is ... YES - Another Profitable Day!
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Yes, I said that. At that time, given the market conditions, I felt it was reasonable that the market would correct itself in a week or two and perhaps would turn around by the full moon. Well, that did not happen. A diamond formation came into play and so today, The market is still making a correction. You can never know for certain what the market will do a week or two from now but, I like to speculate. Today, what I have to draw on are these:
1. a divergent sell signal,
2. a key reversal day
3. the diamond formation
4. a breakout of the diamond to the down side
5. a 4 day rally attempt with diminishing volume that appears to have failed.
All of that points to lower prices still to come. I want to buy at the best price I can get, if it still looks like a good company to buy when the market finds firm support.
So to clarify what I said, in my opinion, I felt that this week would be a good time to buy, however, today I see no buy signals yet so, I'm still waiting. The market will usually tell you when to buy or sell. You just need to learn how to read the market.
Many of you appear to be making trading decisions based upon your emotions and what you want to see happen to a stock with very little regard for what is actually happening. I'm trying to get you to take a deep breath, stand back and look at the charts which are providing a clear indication of where the price is actually going to go. I sincerely hope that some of you will get out of your current state of denial and look objectively at your position and make some intelligent what if scenarios from which you can choose the best course of action for your situation. When I first came here it was because I was hearing great things about TYTN and I wanted to see about taking a position in this market. On the day I showed up, it was very obvious to me that a Key Reversal day was in the making. So, I took the time to point that out in case some of you had not noticed it. Now, I continue to watch this market because I agree with many of you that the prospects for this company look good but, what does not look good to me is the current high price of the stock and all the technical indicators screaming sell. So, I'm patiently waiting for what I believe is the optimal time to buy. You can choose to believe that or you can conjure up your own theory as to why I'm here.
It's interesting to me to see many of you making mistakes that I used to make before I made the decision to learn how to trade better. Contrary to popular belief, you don't just buy a stock that sounds good and then wake up one morning with a lot of money in your trading account. I once thought like that and EVERY single time that ever happened to me, if I did nothing and did not immediately and objectively study the technical indicators to determine if my position still made sense to hold on to, eventually I sat and watched that profit disappear. It made me mad that I didn't know what to do in the beginning so I learned what to do. Then it made me mad that I knew what to do and was not doing it. Today, I never get mad! I just take a position and then I watch that position and the market always tells me with a key reversal day or a double top or a rising wedge, or a diamond formation, or a head and shoulders formation or a divergent sell signal that it's time to take profits. So, I take profits and now I know how great that feels! I'm telling you that you do not have to ever worry about you position in a stock if you will only take the time to learn what to do given the current market situation. So, ask yourself this question. Am I now trading stocks as successfully as I want to be trading? If your answer is yes, then you don't need to read my posts or anyone else's posts, you already know what to do and you are doing it. If your answer is no, then I'm wondering how long it's going to be before you take steps to learn every thing you can about how to trade stocks successfully. IF you are already doing that, that's great! If not, why not? So, there's my motivation. A lot of people helped me learn to trade better once I made up my mind to lean. Perhaps I need to give back now to those who are coming along after me making the very same mistakes I used to make. There is a Buddhist saying that when a student is ready a teacher will appear. So, your job is really to prepare yourself first and your opportunity shall come. That's the way the world works.
Unfortunately the bears woke up and beat the price back at the close. The momentum is out of this rally attempt now (volume is tapering off) and it's finally going to test support at $0.0025 and perhaps $0.0019 and maybe lower.
I would be looking a whole lot better if the volume was not tapering off on this rally attempt. There is a saying in technical analysis that says:
Price up, Volume up = Bullish (except during a market top)
Price down, volume up = Bearish (except at a market bottom)
Price up, volume down = Bearish (exactly what this rally shows)
Price down, volume down = Bullish (trend losing momentum)
Volume up sharply, indicates a change in direction
Volume down sharply indicates indecision
Volume up gradually indicates the trend will continue
Volume down gradually indicates a drop in market momentum and the possibility of a reversal
I think this is called the CALM Before the STORM (or perhaps rally). I bought some more today because I'm losing faith that the price will go lower now. I was hoping to see $0.008 again. Don't think so now. If it drops down and stays there a while, I'll probably just buy more. My average cost is so low now that it will not take much of a bounce for me to easily take my original investment back plus a profit and have many shares left to let ride or trade with.
