giving my opinion, perhaps the company changed it's mind over the life of this study, perhaps the FDA required it if they were to give a 60% look see, I don't know.
Whatever, I can you a better answer on what that short time is that any company has to issue a PR after receiving market changing information, it's 4 business days. They have to issue a 8-K. I think Fish's charts are telling us we're going to be seeing a 8-K soon. Good luck
"Very simply...I was making the same mistake you are making...That is putting too much emphasis on the PE and not enough on the SEs..And yes I understand the PE is crucial, and am in no way diminishing it...It's just that the SE's in this particular trial are if not "crucial' they are very important.."
If what you are saying is true (I also think it is) isn't it in both the company's as well as the FDA best interest to have the DMC drag their feet analyzing and reanalyzing the data until the trial has completed it's course before releasing the 80% results? It's really only months that we are talking about, personally, that is what I think is going to happen, however, that just my opinion, I'll be clear, I think I'm about the least knowledgeable one here.
Maz, if I had shorted AMRN, then sold the puts, they would be covered puts. My thinking is AMRN will be trading higher then three bucks, so I get to keep what I had sold the puts for come expiration day, or I'll own another thousand shares, which is alright with me, too.
The 893.00 is after Scottrade's commissions.
It's your money and you can do with it as you want; but in my opinion, folks paying 91 cents to protect a three dollar stock should be buying CD's.
Furthermore, buying out of the money puts for a three dollar stock, well folks that do that should hire an investment advisor. Again, it's your money, so have at it.
I've sold naked Mar 17 3's puts @ .39
Jun 16 3.00 P @ .45
Sep 15 3.00 P @ .64
Dec 15 3.00 P @ .91-that's 893.00 for selling 10 contracts, easy money if AMRN is trading north of three bucks come December, and if it is, so be it.
I often hope I'm collecting Py's money when he boasts that he's picking up a handful of puts, time will tell, it's all about RI.