Nofun:

"TA" does not cause a stock to climb. It simply portends direction and magnitude.
Haven't you learned that it is a fallacy to expect the stock to directly reflect fundamentals? Look no further than last years stock performance in relation to the 2 court wins. It dropped! TA could have helped you see the danger before you stepped in over your head...



TA is like Polaroid sunglasses that cut the glare so you can see what's lurking beneath the surface. - FFS

nofunnofun:

Really? Man, you miss the forest for the trees.
Why focus on the Zig when we are Zagging near the apex? The 25% down (short selling) is still short. They have not covered. The pressure to do so ever increases....ticktock, ticktock....

Yes - magma continues to melt up through the crust.



Traders seem to have become more willing to buy at support than to sell at resistance - thus higher highs / higher lows seem likely to continue.



Shorts are feeling the pressure, having given up 15% in the past two weeks. Won't be long and they will run fast for "cover."

Not so Moby...
AMRN's pps has appreciated nearly 16% in 2 weeks.

Hang in there BB. We all feel the frustration. If anyone deserves a payoff it's you; you've earned it! Give it a little more time. This beast is smoldering. AMRN's price behavior has shown a change of character the past few days. Take a look at this intra-day 30-minute chart:


There is some sector momentum as well in the IBB chart, which is poised to break out:


This setup is too juicy for traders to ignore.
FFS

BREAKING NEWS: Earthquake Swarm on the AMRN board.


Is the volcano preparing to blow?



All the negative rumblings just bubbles more magma to the surface :)

Is this the lightning bolt you are referring to? :)

RAF:

First of all, crystal balls predict. Price behavior/patterns + key indicators can be forecast subsequent price moves, up or down. I pasted this chart again to show you the effectiveness of this fact - yes - even in a biotech stock such as AMRN.

Descending triangles have predictive value. They don't always break to the downside but when they do resolve, the objective price target IS predictive (see purple arrows). This pattern in fact offered a reliable forecast with price objective of 1.20, in spite of the 2 court victories. This only reinforces what I have been saying about investing only based on fundamentals. They can, as we've seen, be completely divergent of price behavior.
Now you asked whether I actually made money shorting? No. I don't short stocks below $3.00 share price. I did, however manage to take profits based on the signals explained. In so doing, I was able to side step a nasty selloff. Here is a chart showing my actual trades:



I already explained this in previous posts. You can't possibly understand the explanation anyway. You might think you are a tough hombre muscling people around on this board, but you are a weakling when it comes to technical analysis. I fear for you my friend.

RAF-

Red arrows represent lower highs and multiple attempts to break a trading range. Each time rally attempts failed, presenting great shorting opportunities. The price action was very easy to read when framed with support (red dotted lines) and resistance, plus the descending triangle classical chart pattern (black lines).
Notice the declining MACD (dark blue indicator). This is a momentum indicator and each time prices rally up, a lower histogram high is traced. This is a very bullish in a descending triangle patern.
The red highlights are short entries, the green highlights are long entries. The “footprints of consensus value” (price bars) left plenty of clues whether to stay long or not – despite the “promise of the next best selling drug.”
I'm not here to brag or beat my chest with prediction, etc.. I just want to contribute my share from my angle. You are welcome to challenge me in any way with your opinions, but keep in mind, labeling what I do as if I'm reading an "8-ball" is pure "dog"matic crap.
FFS

Wrong STS. More dogma.
Refer to my first post--75795.
I wrote:

Here is the chart:


I made a lot of $ trading between these lines - especially when I chose to hold for the breakout of this pattern just prior to the announcement of FDA acceptance.

The big problem for all who think TA is "reading tea leaves" is their failure to know when to sell. Amateurs are notoriously either too early or too late. Successful traders possess a keen sense of awareness as to when to cut and run and when to allow their trade to run in order to capture the major portion of what the market is willing to offer.

RAF_

I was part of a trading group a few years ago. Many times, multiple picks were identical stocks. Everyone documented their individual views on how the stock would perform during the ensuing week. All got the direction right, but few made profit.
Trade management (entry/exit) is a whole other ballgame and will ultimately determine whether you walk away with a profit or not.

