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AXON there is no need to explain this stock's prospects other than to say that I would consider shorting it with up 20% of my account at certain levels.
CORT 3/18 court filings against TEVA will put a stay on ANDA approval for cash crop Korlym
CORT develops treatments designed to modulate cortisol receptors located throughout the body.
CORT has a library of ~300 pre-clinical glucocorticoid receptor modulators
Lead developmental compound, relacorilant, will enter Ph3 EOY/18.
If CORT can get relacorilant to market before TEVA's Korlym analog reaches the market, this stock will have significant upside.
ONCS hired former AVXS CEO Daniel OConnor. How responsible was he for AVXS technological innovation? I don't know.
ONCS technology involves localized injection of a cytokine into tumor followed by the delivery of electrical pules
Preliminary data in the combo therapy with Keytruda will be presented in 2018.
Breakthrough Therapy & Fast Track Designations are possibilities.
2/28/18, Cash = $37.6mn giving them a runway into Q4/2018.
LGCY is a battleground unit/stock
Management has made clear their intentions to convert to a C-Corp from a pass-through entity
If they are successful, the market value of LGCY assuming an EBITDA multiple of just 6 would mean a pps of ~7.50.
The bear case is that its hedges significantly reduce realized oil prices. $1 change in the price of a barrel of oil has only brought $.25 to their bottom line. And, upcoming debt maturities reduce the chances of re-structuring.
GNCA has lost 85% of its value since the unexpected 9/17 pivot to immuno-oncology
H1/2019 is the expected time frame to read out Ph1 data from their lead neoantigen cancer vaccine.
Q1/18 cash = $51.2mn and they are tapping their ATM. Runway extends into Q4/2019
Optimism revolves around the fact that their HSV vaccine reduced viral shedding despite not being marketable.
CKHUY is Hong Kong based conglomerate that trades at 0.8 P/B with a 3.2% yield.
47% of Revs are derived from Europe.
Major constituent companies include:
* 75.7% interest in CK Infrastructure
* 40.2% interest in Husky Energy
* Telecoms in Europe and Asia
* Port Division which includes the largest Port in Brazil
* A.S. Watsons Retail
* 60.4% interest in Nasdaq-listed Pharma HCM
Equity is stabilizing after decline related to the transition to scion of the long-time leader of the company.
TENX is an ultra-low float biotech with one treatment its pipeline.
Levosimendan will go into a Ph2 study to treat PH-HFpEF during H-2/18.
PH-HFpEF is high blood pressure in the arteries supplying the lung. Presently, there is no approved drug for this condition. Supplemental O2 is used to alleviate symptoms.
Levo is a compound with a a 16-yr history of use in Europe. Its inotropic and lusitropic properties are an indication that it may work in PH-HFpEF.
12/31/17 Cash = $9.5mn. Burn has been ~$1.6mn / Q ; but, expenses will increase significantly when the Ph2 begins during H2/18.
ROKU 5/18 Citron announced they had covered their short and went long
ROKU is the only pure play OTT player that generates ad rev.
ROKU reported $225mn in ad revenue during 2017. The TAM is ~70B
The Disney acquisition of DTC streaming service BAMTech implies that ROKU MC should approach $500 per subscriber
ROKU would be a natural choice for a take-out by NFLX.
2/5/8/11 week #2
NBRV will file an NDA for lemefulin in CABP in Q4/18
Cash runway thru Q1/20
Public float has been bloated to achieve that cash runway
Despite efficacy proven in two Ph3 studies, recent stock weakness has been attributed to safety concerns
Safety concerns focus on diarrhea found in 12% of treatment arm compared to 1% of control arm.
Lemefulin will mostly be prescribed for drug resistant cases of CABP, approximately 5% of the market
UCTT revs increased more than 60% in 2017. After Q1/2018, the market seems to perceive this as a one-time event.
