One more post, with the hope for no more slanderous posts.

We are as overbought as back on Sept 2, just before an 11% correction.

Difference is the sentiment is a lot more extremely bullish now, which is dangerous for the markets.

This is my last post if i read anymore slander towards anyone.

Market very overbought, but that can continue for weeks sometimes.

AAII finally showing massive bullishness, which is not good for the market, but like the above, can continue for weeks.

Bottom line: Really bad news about the virus not hurting securities, probably the fed is pumping massive amounts of liquidity into markets to prop asset values up.

If people dont stop with attacks and slanders of various politicians, i will quit this board.

If you want to say an informed opinion about someone, like Trump was very good for the Banks, between cutting their taxes in half and cutting regulations, that is fine. To say he was a gangster for giving the banksters infinately more power to destroy our society, even if you firmly believe it to be true, is not what I am on this board for.

Civility is the only way we can get through this mess together. The new president is calling for all of us to work together, and no matter how much I dislike him, he is right about that.

Anyone who actually thinks I know anything more than they do is mistaken. I just like to pontificate and bring some of my experience of following markets since the summer of 1986 as a counter to those who may not remember the bear of 1990, etc and forget when to panic, and when to buy.

I think the time to panic is near, but more important, the time to buy quickly follows. Owning some covid economy stocks, and being short the spy is my plan for now.

Half the population will not be going where there are large crowds for a long time, or where they are in contact with others in close spaces. The other half will not care.

I am very cautious in some ways, not worried in others. I have a 6 year old son, so not allowing him to see any of his friends and be home 24/7 is not an option. I am 70, so I have to be very careful in most ways, even if am healthier than most americans half my age.

Bottom line: Covid related stocks will keep doing well for a long time. Like in 2000, some hyped plays will crumble and fall, others like AMZN will grow and dominate.

Semis is where I like to put my money, building blocks for everything else.

Half the population will not be going where there are large crowds for a long time, or where they are in contact with others in close spaces. The other half will not care.

I am very cautious in some ways, not worried in others. I have a 6 year old son, so not allowing him to see any of his friends and be home 24/7 is not an option. I am 70, so I have to be very careful in most ways, even if am healthier than most americans half my age.

Bottom line: Covid related stocks will keep doing well for a long time. Like in 2000, some hyped plays will crumble and fall, others like AMZN will grow and dominate.

Semis is where I like to put my money, building blocks for everything else.

See my other post about this "miracle" vaccine.

Eventually, there will be a viable vaccine, but it may not be any better than the flu vaccine.

I assume business will be back to normal by next summer, but by normal, i mean people will forever be a lot more careful about getting sick, which could be a very good thing. I would not start a fine indoor dining restaurant for a long, long, long time.

Last, will this mean people who lead very unhealthy lives will see the light and change? If you believe that, I can sell you shares in the Golden Gate Bridge, for a reasonable price!

I should have gone fully margined short on the anouncement, but had a rough nite with a sick 6 year old, and by the time I got up, a lot of the gains were gone.

Will short on any further rally.

Here is some information that a friend who is an expert in the field told me about the vaccine:


The vaccine announcement came with few "facts" and little read data. Even taken at face value, this vaccine is promising but not ideal. The real data and the protocols remain closed and proprietary. We'll need to wait a while before we know whether this is "the one" or not. The Lancet article suggests even working vaccines are not worth much in terms of curbing the virus. The recently announced vaccine was done outside of government price controls and allocation agreements--a fact pointed out with glee at the announcement.

As to whether the drug company making the vaccine is a good candidate for speculation, I would be cautious. Certainly, in the short range, there will be activity. But the vaccine is impractical as it needs to be kept very cold and it needs multiple doses. Effective or not, 700,000,000 doses to be delivered will need a tremendous expensive infrastructure. I doubt if it will be possible to deliver it as needed. In the long run, one of the other vaccines will win and this one will disappear.

this vaccine is not going to be a cure all, market is way overbought on reflation idea,and tech is overextended too.

