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TTE: Ummm, well - not so much. I couldn't get your excel formula to work. LOL. Getting an error message about a missing parenthesis, but they all seem like they are there.
I'm emailing back and forth with Jon Peltier. I have his Excel add-in, but it's not working on Office 365. Worked just fine on 2013. I had wanted to run the p values for VITAL to practice.
But <wanh - wanh>. I'm stuck.
Anonymous Fish: Yes, I read Esselstyn's book a few years ago. He also recommends in that book no fish.
That may make sense for some people in a very advanced disease state. I'm not so sure it makes sense for everyone. At least reading it got me to reduce red meat consumption dramatically and stop eating salad dressings altogether because of the heavy palm/soy oils.
Along those lines I read a few of the research papers on yak cheese since I wondered about Tibetans and the Himalayan region who won't have access to fish generally speaking (forget for the moment about genotype differences). It seems like the FAP of cheese made from yak's milk has a richer profile since they are eating grass. We can see the same thing among the grass fed cows used for milk production in the US - Organic Valley vs Horizon brands.
yakkety yak
Vertus nutrition has been trying to convince dairy farmers of the benefits of fatty acid enhancement in cattle diets. Of course, dairy consumers in the US need to appreciate these benefits. Europe in general has done a better job of maintaining the nutritional inputs for livestock. The US has gone pretty heavy to soy ingredients. AA.
virtus nutrition
Lot's of commotion this week with May to save her Brexit plan from implosion, eh?
Retinadoc: Thanks, that was interesting. Easy for laymen.
Much lighter than the polemic against pharma I read years ago I think by Dr Peter Gotzsche, of Cochrane notoriety...
"Your Inner Fish" by Neil Shubin - that sounds funny.
Likely collegial, competitive rivalry.
Maybe Sabre will like this analogy in terms of the cardio institutional hierarchy or horsepower?
AMRN has a 4 cylinder and they put a turbo on it (B&W - Bhatt).
AZN purchased an in-line 6 (Cleveland - Nissen).
But, we all know what happened Saturday - AMRN crossed the finish line first.
To AHA's credit - they went with the late breaking, show-stopping news despite the $12-$15 million that AZN donates. Contrast that to AMRN's on again, off again paltry $60,000. Scrappy AMRN paid up for that booth spot though! Kudos to the marketing team.
Ziploc: 100% agree
CBB: I have been wondering whether NVO could be a suitor. They have a really large building here in SLU off Mercer St- maybe since '09 with an emphasis on diabetes and obesity?
According to the news, last month they hired Ludovic Helfgott to head up their biopharma division. He previously was with AZN as head of their cardiovascular & metabolic diseases division. Maybe somebody on the board could opine on any knowledge they have since it also mentions a deal it sounds like they decided not to pursue? www.reuters.com/article/us-novo-nordisk-biopharma/novo-nordisk-picks-astrazeneca-executive-to-head-biopharma-business-idUSKCN1MP14W
Who knows? It's what makes rumors fun.
PSea/Xena: I don’t have a margin account. Etrade lets me put it in for many, many multiples higher. I’m not worried about if those multiples materialized—I’d be ecstatic.
Something seems hinky with yesterday’s law firm PR and implied threats earlier from STAT/Boston Globe saying “bad move.” Glad Boston Trader, JL and others called it out quickly as another drive-by hit piece.
Ahh, thanks Tasty. Almost as much fun as imagining the SEC investigating MO. Likely more interesting questions for the SEC to look at given same faux garbage as with NWBO. Same repeating pattern and likely same law firms. What’s the RRR on SEC taking a peek at the bread crumb trails? Highly SS?
They can’t in your trading account if you put in a sell order like good for 60 days at some high price you don’t think the stock will hit. I think I mentioned this on Friday - It’s putting a “lock” on your shares by doing this.
Orbapu: Yeah. I'll keep those commercials in mind. They are pretty funny.
Weird to think of who might be doing the SP shakedown...lots of possibilities. See Omega Protein - eventually Cooke Aquaculture bought at $22/sh last year.
