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Do you see any technical barrier to entry from other FoB players? Seems that wherever there is money to be made (or the mirage of it), competition develops within months. Just as with Lovenox and probably Copaxone. They need multiple FoBs to have a viable business and it looks like that's what they are doing.
Do you think they would launch with patent dispute still unresolved and the risk of 3x damages? I doubt it so even if fda clears, it means little until Sep.
It's always close to 50/50 whether the next price is plus or minus. I am playing mean reversion. The floor/ceiling 30 days out is ~60% from here if you believe the option statistics - however, be careful there as options are thinly traded here. Just curious, do you ever ask the inverse question when a stock seems to go up days on end.
Bought today - added ~ 1/3 at 33.28.
Enta today retraced to 50% of the min-max value since IPO. To be exact, 33.45. I am tempted to buy and will probably do so by day's end.
My guess is that this is due for a bounce because it is close to prior monthly lows in Dec and Nov.
Biomaven posted about a report about the superiority of Harvoni and I downloaded it. Here is the relevent quote from the adverseevents.com report and their reason for saying that V-pak is inferior to Harvoni. Also got a followup email from AE site today asking to chat.
>>>>>>
Safety Comparison to Existing Treatment
Both Viekira Pak and Harvoni drug labels indicate the following adverse reactions: fatigue, headache, nausea, diarrhea, insomnia and bilirubin elevations.
Adverse events reported for Viekira Pak that are absent from Harvoni’s drug label are listed as follows: ALT elevations, anemia, asthenia, cough, decrease in hemoglobin, dermatitis, dermatitis allergic, dermatitis contact, discolored feces, drug resistance, dyspnea, eczema, erythema, exfoliative rash, hemoglobin decreased, hyperbilirubinemia, increased INR, increasing alkaline phosphatase, irritability, jaundice, lack of appetite, liver inflammation, loss of therapeutic effect, muscle spasms, ocular icterus, other skin reactions, photosensitivity reaction, pruritus, pruritus generalized, psoriasis, rash, rash erythematous, rash generalized, rash macular, rash maculo-papular, rash papular, rash pruritic, skin exfoliation, skin reactions, ulcer, urticaria, vomiting and weakness.
Harvoni’s drug label indicates lipase elevations as the only adverse reaction not included in Viekira Pak’s drug label.
<<<<<<<
Can't find any shares. No way they can compete when Corindus has the endorsements of the biggest names in PCI at way lower system costs. What advantages do you see in Hansen's equipment? IMO HNSN is sol.
Seems like the balloon has a leak. No shares to borrow though.
I hope everyone had conservative expectations like yours. RE Euro, the recent drop has sufficiently discounted that if not more. And it looks to me like USD has hit a top, that may last a while.
I am guessing that the analyst raised the number of generic players by 1 and that pricing got killed. That would be the only credible way in dropping the DCF so drastically between reports.
Last time the Euro dropped 20% in 2011-12, pharmas revenues were impacted to the tune of 5-10% depending on how much of their revenues were EU based. Governments were also tougher on their drug discount negotiations. Not sure what the expectations were regarding EU pricing for V-pak here. IMO they need to be lowered.
RE "Maxim Group downgraded Momenta Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: MNTA) from Hold to Sell with a price target of $7.00 (from $17.00) after the Supreme Court has sent the Copaxone fight over the validity of Teva's (NASDAQ: TEVA) patents back to the Court of Appeals Federal Circuit (CAFC) where the case will be heard over the next year. "
That's a big delta in price target because of a shift of 8 months in timeline. I wonder what changed in his dcf model that would cause such a >50% drop in DCF. Any thoughts?
I could have also made the argument that option pricing showed 100% prob of touching a number +1.5 higher by June expiration so there was guessing on direction involved. The assumption of stationarity in price dispersion models is a big hairball So I won't suggest to anyone to look at option probs blindly without looking at historic data and news context.
Took advantage of the strong bounce and I sold out. From option pricing, the probability of testing $11 is 100% out to June expiration and $9 test is 50/50. I will buy as a trade if/when it gets back down into that area.
I think the mirage of "potential big return" upon generic GA launch is wearing thin as Teva has played their delaying games well. I had an order to sell a small amount of Feb 12 puts above the market and it triggered when the stock spiked down. I closed it out for a small profit 15 minutes ago. I wished I had the foresight to sell the Jan $12 covered calls instead of the $13 a few weeks ago. IMO this will remain range bound until the prospect for launch is a lot more certain than it is now. There is little reason for traders to buy near top of recent range with September date as the most likely launch time. My guess is that there is high probability of testing the low end of the range between now and September. Time also allows TEVA to switch prescriptions over to 40 mg at a rate of about 1.5% per month. A shrinking pie plus increased likelihood of multiple generic GA players also make it harder to value the generic 20 mg GA business. I hate to sound negative but that's just the way I see it - a frustrated long that's considering closing position.
