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Yes, boraborak38 is most likely an ABBV shill based on their most recent posts. Dubious that such an incompetent injector could stay in business.
And let that be a wake up call to everybody here. The FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) machine is now running in full force against RVNC. That is new in the last 6-9 months. Before Daxxify was on the market there was no need to run FUD.
Thank you for sharing your experience. I'm sorry to say that it sounds like you and your practice are just not very talented injectors. Your experience is not at all typical from what I've seen on social media. Alternatively perhaps you are here to spread FUD?
Great post, thank you! Distinction should be made between CD approval and CD sales being priced in. Whether or not a future event is priced in depends on the probability the market assigns to that event happening. Fully priced in would be 100% probability. My guess is the market is pricing in a 70% chance of approval for CD. Thus, if they don't get approval the stock will drop considerably, but if they do get approval I expect the price to increase but only modestly. Where I am in complete agreement with you is that the market is not pricing in the CD sales appropriately yet.
Wow! I had previously missed this. I wonder if PFE is a JPM client and this is similar to what MS is doing for ABBV? Sell-side analysis is a dirty business. It's easy to spread FUD by sounding knowledge but then saying things that are false (example: Jake).
Tbh I hope they are shilling because that would be more excusable than pure ignorance here. They also said EDP-235 launch was a 2027 event. ENTA said they have cash runway to 2027 which clearly shortcircuited this "analyst's" brain.
Maybe Jake is that analyst!
Sounds like the one month patient either didn't get dosed properly or perhaps doesn't respond well to any tox, or is just an anomaly. Real world results are following what was seen in the trials across a larger sample size than what you've seen personally.
I think RVNC's strategy is actually quite smart and also injectors who are getting on board early with Daxxify are smart because they'll soon be stealing patients and revenue from those who don't!
Incredible! Thank you for sharing. It's hilarious that they said 6 months then realized it was actually 8. Such a timely example as it validates what Mark said on the call with regards to real world experience following with what was observed in the clinicals trials. 6 month median means for every disappointed patient who only got 4 months there's a patient like this who got 8. It has only just now been long enough for the first of these reports to start streaming in. As these propagate across social media it's only a matter of time before injectors who have negative attitude towards Daxi start losing business!
Also wowster is new here but I can vouch for him he's been a long time bull on RVNC over on Stocktwits. Welcome!
Full disclosure, are you long RVNC? What about any other tox manufacturers?
If you think that's bad you should read their "research" on TSLA. That's exactly why I'm saying that I put absolutely zero value in anything Morgan Stanley sell-side analysts say. They have shown they are willing to get dirty to support their clients. Abbvie must be one of their clients.
Thank you! I really appreciate the share. Unfortunately MS is the one sell-side analyst I'm not interested in. They are clearly shilling for ABBV. They were the ones who asked the softball question about Daxi on ABBV's call. Also, a bit OT, but if you follow TSLA at all you know that Morgan Stanley's sell-side coverage is a bit misleading to say the least!
You were wrong about the raise, and so was I by extension for agreeing with you. The shares they sold may have been 3-5% of the total volume during the period so not totally insignificant especially since so much market action is driven by trend-following CTA's. Still, there's no denying that the main reason for the sell-off was weaker than anticipated sales and especially expenses increasing faster than sales.
But I think you're being too glum about the overall outlook. You may have been too optimistic about the speed, as was I, but that doesn't mean the launch is going terribly and it definitely does not mean that there is not enthusiasm for the product. As Mark said on the call, the real world experience is matching the clinical trial data. This is not a huge surprise since the trial had a large sample size.
Daxi is legit. It has exceeded my expectations on patient results. Don't forget this aesthetics stuff is a nasty business. Every player is out for their own bottom line and there are a lot of entities out to spread FUD about RVNC, not least of all ABBV a well known FUD behemoth.
It's great to have you back Dennboy! I bet you didn't think you'd get another shot to add here. I was sad but understanding when you previously needed a break from RVNC.
At the risk of sounding hypocritical I think today's sell-side comments on RVNC are fair. Not unreasonable to lower PT's given slower than anticipated trajectory and they don't exactly have a choice given the market movements recently. Still, the analysts agree that Daxi is for real. FUD and ignorance can only keep a superior product down for so long.
If anybody has access to any of the full notes and is willing to post or share a link that would be amazing!
I've lost track of when I first bought ENTA but it was around the same time as you. I previously had a significant position that I did extremely well on in the 2016-2018 period. This time around hasn't gone nearly as well, so far, but those who remember the previous ups and downs know how quickly the narrative can change.
Jake, to his credit, was saying these same things months ago. That tells you all you need to know about the value of Jefferies commentary. They'll release the next note upgrading the stock after ENTA inks a partnership lol.