I think there were same kinds of games in lead up. Part of the nature of the STREET. They can't help themselves unless you are a bigger fish who can eat them.
North: Would you mind elaborating on the BMY/MEDX situation? All I see when searching is BMY bought MEDX for for $16/sh in 2009. Looked like SP chart shows gradual run up.
So, you were discussing the mechanics of getting 90% SH approval? In regards to securities law then, Ireland's completely converge with UK law? Will Brexit have any effects if closing after March 2019 - what were their thoughts? Ireland still in the EU...
Makes sense. Keep the scare tactics up to shake the trees for more shares.
Committees of vultures...
TTE: That would be cool, thank-you.
TTE: Yes, agree. Broader markets are in a mostly bearish mood and likely to remain so in advance of 1) the next Fed IR hike, 2) some resolution to the tariffs/trade war and 3) whatever other animal spirits get conjured up to explain the ups and downs.
With AMRN, other rumor mongering factors aside, I'm focused on sales. And the trend is outstanding.
By any chance, do you remember any posts of yours where you describe how you run the p values, like using an Excel add-in? Last year I tried installing R, but quickly realized the time to learn given my limited expected benefits was not going to be worth it. Kind of like when a friend tried to show me Statistica almost two decades ago....not happening! Still think it would be fun to refresh my brain on running p values, if I could easily do it in Excel. It's been awhile...
Also, couldn't understand the fuss over Log values - that's a generally accepted way to fit on a single chart to show overall trends and signals. It doesn't automatically mean somebody is gaming the data by limiting outliers. Often, people need to consider the design of visual presentation to help the simple non-statistical folk like myself easily interpret it. Edward Tufte people. Yeesh.
Do we have any fly fishermen on the board? Right, then you know how important it is to match the hatch. In other words, whatever say for example, Colorado River Cutthroat trout are feeding on at a certain time - you have to match your fly to what's currently "hatching out" that the fish expect to find on the water's surface. The insect populations pop and then die back down. I like woolly buggers.
Small pelagic fish, often called forage fish, are kind of like these insect hatches. But, they go boom and bust in 2-4 year natural cycles instead of days and weeks.
So, while Europe's small pelagic populations are down, Peru just announced quotas for their second season at 2.1 million mt which is a 40% increase over last year's 2nd season of 1.49 m mt. IMARPE is estimating the total population to be around 7 m mt, which is better than the 6 m mt avg for the last couple of years. The juvenile presence while varying by region is modeled at around 8-9%. Remember, a high juvenile presence shuts the fishing down in a given region and sector. For comparison, last year's 2nd season quota, with an average anchovy oil yield of 1.4%, was likely set too high when still recovering from an el nino, so they only caught 44% of it before the season was closed. Close to 95% of Peru's oil exports were to China and Nissui has extensive operations there.
In addition to the positive script #s Sam reported today, we also have this positive supply news out of Peru assuming fishing goes well.
Smart: LOL! I know. But, it was kind of sad that Disney employed Death Star 2... in "Same as the Old Hope" - it wasn't particularly innovative or creative!
Stone/JL: Right, article STAT wrote. Anybody who knows only a cursory history of AMRN is unsurprised that the Empire rebuilt the Deathstar (MO) and sent out their tie-wing fighters (Forbes & STAT) to fly around the controversy retread. It seemed to me STAT from today's piece was ready to move onto the next items on the checklist, ie, secondary offerings and buy-out talk. They probably assumed that would at least somewhat mollify social media. More pointedly if STAT didn't create too much negative equity for itself, maybe AMRN's VP of Communications would still take their calls for color on press releases.
In the hunt for immediacy & controversy, they missed the larger and more important story on Saturday which was that 90% of cardio doctors, after seeing the complete CT evidence, would like to implement V into their patient care programs. It seems to me there is a lot of story there left to be mined.
They forgot to focus on this:
Instead of this:
MRM/TTE: Agree. Vascepa will prove itself a multi-billion dollar blockbuster cardio and more drug.
Toughing out these inflection points-- Uff da!