No! I confess, I am an Internet robot that was planted here in this chat room to confuse the issue. (just kidding)
I can't wait to see the reaction to this post! It's bound to be hilarious, ludicrous, and amazing!
End of Transmission.
I've seen news articles appear that would throw a monkey wrench into my analysis for a day or two but, in the long run the analysis, unless the chart itself changes drastically (which can happen) is not affected by the news because, the markets move based upon how traders collectively interpret the news. Technical analysis is based upon how the markets are moving. So, the way the news was interpreted is actually reflected in the market indicators and chart patterns. I will read some of the news. In general I want to know what a company is doing. But, unless they have firm fundamentals such as sales and earnings which has a direct affect on the price of a stock, how the news is received and interpreted is mostly conjecture. I want reality. The reality comes in what happens to the price following the news. Technical analysis can point that out very clearly. So, I look for the reality of how the news was received in how the price moves and what the indicators and chart patters are telling me.
No, I do not mark up the charts I use. The markets are too dynamic for that. I want to be able to look at my charts every day with a fresh outlook. Do a search for "S&P 500 and the moon or lunar cycles and you will find a lot of links to articles and research on the subject.
I do not put notes on my charts. I believe that's a bad idea. Why? because the market's are dynamic. They change from day to day. For instance, on the TYTN chart, I pointed out a key reversal and a divergent sell signal. A week or so later, a diamond formation appeared on the chart. WEll, that's changes things because the sell signal and the key reversal are signs that the market will go lower. But, a diamond formation is deceptive and the market can actually break out of a diamond up down or sideways. So, I pointed that out. Next the price broke lower out of the diamond indicating that the direction of the price will be down. So today we have a sell signal, a key reversal, a diamond formation with the price breaking lower and all of these things point to the price correcting lower here. I have yet to see anything in the way of technical analysis that says the price is going higher.
Most of you who post here appear to be fundamentalists who have little or mo knowledge of technical analysis. So, I'm just providing my opinion of what I believe will happen and why I believe that. Over time, perhaps you will begin to notice that some of my ideas are actually worth paying attention to for even though I don't pay close attention to all the news. I do pay close attention to the things that work for not only me but many of the greatest traders who have ever lived. How do I know that? Because I learned what I know by reading their books and attending the seminars of those who are still alive today. Then, I took what I learned and actually tried it out in actual trading with real money to see what worked for me. So, when I tell you that in my opinion, the market is going lower now, I believe it because of past experience with a similar looking chart. Believe it or not, the chart patterns and price movement reflect the actual sentiment of the people trading the markets. When you begin to understand technical analysis, you will know what I mean. Until then, with a view of only fundamentals which exists primarily in news when trading the pink sheets, you can't possibly know anything except what the company wants you to know. That's my opinion because I used to trade like many of you appear to be trading and I know from experience, that without technical analysis and only the fundamental propaganda and other people's opinions to guide you, you are trading with blinders on. For instance, a little over a week ago, I warned the folks trading SHAR about a Rising Wedge formation which is generally an indication that prices may fall sharply. They had about a week to take profits (but, I don't think many of them did) and then suddenly on Monday, the market collapsed and fell about 2/3rds lower in price. Can that happen here? Not as likely but, you won't ever see anything indicating that kind of market behavior in the news. Long answer but, I don't mark up my charts. So, I have nothing to show you and if I did, it might all change in the next week anyway. So, when something changes, I'll let you know. In the mean time you can keep on criticizing me for sharing my opinion until you finally begin to see the light!
Maybe you missed the post. The lunar cycle when you plot it on a stock chart (both the new and full moon occurrences) you will see that they usually occur within a few days of a change in market direction. Not always, but, usually. Of course a lot of people here take what I say a little to literally and I doubt if some of them even read my entire post before they begin responding to it so there is a lot of misinformation regarding what I actually said and even when they get that right, they generally misinterpret what I said.
Anyway, I watch the lunar cycles and often anticipate a buy or sell signal around the week of a new or full moon. It you plot the new and full moons on a major market index like the S&P 500 for instance, it's really amazing how often the FULL and NEW moons appear to call market turns. I believe that happens because during the period of the new or full moon, people emotions can often get the best of them. It's just one of the things I watch that help me determine what I believe is happening in the markets.