Growth for UCTT services could continue in the 20% range; but, the net income margin will at best hold steady at 8.1%
Without growing margins, Semi stocks do not usually make good investments
REPH crashed 5/18 after an unexpected CRL for the IV version of its post operative pain drug.
Here are REPH's other major assets and liabilities:
Dexmedetomidine in Ph2 peri procedural pain
Fadolamine in Ph2 for intrathecal injection
EOQ-1/2018 Cash = ~$51mn
Growing contract mnfring business that generated $19.5mn in Q1/18.
Senior secured debt with interest expense running ~$2mn/Q
MPXEF is a canadiank-listed grower with most of its operations in the U.S.
founded by investment bankers who have largely funded the company with capital from Abu Dhabi.
MPX brand concentrates is award-winning and responsible for 46% of revs.
Early focus has been in the state of Arizona which has market size that is 90% of the size of Canada's market
MPXEF is expanding into MA, NE, MD & Canada.
partnered with Israeli pharma company called Panexia. Panexia produces a wide variety of concentrate products with specialized portions of cannabinoids to address various maladies.
partnered with a rotary production cultivation system manufacturer in AZ & NE to produce flower vertically. Production cost will be under $1.00 per gram.
Already EBITDA positive.
TTPH will have a PDUFA date on 8/28/18 for an antibiotic aimed at complicated intra-adominal infections.
Also in the pipeline:
* Fast tracked Ph1 treatment for bacterial pneumonia
* Ph1 treatment against resistant bacteria generally
TTPH has a deal with Everest Medications of China to commercialize Eravacycline in Asia.
Q1/2018 Cash = $118mn
If Eravacycline is approved, pps could reach for $7. I would not own this stock pre-approval.
TTPH's most attractive asset from a take-out perspective is its synthetic chemistry I.P.
The bear case for all antibiotics is that most of today's market is fulfilled by cheap generics and those who get "super bugs" tend to be immunocompromised and knocking on heaven's door.
FLNT is a profitable digital marketing agency that just spun off its money-losing big data analytic division (RDVT)
Q1/18 FLNT posted positive earnings of .03, AFTER adding back spin-off expenses.
Q4/17 FLNT posted -.10 EPS WITH RBVT as an operating division.
Insiders purchased $100K at around 2.50 per share in May.
On the downside, even without RDVT net profit margins run about 3%.
AYX is the leader in a software niche known as civilian data science. AYX software offers enterprises predictive answers for questions about herd behavior.
Tableau Software's most recent product offering is the first to address the same niche. Even so, DATA 's civilian data science product is only a supplement to their marketing focused product offerings. It is not designed to be a direct competitor to AYX.
Q-1/2018 earnings showed 50% YOY rev growth.
During the remainder of 2018, AYX will be launching two new products: 1) PROMOTE offers last mile predictive analysis 2) CONNECT offers first mile predictive analysis.
Based on these product launches, growth trends in their international business and likely sandbagging of guidance, AYX could grow 12% Q-over-Q.
America's biggest problems are degenerate media, multiculturalism, true hate groups(like the ADL & SPLC) and the constant undermining of american traditionalism (including xtianity).
These problems came into existence as media, government & the populace became increasingly non-european. I lived outside the country for most of the Obama years. When I returned the degeneracy, disorder and filth of the U.S. was shocking. We are now caught between the open-border Soros faction and the the warmongering Trumpist zionist faction. Only a return to a traditionalism that built this country will make it safe.
I can you tell this. If authorities come for my guns leaving me to the devices of the aforementioned hate groups, antifia & mesoamerican gangsters, it will be time to start slaughtering the "authorities" that jacked this country up.
The second amendment predated all these problems. Things were fine. Ask yourself what changed. It's pretty obvious.
APHB 's Science :
CORI 's Alzheimer strategy looks like the best way to profit from this malady in the stock market.
Its Aracept weekly patch is a cholinergic treatment with GI benefits over the oral medication. It is being evaluated by the FDA under the 505B2 pathway for bioequivalence.