Amarin, Vascepa, and mineral oil. There is more to consider with this fish-oil drug story
By ADAM FEUERSTEIN @adamfeuerstein NOVEMBER 12, 2019
This weekend I learned that some people get very angry when you write about mineral oil.
Hello, Amarin (AMRN) fans. Let’s discuss next steps forward for your favorite biopharma — and its drug derived from fish oil, Vascepa — now that the REDUCE-IT study has been presented and published in full. There’s more to the story than worries about a mineral oil placebo.
Amarin’s stock price is down 10 percent Monday. It’s been up and down all day, mostly down. Is that a negative referendum on the mineral oil issue?
Maybe a little, but after speaking to investors, my sense is that the Amarin selloff has more to do with an expected equity financing. Amarin exited the third quarter with $82 million in cash. The company needs additional money to pay for the new Vascepa marketing push. Expect to see a cash raise soon.
If the Baker Brothers — Amarin’s newest and largest shareholder — believe in the future of Vascepa, they’ll buy into the coming deal.
Also don’t discount the hangover effect from Saturday’s Vascepa data presentation. “Sell on the news” is a real thing, particularly in a stock like Amarin that ran high and fast into the event.
Oh, and in case you haven’t noticed, the broader markets are in turmoil and biotech investor sentiment is horrible.
About that mineral oil controversy: I’m not going to rehash all the details here. Please read my story. Also read the take from Forbes’ Matt Herper. He dove a lot deeper into the weeds of the REDUCE-IT data to explain why some prominent cardiologists are raising concerns.
Some of Amarin’s more zealous shareholders logged into Twitter this weekend to dismiss the mineral oil issue outright — and attack those who raised it. Bad move.
Let’s be clear: No one is asserting the 25 percent overall reduction in cardiovascular risk favoring Vascepa in the REDUCE-IT study should be dismissed entirely because of possible harm caused by the mineral oil in the placebo pill. Every cardiologist I spoke with believes Vascepa is providing cardiovascular benefit, so that’s a win for Amarin.
But is it a 25 percent risk reduction or 20 percent? Is it 15 percent? That’s the confusing question, and it’s hard to answer with the data available. But even a smaller benefit is clinically meaningful and important for the type of higher-risk patient enrolled in the REDUCE-IT study. Recall, Amarin designed REDUCE-IT to show a 15 percent reduction in cardiovascular risk.
Step back from the mineral oil controversy and Amarin is still looking at a lucrative billion-dollar-plus commercial market opportunity for Vascepa.
Is Amarin still an acquisition target? Yes, most definitely. I’ll reiterate what I wrote in September because it hasn’t happened yet: Amgen could buy Amarin easily. Such a deal would make a lot of sense, given Amgen’s stated desire to grow its cardiovascular business. Amgen sells Repatha, the PCSK9-targeted, cholesterol-lowering injectable. Slotting Vascepa into its existing salesforce would be a no-brainer.
Also: I said logical M&A deals often never happen for multiple reasons.
I have a new thought: Will the grind of selling Vascepa into this broader indication be too taxing for a relatively small company? Amarin is venturing into Big Pharma cardiology territory now, so is it better to sell the company and let Big Pharma (or Big Biotech) do the hard work?
Amarin CEO John Thero has done a remarkable job steering Amarin to this point. He’s persevered through a lot of years of adversity and setbacks. The man has saint-like patience. He has to be tired. So, is now a good time to cash out? Not just him, personally, but Amarin?
I think the answer to all those questions is yes. And if Thero does engineer a profitable sale of Amarin, he’ll be hailed as a Wall Street hero.
Yes! CommScope could push the cable cos to settle.
Who will buy the patents, indeed.
We shall see.
JT/JL : thanks for posting ppts and recaps.
Was there any discussion on the difference in the Jelis and R-It trials between the 1.8g & 4g EPA EE dosings?
Interesting that there was talk about lipid oxidation - usually our internal human antioxidant systems are highly redundant and effective until we enter a disease state. I get that this was brought up to contrast DS vs RX here (volatile oxidation products removed during deodorization step...core aldehydes, maybe not)- but I thought still an open question as to in vivo production of lipid oxidation products. In other words, are oxidation products causing the disease or is oxidation occurring once the tissue is compromised?