Let me ask you Raf, when are you going to sell and why? I can tell you right now, you will either lose big, or suffer (sometimes the most painful way) immense opportunity cost by selling too soon. That’s because you are too invested in this stock emotionally. I’ve seen you go from being a “hungry for more knowledge” participant, to becoming a nasty mean know-it-all who is smug and rude. FishyFingers has a similar “I’m going to show you” attitude and believe me, that psychology gets burned in the markets one way or another because it draws you away from rational (entry/exit) decisions.

P.S. Zumantu – thank you. I highly value your posts. Without the knowledge and information that you have posted, none of us would value the fundamental potential of AMRN. -- FFS

RAF-

I've never read so many negative posts laced with anti-technical analysis dogma. "Palm reader," really?
While it's true TA is not a crystal ball, it does help you game probabilities of what's around the corner, much like car headlights on a mountain road. Combining price action - intraday, daily and weekly - plus momentum, plus volume, plus a predictive classical chart pattern gives an investment structure rich with synchronous bullish elements; all combining to produce the same message.
Add in the fundamental potential, and you have a very powerful combination that can make you very wealthy.

The problem with those who don't understand or care about technical analysis is their tendency to sell bad news when they should buy it (news's is priced in), and buy good news when they should sell it (again, priced in). TA filters out the confusing deception and clearly defines those situations.

By the way, before I leave this negative board, let me share this example out of my book that happens to be very similar to the AMRN setup right now:

Not always. If traders are trembling in fear their spouse will find out they are down 100k in an AMRN short position because after market orders have stacked up overnight to gap the bid up 10 %, then pre-market trades are significant. Also, if overseas markets are down, US futures are down, and a AMRN is trading up pre-maarket in response to significant news, then that divergent trading behavior is significant. It is a harbinger of the daily trend.

Raf – we are likely at a tipping point. If down, recent low could be tested. Momentum on the heels of yesterday’s PR however could drive pps upward in the up-trending channel (shown below). If volume expands, then we will breakout in a big way to the upside.

AMRN: 1.59 pre-market; +3.92%, while the DJIA futures are down -88 (-.55%), NIKKEI shed -600 (-3.4%), and at the DAX is off -249(-2.46%)!!

Kiwi: Here's some sheep for you to count tonight when you go to bed...

That's right! Also keep in mind the stock's going to appreciate 18.5% up until the 3rd week (options expiry) volcano eruption --point of no return for all you short sheep. :)

Well said!

Beautiful daily price bar today. Opened at the 20 day moving average, stabbed below the 50day MA, then closed above the 20, at the high of the day and the high for the past 12 days. More follow through tomorrow... :)

It's inconsequential, overshadowed and governed by the bigger technical picture.
There is a pervasive negative response to today's news and it's likely to push many towards some degree of capitulation.

This is not the time to panic about pps, de-listing, etc.. This flush we are about to see will be the end of the nightmare -- if you remain a share holder. AMRN bears are waiting for this moment to escape their short position. Storm before the calm, hunker down and be patient

wrong Mog:

The announcement of 967 will be enough to trigger your stoploss to cover (as well as your boss's hedge fund shorts). This will set off a painful (for you) chain reaction of price appreciation. Covering will lead to bargain buying. Hedge funds will move and further drive it up. Option activity will add juice. Once over 3, big funds will start to nibble. THEN they will offer a secondary to dilute only if they need to in order to prepare to meet expanding growth opportunities. Dilution at that stage would force a 'knee-jerk reaction' dip, but lower prices would immediately be rejected, resulting in a bullish event. You know this, so you incessantly badger bulls in hopes AMRN pps will stab down and provide you an exit. Trouble is too many shorted too long and too late in the game. All that down volume has not been reconciled - meaning they are all still short and cornered in this triangle with no volume to escape your mistake. Good news though, volume is on its way. Bad news, the ask will be much much higher. It sucks to be greedy.