NDA submission for the Aracept patch will likely take place 1-2/19
CORI is also taking eh bioequivalece pathway for their Mementine patch. Mementine is the second most subscribed Alzheimer medication.
CORI will not commercialize these products. They are looking for partners.
Cash runway could extend to the presently anticipated PDUFA date for the Aracept patch.
Their primary source of income right now is the manufacturing and technology of Crest White Strips for Proctor & Gamble. CORI is in the middle of a project to meet increasing demand for this product by expanding production capacity.
CORI burned $18mn in the most recent Q. Revs increased ~42% YOY.
CORI is also involved in helping its partner address a CRL for Twirla
I'm reducing.
It has a reverse split float
I don't want anymore than I can sell when the volume returns to normal.
SNDX 's lead program is in a Ph3 study for a highly-difficult-to-treat breast cancer.
Entinostat's Ph3 results will be out Q-3/2018.
Entinostat is also being assessed in a combination with other flagship drugs.
Cash runway is only into H-1/2019.
This will become a struggling biotech if the Ph3 lung cancer results are weak.
FTR (update)
Current trends indicate that loming debt redemptions will be satisfied.
Continuing cost reductions along with an EBITDA margin pushing past 40% will be the signal that FTR has recovered.
PAVM is a medical device company with 4 products:
Carpex reduces the invasiveness of carpal tunnel surgery. The device may be in the final stage of FDA 510K approval process.
FDA is reviewing PAVMs cadaver study and approval could come in 6-7/18. TAM = 600,000 procedures x $1500 in the U.S.
Port IO is a vascular access device that is designed for extended inter-osseus access. PAVM is presently conducting a 7-day animal study. If this study is successful, it will go on to a human study
Disappear is an ear infection control technology
Esophageal Cancer detection device was in-licensed in April.
It seems like everything hinges on near-term FDA approval of Carpex.
Thanks for continuing to follow up on these. You have a well-honed way of looking at the markets and I appreciate it.
I bought APHB the last 2 trading days.
APTO has two early-stage oncology with excellent commercial potential waiting to ENTER the clinic.
CEO may be the most hands-on chief in small cap biotech.
APTO-253 is an AML treatment that is on FDA clinical hold for manufacturing issues. Peak sales could be in the range of ~$550mn
CG806 is a pre-clinical drug with a potential in B-cell. It could address a $1B opty
Cash runway is into Q2/2019.
In 2017, it took an average:
$5mn to run a PH1 oncology study
$11mn to run a PH2 oncology study
$22mn to run a PH3 oncology study
APTO needs to raise ~$200mn to get across the finish line.
I have to interrupt my normal trading routine for the next several days. All I will be doing is liquidating positions until late next week.
As for CTMX, I didn't develop the conviction I need to take more than a pilot position.
ALIM is a slow growth, unprofitable company with one good product.
markets opthalmic drug delivery device for Diabetic Macular Edema (DME)
continues to conduct post-approval studies to scientifically support marketing efforts.
Installations last a minimum of 3 years. Company may not be significantly profitable until they reach the point when their market includes new installations + re-installations.
ALIM's partner in the EU will submit data to expand the device into the Uveitis indication. They will submit this data in Q3/2018 and approval could come in H-1/2019.
Q1/2018 report showed their operational losses declining and $23.8mn
in cash. Re-installation in the European market should begin in 2019.
It would be a nice opportunity to see this stock experience tax loss selling in 2018
Trumps Presidency in a Mural :
FOLD is my largest position. I didn't add today; but, I bought 3x last week.
You might like UAVS. I took a small position today. I'm willing to add
IFRX is a recent IPO that has showed significant institutional support.
Lead program is enrolling Ph2B to study first-in-class anti-human complement factor antibody in patients with Hidranitis Suppurativa (HS).
The data for this study will be available H-1/2019.