IF you want to learn more about the moon and the markets here are a few links you might find interesting:
http://blogs.hbr.org/hbr/hbreditors/2009/06/new_moon_on_monday_market_lun.html
http://stockchartist.blogspot.com/2011/03/moon-makes-fast-money.html
http://www.futureanalyzer.com/Articles/Do%20moon%20phases%20influence%20financial%20markets.pdf
Interesting! I said the market would go down because of a key reversal day and the market has gone down since then and you do not find that credible. Obviously I see things a lot differently than you do.
Trend Line Holds Firm. Four days in a row now that a rally attempt has closed below the trend line. Even thought the price poked through the trend for a while today, it failed to close above it. Believe it or not guys, that is not a good sign. IF this stock was going to rally here it would hae done so by now. So, it looks like up to three levels of support below .0030 could be tested here now.
Come on Bears! Sell me some stock at these great low prices! I dare you!
IF you have any real evidence of anything you are are saying, you should just post it. Show us the evidence. If, you don't have evidence, then what you say is going to interpreted as the Fiction side of your conversation. If you have already done your DD, then show us what you've found out. When you can't do that, you can't blame people for assuming it's just one of your fiction statements, you know? Personally, I don't care what the rumors are. I believe there are ships sunk in the ocean with treasure on them, I believe that ORRV has the technology to be able to find those ships. I believe that sometime in the next five years, they will have recovered some valuable cargo. I believe that in spite of the huge number of shares outstanding if when they do announce the successful recovery of valuable cargo, we will get a nice bounce in the price (at the very least), I will then get back my original investment with a profit and have shares left over that will constitute a FREE trade. From that point on, it can go up, and I'll be very happy or it can go down and it won't matter to me at all. My point is, if you trade this one intelligently, you just can't lose.
I'll take that cheaper price! Right on, right now, the order is in!
You missed a "." - $0.006
Very quiet opening. A lot of uncertainty out there I think.
We've had two days now without a follow through rally and I'm getting a little worried about this chart. The previous buy signal is not in danger of being canceled out by a divergent sell signal that would not have appeared here had we seen a follow through rally in the last two days. While it is not a confirmed signal, I did what I consider to be the smart thing and I sold my position yesterday at about where I bought it at. I think it is very possible now to see a drop in price back to the 200 day MA around $0.006 which is a significant drop and worth the wait for a better buy in price. That might not happen, but, it seems to me that it will now. If we do not see that follow though rally today, that we should see a drop in price to retest the support at the 200 day MA.
We've seen three rally attempts in three days and all of them fell short of the downtrend line now coming off the top right side of the diamond formation. In my opinion, TYTN is going to miss this moon rally and in fact, it looks to me like this moon cycle will prove to be a down cycle rather than up. The only chart formations and technical indicator signals are still in favor of the bears and the support at the 200 day MA remains untested. From my perspective and in my opinion, this market is still headed lower here. A price drop to the $0.0016 level seem to me a more realistic possibility now than when I first mentioned it.
I never sell anything short! Too risky! I'm a swing trader and a very successful one. So, why change what works? But, I'm considering the possibility of selling the next market I'm certain of. But, I probably won't. I will take profits though, if I'm long.
You are right, but, you are missing the point! The chart was reflecting what was about to happen. The chart can never tell you the reason why it is happening only that it is happening. Usually it tries to tell you well in advance so that you can act on those signals and profit from them. The next time you see a rising wedge, that market will collapse too but, likely for a different reason. Technical Analysis and chart patters are only a tool. You can either learn to use it or not, it's up to you. I am a far better trader today because I pay attention to them.
$0.02 might not be the bottom, I never said it definitely was, I believe I said likely. The reality is that the market will turn around when enough bulls believe the price is so cheap that they can't lose on it. It also depends on the short sellers deciding to take profits. The best thing to do now, is wait for another market signal of what is going on. Or, you could just act on your hunch that this support at $0.02 (or lower) is the best place to buy. I would rather wait now and look for firm support and a clear buy signal.
I was right last week. Last week, I said it was a good time to take profits. This week, you know why. It might have been next week instead of this week. When you see signs in chart patterns like a rising wedge, the market is already moving. It's only when you finally run out of people willing to buy into an over bought market that it finally collapses. Last week a lot of people were still caught up in bull fever and were ignoring the hand writing on the wall (a rising wedge) but, for those how knew and understood what it means, they were taking profits and some were selling short but, most of the short selling probably took place after the market broke out of the wedge.
