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At the risk of sounding hypocritical I think today's sell-side comments on RVNC are fair. Not unreasonable to lower PT's given slower than anticipated trajectory and they don't exactly have a choice given the market movements recently. Still, the analysts agree that Daxi is for real. FUD and ignorance can only keep a superior product down for so long.
If anybody has access to any of the full notes and is willing to post or share a link that would be amazing!
I've lost track of when I first bought ENTA but it was around the same time as you. I previously had a significant position that I did extremely well on in the 2016-2018 period. This time around hasn't gone nearly as well, so far, but those who remember the previous ups and downs know how quickly the narrative can change.
Jake, to his credit, was saying these same things months ago. That tells you all you need to know about the value of Jefferies commentary. They'll release the next note upgrading the stock after ENTA inks a partnership lol.
When jmkobers said of RVNC "historically, if you haven't bought this issue at the right time you haven't made much money" that might have been the understatement of the decade. My current average cost basis is under $12 which has afforded me a lot of patience. I've also been trading around the ups and downs. A few months back I took profits at $37 on some shares I acquired the day after the 2021 CRL. That felt pretty good.
Anyway all that to say I can empathize with frustration from people who may have a much higher average cost basis on RVNC. The stock has no doubt been extremely frustrating and the repeated dilution has meant that despite increasing market cap the share price is lower now than it has been many times in previous years.
RVNC getting a bid from sell-side.
So this statement from ABBV was a lie (of course):
Did everybody just hear that? The FUD from ABBV is exactly that, FUD! Daxi is just as good as the clinical data. And the faster onset is also real. This is exactly what my own research on Instagram and TikTok has revealed.
Mark is doing an excellent job and is well spoken.
I'm very reluctant to call a bottom but we may have seen it today during the AH. Major catalysts coming with CD approval and investor day in September.
You are a seasoned investor. Do you invest based on price signals or your own knowledge? I agree that expenses are out of control right now and the market is extrapolating that that will continue forever. They can always cut costs later. Daxxify is not over hyped. It's the real deal. Eventually it will take major market share.
I'd assume it's because the contract manufacturing facility came online and they're preparing for therapeutic launch.
I agree they did great. I never said the market was rational!
Spoke too soon. Somebody is capitulating. Fortune favors the brave.
Before the bears get too excited, very few shares of traded hands so far since the PR. Let's see what they say on the call.
Yes. I went out on a limb with a bullish guess. We will see what they say on the call. I'm not too bothered by the results because it's one quarter. I think the negative market reaction is more to the dilution than the weaker sales.
I disagree with jbog. This is not TSLA or AAPL. ENTA is miniscule and it doesn't take much buying power to move the stock. This is the only place ENTA is discussed aside from the ENTA board here. That said, I know that's not Jake's intention.
Thanks. That does sound plausible but I saw a message from him some months ago where he revealed other intentions. He quickly edited the message within the 15 minute window to remove the information and sadly I didn't screenshot it when I had the chance. I am preparing to report Jake directly to the Investorshub admins as he is a disturbance to this community. Your post is a very cogent summary of his "work" regardless of his motive and will be helpful in that effort. He can post his low-quality commentary on the ENTA board.
I would give your post 10 thumbs up if I could. Thank you!
Luly mentioned this on the call yesterday. I don't live in Boston but anecdotally I've also noticed more people I know getting Covid recently.
Covid levels will continue to fluctuate and it probably won't have much impact on ENTA unless there's a very significant surge or there's a very significant new variant (both quite plausible). However even absent those the need for EDP-235 is clear. If I get Covid right now I've got zero options anywhere close to the convenience and clinically-proven efficacy of EDP-235. I think it's only a matter of time until regulators, potential partners, the stock market, and Jake realize this fact.
$ENTA is recovering. Next stop $20 🚀🚀🚀. <--- this is an extremely low quality comment and should be deleted along with the message it is replying to.
Jake takes an objective viewpoint by looking at the share price and commenting on it.
A story about asset mispricing for ENTA bulls: Another asset related to Covid, Zoom Video ($ZM) got massively mispriced during 2020. At the peak it was a $150B company for a video chat service $MSFT gives away for free.
I know because I was short Zoom at the time but I wasn't worried because I knew the market is irrational in the short term. There were many voices analogous to Jake's then (bulls in that case) adding low-quality commentary and steering people in the wrong direction.
