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Not a fan of bitcoin right now. It topped out in March. Bitcoin will crash along with everything else. After it crashes, and bottoms out, I'll get some, but "definitely not now".
Nice charts but they don't take into account the contributing factors that will cause the coming crash.
Quant Data
🚨 Another one… 🚨
A $12M+ OTM call spike just hit $VIX, the biggest spike yet. With 3 hours left in the trading day, will we see increased volatility?
Check this out👇
A $3.6M+ OTM call spike just hit $VIX right at the London session close. Is this a sign of what’s to come? We’ll see how $SPY and the market react!
Yep, give it all back. Sacagawea is my ancestor. Lewis and Clark got big land rewards and prestigious appointments, while the Indian girl didn't get squat. They would've all died if it wasn't for her. Give me my ancestral money and land deal too! 🙂
https://justdario.com/2024/08/norinchukin-bank-chaos-can-trigger-at-any-moment/
The bank mentioned in the above link is one of several that could trigger at any moment...
Just like 2008 - The "herd" is celebrating, thinking everything is ok, that the bull market is back on. They're pouring their money into this rally, at the most dangerous time in history.
That's interesting. also Nikkei 37,388 -674 (-1.77%)
China, US Team Up on Contact Group to Handle ‘Financial Stress’:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-us-team-contact-group-062337240.html
all the stars pointing towards a large broker being in trouble...
TY, L4Win. Hope yours was good as well. As you know, UVIX is risky, but potential for huge spike is here. Hard to know exactly when, but feels like the markets are in the eye of a hurricane rn.
You're right. The geopolitical tensions continue to escalate. This week is Jackson Hole and the DNC. I wouldn't be surprised to see Michelle Obama magically appear on the Presidential ticket.
Things have reached a flashpoint. Everything government does backfires on them, to include their schemes. The Fed is now trapped. -The BOJ can't raise rates, and the Fed can't lower rates. Either one happens, global financial markets will meltdown further. If the Fed doesn't cut rates, then recession will be worse.
Distorted economic data released last week (Truflation has the real data). Gov controlled the narrative on MSM, saying "this market can't crash and there are no signs of a recession", -Literally same thing was said in 2007-2008. The movie "The Big Short" comes to mind. OpEx is out of the way now. May see some hedge fund margin calls!
I follow 20 entities on twitter, smarter than me. That's who I learn from and find out what's "really" going on.. JustDario is one of my favs.
IS A LARGE BROKER USING CLIENTS’ FUNDS TO COVER ITS LOSSES?
https://justdario.com/2024/08/is-a-large-broker-using-clients-funds-to-cover-its-losses/
And here's another Nuclear Power Plant warning from CNN today:
"Safety at Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is deteriorating, IAEA warns"
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/17/europe/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-power-plant-iaea-warning-intl-latam
Someone seems hellbent on escalating things to involve nuclear weapons/nuclear power plants.
T24!
Russia claims Ukraine is planning to detonate a "dirty nuclear bomb" targeting nuclear power plants in Russia.
JUST IN: 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 Russia claims Ukraine is planning to detonate a "dirty nuclear bomb" targeting nuclear power plants in Russia. pic.twitter.com/3hSRvSB5eG
— BRICS News (@BRICSinfo) August 17, 2024
I kept my position small, as this one is so risky, but I know I'd be kicking myself if this thing spiked over $20 and I didn't have any exposure.
I'm seeing market and geopolitical manipulation at unprecedented levels. This whole world and market is one big powder keg right now. The Herd thinks the bull market is back on...nothing could be further from the truth. I've been buying Sept Puts all over the place.
I should probably place some standing UVIX orders in case I can't access my account like the last time.
back in UVIX w/ a small position. Give us that spike!
Holding through the weekend...
way too many potential "events" sitting on the table...
lol, but I have been buying (Sept Puts). I love this rally. I believe I'll be proven correct between now and then. It's not about NVDA. It's not about AI. -It's about the carry trade. It's about the Yen. It's about leverage.
NVDA was the poster child for the carry trade. I actually like NVDA, but it's tied up in this whole mess, and will have to be reset/rebalanced/revalued. Maybe I'll buy shares next year.
This was interesting on X:
zerohedge@zerohedge
"Yen Carry And AI Bubble Are The Same Trade"
nah, close enough. illustrates what's happening next week. We'll see....
Yep, I got some September Calls here, and some Puts on NVDA. We'll see what happens...
I've seen your charts on Bitcoin too. While I have mixed feelings on bitcoin, I must say you have some of the best-looking charts on ihub. Very well-prepared. That takes skill. Much better than my charts.
For viewing purposes, I do like the 3-month UDSPY chart.
I'd say you did good. One never loses money by taking profits. It's hard to predict "exact" tops and bottoms.
I made some trades today, most of which are options set for Sept.