I did. No one believed me.
The point is you did have plenty of time to act based on my opinion and suggestions. It's hard to call how fast a market is going to move. When you begin the recognize the patterns and see what the technical indicators are telling you, it's already happening so, you need to act quickly. I did give you time, you just thought I didn't know anything and never tried to understand my point of view. Why would another trader who did not even own any shares try to tell you his opinion of what was going to happen based on his experience? Why? Because, I'm a trader, just like you and I completely understand how blind a fundamentalist is when they do not understand technical analysis. I used to be one. But, you can't argue fundamentals with someone who thinks they know them. On the technical side, there is no argument. Unless of course, you do not understand it completely. IT would be a good idea for you to learn about chart patterns to start out with. That alone would have made you a lot of money here.
The wedge, had you paid attention to it was a warning of what was going on in the market. Technical Analysis can become an early warning system for you when you know what to look for. The wedge did not cause the market to collapse but, the prior price action that formed the wedge was the evidence that profit taking and shorting was going on here. I tried to warn you guys. Technical analysis will always reflect what the market is about to do. Why try to figure out what the fundamentals really mean whey you can just watch the movement of the market and know when to buy or sell successfully?
The chart does not determine the direction of the price, it only forecasts it and if you do not eventually learn that, you will fall victim to this kind of play over and over again. If I asked you a week ago about the fundamentals, you would have told me how great they were. The wedge was in place a week ago contradicting that. Technical analysis is the only way to know when to buy or sell a stock for optimum profits. All I'm saying is it would be a really good idea if you read John Murphy's Book are Technical Analysis because it can help you be a better, more successful investor.
The rising wedge is an indication that will happen. If you don't learn that here from this experience, they you are going to fall victim to it over and over again until you do.
Good chance the market will recover eventually but, I hope you did take profits here because that's a huge drop in price now and it's likely going to be even cheaper now before it's done falling.
Yes, the fundamental are always the true underlying reason why. But, you can't argue the fundamentals to a BULL who thinks he/she has interpreted them correctly. So, I look for signs of what the market is about to do in the price movement and technical indicators which, believe it or not, do reflect the true sentiment of the majority of the traders regarding the current price and the fundamentals. I wish I had sold it short now. That would have been a nice play. But, had I been long this market, I sure would have taken profits here as I tried to caution others to consider doing. Too bad they had so much faith in their misinterpretation of the strength of the Fundamentals when that rising wedge was screaming loud and clear that prices were too high and this market was over due for a huge correction.
All I can say is ... I tried to warn you! Wedges are dangerous bull traps and it will be a while now before the market recovers back those prices levels. This market was extremely over bought and they never stay that way for long. A rising wedge is a sure sign of that taking place. Enough said.
CME???? When you folks post a one line comment, don't use acronyms unless you define what they are. CME stands for Chicago Mercantile Exchange among other things.
Institutional investors do not make decisions based on the price level of stock alone. Their analysis goes far deeper than that. That reality is that if the price drops radically is could simply become irresistibly undervalued and in fact, that would amount to a gift to many long term investors who would love that price to enable them to cost average down their over all cost per share.
Actually, that analysis is pretty sound. I tend to agree with him except for the continuation buy signals that I noticed which he may not even be aware of. So, the situation is that there are conflicting signals on the SIRI chart at the moment and it's difficult call which way it will go in the near term. HE is concerned about support at $1.93 and I'm speculating that this market may have already supported and will at least bounce back now to a mall GAP at $2.23. Whether or not the double top is false and whether or not the GAP will prove to be resistance remains to be seen.
Well, you are obviously only here to argue with me! So ... If you do not understand how the right price six months ago can be too low today, I'm sorry, I have to wonder what you are even doing trading stocks in the first place. The price at $0.005 was too high. Wanna argue that one too? I know it was too high because the price has since come down. When the price again become too low traders will drive the price back up. And I'm not wasting any more of my time arguing about it. Those are the facts, and that is why we have a stock market to begin with.
