Most likely, we run back up to 1650 early this week, and then sink to 1600. Would not bet the farm on that, but is what I see. Gld is starting to look like a decent buy, but would wait for 130 to buy. IS probably your best bet on an investment into Oct.
We have probably made the top in the spx before we get a 5% correction (to 1600), but is possible we get another new high in QQQ before the 5% correction, and after the 5% correction, then another run to a new high in qqq but not spx is likely, before a 10% or more correction into the fall.
Market oftern tops or bottoms in late may, we made the first top then this year. Sideways into the end of august looks right to me, as in is a range bound market until then, and we see the big decline starting in Sept.
The above is the norm for stocks most years, and so is suspect. However, the norm is a good pattern to trade. For now, I am shorting over spx 1650, covering under 1630, and even buying around 1600. I will expand those numbers up and down as price action warrants.
For the record, as of the close friday, I have lost 10% of my money this year, mostly on paper with my GLD investment and my current holdings of qid. This is the worst first 5 months I have ever had in 26 years of investing, so not feeling very smart right now!