I have not changed my bearish outlook. This week's reports may have a very short term bullish impact. But any day now this market is going to get dropped hard.
What I've already mentioned in yesterday's posts outweighs and overshadows any of this week's skewed reports, any charts, and any truce talk agreements.
I do welcome these high NVDA prices, buying Puts, etc at a bargain right now. I like it!
Huge beats:
Retail Sales 1.0%, Exp. 0.4%
Retail Sales ex auto 0.4%, Exp. 0.1%
Retail Sales Control Group 0.3%, Exp. 0.1%
Algos only respond to the here and now, not the revisions later. NVDA should have a good "day", and maybe tomorrow depending on the outcome below:
Michigan Consumer Sentiment revealed tomorrow. Doha truce talks in progress right now.
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now owns more short-term Treasuries than the Fed.
Berkshire Hathaway held $234.6 billion in short-term US Treasury Bills at the end of the 2nd quarter, according to its latest earnings report
That’s up 81% from the roughly $130 billion it owned at the end of 2023.
Mr. Buffet has always been good at being ahead of what's coming.
Y'all are brave. I closed my trade out yesterday right after the PPI. UVIX is one of the riskiest trades around, but offers one of the biggest potential rewards too. I may get back in, or try to catch the SVIX after a VIX spike. Some are saying the next VIX spike could be 3 figures. The "potential" for any one of several big events is on the table. With that said, here is some encouraging activity being observed, making me think someone knows something:
Quant Data
⚠️ Hmmm… This is interesting! ⚠️
OTM call spikes on $VIX have predominantly outweighed put spikes throughout the day, with multiple exceeding $1M in value. Is this a sign of what’s to come, or is it just noise?
Check this out👇
And then there's this:
Cheddar Flow
$VIX Huge $18M+ of OTM Calls 😳
Someone is either hedging or expects a pop from events like CPI and OPEX this week
These were all executed above the ask:
Cheddar Flow
$VIX Oh wow. They're really serious now 😬
Respectfully, our opinions and views differ greatly. As far as the war, cease-fire talks are slated for tomorrow in Qatar. We'll see how that goes.
You may have read my posts, but you didn't really pay attention to the content, or go any further to understand it. You are correct that I have a very grim outlook on the economy/markets right now. I'm looking forward to the time I can be bullish again, but that time is not now.
Hope you do well and enjoy your week.
Actually, there's a whole lot, but this stands out the most:
Aug 5th was "the sign" and a prelude of what's to come. Japan was "the spark" to the global credit event. The risk is CREDIT. The MAIN EVENT is the CREDIT EVENT.
A little research reveals where we are in the grand scheme of things...This week anything could happen, but I think we're getting close.
Timing? - Perfect Storm scenario lining up: The current risk off mood lasts until end of month/into Sept when it collides with 3 other market developments: a tax deadline that sees corporates withdraw liquid assets from the banking system, year-end hedging demands, and US Bank reserves approaching a point of scarcity, as the Fed's quantitative tightening run its course. By itself each of these events are somewhat manageable. If they occur simultaneously, what do you think will happen? The end of this month going into next month could get a little dicey. Economist, Anna Wong discusses more in detail how Fear, Carry and Tax Could Trigger Credit Crunch.
The CEO's Form 4s continue to pile up. That's also not a good sign. Though his plan may be to buy back shares when the market bottoms, which I think would be wise.
Oh, and if there's War, then you know what happens to the markets. Let's hope it doesn't get that bad. Everyone should be following that subject right now.
Sell the rallies. Aug 5th was a sign of what's coming...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174916868
They "suckered" everyone back into the market very quickly, only to hit it again. This rally will be very short-lived. The Japan reverse carry trade was the spark to the global credit event. The Main Event cometh soon. The BOJ is trapped. The Fed us trapped.
Think there's no recession? Bond markets foretell a lot.
"James Lavish@jameslavish
When the 2yr UST spread to Fed Funds Effective Rate goes this negative, it is a strong sign that rate cuts are imminent (and so is a recession)."
Appears that way, at least for the moment.
U.S PPI +0.1% M/M, EXP. +0.2%
U.S. PPI CORE 0.0% M/M, EXP. +0.2%
U.S PPI 2.2% Y/Y, EXP. 2.3%
U.S. PPI CORE 2.4% Y/Y, EXP. 2.7%
Tomorrow's numbers will also likely be skewed to magically fit their narrative...
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174909884
Iran's overnight rhetoric has cooled, being viewed as wanting to negotiate now. Iran may realize that if they continue down it's path, both their oil refineries and nuclear capability will no longer exist. Many of their top commanders/officials are being taken out, almost daily. The wild card is Russia's involvement w/ Iran.
Home Depot Slashes Sales, Profit Outlook As Higher Rates "Pressure Demand":
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/home-depot-reduces-outlook-consumer-gloom-high-interest-rates-spur-deferral-mindset