Presently, 50% of HS patients do not respond to the only approved treatment.
5/3/18, IFRX raised $51mn in a secondary stock offering.
CCXI is in Ph3 with a treatment targeting the same receptor. Interestingly, CCXI MC is only 66% of IFRX MC.
Earnings. Had some unexpected revenue. Only lost .26 cents/share.
Looks like it will squeeze a little, then crush chasers.
NUG.v / NULGF explores a property in the Cortex Trend, Nevada in proximity to 3 Barrick deposits.
ABX is second largest shareholder. Oceana Gold is the largest.
NULGF recently hired an exploration specialist from ABX.
I like it. I will prolly start it tomorrow.
CATB (update)
Cash runway will only get them thru summer/18
Their platform strategy is to engineer molecules that simultaneously modulate multiple targets within related disease pathways.
Despite low cash levels, the potential reward here is great. This is worthy of a GTC stink bid.
PAGS is the Brazilian Square
2018 Revenues = $21.1mn
Growth expectations are 10.7% per year until 2022
User penetration at the time of the last report was 34.6%
a company called CIELO with close ties to Brazilian banking industry announce 5/18 that they will be transitioning to a business model more similar to SQ & PAGS.
HPPI is an OTCQB Pharma with several milestones during the rest of 2018, including:
1) Ph2b pivotal resutls
2) NDA submission
3) Commercialization Strategy
holds the exclusive USA license for potent best-in-class Hedgehog Inhibitor.
FDA approval could come H-1/2019
Lead program is targeted at Basal Cell Carcinoma Nevus.
With Ph2b results, the lead program may be eligible for fast track status.
This program is partnered with Mayne Pharma, an Australian ASX-listed company which is also the majority shareholder of HPPI. This relationship is so dominant that it may/probably does disadvantage HPPI shareholders.
Still, uplisting and significant upside is a possible for HPPI shares.
PLX the path forward revolves around completing commercial development for their Fabry treatment without shareholder dilution.
3/18 Management said they had a cash runway through the end of 2019.
The Fabry Ph3 study will be read out mid-2019.
PLX has sought a vote to increase authorized shares by 28% at the next annual meeting during 5/18.
If a partner could be found for at least one of the two next treatments in their pipeline, dilution would almost definitely be avoided. The next treatments in their pipeline are for: 1) Ulcerative Colitis 2) CF
PLX may also be willing to take on debt to avoid dilution.
PLX may again be a tax loss selling candidate.
EXEL 's Cabo is approaching blockbuster status. Its sales grew 95% YOY in Q-1/2018.
Q-1/2018 began operating with a net operating profit, independent of co-development/partnership fees.
EXEL is investigating CABO in nearly 20 different combinations/indications.
Once heavily indebted, EXEL has no short- or long-term debt.
All these successes in perspective, EXEL must continue to grow into any MC > $6B. At $10B in a bearish market this may be a scalp short.
LYSCF : After 3Qs of fiscal 2018, it looks like this company will turn its first profitable year.
As China becomes more environmentally conscious, it shuts down the most polluting rare earth mines.
Chinese rare earth miners are now subject to whims of Chinese regulations and are difficult to trade for westerners
Lynas has a unique business model. Ore is mined in Australia for part of the year and processed in Malaysia all year. The most polluting part of rare earth production has been exported to Malaysia. This is a competitive advantage that junior rare earth miners will find difficult to replicate.
OGRMF is the only public cannabis grower in Canada to have approached profitability while growing production levels.
OGRMF is growing both dry weight and oil production.
A production milestone of 36,000 kilos by the time recreational cannabis becomes legal in Canada will put this company on a path to profitability. Ceiling production is 113,000 kilos.
5/18 MC = ~ $500mn
Q-2/2018 reported a sequential lowering of cost/gram from 2.19/g to
1.22/g
The article doesn't say anything about the projected price at which cannabis producers can sell their production.