Here's an in-depth link on lipid oxidation issues with a quick version cut and paste at the bottom of this post when corn oil studied in rats:
www.researchgate.net/publication/313687433_Biological_Implications_of_Lipid_Oxidation_Products
Oh wait, isn't corn oil the placebo in the STRENGTH trial? ...AZN. How does that old proverb go - those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones? Except of course where they want to create a cloud of uncertainty regarding the AA spiking the level of inflammation versus EPANOVA to juice the results just enough? Side benefit to their throwing stones: it keeps a competitor fighting pointless fires.
Where's the media coverage on what is effectively AZN's online advertising spend? If this is that on trend a topic we should be treated to articles on corn oil induced tissue dysfunction.
Let's not forget STAT is owned by Boston Globe media partners. digiday.com/media/health-care-news-site-stat-starting-crack-vertical-media-model/ They want STAT to be a health care news brand extension much like Crux was supposed to extend their Roman Catholic church coverage. They expected to dish it on the Catholic Church and then that Catholics would add-on as Crux subs, too?
The executive editor, Rick Berke, formerly was at Politico. twitter.com/rickberke He understands the controversy sells part of the equation for STAT and this is practically a cliche to every other month have another Omega-3 story that says the exact opposite of what was said the month before. AVII77 laid waste to the MO fallacy.
Ferret: I just returned from China yesterday. The Great Firewall has been armored up even since my last trip over there a few months ago.
I used Express VPN, consumer best of breed, and it only worked 2 out of every 10 attempts. China has plugged most of the VPN holes now and is selling their firewall technology aggressively to other governments. www.cnn.com/2018/11/01/asia/internet-freedom-china-censorship-intl/index.html
I saw on one of the links to Gary at StockTwits that during the 1 hour post presentation Q&A that JT said China would take too long to approve. I kind of figured, but nice that JT admitted it - China takes about 10 years for approvals, if the drugs even get approved. As I previously showed with volume data - these other markets are like Christmas Tree bills in Congress. Lots of shiny ornaments for investors to salivate over...but not so real regarding ROI. Example - UAE - they have like 1 million Emirati citizens. LOL, those poor sales veeps who want trips for belly dancers.
DiTD: Agree, that's how I look at it.
It would be nice if P/E multiplier stays consistently within at least a 25-30 range for AMRN. Biotech industry median on P/E - 28.79. Granted that includes a lot of companies that have more expansive product lists than AMRN. But, AMRN has going for it 1st Amendment free speech for expansive marketing of their one compound.
I don't think AMRN will have only 1-2 million patients - I think millions of patients is a reasonable expectation, probably by mid-way through their remaining patent life. Suggestions otherwise are folks looking to a bear raid on AMRN's camp.
It's a good time for bulls to lock their shares with brokers now that the 9/24 results have been published in the NEJM. JMHO, of course.
Bear raids? Solution: buying Open Season!
Good one Justus!
I agree. People prefer solutions-in-a-pill, especially if subsidized, so they will swallow 4 huge horse pills but usually only once they have an acute need rather than make lifestyle & dietary changes.
The data shows the same from 2016:
Pharma oil estimated sales, combined all concentrate levels-
Australia 18 mt
Canada -
China -
Europe 531
Japan 745 mt
Mexico 16 mt
Other 19 mt
Asia 33 mt
USA 605 mt
The USA market total volume of O-3 oils
DS 19,562 mt
Pet Food 7,518 mt
Food & Bev 1,457 mt
Pharma 605 mt
Clinical Nutrition 256 mt
Infant Formula 218 mt
Food & Bev's usage isn't very high when compared to DS (althought for F&B it's also because of formulation/recipe issues).
I wonder if China will fast-track approval for V when R-IT is out?
Anyway, convenience matters.
Skip to the parts I've put in bold below:
INTERVIEW: Fishmeal and Fish Oil Will Continue to Be of Value in Aqua Feeds - IFFO
[Feedinfo] - November 2, 2018
IFFO's Annual Conference, which took place in Rome a few weeks ago put the spotlight on the contribution and role that marine ingredients play in animal nutrition.