Staying in cash for now

Tech selloff overdone, sp500 rally overdone.

Big dip in economy for 4th quarter,first quarter next year, then it is up and away.

Bought a little nvda and docu, but mostly looking to short spy at close, or afterhours if it runs up into close, but probably best to short at open tuesday.

Market should be up big on vaccine news,but as always,it overreacts to news.

Oh well, all the stocks i sold friday are down today!

Market is for sure going to pull back from here, and eventually the market will realize the vacine will not help for another 6 months.

No stimulus bill for the poor and middle class, more fed pumping money into the hands of the rich, so what else is new?

20 is possible,am not saying buy now if you read my post.

I now think this rally has more legs,but am content to wait.

Market focused on vacine curing virus problem,and belief we dont need stimulus to keep growing strong.

Last,china tariffs could be repealed quickly, another big plus for market.

Am not shorting until we get very overbought, as we are most likely back in a bull market.

I sold all my stock after hours on friday, sorry did not post, except kept 5% of my money in a gold stock.

Corona virus getting worse for next couple months, will hurt economy here and in many countries big time.

GOP will not agree to any stimulus, maybe ever if they keep the senate after the next special election in GA, which I think they will.

No stimulus (as in no unemployment benefits for most people after Jan 1, and no extra $600 or even $300 a month) and the economy tanks, no matter what the fed does.

I will keep buying on major selling climax days, made a lot of money in march doing that this year. Will short if we somehow rally next week above 3530

I would say you can buy t at 20 and then hold it forever.

I owned it various times for the dividend in the last 30 years, but not for a long time. Did own VZ for most of the obama admin

My plan for next week is to short at spx 3550, go long at 3400. With the machines running everything,they both could happen on Monday!

more volatile the better for trading short term moves.

I do believe we will be a lot higher by next summer,so am leaning bullish,but cautious short term (especially the next 2 months)

I was not able to have the courage to hold my long position over the weekend.

Chances of "good" news is slight, bad news is very likely soon.

I can see how the gop will use the improving economy to not pass a stimulus bill, maybe even when the economy falls into ruin soon, so that is a big negative the market is not counting on yet.

Bottom line: Even if we rally a bit more, a pullback to the gap open monday should be filled this month, IMHO. If that happens, will jump back in on any selling climax day.

Weekly LEI growing strongly, says economic activity 6 months from now will be much stronger than expected.

Election uncertainty is over, but as trump tries to steal the election in the next 2 months, expect big down days along the way, but the market will keep going up into next spring, IMHO.

Funny, gop got supreme court to stop recounting votes so bush could win, this time they want to recount and throw out votes to win. They only believe in winning at all costs as their faith.

All indicators are solid buy signals.

I covered my spy short near open for 2% loss,ouch.

Bought more amd at 82, am now long 70%. I like agi, adi, amd, nvda, docu, and twlo. I have long positions in all of them.

I will keep buying every time there is a dip, until we get very overbought,which could be by the end of the week.

Market focused on fed keeping rates below inflation, near zero, and more stimulus bills from congress and the president (who like trump can send money out if he chooses)

Covered my short for a 2% loss near the open, dumb.

Market is not worried about recession in Dec-jan, all they see is fed never stopping pumping money and a stimul bill soon, even it it is much smaller than it could have been if dems took senate.

NO tax increases and no new regulations. Probably no action against goog-amzn-fb either. VEry good for stocks.

But no stimulus and economy crashes. Plus trump is going to lose and will create chaos,which is his way,again not being critical,just stating a fact. He is very good at rousing up people, look at how he almost won this time!

Market will not like chaos

Am not sure when the decline starts, but when the market realizes no stimulus bill at all, or only the skinny one the gop senate wanted,tht will not be good for stocks, IMHO

Way to go! Biden presidency with gop senate is the markets dream result, but they are not counting no stimulus bill which will tank the economy

With the gop running the senate and biden president, no stimulus will be passed, and then the economy goes into a depression.

