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if Buffett sells ~50M more shares he will go below the 10% ownership threshold of $BAC. At that point he will no longer be required to file promptly disclosures anymore.
In other words, once he goes below 10% he will be able to dump $BAC shares at a faster pace but we will only know the information with a big delay into the next 13-F filing!
Today's "Quad Witch" OpEx $4.5 trillion in options and derivatives and futures are set to mature according to Goldman, making it the largest September expiry of all time. The options expiry coincides with the rebalancing of benchmark indexes. The event has a reputation for causing sudden price moves as contracts disappear and traders roll over their existing positions or start new ones"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/futures-fall-fed-frenzy-fades-and-traders-brace-45-trillion-quad-witch-opex
The BoJ now faces a dilemma: Do they protect the Yen with higher interest rates? Or protect the Japanese government bond market with lower rates.
They cannot do both.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yen-carry-trade
The second part of that equation (FOMC + BOJ) should be revealed this evening. Then the chart has relevance. Historically, upon FOMC + BOJ policy collision, the USDJPY implodes shortly thereafter. That would reignite "forced" JPY carry trade unwinding.
Get OpEx out of the way this week, along w/ BOJ policy decision then watch what happens.
The market is in supernova mode ahead of the BOJ tonight. Market may or may not, churn for a few days. In any event, the market will fall off the cliff soon. The Fed really set things up in a big way this time. Get the popcorn out and watch the fireworks.
All my opinion of course.
Buy VIX Calls - Goldman Sees Rise In Risk Ahead
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/buy-vix-calls-goldman-sees-rise-risk-ahead
Algorithms running wild prior to trading session open...it's going to be interesting to watch derivatives bid meet real selling...
BOJ will cave to market and political pressure. It's their turn this evening...BOJ policy has been exact opposite of FED policy.
Mainstream media is onto Nvidia's round tripping cash finally... 6 months late.
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) February 16, 2024
They've been boosting their sales by providing liquidity to shell corporations, similar to vendor financing during the Dot-Com bubble.pic.twitter.com/AhmbNJvJU3 https://t.co/l4NefeNtc2
I think you're right. I'm not trading anything this week. Acquired some Oct puts on NVDA and META and that's it for now...
Next week is an important week to watch:
The FED announces its interest rate decision Wednesday.
Japan announces on Friday.
And $SMCI missed the grace period for its 10k - so keep an eye on that and $NVDA.
Reuters:
"Investors were also looking to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision next Friday, when it is expected to keep its short-term policy rate target steady at 0.25%.
BOJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday the central bank must raise rates to at least 1% as soon as the second half of the next fiscal year, but added that it would likely do so slowly and in several stages.
"The BOJ is perceived to be going in the different direction than the Fed - in 180-degree opposite direction," Velis said, adding that whether and when the BOJ raises rates remains an open question..."
http://Forex.com
"The Japanese Yen has rallied a staggering 13% against the US Dollar over the past three-months with USD/JPY plunging to a fresh yearly low on Friday.
The decline takes price into a major technical support zone and the focus is on possible inflection off this mark heading into next week’s highly anticipated Fed rate decision.
Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly & daily technical charts.."
"Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid prospects of super-sized reduction in U.S. interest rates next week, while palladium has gained over 15% so far this week...."
https://m.economictimes.com/markets/commodities/news/gold-rallies-to-record-high-on-us-rate-cut-optimism/amp_articleshow/113316956.cms
TLTW 14.8% dividend. Pays out on monthly basis. May be good alternative to park cash and collect monthly income...exposure to TLT.
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=TLTW&insttype=Fund
Very little talk about the JPY these days, but this one continues taking out big levels.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/3-jpy-charts-we-are-watching
But what about the $50B buyback? That ain't happening while dumping continues:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175017296
We've reached a point where neither BOJ or Fed can do anything, without making things worse. Truly a catch-22 situation.
Fun fact: The global derivatives market could exceed a quadrillion dollars in notional value—dwarfing global GDP ($1,000 T compared to 100 T global GDP). This staggering figure underscores the potential for catastrophic losses when the market unravels.
A $20 Trillion Carry, $195 Trillion Derivatives Exposure, Quadrillion Global Derivatives - As evidenced by these figures, no one knows where the bottom is. Nor can any technical data or chart determine the bottom. Next year we may find out where $NVDA's bottom is.
It's not just GS. They're all drinking the same kool aid. $NVDA may be the biggest loser in all this due to the exposure indicated above. NVDA can move the entire market...in either direction. This will all likely unravel this year, not later.
$SMCI, one of NVDA's business partners, that has the SEC's interest:
*SUPERMICRO FRAUD LAWSUIT*
- Overreported sales, underreported expenses
- Rehired execs from prior accounting scandal
- Exported to restricted areas despite U.S. sanctions
- Misled investors, resulting in significant losses
https://www.accesswire.com/916518/the-schall-law-firm-seeks-help-from-shareholders-in-a-lawsuit-against-super-micro-computer-inc-for-securities-law-violations