Thanks. From Scotus blog - the last portion of the opinion is pasted below. I wonder how this will impact the challenge of the 40 mg patent.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>
When the Federal Circuit reviewed the District Court’s
decision, it recognized that the peak of the curve did not
match the 7.7 kilodaltons listed in the legend of figure 1.
723 F. 3d, at 1369. But the Federal Circuit did not accept
Teva’s expert’s explanation as to how a skilled artisan
would expect the peaks of the curves to shift. And it failed
to accept that explanation without finding that the District
Court’s contrary determination was “clearly erroneous.”
See ibid. The Federal Circuit should have accepted
the District Court’s finding unless it was “clearly erroneous.”
Our holding today makes clear that, in failing to do
so, the Federal Circuit was wrong.
Teva claims that there are two additional instances in
which the Federal Circuit rejected the District Court’s
factual findings without concluding that they were clearly
erroneous. We leave these matters for the Federal Circuit
to consider on remand in light of today’s opinion.
We vacate the Federal Circuit’s judgment, and we remand
the case for further proceedings consistent with this
opinion.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Does a "clear error evaluation" result in a retrial? And how long does the process take even if it is not a trial?
Did they pick a patient population with life expectancy measured in single digit weeks by choice?
I thought HALO is working on a drug with the same principal as m402 and that's what moving that stock. I am just trying to rationalize a reason for MNTA upside without any Copaxone news. DD and others are way more knowledgeable than me with regards to how HALO's work affect MNTA's value potential. How about you, what do you think is moving HALO's stock, beyond momentum of a "hot' biotech sector.
yeah.
January expiration is next week.
I think the vast majority of the people here can recognize BS. Invert your statement and see how much sense that would make. I must have hurt your feelings when I referred you to babe-in-the-woods when it comes to options. If so, I apologize.
What's there to admit? it is fact that he sold CC's. It is fact that in order for him to do that, he doesn't believe anything will happen on Copaxone in next 8 days. So I have no idea what you are trying to say.
The call that I listened to (I believe it was either the last CC or an investor conference Q&A), they suggested December to early-January as when they anticipate FDA action.
Halo's move may have some influence on how people view MNTA.
"I am sure this big 350k stock and option trader gets their info from FDA or MNTA"
? How is any entity going to have better FDA info than Wheeler? And Wheeler's timing guesses have not been good. To be fair, he still has the rest of January to be proven right for his most recent public guess. I expect that he will make another guess when January is over with the fda comatosed with regard to generic GA. The market has been trained to not believe Wheeler when it comes to FDA timing. It happens when it happens.
Options are just stock price probabilities based upon a price dispersion model so your question seems circular. My post is just observation of how one biggish shareholder is reacting to stock movement, stochastic or otherwise. I do make the assumption that he knows what he is doing as he has done for the past 3 options cycles. He votes with his money that the move is stochastic and sold covered calls. I went along and sold some CCs too. I am sure he got paid more.
I said the opposite. Read my post again.
The owner of 350K MNTA position was happy to sell 3000 of the $13 calls when it spiked today. Implied volatility spiked up as well for Jan expiration and no where as high as it did back in December. Otherwise it is flat out through June. The odds are high that nothing will happen by Jan expiration.
Agree that sales is the only thing that will save the company and they are far from the level they need to get to. I can only conclude that the system is just good enough to move the systems. Vdrive components haven't done anything for sales.
That's a benign interpretation of TEVA's strategy. I think the safer guess is that they want to obstruct generic GA to any degree possible using whatever latest separation technology available even if the detected differences don't matter in the clinic. I note from other threads that you have lost interest in MNTA as a shareholder and that says a lot about the effectiveness of what TEVA has done.
The prior approvals on V-loop and V-sono did not result in improved system sales. Why should it be any different now?
Thanks. I see that GILD is involved in other pathways.
http://www.hepb.org/professionals/hbf_drug_watch.htm
Any of the HCV companies working on HBV, or is the opportunity too small in comparison?
Lots of Christmas parties and the trading staff and strategists were probably high on egg nog. I thought it strange early when someone offered up Dec. 45 calls for 0.50 and probably shorts trying to get the stock under $45. I grab as much as I could which was not much. Ended up buying more stock when the stock didn't react. Market efficiency got crushed by egg nog and absence of traders that took off early. The will take a few days to sink in completely IMO.
Option expiration wagging the dog.
I doubt that as GILD is heading down too. ABBV is down as well but less than ENTA on percentage basis. Probably just market volatility.
Dew, Thanks for sending the article. Other than the fda/legal issues, how does the article compare to your view of the company? I also get the impression that the author talked to the company and provided Momenta a window for comments prior to publication.
Yes. Option exercises are not included in trading plan. You are typically asked by HR to select a way to cover tax liability between market value and exercise cost. You either pay out of pocket or sell enough the the exercised stock to pay the taxes which is withheld immediately. In this case, he paid cash out of pocket to cover withholdings.
That's an aggressive exercise as he didn't sell any to cover tax liability which is the safe thing to do.