CIO, SignalPoint Asset Management, 2008 to 2024, Retired
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Skim Ice on the Ponds
Foretell of Winter's coming.
Hats, Gloves, Boots needed.
Happy Winter's Solstice To All!!!
(In the Northern Hemisphere)
I hope the MESA Yo-Yo String doesn't fray with all this action recently!
Good morning JJ8,
It needs to crest $85 or better to get me interested in reducing my share inventory. A drop to $57 will trigger an addition of 12% to share count.
I'd like to see it crest $72 and maintain that price right now.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi E, Re: .......I never get that last minute thing.......
Maybe it's the difference between "strong hands" and "weak hands" holding the shares.
OAG
Hi J20, Re: Contributory IRA history.............
Here's a bit more detail on the simple IRA to which I contribute.
Vanguard's growth ETF is what's the principal driver here. The Flexshares income fund is where most of the cash is stashed along the way.
The biggest problem with VUG is that currently it's around $300/share. So, in the early days a single share buy sent the account heavily into the "growth" side. Now that there's some accumulation, a single share doesn't wreck havoc with the Equity/Cash ratio. During VUG's slump of 2022 and into 2023 I was able to buy shares consistently while the price/share was below the 26 week Moving Average. Since early 2023 the cash has been rising slowly. It's currently right around 20% of the portfolio value as of the end of November.
The RAVI cash side of the account looks like a pretty dramatic move on occasion, but if you look at the scale, you'll see the big dips weren't really very big in price/share. Just today I took surplus cash (from contributions) and bought some more shares of RAVI at $74.86. It's currently earning at an annual rate of 5.24%. So, it's helping all on its own.
The additional shares bought in VUG during the downturn of 2022 kept the total value (first graph) pretty constant even though the share price declined by nearly 1/3. Dollar Cost Averaging would have been overpaying during the 2020 thru 2021 rally where Twinvest only occasionally added shares here. Then, in 2022 the emphasis shifted and allowed Twinvest to be adding shares as the price declined. I'd have to 'run the numbers' but I think Twinvest might be ahead of DCA over this time frame.
Hope this helps,
Tom
This looks like Tax Loss Sellers making their last trades before 12/31........
OAG
Thanks JD, Re: v-Wave rising risk profile......................
It appears that much of the shorter term appreciation potential has been 'used up' with this most recent rally.
The longer term v-Wave remains below its worrisome "Caution" level by two points currently. That's also two points above its Median level.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
This holding had zero cash held in reserve, so as (if) the price continues to rise, I'll be building a reserve for its future.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi J20, Re: Questions.................
1) The composite 10 stock portfolio is an IRA account and the cash is held in the same overall account structure.
2) Thanks for the simple IRA comment. I use a slightly modified Twinvest with the incoming deposits and the indicated investments. Instead of Mr. L's original 75/25 split between equity and cash, I started with 80/20 to be a bit more aggressive. So, my Twinvest Code is based upon that more aggressive split.
3) When I retire and are no longer contributing to that simIRA, I'll convert it to a Roth, probably. (I'll have to check on that)
Have a great weekend and happy holidays,
OAG Tom
That early AM dip had me a bit concerned but the close above $1 relieves some of my angst...................
It appears it kept getting accumulated even with today's selling................
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MESA&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75142355344
OAG
Hi CM,
I let 10% of the FCX position go today at $41.12. I'll hold the cash for a chance to later put it back to work at a discount from here.
Best wishes,
OAG
Hi IW, Re: ........Feels quite weird.............
Me, too. But I could get used to selling again if it continues!
I had three sales this AM and one 'vealie.' It makes me smile.
Thanks once again, Mr. Lichello!!!
Here's my broker's stock as AIM'd by me since AMTD was merged into SCHW......
Lastest sale was a 40+% LIFO and the position is up 100% since the merger.
Best wishes,
OAG
It's been a long wait to recover some cash in this holding. This is my history since the AMTD - SCHW merger back in 2020. The position has rebuilt to more shares than when it started with the repurchases along the way. It's nice to have a cushion of cash here again in case the price cycles yet again.
https://schrts.co/KZhXkUeE
This sale represents a 43% LIFO gain on that last buy. That's enough to help the overall portfolio's performance since it started. It's back just over 100% gain since 2020.
Best wishes,
OAG
................ Under Heavy Accumulation..................
Yes, since the end of October..............
https://schrts.co/SxIzwMFb
Best wishes,
OAG
Off topic.....
