Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Sold my qid for 23.45 just now, lost 5% of my money total in this qid trade. That is including the 3% I lost on the first half that I covered at 23 a couple days ago.
Looks like a buy at the close today, if we dont rally. Very high minus tick, very high trin, both are buy signals. However, still possible we crash into close, but 1600 on spx is major support, but if broken, could drop hard and fast.
My gut is employment numbers tomorrow will spark a small rally, but not going to bet the farm on it.
I had orders to short a ton of sds at spx 1660, so of course did not get it. Almost breakeven in the other half of my short position, still holding for now.
When the spx has a minor buy,and it can not rally to the previous resistance, is very bearish.
I still know almost for sure that we rally up to new highs on qqq and close to the old high on spx before we get more than a 5% rally, except with the computers running the trading, we get get a flash crash anytime.
Tough times to be an investor, or worse, part of the working middle class.
For the record: I sold half my qid for a 3% loss of my total assets. Ouch.
1622 was not my downside target, I thought we would fall to between 1600 and 1615, but near the low of the day, I covered my short by selling the qid.
Will short more if we rally into wednesday morning, up to 1650 to 1665.
This is a top, for those who have written to me, but tops take longer to form than bottoms.
For the record, the overhead resistance this week is:
1662, 1675, and 1687. I would be amazed to see anything above 1662 this coming week, but would expect 1675 later this month.
Most of the time, we get a double top, so waiting to heavily short at spx 1680 or so makes good sense for a longer term trade. Am seeing enough oversold on short term basis to set up a quick 2 day rally, would short it if that happens this week.
Most likely, we run back up to 1650 early this week, and then sink to 1600. Would not bet the farm on that, but is what I see. Gld is starting to look like a decent buy, but would wait for 130 to buy. IS probably your best bet on an investment into Oct.
We have probably made the top in the spx before we get a 5% correction (to 1600), but is possible we get another new high in QQQ before the 5% correction, and after the 5% correction, then another run to a new high in qqq but not spx is likely, before a 10% or more correction into the fall.
Market oftern tops or bottoms in late may, we made the first top then this year. Sideways into the end of august looks right to me, as in is a range bound market until then, and we see the big decline starting in Sept.
The above is the norm for stocks most years, and so is suspect. However, the norm is a good pattern to trade. For now, I am shorting over spx 1650, covering under 1630, and even buying around 1600. I will expand those numbers up and down as price action warrants.
For the record, as of the close friday, I have lost 10% of my money this year, mostly on paper with my GLD investment and my current holdings of qid. This is the worst first 5 months I have ever had in 26 years of investing, so not feeling very smart right now!
You are so right, when the fed ends the QE, then the market collapses.
BTW, in normal times, the market follows LEI and the CFNAI, but this is not normal times, as both economic indicators say big trouble ahead in the fall.
I have a book about the history of JP Morgan. And the chapter starting in 1981 is titled :The casino years. When they deregulated banking, starting in 1981, we have had a S&L crises, and almost a world wide banking collapse in 2008. Who needs govt regulations? Yes, they can be horrible at times, stupid and wasteful most of the time, but they prevent total theft some of the time.
Patter still suggests down into early next week, then another insane rally, how high depending on how this small correction progresses.
Thanks for the compliment. If only I was as good a stock trader!
I took care of foster animals for 20 years, and did 8 years of volunteer work helping children at risk through animal therapy. It actually works with children with many disabilities.
Am still short but only into next week, or maybe will close tomorrow.
The gap back on May 3, between 1598 and 1617, will be filled before this small correction is over is my best guess.
so 1595 to 1620 is my target for the move, and if 1620 holds, then a new high is likely. If we drop to 1595, them the next rally will fail, although a new high in qqq without one in spx confirms the top is in.
BTW, in april 1987 the spx had a formation like this, after a massive straight up move from Sept 86, and that correction lasted into mid may, followed by another big more up. anything is possible, nothing is certian.
Mine is 25 years younger than me, gorgeous (check out my blog, last one on the page on my website, Heartfeltanimals.com and see her pic
I have had 16 serious relationships that lasted more than a year, and she is the first who has no anger, treats me gently and with respect, and has a lot more money than me!
Hmmmmm, gorgeous, younger, full of lovingkindness, and rich. Why me? She loves poetry, and am the best at what a women really wants she ever had in her life. Practice makes perfect.
Love is an unconditinal commitment to an imperfect person. It is not a strong feeling. Love is a decision, a judgement, and a promise.
I love her.
BTW, down into early next week is my trading plan, but will close short on first solid buy signal. None yesterday or today.
QE is a gamble. I hate it, but under political constraints is the only option. The problem is the rich stole all the money, in legal ways, and now 35% of us are poor (govt stat, that many are in poverty or close to that level).