In Rome, IFFO’s new Director General Petter Johannessen argued that the marine ingredients industry still has some crucial work ahead. In his closing remarks, Johannessen stated: “We have listened, are listening, and going forward IFFO will focus on three core areas. First, engaging our stakeholders from across the value chain, positioning marine ingredients as having the true value they have. Second, proactively communicating that true value and their unique and important role in global food production, while analysing new areas that are ready for innovation. And third, an evidence-based approach means that we will stick to the facts and be transparent in our activities”.
“We need to map and engage our value chain in order to identify the downstream drivers to better predict future impacts and identify areas of growth for the fishmeal and fish oil industry. We need to be bold in communicating key messages about the nutritional importance of these materials in global feed and food production”, Johannessen also told Feedinfo News Service.
Shortly after the conference, Feedinfo News Service and Johannessen discussed various market dynamics affecting the fishmeal and fish oil sectors. We were joined by Neil Auchterlonie, Technical Director at IFFO.
[Feedinfo News Service] Mr. Johannessen, can you paint a picture of fishmeal trade in Europe at the moment?
[Petter Johannessen] The European market is almost self-sufficient when it comes to fishmeal consumption, as both local production and apparent disappearance (= production+imports-exports) are at around 800,000 mt per year. The major producers are Denmark, Norway, Iceland (together providing approximately 60% of the total output), Faroe Islands, Spain and the UK. The Nordic countries use a mix of whole fish and trimmings from filleting as raw material, while Spain and the rest of Europe use mainly trimmings. The major consumers are Norway, the UK/Ireland, Turkey, Greece, Spain and Italy (together they account for around 90% of the total). Norway and the UK/Ireland because of salmon farming, the Mediterranean countries because of seabream and sea bass mainly. Main imports (from outside Europe) used to originate from South America, but now a mix of sources is used, with Peru playing a less crucial role. African countries (Morocco, Mauritania, Senegal and South Africa) are gaining ground thanks to the vicinity to the European market.
[Feedinfo News Service] And European fish oil trade?
[Petter Johannessen] In terms of fish oil there is an annual gap of 150/160,000 mt between domestic production and consumption, estimated at around 400,000 mt per year. The main producers are Norway, Denmark and Iceland (60% of the total), followed by Germany, Spain and the UK (as per the raw material used see fishmeal). In terms of consumption, Norway is by far the main consumer (40% of the total), followed by Turkey, Greece, the UK/Ireland, Spain, Italy, Faroe Islands and France. As for the origin of imports we still see Peru, Chile and the US playing a key role given the great amounts of fish oil provided by their fisheries. However, as for meal, Morocco and Mauritania (and to a lesser extent South Africa and Senegal) add tonnage to the European market.
[Feedinfo News Service] At the conference, part of the debate was steered toward how the marine ingredients industry is perceived. What would you like to say about these perceptions?
[Petter Johannessen] The marine ingredients industry is positioned very far upstream relative to aqua feed and aquaculture, and most likely this has resulted in some misperceptions perhaps due the relative visibility of this sector in comparison. IFFO has consistently worked on key messages around responsible sourcing, and fishmeal and fish oil nutritional contributions, but we acknowledge that there is more that we can do in communicating the key messages about this important ingredient that is the foundation of important global protein supply chains such as aquaculture. Our current and new project work will provide valuable information that will enhance these messages through 2019 and beyond.
[Feedinfo News Service] What kind of recent noteworthy work at industry level have you seen that is geared towards the improvement the performance of fishmeal and fish oil in feeds?
[Petter Johannessen] The performance of fishmeal and fish oil in feeds is a result of the inherent nutritional qualities of these materials, and for the most part these are set relative to the contributions from the raw material supply. There are, however, a couple of areas that advances may be made and where IFFO continues to work. These are in relation to the use of antioxidants to protect the quality of fishmeal and fish oil, and that work is ongoing as we seek to provide more options for fishmeal stabilization that are available to producers. Another very important area is the work on responsible sourcing, and the development of the IFFO Responsible Supply standard especially, which is adopted by a large proportion of the industry (c.50%) and has provided an independently-verified mechanism of communicating the industry’s environmental credentials.