In college we had the
"So Happy It's Thursday" Face Club!
It was somewhat self explanatory as to what we did!
OAG
Hi JJ8, Re: CRSP price action..........................
My guess is it's a "Sell on the News" action. This isn't the first time CRSP has shown high amplitude price change as this histogram shows:
https://schrts.co/NSfSbXYF
I think it will be important to watch the transition of this company from basically a 'research' business to one of product development and distribution. Somewhere along the way they'll have to show a profit to reward those who've invested in them. I'm fond of watching the Accumulation/Distribution activity to see what is happening with strong and weak hands holding the stock. In the mean time I plan on trimming and backfilling my position as the price moves around. I last added 12% to my position at $47.56 in August and had the opportunity to part with 10% of the holding at $69.57 a few weeks ago. The core position remains.
With each cycle of the price the portfolio builds out a bit.
Hope this helps,
OAG
November, 2023 Close for my various AIM accounts:
10 Stock Composite Portfolio
(AB, CRSP, DOW, EPD, GNRC, JBL, MESA, PRIM, SCHW, WPC)
International "Style" ETF Composite Portfolio
(DEM, DGS, DIM, DLS, DOL, EFG, PIZ, SCHC, VNQI)
U.S. Business Sector ETF Composite Portfolio
(RSPC, RSPD, RSPF, RSPG, RSPH, RSPM, RSPN, RSPR, RSPT, RSPU, XLG)
Contributory IRA "Twinvest" Portfolio
(VUG, RAVI, Money Market Fund)
November proved to be beneficial in the recovery of earlier gains. All portfolios are "up" for the Year-To-Date. All accounts Cash Reserve levels range between 82% and 88% at the close of November.
Mr. Lichello continues to steer a proper course through these tricky seas.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
That's a nice finish for the Day.
OAG
October 27th was the most recent low in the $14s. Things are looking a bit better now.
Best wishes,
OAG
Good morning E, Re: Moving Above and Beyond...........................
Getting back above a buck a share is heartening.
Yes, and a break above $1 intra day.
Nice to see this wounded bird start to recover.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Hi Steve, Re: Punchbowl................
I was 21 years old and had just taken my physical for the Draft when I first saw it. It was quite moving for me.
Best wishes,
OAG Tom
Nice volume spikes Frida AM.
National Cemetery of the Pacific - Punchbowl crater in Honolulu.
It is a humbling place to visit. I was 21 years old and 1-A Draft status when I was last there. I was awaiting a letter from my Uncle Sam as to what uniform I would be wearing for the next couple of years.
As it turned out, the draft bill stalled in Congress and they never got to my lottery number. That was a lottery I "won" by losing!
Thanks for asking,
OAG Tom
1) descendants of royalty are still around.
2) milwaukee to Dallas to Honolulu.
3) yes, I thought Jon's idea was interesting, too.
The weather is better than Wisconsin. This is my first time back since 1971.
OAG
DING DING SING DING!!!!
WE HAVE A WINNER!!!
A secret Decoder is being prepared for you!!!
OAG Tom
Hi Steve, Re: Where....
Very good, but alas, not correct!
OAG
Clue #6
We went through Grabber's back yard to get here!
OAG Tom
Where In The World is Tomaso Vitello?
He's out searching for his childhood friend Carmen Sandiego. Who will be first to guess correctly!
1) Far away but still Home
2) Warm enough to Swim
3) National Highways don't connect all the Cities
4) Nobody drinks Punch from their Bowl
5) Royalty still exists here
That should get the Game started....
Winner will receive the coveted AIM Secret Decoder (if I can find my stash of them)!!!
Best wishes for a great Thanksgiving Weekend,
OAG
PS: I may be out of touch for the next week or so, but will announce the Winner when I get back.....
Since adding CRSP to my portfolio in May of 2022, there have been a few moments of hand wringing. However, trading around the core position has helped the overall cause. Currently, including the cash reserve, the position is up in value over 50%. Share price is up roughly 36%, so the opportunistic trading has added nicely to total return.
Best wishes,
OAG
Nice response to today's news on product. It looks like there's been some good cost control going on as well.
OAG
The threat of MESA being delisted sure didn't help the share price much.
In the 'olden days' I used to call my broker at this point and ask to have a stock certificate delivered to me. That way, I at least had a pretty bit of investment art to hang on the wall to remind me that things don't always go as planned!
OAG
.................. worth approximately $8.5 million...................
She probably had a kitchen to remodel.....
OAG