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Also, I think the MACD analysis has to take the 1.47 spike into account. It throws the chart off a bit. If the current ..well.. things I see on level 2.. were being played during that day, then 1.47 may never have happened.
LOL, btw your post made me laugh. TO DA MOOOOOOON!!!!!! Thx for that.
Anyway, if I take everything I've seen since then into account, the red moving average is much closer to blue. It's possible that it will never cross downward tomorrow, and yet still satisfy the reversal to bullish.
If I get to say one paragraph to an investor who is in from this morning, it is this: Don't let the dip scare ya. We've got about 60 billion sitting around for a rainy day, and projected profits up the wazoo now. Fannie has chosen to show it's turn around slowly. After all, the big boss there is the Secretary of the Treasury. The less attention FNMA gets on this turn around, the better for the government.
The light at the end of the tunnel for conservatorship, IN MY OPINION, is now in place. Before we see it, again.. IN MY OPINION...there will be dips and crazy run ups.
GLTA!!!
Simple MACD analysis:
Trying to explain this as if I was talking to a 5 year old. Just makes it easier to grasp. Not trying to insult anyone at all.
Without turning this into a 5000 word essay, the short term (as in tomorrow morning) looks like a dip. The mid term (a week or so) looks to be in good shape, but it's indicative of tempered confusion or indecision. Given that we have a scheduled earnings on the 19th and the 10-K hinted that the deferred tax assets may be included, the mid term, I expect, will break from indecision, and pull both moving averages upward after a bottom cross at a higher price.
That red line, when it uptrends from under the blue, is a bullish signal. When red is above blue, in the short term, it implies a dip when turning back toward blue from above. If I had to guess, I would say that FNMA gaps up tomorrow at around .94, then crashes hard quickly to 0.78-0.80. This puts the red line under the blue moving average.
Then we just wait until red starts looking bullish against blue. I think, at that point, it will break the dollar barrier, and various institutions can take their positions.
But, again, I believe there will be a dip tomorrow before lunch. I've got some extra capital ready ;)
Sorry if this offended anyone. I find it's better to explain the dips, and show their temporary nature, than just shout "to da moon" all day. *though that is tempting* =]
In the end: I think we're looking at a stock for the history books.
April 19th. Next earnings is scheduled.
Lol, moving ask down on all buys. Tricks.
That's the earnings after the one we are anticipating. As you can see, there can very well be a cascading effect of amazing news for this stock.
RESISTANCE BLOWN! WOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
Conservatorship = DONE if Fannie and Freddie continue to make profits (imo). Keeping the shareholders out of the loop on profits appears to be unconstitutional via the 5th amendment:
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
Government knows this, thus it's problematic for them.
All it would take is a class action lawsuit from the shareholders, and it'd be over with.
These earnings could tell a huge story. They will come either after hours today, or sometime tomorrow. No later.
I think we're about to test .78 again.
That is why there is resistance here. You are not alone. Earnings are coming out by tomorrow; potentially today after hours. Bad time to get out, in my opinion (just a dumb poster here.. no idea what is going to happen and can't recommend anything by pure speculation).
This .78 resistance is where it seems that it will all start.
I don't believe there will be a wind down of any case. All the shareholders would have to do is file a class action lawsuit, and cite the 5th amendment:
"No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation."
They're looking to be profitable again. There is no need for the conservatorship anymore, pending release of these earnings and they are what many think they are. The government can't just use Freddie and Fannie as a piggy bank. The courts would shoot it down.
I believe all this is known; hence the lawsuits on the banks to shift blame. This creates a situation where the government has an excuse to shift focus on what they "have been saying". They don't lose political points, and then get to claim credit on a housing comeback.
The story here has yet to be told.
And I think it will be one for the history books.
Enjoy the ride, boys. I think we'll get rid of those annoying sub penny extended bid/ask prices sooner than most think.
Today. :)
No person shall be held to answer for a capital, or otherwise infamous crime, unless on a presentment or indictment of a Grand Jury, except in cases arising in the land or naval forces, or in the Militia, when in actual service in time of War or public danger; nor shall any person be subject for the same offense to be twice put in jeopardy of life or limb; nor shall be compelled in any criminal case to be a witness against himself, nor be deprived of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor shall private property be taken for public use, without just compensation.
The Treasury has trampled on the fifth amendment rights of private shareholders, which prohibit the taking of private property for public use without just compensation. If Fannie and Freddie are profitable again, then the government backing needs to end. It will become unconstitutional.
Especially now that it is becoming more and more apparent to John Q. Public the banks are more to blame for the housing mess (assuming we're not going to ever solely blame the government itself).
I'm guessing an artificial panic sell to make people think "someone knows something" before eod. Calm before the storm.
If that happens, good. Cheaper shares for me :)
GO SWET GO! eom
This is what I am thinking.
Very well said!
There was a change of heart by the regulators of the United States that will now allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to pay back the US Treasury the money that they pumped in to keep them afloat. It's only an accounting change, but workable, nonetheless.
Fannie and Freddie are backed up by the government. That is why the bailout happened. The worst happened, and the government did it's part. Now, Fannie and Freddie appear to be profitable again.
For a long time, it was looking like they would disappear off the face of the Earth. It's not looking that way anymore. That is the speculation that is driving the price. Not a guarantee stock value some of the bashers are holding as a banner against it.
