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Boj raised rates today
The Yen Carry Trade Is Not Unwound and Should Concern Everyone
"...Knowing what’s left after the summer selloff is a challenge in part because no one is keeping track.
There’s no trading floor or regulator. No one publishes a league table. It’s a strategy, not a product, so it largely defies precise measurement.
“You don't have to report your carry trade to anyone.
There's no lodging authority. In fact, it might be just simmering beneath, nobody knows,” said Lawrence Loh, professor of strategy and policy, National University of Singapore...."
https://japantimes.co.jp/business/2024/10/02/markets/carry-trade-focus/
Japanese stocks will likely tumble on Monday after Shigeru Ishiba’s surprise victory in the ruling party’s leadership race raised expectations that interest rates will rise:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-29/japan-stocks-set-to-fall-on-rate-hike-fears-after-ishiba-s-win?utm_content=markets&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-markets&utm_medium=social
The BoJ now faces a dilemma: Do they protect the Yen with higher interest rates? Or protect the Japanese government bond market with lower rates.
They cannot do both.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yen-carry-trade
@DarioCpx
This is all that matters to the #FED right now despite the market pretends to ignore it, whatever they do tomorrow rest assured they won’t allow $DXY to fall further because if they lose control of the inflation narrative they lose control of the long end of the curve, banks losses will expand further and it will be game over for the US economy
Very little talk about the JPY these days, but this one continues taking out big levels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-jpy-charts-we-are-watching
BOJ's Tamura Calls for Raising Rates to at Least 1%
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-09-11/bojs-tamura-calls-for-raising-rates-to-at-least-1
The Japanese yen still poses ‘a very big risk’ to global markets. Here’s why:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-japanese-yen-still-poses-a-very-big-risk-to-global-markets-heres-why-f0e949b5?mod=bnbh
Dollar Global Margin Call In Progress:
https://www.financial-reality.com/post/dollar-global-margin-call-in-progress
‘Strap In’—Fed Suddenly Braced For A U.S. Dollar ‘Crisis’ That’s Predicted To Spark ‘Total Collapse’ And A ‘Critical’ Bitcoin Price ‘Tipping Point’
https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2024/09/02/strap-in-september-fed-us-dollar-crisis-predicted-to-spark-total-collapse-and-a-critical-bitcoin-price-tipping-point/
Powell summary:
Confirms Sept rate cut
Does not indicate whether 25bps or 50bps;
As such the August payrolls report will be critical
Mac10: "Last night, Ueda was hawkish saying more rate hikes are coming. And this morning Powell and the other Fed members were ultra dovish saying rate cuts are coming."
Perfect conditions for the biggest crash in history.
JDario: "A kind reminder to all those currently cheering at Jerome Burns words" 👇🏻
https://justdario.com/2024/08/if-the-fed-cuts-rates-the-damages-will-be-far-greater-than-the-benefits/
Mac10chart
BOJ’s Ueda Is Set to Face Intense Scrutiny After Market Chaos:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boj-ueda-set-face-intense-223054336.html
meanwhile Powell to give a likely dovish speech at Jackson Hole...
https://justdario.com/2024/08/if-the-fed-cuts-rates-the-damages-will-be-far-greater-than-the-benefits/
SHORT TERM: BOJ is between a rock and a hard place:
🚩If JPY > ~162 vs USD = Japan economy collapses
🚩If JPY < ~145 vs USD = JPY Carry Trades hours of cards collapses
LONG TERM: JPY > 300
Did the Yen Carry Trade trigger a "Minsky Moment"?
YEN RISES; MARKETS COLLAPSE
https://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2024/08/20/yen-rises-markets-collapse/
Let's update that wild Monday Carry Trade Debacle !
Just how has the Yen now been doing ?
2 weeks later ;
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=&symb=usdjpy&x=59&y=8&time=6&startdate=1%2F4%2F2020&enddate=12%2F30%2F2024&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=3&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=9
Why it's almost as though those events never happened !
That's interesting. also Nikkei 37,388 -674 (-1.77%)
China, US Team Up on Contact Group to Handle ‘Financial Stress’:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-us-team-contact-group-062337240.html
all the stars pointing towards a large broker being in trouble...
Wow look at that eh ?
I've noticed that you often post good info too.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=174930534
Thanks
I've seen your charts on Bitcoin too. While I have mixed feelings on bitcoin, I must say you have some of the best-looking charts on ihub. Very well-prepared. That takes skill. Much better than my charts.
For viewing purposes, I do like the 3-month UDSPY chart.