Crony capitism is killing my country.
BTW, got out of being heavily margin short at the open, with an order last night. Am still pretty heavily short, but staying on margin short this market was stupid, even if I made some money on the margin part.
I am the luckiest man on this board, as my GF is moving in with me, and she is worth more than all the money in the world to me.
Hard to say what comes next, but I would prefer to be short for now.
BTW, QE can prevent a depression, but it will not help the real economy very much, and some politicians, want the economy to do terrible for their benefit, and so they will block the only chance we really have, more govt spending, to get the economy back.
All the fed is doing is putting more and more money into rich peoples hands, at the expense of the middle class later. It is helping prevent deflation for now.
AS of the high yesterday, the spx was up 26% without a 5% correction. IN the past 25 years, only 3 rallies with a bigger percentage gain: Dec 94 to dec 95, april 97 to august 97, and oct 98 to dec 98.
comp rally is the one in 97, which was followed by five drops between 5% and 11%, including the infamous drop of over 500 pts on the dow, which in todays level would be 900 pts down, in oct 97
If this decline is the same as the other three 3% drops in the past 6 months, then it will take 5 or 6 days to find a bottom.
The last 2 times, the market fell hard for 2 days, and then rallied a couple days, and then fell. The first time, it rallied back the second day, and then fell 5 days.
bottom line: I think we will only fall 3% and then rally to new highs before the final top. 1613 is my target, more or less, for this drop. Also possible we fall to 1585 and have a 5% correction finally.
What goes up, must come down, and it never fails when the spx is over the trend line for 2 days, like we just had, for it to fall. What is wierd, is we had 3 high closing ticks days in 5 days, and today is all we got so far for a drop? My gut says eventually the signal will work, just taking its time.
First support for the spx at 1636, then 1613.
The first top is in,having said that so many times hardly believe it at all, but this top could take weeks or even months to finally end with a major correction of over 10%.
I will cover my short in qqq at spx 1636, and get off being margin short. Holding the qid for a bigger drop.
The RSI on spx is at high levels seen before serious corrections in the past 3 years. However, it also means todays high will be surpassed later this year, before a bear begins.
We are now overextended big time for 2 days in a row, which is a sell signal.
I shorted the qqq, now am almost fully margin short, but will take off the margined part on first big down day.
I still see spx 1600, then another run to 1650 before a signicicant correction.
Why bother to improve the economy, when you can do it with numbers instead?
My uncle still sees a nasty recession later this year.
Although we are in the 4th longest rally without a 5% correction since 1987 (or before that, as dont have charts for before 87), we only had 2 5% or greater correction in 2005 and only one in 2006, and we only had 2 in 2012.
I cant believe we keep going up like this, which means I am soon to be right, or am somehow not seeing how it is different this time.
My hat is off to the bulls, smart predictions.
Thanks for the updated charts. Am currently writing 4 books and a based on kittens saved my life. Will add in my love life, as did not include that in the book you have as it was not appropriate to a book on animal rescue, but if it is going to be a movie,....
I hate the stock market, love to write. Spending a lot of my time and energy with the love of my life, who is not a kitten!
Again, thanks for your monthly charts, they really help. I cant believe this market keeps going up.
Checked previous times the market was this overbought and every time, there was a small drop back to the 21dma, then one more rally to new highs before a serious correction.
I expect the same, and will cover my short at spx 1600 or so, and maybe even buy if all fits for another run to new highs before this insanity ends.
Of course, could still lose my shirt, so being careful.
Of course, was out playing yesterday, and just now see we had a closing tick of +1150. Last time we had a high closing tick, had a 3% correction. Expect the same this time, into next week.
My breakeven is about 3% lower than the high of today, so could not lose money on this foolish short of mine.
This is now the 4th longest rally in terms of days in the past 20 years, and although I dont have the numbers, I think it is the 4th longest in the past 25 years, but dont have the numbers on a computer before 1992, but I have been investing since 1987 and dont remember rallies without a 5% correction being that long from 87 to 92.
And the others started after major corrections, or the longest, from dec 1994 to dec 1995, which started after a 10 month long correction of 9%
This makes no sense and we are somehow being held up by fed printing presses.
"The more I know,
the less I understand;
all these things i thought I knew,
I'm learning again"
Don Henley
ONe thing to remember here:
IN past 20 years, yes 20 years, there have only been 6 rallies with more percentage gain than this one without a 5% correction, and they all started after nasty corrections that lasted months or years, and were either of long durations (like the biggest rally of them all, from dec 8 1994 to dec 15 1995, during which I lost half my money shorting, could I be repeating that now?)or after big drops, like in march 2009.
