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It very well could, but I am just saying it depends on whether or not investors get enough information to evaluate the NPV of the agreements. The secrecy is the problem with the stock price.
If the stock rallies to $10, it will be because Lebby has signed one or more deals. The visibility into the deals will determine if double digit prices hold. Based on the details, investors will be able to decide whether to trade some portion of their holdings or decide to wait several more years to realize the buyout price.
I sold a few more naked puts today! Sell time premium, don’t buy it.
One thing I have learned over the almost three years that I have owned LW is how long it takes to get to the next step based on the foundry’s production cycle. Production runs are not three or four days like in my career. It is four to six month production test cycles and that has been the number one frustration for me. This is normal for this industry and patience is required. The shorts have been exploiting this normal cycle to make it appears as a failure.
Yes, but the bears still want the longs to think it is a mirage, con job, paycheck scam, etc. Extremely weak thesis, but it is their platform.
As I posted a few days ago, I believe the current stage of negotiations is all about pricing. Whether that means the upfront money or the royalty percentage or the minimum annual volume, I think all of the above! I do not believe the scalability or the reliability or the stability questions are still part of the negotiations.
To answer your question, if Lebby has not delivered a major deal in the next six weeks, then shareholders will be putting pressure on him to change his deal requirements. For example, backload the pricing to raise royalties after our performance claims have impacted their income statements.
Some signs of life in the 4th Q. Still thinking $35 million is the breakeven point. Also noticed that after this January expiration date, the lowest option strike price is $2.50. I have never seen that happen before so I think it has something to do with a reverse split to get the stock price into compliance.
This is not the type of unusual trading that makes headlines! It could be a method of accumulation designed to stay under the radar because the individual trades are for such a small number of shares. Perhaps nobody would notice, but we noticed.
We are actively looking for forward indicators because of what Lebby has put in writing to the shareholders. If today’s unusual trading is a forward indicator, then I did not connect the dots!
Mark reads like an industry gossip columnist.
Carl, I watched that most of the day and wondered if it was accurate. It seemed a bit delayed and didn’t post any volumes that were 100 shares or more at least while I was watching. I also noticed that the small trades were executed on all of the exchanges that report into level 2.
Individuals don’t place multiple trades of 11 shares or 32 shares or 1 share. It had to be coming from computer programs that wanted to be seen versus dark pool that doesn’t want to be seen. The bid and offer size was normal and ranged from about 400 to 3,000 on both sides, but the trades chipped away in very small quantities.
I don’t have a theory on what it means, if anything.
Because we want a royalty of 35% and they only want to give us 20%. Being ubiquitous means massive volume so there is room to compromise!
I think it is a reasonable gamble. The 800G PIC for direct sales by LW will be introduced probably at OFC in March. Prior to that event, additional licensing deals should be signed although we may be disappointed with the details like the first one.
In my opinion, both parties involved in the licensing negotiations are being stubborn over the pricing. The value proposition is truly superior and both parties know it. Time has a cost and therefore I believe we are close to a major agreement.
Lebby is at the table with companies in the same tier as Cisco, Global Foundries, Microsoft, Nvidia among other examples. You don’t get that far along unless the technology is real and can scale to meet demand. It is all about the financial terms of the agreements and nothing else.
The availability of Lightwave’s 800G PIC for direct sales will be shouted from the mountain tops! That will be welcomed by all long term investors. Enough of this secrecy crap!
I don’t recall so many individual trades of odd lots mostly 20 shares or less.
I agree! Lightwave Logic is a completely different company than it was prior to 2015. Anyone who does not understand this is on ignore.
Well, I don’t own it anymore.
Sorry! I need to remember this is a message board for MPW. I have no interest in discussing this company any longer. It’s history.
I can give you an example if you wish.
Best wishes! I am retired and have too much time especially in the winter!
Schwab allows cash secured naked put selling in IRAs. Regular accounts need to be approved and experience and account worth are factors in the approval.