When the Treasury is paid back, Fannie and Freddie can come out of conservatorship if the political sphere continues to improve around the issue. Book value becomes reflective in stock price again.
That is the speculation. Take it or leave it. I, for one, am taking it.
"The Federal Housing Finance Agency in August amended the agreements between Fannie, Freddie and the Treasury, to 'phase in a requirement for the Enterprises to pay as dividends their positive net worth every quarter.' The FHFA went on to say 'the change in the dividend structure also will affect quarterly payments to Treasury, potentially resulting in the Enterprises returning more money to federal taxpayers sooner. Indeed, because of accounting treatment, sustained profitability of the Enterprises could result in a one-time large dividend payment from each Enterprise to Treasury.'"
So both companies, Fannie and Freddie, are now profitable and earning enough to pay their preferred dividends to the government, and then some. Investors see value in the penny common stocks, with the possibility that the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) can be significantly recapitalized through the recapture of DTA, enabling them to redeem large portions of government-held preferred shares. If that happens, Fannie and Freddie will likely have sufficient earnings to fully repay the government.
Why would they delay their earnings because of something that was not possible? Sorry, this is just silly...
When this baby breaks a dollar, the limitations of many institutions will be lifted. 2 dollars, even more.
The financials will be out, yes. But, It may not be until Tuesday. I believe that is the last calendar day from when their financials were due before the delay notification. Monday is still a wild card. I think it may be exploited as such to try and do a final shake. Clearly, there is once again a huge buzz for FNMA. I think there will likely be a profit taking moment in the morning which could cause a cascading effect down to .50s. People would think, "oh no! someone knows something bad! I better sell!" In the end, it's all about psychology; and the MMs/big boys know that. But after this shake I anticipate, well.. it's off to the races before close.
Could be way off here. Hell, it could gap at a dollar. It's anyone's guess.
I think there will be massive, massive shorting on Monday morning, after a quick spike. Kind of like the 21st. One last attempt at a panic sell. I have a pile of liquidity set aside for that anticipation.
Man, I hope we see high 0.40s again.
When the news hits, assuming it's what many of us believe, the intense investor buying coupled with the covering could be something for the history books.
Deferred Tax Assets. All hinges on how that plays out. I find it hard to believe that they would just pull that card out without knowing ahead of time that it will work.
But, who knows -- maybe it won't. If that happens, then it will be a sad week.
I'm betting on a big party at my house come the weekend. The invitations are already out.
The lawsuits are just icing on the cake. But again, they won't matter if there is no light at the end of the tunnel on all profits going to the government as dividends.
I like pumper T-MASTER more than basher T-MASTER. Start adding "to da moon!!!!" and the circle will be complete. ;)
Agreed. Sticky needed on post# 58854:
Chart tid-bit:
Could be nothing, but if that red moving average starts trending up toward the blue, we're in great shape. Yesterday's trading indicated a SLIGHT inclination toward that; and the chart has stayed fairly consistent with these MAs.
Guess next week will tell the story. Maybe dilution is winding down.
I hope. GLTA
Well said. Also watch this video of Mizer speaking:
I read the latest "unwind" article as simply taking Fannie and Freddie out of conservatorship. It hasn't been able to stand on it's own for years -- hence the talk of unwinding the companies and reforming them privately.
The game has changed. So has the dialogue in Washington.
Now, it's "unwind government control".
That is good news for shareholders if there is a light at the end of the tunnel regarding bailout payback.
"unwinding government control of...Fannie Mae"
“TEXAN’S PLANS PUT WALL STREET ON EDGE,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Patrick O’Connor. During Jeb Hensarling’s first congressional bid, a man at a campaign stop in Athens, Texas, asked the Republican if he was ‘pro-business.’ ‘No,’ the candidate replied, drawing curious stares from local business leaders who had gathered to hear him speak, a former Hensarling aide recalled. ‘I’m not pro-business. I’m pro-free enterprise.’ Now, more than a decade later, that distinction has Wall Street on edge. The new chairman of the House financial services committee wants to limit taxpayers’ exposure to banking, insurance and mortgage lending by unwinding government control of institutions and programs the private sector depends on, from mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to flood insurance. … In interviews, a half-dozen industry representatives expressed some level of anxiety about Mr. Hensarling’s legislative agenda. However, because the chairman hasn’t offered details yet, they were reluctant to speak publicly about his plans.”
http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/03/welcome-to-miami-the-note/
http://on.wsj.com/YHiC83
An Easter earnings report? It's possible -- and maybe the symbolism is part of the plan. A resurrection!
Enjoy the Easter weekend, fellow investors.
Next week, undeniably, will be interesting.
OK I broke my rule. Adding on a chase. =/ Oh well. FNMA is a solid bet. At this point, I either (speculation) lose half, or... or....
OH my.
jmo
One thing is for sure. We've got volume back in the game here. Back to 110 mill for Monday? lol. Love this stock.
Wish they sold the 120min in my area. 90min, though! That is a solid idea. None on hand at the moment.
Good call on that one, nonetheless.
I feel like this is going to have a crazy dip again before close, and then rally. COMPLETE speculation. Think 21st. Those earnings could come out on the weekend. Though, I think they will come out on the 2nd.
Nothing like a Dogfish Head 60min IPA to close out the trading week in power hour.