Thanks Fishy.“Am I missing anything by ignoring the opening price? I like as little clutter as possible on my charts .”
I think so. I like the open to frame the intra-day price action. It illuminates false breakouts; both upside and downside as well as bullish or bearish engulfing bars – all of which mark key reversals when they trace near support or resistance:

By the way, the bar on the left is what will be the nail in the short's coffin. That's what we are going to see before that train moves back up. It will be their signal to cover. Unfortunately for some longs, it also represents capitulation.
I agree with your chart clutter comment. “Less is more.”
“How many years have you been at this? Have you worked for a hedge fund before?”
Been at this for a long time. Ha, ha, no, I would never prostitute my services to a hedge fund. The good life to me is fly fishing in the most serene places, trading in the most private places and mix in some real “work” to keep the wife happy :)

Well then, perhaps you'd enjoy reading one of my favorite books:
Fly Fishing the Stock Market

Whale: I made this little bedtime story for you. Hope you don't lose any sleep:) No need to be rude to your "Caddie"

Timing's everything right? It's hard to predict when this will unfold, but if this pattern synchronizes with what we are waiting for newswise, I'd say that we should see a volume surge and/or breakout within the next 20 trading days. If not, then we could have a "Hound of the Baskervilles" type situation.... (ie something is wrong behind the scenes).

Marzan - A short position is a short position, whether the intent is to hedge or speculate on falling prices. The point of interest at this stage of development is the fact that these AMRN short positions can suffer infinite loses on rising prices/demand. Keep in mind, once a squeeze ignites, the bullish price action can set off a series of other price/volume surges, one helping to cause the next, enabling the price to slice up through key moving averages and or once broken support levels - now acting as resistance. For example I watch for:

• Price break above the 50-day EMA.
• Moving average crossovers.
• MACD centerline crossover.
• Golden Cross (50MA up through the 200MA)

Many program traders have algorithms pegged to these events in their formulation. So when trading this pattern, these sequential events can slingshot share prices up in hurry.
Hope that helps :)

Thanks Fishy. Great post!

One of the most under appreciated aspects of AMRN's current setup is the fact that much of that accumulation (buying) has been absorbed by shorting; 11% of the AMRN float is short. In comparison, CPXX’s short interest was only 2.9% (pre-breakout). These short sellers are nervous now as the demand line slopes up and volume diminishes. No doubt there are MANY stop buy orders just above the down trendline (supply line). If the AMRN shorts suddenly decided to cover, it would take them 26 days to cover at the current average volume (Short interest ratio = 26). That is a very narrow exit! That is why this squeeze pattern can be so explosive.
Yes, absolutely (Mog and Mik), we will see a similar squeeze for AMRN. A little spark and this thing can easily rival what we saw with CPXX which only had a 2.45 days to cover ratio compared to AMRN’s 26! Mog wants you to think a CPXX similar squeeze couldn’t happen because its market cap dependent – LOL. His objective is to put a sliver of doubt in the back of your mind so that when fairly good (not great) news is announced, his boss can dump the bid, frighten you out of your shares, then run it up without you. Cleaver deceit how he is front running for them.
Trading this stock involves gaming probabilities. When all variables are thrown into the equation, it converts to a Win big in 2016 or win big in 2018 for the bulls who are long AMRN. For the bears who are short, it is a 90% chance of losing and a 75% chance of losing BIG, complements of a high short interest ratio induced squeeze.

It is misguided logic for Mog to assume a secondary offering will tank the stock. When and if a dilutive secondary is announced, the pps will be much higher, scripts will be higher, the future will be clearer, and buy-side momentum/volume will be alive and well. The street would likely perceive it as a positive step towards building future revenue and thus continue to accumulate in earnest - resulting in price behavior more representative of the company’s bright future.

The only hope for AMRN shorts is a halt for futility or an insignificant difference in efficacy for the R-IT trial. Absent of either of those outcomes and they remain locked up in the ‘house of pain.’ Ouch :)

Yes, tracking as expected. Like this:

100% agree.

Technical analysis, when used correctly, can serve to mirror fundamental strength. Granted, AMRN has poor fundamental parameters with regards to earnings, price to sales, etc., but the potential to elevate every metric is huge. The current price pattern mirrors this. As you know, stock price performance does not always reflect strong fundamentals. To trade based solely on fundamental analysis can be dangerous, yielding inconsistent success. Price is king, and technical analysis that uncovers stocks heralding higher prices is always preferred. Trading such stocks like AMRN —that also have high fundamental potential— further ensures that the wind is at our back.