[Feedinfo News Service] In June 2017, the European Commission suspended the authorization of the antioxidant feed additive ethoxyquin. Mr. Auchterlonie, you told us at the time that alternatives to ethoxyquin are limited (i.e. IFFO estimates that globally, approximately 2/3 - 3,300,000 tons/year on average - of fishmeal produced is stabilized with ethoxyquin), but IFFO is looking at other options. Would you like to provide an update?
[Neil Auchterlonie] We are expecting the European Commission to provide a decision on ethoxyquin before 30 September 2019, which is the date listed in the regulation. Until then we cannot really comment on ethoxyquin. There are some alternatives already in the market and some of these are used to stabilize fishmeal and have been for some time. Some of those are also under a reauthorization process in the EU, in the same way that ethoxyquin is, e.g. BHT. At IFFO we have also been looking at a range of available options for other antioxidants and this work is very interesting, but as a trade body we are not in the position to take any of those products to market – that is for manufacturers to do so. One thing we have been trying to do is raise awareness of the opportunities in the fishmeal market for some manufacturers of alternative products. In this way we may at least be able to prompt some interest in the fishmeal industry as a potential new market for some manufacturers that may not have considered it before.
[Feedinfo News Service] Can you give a brief overview of the evolution of the IFFO Responsible Supply (RS) standard?
[Petter Johannessen] IFFO RS resulted from an idea first proposed in 2007, and the development of the standard in 2009 was a case study in industry working productively alongside the NGO community, with IFFO RS now a separate limited company from IFFO with its own Board and Governing Body Committee. IFFO RS’s mission is to enable Marine Ingredient producers to demonstrate to all stakeholders their commitment to responsible practices in the areas of raw material procurement and food/feed safety, and its vision is that all Marine Ingredients produced globally will be sourced from responsibly sourced fisheries products and produced in a safe manner.
Although the standard looks at the fishmeal plant as the unit of certification, the sourcing of raw material is addressed, using the FAO’s Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries as reference. The first fishmeal plants were certified in 2010, and by 2017 135 plants in 17 different countries gained IFFO RS certification. These represented over 45% of the world’s combined production of Marine ingredients as IFFO RS compliant. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, approximately 50% of global production will be compliant to IFFO RS.
In addition, the IFFO RS Programme has gained ISEAL associate membership, this assures the value chain that the standard follows well established and recognised codes of practices for standard development, assurance and impacts assessing and monitoring.
The initial focus of IFFO RS was on single species feed fisheries within well-developed fisheries management systems, but as demand grows, and the need for the marine ingredients sector to protect its position and reputation globally, there is a collective need to work with fisheries that are more complex and to support them on an improvement journey. As a result, the IFFO RS Improver Programme, which provides a mechanism by which fisheries that do not currently meet the IFFO RS requirements can work towards approval for certification along a structured pathway and obtain recognition for consistent progress made towards achieving IFFO RS approval, has been developed. This work has been undertaken in collaboration with the aquaculture value chain, in their quest for responsibly sourced feed, with the latest FIP to be accepted on to the Improver Programme, the multi-stakeholder Ecuadorian small pelagic species fishery. A series of pilots in multi species fisheries in SE Asia (Thailand and Vietnam) is also being launched shortly to test a new set of criteria in order to expand the IFFO RS IP to these more complex fisheries and to drive change in capture fisheries.
[Feedinfo News Service] How is growth in the human nutraceuticals segment of benefit to the production of fish oil for the feed sector?
[Petter Johannessen] The direct human consumption market for fish oil is actually relatively stable, at somewhere between 17-20% of total annual production. Although this is obviously significant, it does provide stability in the global market, and is clearly an important entity in itself. Overall it would be difficult to say that this is a benefit to the feed oil sector, but at least it is a known quantity in the market itself. A possible positive impact is that market pressures could provide incentives to utilize the raw material from the processing industry, i.e. trimmings and byproduct, to a better efficiency level. Also, with the provision of fish oil a constraint to the development of salmon farming, and especially the supply of EPA and DHA in particular, there is scope for supplementation with alternative sources such as those from marine algae.