If you believe in the value (or lack of value) of an asset don't let the FUD, fake news, and short-term focus of the market shake you out.
Also just realized cashtags work on Investors hub :)
I didn't thumbs up this because as a human I don't love that. However as an ENTA investor these stories are inevitable and will probably turn out bullish. Jake is so busy taking a victory lap over one day's price action that what he hasn't realized is that Covid isn't going anywhere. Jay Luly will eventually be proven right about the need for better Covid antivirals and ENTA has the best one with available data presently.
My figure is optimistic yes. We are close on RHA number. For Daxi, remember Q1 numbers were $15.4M for essentially 2-4 weeks only. Q2 is also seasonally stronger than Q1. I don't think $42M for Daxi is impossible but definitely optimistic yes.
No Jake. Clearly there is no deal right now. You're saying that means there will never be a deal. I'm saying you're wrong. Assets get mispriced all the time and right now EDP-235 is mispriced.
Cutting your price target from $49 to $18 after a run from $49 to $18 is indeed after the fact.
These ENTA sell-side downgrades are laughable obviously since they're after the fact. Still, it's what Jay needs to hear right now. Before Jake gets too excited, remember these same analysts will upgrade ENTA to buy and a $100 price target after ENTA has inked a partnership and is already trading north of that.
Sell-side analysis at its finest: after the fact.
Okay I'm going to go out on a limb here and say they're gonna do $88M in sales. $42M in RHA. $42M in Daxi, and $4M in other.
Agreed. If I was not already long ENTA I would consider this an excellent entry point. I've already averaged down and harvested tax-losses on ENTA so to answer Jake's question from an earlier post, I am holding here. I have no clue how the market will react tomorrow.
Just to clarify I meant the opportunity was synergistic, as you have agreed with, not the drugs themselves.
Just been busy over on the other board with ENTA plus some other stocks today :)
$35M for Daxi and how much for RHA?
Would you consider this an admission that their virology pipeline is thin, as certain unnamed people would no doubt argue, or simply a move to capitalize on a synergistic opportunity?
Okay, understood. I will avoid personal attacks. But I can not avoid attacking Jake's FUD.
I was saying that EUA route is now closed and that phase 3 trials will be for standard approval. Of course if there is a flare-up with Covid that could change. But at this point I am assuming EUA is off the table and we will have to wait longer.
Unfortunately the post that was deleted contained some valuable insight. Jake is incorrect that nobody will ever want EDP-235. Assets get mispriced all the time. In the long run Jay will be proven right and Jake will be proven wrong. I also said that I believe there is a gulf between what Jay knows the EDP-235 (and access to their follow-on compound) is worth, vs what the market and less informed participants like Jake think it's worth. Jay is not going to screw-over ENTA shareholders by accepting a lowball price.
I am more disappointed by the closure of the EUA route for EDP-235 as a patient than an investor. As an investor I'm confident Jay will be eventually proven right. However as a patient the lack of an effective once-daily antiviral for Covid is extremely frustrating!!
GREAT answer from Jay on EDP-235. Jake is correct that there is no partner right now who is willing to pay what Jay knows EDP-235 (and access to their follow-on agent) is worth. But Covid is not going anywhere. Reduced vaccination rates and return to normal life will inevitably drive Covid infections. Bulls (including myself) who were hoping for an EUA and quick to market for EDP-235 will have to give up on that unfortunately. Jay will ultimately be proven right as he was with HCV.
I agree. I think the "less spread is bad" argument is dumb.
No this move is not RVNC specific (at least so far). Check XBI, or numerous other stocks today.
Thanks for sharing. Overall I would call this a positive review of Daxxify! He has only injected himself so he has very limited experience compared to some other injectors who have posted on TikTok or Instagram. His Daxi is still going strong at 4.5 months which is longer than he gets from any of the other toxins! He's waiting to see how long it goes before recommending it to patients, given the price difference.
Also per his comments on difference in spread, that's exactly why RVNC needs to train injectors! Unfortunately the single approved indication limits what RVNC can actually show the injectors how to do, but I'd guess "suggestions" are made in the training sessions that would apply more broadly for injectors to develop techniques they can apply to other muscles.