Symmetrical Triangle patterns breakout when the pps is 1/2 to 2/3 near the apex. AMRN is currently sitting at the 2/3 position and is trending synchronous (in terms of timing) with the looming PR. I see 2 scenarios unfolding. It progresses up towards the down trendline over the next 4-6 weeks with increasing volume as resistance is approached and then we wake up to news and a big high volume gap up. The volume (as you pointed out) is the key for this to ensue. The volume (pre-breakout) will indicate the probability of breakout or pullback. If volume is light in the absence of a PR, the stock will likely pull back and retest 1.24. 'Big Money' will use this opportunity to shake out weak hands before running it up to the moon. Often with this pattern, the first break is the fake break (as you noted). If longs feel they can't sleep at night without an active stop-loss, they must factor in this shakeout or they will get whipsawed out of their shares and wake up to the opportunity COST of their lifetime. Bottom line, the company is poised to unleash the fundamental strength and power of their business (which at the end of the day is about revenue/earnings/profit). It just so happens to coincide with a unique, powerful price pattern - full of gunpowder, short-sellers and a fuse that is LIT!

Somewhat so yes. Price action is tracing higher lows and lower highs, while daily ranges increasingly shorten. True this is being impacted by the binary event, but as we converge further into the apex, it won't take much to ignite a move that breaks the down trendline. If so, look out above. On the other hand it would take some devastating news to force a downside breakout (sorry Mog, dilution is priced in). I think FishyFingers' map is right, although I doubt we see a run up to 10 pre-DMC decision. The good news is that the pps will likely be significantly higher when we receive news of a halt or not. Good interim results and no halt will certainly force a pullback, but in my opinion it will be limited by the technical levels of support under the price at that time + the residual short position that still needs to cover + institutions looking to build bullish positions on the heels of strong momentum/volume and clarity moving forward.
I think the all or none proposition applies only to the AMRN Bears who have a 70% chance of getting whacked.
One word of advice for them.....JAZZ

Price breakout near?
As a long time lurker, I appreciate all the shared insights regarding the prospects for V/AMRN. I know many of you don’t give a hoot about technical analysis but I firmly believe that most of the time the technical posture of a stock also represents its fundamental footing. Certain price patterns can also show an element of predictability in terms of fundamental potential. Consider this:
From the .78 low on 11/11/14 to the subsequent high of 3.33 on 3/16/15, those two extremes marked the beginning of a large symmetrical triangle formation (on a daily chart). From then, prices have oscillated within the converging trendlines on decreasing volume, currently resting near the apex. This is a ‘perfect storm’ folks. As big as the binary event is, this massive technical squeeze is of equal magnitude. The probabilities (in my opinion) of an upside resolution to this Classical Chart pattern strongly favor the bulls and thus coincide with the halt scenario.
Those short the stock (large short ratio of 26) cannot cover easily due to this characteristic low volume/volatility and are in essence cornered for the slaughter. Once their stops are triggered, this will blow to the upside quickly on massive volume (think of a zit popping). This base/pattern has been building for a long time and once it breaks, it will sustain a long term short-squeeze-induced bull run. Don’t kid yourself; the pros (hedge funds) are aware of this setup. They will first try to manipulate the price lower to ‘run the stops,’ then run it up to squeeze the huge short interest. I will be watching the option activity (above and below the apex) for clues to the anticipated news event that lights this fuse.
In no way shape or form is this stock broken. The low price, sleepy moves, and low volume appear deceptively as weakness, but in reality indicate a coiled spring.
Has this sort of pattern ever happened before? Yes, in a similar fashion, from March to the middle of June 2012 (prior to FDA acceptance) prices oscillated into the apex of an ascending triangle that broke sharply to the upside. It was equally predictable as this setup.
By the way, lest I forget, the price objective for this symmetrical triangle calls for a price rise to 5.88. If sideline bargain buyers jump in, it could go much higher in the short term.
While the rest of you continue to connect dots, I will do the same– only technically -
:) FFS