NOt taking sides, but looks like Biden will narrowly win with 270 electoral votes and chaos will reign as Trump refuses to concede.

3200 for sure this month, maybe lower on spx. Current over 3400

This election news will get ugly soon, IMHO, so i shorted 100% of my money in spy at 142,and am still long 60% in high tech:nvda, amd,twlo,and docu

My system is saying be long for a long time. I would not be surprised to see the market very volatile tomorrow, if no winner announced tonight, but after that looks like new highs by January for all the averages.

3370 is the line in the sand,either we sell off hard from here,or rally big time. Tune in next time for the thrilling answer!

Sold my nvda at 517, will buy it back on pullback.

Market is too happy, expect a pullback later today or afterhours to at least where it opened, or even below the close yesterday.

Market not worried about a close election result.

Nonsense, Trump and his son assure us the pandemic is over, and the deaths were not important! Nobody has anything to worry about Covid 19, as it is all fake news.

I bought twlo at 270 just now, and also amd at 74. I keep buying and selling nvda, still have 20% of my investments in it.

I also own adi,agi,and land for the safety investment that will keep paying me 10% or more a year for awhile.

Am up to 70% invested

I agree, both candidates are disasters. Biden let Thomas get on the supreme court,which is my pick for the worst political event in the 20th century.Trump calls service people who died for their country "Losers and chumps", how anyone could vote for him is beyond me.

Lets all hope the election gives a clear winner,or we will have chaos after, and the market will not like that!

Busy day, went 95% long near the close yesterday, but did not like what I saw today, so sold half of that, now just 50% long.

AGI was a lucky pick for my gold stock, not about knowing what they were going to earn, just liked the chart.

Bottom line: A big gap down tomorrow should be bought, IMHO.

Vix says buy short term, so my gut says worry about the election is happening early, and unless it is very close, the market will keep rallying into early next year.

BTW, end of march, early april has provided many sell signals in the past. Also, end of january and end of dec in 2018, end of feb this year, but normally, market likes to rally into end of march/early april.

320 will for sure in short term, but that is out the window if elecion is super close and contested.

I was wrong,not the first time that has happened.

I did say monday action said bottom by wednesday,I expect a pretty good rally into friday close, then more downside next week,but only until tuesday if election has a clear winner.

Been looking at the numbers, and as i said on monday, a bottom tomorrow makes good short term sense. If we break below 3210 in the next couple weeks, then another bear is upon us. I expect 3300 to hold tomorrow, and would be an excelent place to go long if we fall that far.

If the polls continue to show a blow out win for Dems, the market will keep rallying big time. If the polls, or the election itself, does not bring a clear victory to Biden and and the dems take the senate, then the market will tank big time, as the GOP will block any effort to have more stimulus.

Just my opinion, what do I know?

A 10% correction in the summer or even spring of 2021 is likely, but not before that, IMHO, unless the election is really close and then chaos ensues.

I put 20% of my money into amd at 78,and 20% into nvda at 529, still have 10% of my money in agi, which is finally in the black for me today, having bought it a couple weeks ago. Also put 10% into adi at 121. I like semis.

Market still may go down into election,and if contested election,then look out below. Market loves huge stimulus from dems if they win,and the tax increase will not hurt the market other than maybe short term, as it only is on the super rich,and they can easily afford it.

Remember, $1 of money to the poor produces$1.60 in economic activity,and $1 to the rich only $.60, so tax cuts to the rich by GOP hurt the economy. Economic growth in 2013 to 2016 was higher than in 2017 to 2019. Fact, not the BS the admin says.

Options and vix say buy by wednesday for a big two day rally.

covid will get alot worse, but markets will ignore it, am waiting until tommorow to buy