I'll trade any stock that I believe I can make money from. TYTN has tractors but, not very many if an sales so there is a risk there as well. At least the treasure hunters have already found 8 ships. They know what cargo is on those ships. Will they bring it up and profit from it? Who knows? But, I can make a profit on the bounce from the anticipation of the news. The difference is, TYTNs price right now, in my opinion, is little too high given the risk so, I'll wait a while because my analysis of this stock tells me that if I'm patient, I will likely be able to buy it at bargain prices soon. In the other case, the price was so cheap already and the downside risk was so small it was worth buying a lottery ticket. The upside potential on both stocks is very good IF ... and that's a pretty BIG IF in either case. I just like to see a good price when I take a position. In both cases, I believe I will make money or I would not waste my time. What else are you trading?
Wouldn't that be nice? However, that is not the way the markets work or the traders who watch the charts think (and, there are huge numbers of us). The price in this case may not sit on or penetrate the 200 day MA like it does on may charts where support first proves to hold firm, it may just hover above it for a while but, that is not the point. Some of you folks take what I say way too literally. The market is making a correction. Without the divergent sell signal and the key reversal day, I would not have been able to predict that happening.
Right now I have no new signals of any kind. So, I look at the bigger picture on the weekly chart and then try to figure out what is possible here given this set of circumstances. The 200 day MA scenario sounds likely to me. It happens just that way on a lot of charts. No one tries to figure out whether the price six months ago may be adversely affecting the 200 day MA or not. The reality is that the price six months ago was perceived to correct given the information traders had at that time and the proof that the price was the right price at that time is that it was the price that traders were both willing to sell and buy at. So, in my opinion, the likely probability here is that one way or another sometime in the not too distant future the price and the 200 day MA will most likely approach one another and the price will find firm support in the vicinity of the 200 day MA before the price takes a serious run to test resistance at $0.005 once more.
Yup! That is exactly what happens with a wedge. Not just one but, many shorts come into the market when the price falls out of the wedge and a profit taking panic sets in for those who still have shares and want to protect their profits and the price heads lower so, buyers become scarce because no one wants to buy into a falling market where the price is getting cheaper every day so they wait and at some point the shorts take profits and a large block of buyers begin buying again because the market in now showing support and then eventually the price explodes to the upside fueled by short covering from bears who still thought it was going lower. So, I'm waiting patiently for signs of a forth coming explosion and right now I don't see any at all. But, what I do expect to see now is that gravity will take over and the price will begin to fall a little more quickly. Watch the 200 day moving average. Prices tend to support there after breaking through it to the upside like SHAR recently did. It probably won't happen that quickly either because at least one false rally attempt is due to happen first. That rally will begin above the 200 day MA and fail when it gets back to a previous support level which will become resistance at that point.
I agree that the price was too low, the market proved that recently but, don't forget that there has just been a HUGE move up from $0.0005 to $0.005 in a very short period of time. The market will correct here, they always do and usually when a market breaks the 200 day MA, the natural order of things is for it to retrace to the vicinity of the 200 day MA and find support there and in doing so, it establishes for the first time a trend in the opposite direction.
You don't have to believe me on this one, just go look at a lot of charts and market bottoms and see if there is not a frequent tendency for this to happen. Is TYTN that different? I don't think so. It will eventually test the 200 day MA for support and usually the sooner the better because it seems that after that test is out of the way, more bulls are inclined to believe the new up trend and their entrance into the market will launch it higher still.
By George, I think you've got it! Buy the cheap shares! And, noticing those shorts, you are fully aware that when the prices do get cheap, in addition to new buying, there will also be short covering and the rally (when it comes) promises to be explosive.
If you look at the BIG Picture, and view the weekly chart back 18 months or so, you will clearly see that SHAR only recently broke through a 12 month downtrend. The natural order of things now, is for the price to try to correct back to the 200 day simple moving average (daily chart) which it also broke above recently. So, the 200 day moving average is rising now and the price will be falling and somewhere in the future, the will come close and the price will most likely find firm support and mount another wave up which will establish a new uptrend. One wave up with no correction cannot be called an uptrend, it's only a bounce until it retraces and find support higher then previous support and then continues to trend upward. So, we are on the verge of major bull market here and there should be plenty of time to find some cheap shares because most likely, after this market correction, the rest of the shares will be at a premium to the prices to what you will between now and firm support which I think will most likely come between $0.0200 and $0.0225. $0.0250 is possible support but, it would most likely be temporary support for a first rally attempt and then another attempt to support at the 200 Day MA (where it is at that time) will likely succeed in launching the second wave up in the new bull market. So, that seems logical to me at this point but, of course, anything can happen.