I am assuming Robin Hood is an alternative place to trade versus Schwab???
You can be called away if your covered call has no premium left the day before it goes x-div. Conversely, you can be put a stock right after it goes X div if you are short an in the money put. It’s all about arbitraging the time premium after factoring in the dividend income.
I sell cash secured naked puts in my IRA frequently. In fact, I rarely buy a stock without checking to see if I can get a lower price by selling a put with the intention of being put the stock.
It is less risky than buying options. It was the wrong stock to sell puts on that is for sure. Better choices were ET and EPD and WMB.
Yes! Lost a bunch!
Happened to see this post by TP even though he is on ignore.
I think we all know TP believes in Lightwave’s technology and its future, but he has been working night and day so he can buy in near $2. He thinks there is too much risk at a $500M market cap.
What I find to be ironic is that initially he put a decent amount of money in call options and put options when the time premiums were extremely high. Many will remember him posting his option positions and I tracked them through their expiration dates. He lost almost all of his money buying extremely risky options.
How ironic is that? Now he won’t take any risk unless he can buy in at the same prices as the cult members. He really wants to join the cult. This is my psychological analysis of TP.
https://www.foxnews.com/video/6344139867112
Right time, right place!
TAIL! Contrary to the popular myth, ostriches do not bury their head in the sand when scared or frightened. In fact, when an ostrich senses danger and cannot run away, it will flop to the ground and remain still, attempting to blend in with the terrain. However, from time to time you might find an ostrich looking as if it has its head in the sand, but not because it’s scared. Ostriches dig shallow holes in the sand to serve as nests for their eggs. The ostrich will use its beak several times a day to turn the eggs in the nest, creating the illusion of burying its head in the sand.
Just another example of false information.
So true on so many levels! Thank you!
My Crummey letters are ready to fill in on Tuesday!
Year end positioning for sure today!
Is it possible that Dr Lebby was looking forward to sharing exciting new milestones during the balance of 2023 with regard to the patent that has been approved by the USPTO, but have not yet been officially granted until the nominal fees are paid.
12/15/23 short interest dipped slightly to 21,863,663. Still a very large bet against the evidence.
Has any poster actually admitted to being a short seller.
Completely agree that once a big name signs up others will sign quickly. This, of course, would be dependent upon a co-authored PR telling the world the news. I understand the pros and cons of the secrecy strategy, but from Lightwave’s perspective, secrecy is not helpful.
In response to Harry’s question during the Benzinga All Access interview, Lebby stated he wanted to sign deals with committed partners who wanted to adopt the technology for years to come rather than just give it a try for a while. (Clearly paraphrased)!
In my opinion, the Tier 1 companies have big egos and a strong desire to out negotiate a small mostly pre revenue company. However, Dr Lebby knows Lightwave has an incredible value proposition and he is not giving an inch at the table. Again, this is my opinion as to why the bigger deals are taking so long.
I replied, but I can’t see my reply. Did I run out of time for free messages?
Don’t forget to stream Reporting for Christmas on Hulu.
Welcome back!
For USA investors, one thing to consider is when to establish your long term holding period. Most have held for well over a year, but for those still adding shares, it could be a risk factor to wait to buy. The risk is the tax rate difference between short and long term gains.
Popular opinion, there is a risk of being bought out at some point. That timing is beyond our control and it may not happen at all. Being long term at that time adds around 15% to your net return. At $5 per share, that works out to $.75 per share.
Hopefully we won’t get bought out and we can hold our shares for another decade before selling. There is no way to know.
The next meeting will be epic! Record turnout for sure!
The only post from Ted that have seen was a reply disputing that he said the stock should go below a buck to reach fair value. Paraphrased of course, but those who read his dribble will understand.
At a cocktail party years from now, Ted can tell his story about how he missed buying Lightwave Logic at $5. I can identify as I have never owned any Apple or Nvidia or Google.