Bottom line: A 5% correction is long overdue, and is possible the economy is not going to tank thanks to all the easy money, which is possible but not likely. As in a bigger correction this summer into fall is still likely, but am tired of trying to pick a top.
Hate to be long this market, but probabley even stupider to be shorting until this trend is truly broken.
When price does not respond to news as expected, and the pattern is not clear, best to not trade is my rule.
And yet, I am almost fully short with the qid. dumb and dumber.
IN many ways, the pattern is easily a top, but there are also examples were we can go another 3% higher first, before another 3% correction.
Not enough exuberance to call a top, but still.....
Bottom line: I can't do this and have a life, so am not watching in the day for now. I do see a small pullback this week, maybe 1 to 2% at most, and then higher prices for now. NOt sure if it is all about helecopter ben propping up prices, or the market sees something I dont.
Dont let trading ruin your happiness.
The bullish percentage for the nasdaq actually went down yesterday. It is in solid sell mode, and I mean solid sell.
The market often reverses its move from what it did when the fed anounces, like this week, or from a move on jobs friday, like it did last month.
Just saying, I feel better being short over the weekend than being long. HOwever, I dont see much more of a drop than down to 1588, but it could get a lot worse than that.
Of course, am going to be bankrupt is we run straight to 1700 next week!
Ha Ha. Laughing, as this pain cant go on much longer. will probably get out with first small buy signal on a down day, and there will be down days next week, that is for sure.
I almost lost everything in 1995, shorting over and over. Was almost out of the game, when the market fell hard for 2 days in July, and i got out. Funny, the (&(*% market stopped trading for 30 minutes, just when i wanted out, and when it resumed I was screwed out of another 5k, as prices had jumped back up.
No more shorting this year. Or, until the 21dma turns down, we have a small correction, and then rally back to near the previous high, a solid sell.
Reality is not important, all that matters is the fed is printing money, until it isnt more important than economic reality.
BTW, we jumped up to upper band again, could ride it higher next week, but a drop back to 1600 or a lot lower is coming next week.
1, the rally from august 2010 of 29% was the biggest rally in percentage terms without a 5% correction since 1992.
2. Current rally is the 4th longest, and in terms of percentage gain, the 7th biggest in the past 20 years.
Can we go higher, yes! But since this rally began off a small drop, not a major correction, I think it is way past reasonable. bTW, economic news not all good, but market only sees the positive.
I am hurting, worst trade since 1995 for me, still holding short, added to position with more qid today.
Hey, we all make mistakes, just been on a roll of bad trades this year, shorting when I kept thinking buy and hold would work.
We are in an unprecedented rally, when the economy is obviously doing poorly, and govt cuts will hurt a lot more later this year.
I only mention govt spending creates jobs, as it is true. As is tax cuts to the rich hurt the economy, and tax cuts to the poor helps. Even the tea party people know it is true, but they have an agenda.
In the end, is not what I think, but what the markets do that counts. And for now, although a lot of warning signals, every sell signal has failed, and that is bullish.
WE are getting signs of a blow off top, not sure if it can go up another week, but why not?
uvxy is a difficult investment, not willing to trade it myself. sds and qid are not great, but better as no time decay.
My uncle, who has written over 30 books on economics, says only govt spending can help the economy now, monetary policy will not do much. And as you pointed out, the world central banks are printing money, while govts cut spending. Dumb.
It is may, so a top should come soon.
Eventually the house of cards falls apart. Monetary policy is winning the war of bulls and bears for now.
Amwaiting for the next 3% correction to sell my qid, until then best to not watch, as will not short more, but will not sell my shorts. Last time I did that, the market fell hard and fast for 2 days.
I cant do this anymore, should just live in a cardboard box and not worry.
Tough day.
I am confounded, this pattern is impossible!
You cant stop a runaway train. The fiscal policy is winning over economic realities.
However, as long as car sales are good, then we are not going over the cliff. they are still strong, housing is strong, thanks to low interest rates.
Am losing my shirt this time. I keep getting worse and worse, instead of better trades as the rally continues.
Deep breaths, 1620 here we come.
support for spx:
1584.5 = the low so far this week.
1572 - 21 and 13dma
1555 - trend line and 50dma. This is the important support, we break it and we fall 5 to 7% this week.
Just what I see, would not listen to anything I have to say as have been trading horribly this year so far. OUCH
No panic selling yet. Trin not super high, no big negative ticks, vix not shooting up fast. If we did have signs of that, maybe would not keep going. But this is as good a short set up that you can hope for. again, would not bet the farm, but I am pretty heavily short myself.
GS and commodities down big today, very bearish for the market. In the short run, anything is possible, but over the next couple weeks I am pretty sure we are headed down.