When jmkobers said of RVNC "historically, if you haven't bought this issue at the right time you haven't made much money" that might have been the understatement of the decade. My current average cost basis is under $12 which has afforded me a lot of patience. I've also been trading around the ups and downs. A few months back I took profits at $37 on some shares I acquired the day after the 2021 CRL. That felt pretty good.
Anyway all that to say I can empathize with frustration from people who may have a much higher average cost basis on RVNC. The stock has no doubt been extremely frustrating and the repeated dilution has meant that despite increasing market cap the share price is lower now than it has been many times in previous years.
RVNC getting a bid from sell-side.
So this statement from ABBV was a lie (of course):
Did everybody just hear that? The FUD from ABBV is exactly that, FUD! Daxi is just as good as the clinical data. And the faster onset is also real. This is exactly what my own research on Instagram and TikTok has revealed.
Mark is doing an excellent job and is well spoken.
I'm very reluctant to call a bottom but we may have seen it today during the AH. Major catalysts coming with CD approval and investor day in September.
You are a seasoned investor. Do you invest based on price signals or your own knowledge? I agree that expenses are out of control right now and the market is extrapolating that that will continue forever. They can always cut costs later. Daxxify is not over hyped. It's the real deal. Eventually it will take major market share.
I'd assume it's because the contract manufacturing facility came online and they're preparing for therapeutic launch.
I agree they did great. I never said the market was rational!
Spoke too soon. Somebody is capitulating. Fortune favors the brave.
Before the bears get too excited, very few shares of traded hands so far since the PR. Let's see what they say on the call.
Yes. I went out on a limb with a bullish guess. We will see what they say on the call. I'm not too bothered by the results because it's one quarter. I think the negative market reaction is more to the dilution than the weaker sales.
I disagree with jbog. This is not TSLA or AAPL. ENTA is miniscule and it doesn't take much buying power to move the stock. This is the only place ENTA is discussed aside from the ENTA board here. That said, I know that's not Jake's intention.
Thanks. That does sound plausible but I saw a message from him some months ago where he revealed other intentions. He quickly edited the message within the 15 minute window to remove the information and sadly I didn't screenshot it when I had the chance. I am preparing to report Jake directly to the Investorshub admins as he is a disturbance to this community. Your post is a very cogent summary of his "work" regardless of his motive and will be helpful in that effort. He can post his low-quality commentary on the ENTA board.
I would give your post 10 thumbs up if I could. Thank you!
Luly mentioned this on the call yesterday. I don't live in Boston but anecdotally I've also noticed more people I know getting Covid recently.
Covid levels will continue to fluctuate and it probably won't have much impact on ENTA unless there's a very significant surge or there's a very significant new variant (both quite plausible). However even absent those the need for EDP-235 is clear. If I get Covid right now I've got zero options anywhere close to the convenience and clinically-proven efficacy of EDP-235. I think it's only a matter of time until regulators, potential partners, the stock market, and Jake realize this fact.
$ENTA is recovering. Next stop $20 🚀🚀🚀. <--- this is an extremely low quality comment and should be deleted along with the message it is replying to.
Jake takes an objective viewpoint by looking at the share price and commenting on it.
A story about asset mispricing for ENTA bulls: Another asset related to Covid, Zoom Video ($ZM) got massively mispriced during 2020. At the peak it was a $150B company for a video chat service $MSFT gives away for free.
I know because I was short Zoom at the time but I wasn't worried because I knew the market is irrational in the short term. There were many voices analogous to Jake's then (bulls in that case) adding low-quality commentary and steering people in the wrong direction.
If you believe in the value (or lack of value) of an asset don't let the FUD, fake news, and short-term focus of the market shake you out.
Also just realized cashtags work on Investors hub :)
I didn't thumbs up this because as a human I don't love that. However as an ENTA investor these stories are inevitable and will probably turn out bullish. Jake is so busy taking a victory lap over one day's price action that what he hasn't realized is that Covid isn't going anywhere. Jay Luly will eventually be proven right about the need for better Covid antivirals and ENTA has the best one with available data presently.
My figure is optimistic yes. We are close on RHA number. For Daxi, remember Q1 numbers were $15.4M for essentially 2-4 weeks only. Q2 is also seasonally stronger than Q1. I don't think $42M for Daxi is impossible but definitely optimistic yes.
No Jake. Clearly there is no deal right now. You're saying that means there will never be a deal. I'm saying you're wrong. Assets get mispriced all the time and right now EDP-235 is mispriced.
Cutting your price target from $49 to $18 after a run from $49 to $18 is indeed after the fact.
These ENTA sell-side downgrades are laughable obviously since they're after the fact. Still, it's what Jay needs to hear right now. Before Jake gets too excited, remember these same analysts will upgrade ENTA to buy and a $100 price target after ENTA has inked a partnership and is already trading north of that.
Sell-side analysis at its finest: after the fact.