[Feedinfo News Service] As you know there is a lot of discussion about replacing fishmeal and fish oil with alternative ingredients. And purchasers are more willing to seek other options when the prices of fishmeal and fish oil are higher. What would you like to tell the feed ingredient buyers?
[Petter Johannessen] We don’t need to tell the feed ingredient buyers anything that they don’t already know, which is that fishmeal and fish oil are the great materials for supplying protein and energy and the best sources for some key nutritional requirements such as essential amino acids, essential fatty acids, vitamins and minerals. Fishmeal and fish oil will continue to be needed in aqua feeds for many years to come, and the alternative ingredient sources can supplement the approximately 5 million tons of fishmeal and 1 million tons of fish oil that we have every year in order to maintain growth in aquaculture production.
[Feedinfo News Service] And at this point in time, do you think products like insect meal and algal oil have more of a supplementation role or replacement role?
[Petter Johannessen] All the alternative products have an important supplementation role to perform. To date, no alternatives have the broad nutritional spectrum of fishmeal and fish oil, so it is the case that feed formulators will make best use of a basket of available ingredients (including fishmeal and fish oil) to provide effective diets for farmed species.
Thx for explaining, Maverick. I thought that ticker was a pot stock. Clouds of 420 perfume the air in the PNW.
Seattle has many immuno-oncology start-ups from SLU on up to Bothell. Usually they are early stage. There may be others on the board who are better acquainted with what's up in Seattle and what may be the ramifications of Paul Allen passing.
I remember reading this one in Seattle magazine 3 years ago.
www.seattlemag.com/article/immunotherapy-research-rebooting-seattles-biotech-sector
When time permits I cruise the local press and Jeffrey Loo's S&P Capital IQ sector reports (CFRA)-
juno to celgene - the long patience pays post IPO
ipo pop & hold
sv to sea
www.geekwire.com/2018/something-in-the-water-why-silicon-valley-investors-are-placing-more-bets-on-seattle-startups/
And back on the board's topic du jour - seawater... Two weeks ago, I returned "The Water will come" only partially read to the library. I liked the part about how Norfolk, VA was practically ground zero as a "climate denial hotspot" - yet, the Navy is on boarding vast and expensive improvements to shore up their installations. Meanwhile, the locals are whistling Dixie. Uff da.
Z: Orivo is trying to sell NMR tech - and perhaps not using marketing best practices to go about it in this instance.
Like BASF tries to sell analytic devices and kits to test for mineral oil. And probably has 10 lobbyists permanently stationed in Brussels to make sure its front and center for upcoming regs.
Bottom line - you poke holes at krill and it comes back to bite you on fish oil.
Ask farmed vs wild salmon industry how well that's worked out for them? Or our domestic auto industry and Japanese cars in the 80s on up to today.
Consumers just get scared and don't bother to distinguish the two.
UN CODEX committee (lack) of update
UN FAO - no progress to finish a draft by Codex Committee on Nutrition and Foods for special dietary uses to come up with a draft document for the NRV-NCD (Nutrient Reference Value-Non Communicable Diseases) on O-3s (only at 250mg/EPA+DHA).
Their next meeting in Berlin is btw Nov 26-30th. Maybe R-IT will make a difference to the committee and they are waiting for it to finish draft before meeting in Berlin?
See recommendation 1.
Codex Alimentarius Commission Oct 2018 Agenda Item 7 NRV-NCD
STS66: Sorry to hear about the tumor. :-/ Good luck. You'll be in my thoughts and I hope they can get it. I've been imagining you like a Corvette character in Pixar's Cars.
And good luck to all of us. Many kind posts and I like reading everybody's stories especially since I'm so new to trading (apart from 401K and IRAville).
I'm still a wage slave (+ work travel) + family = life gets busy. LOL and this board is seriously distracting. I'd like to have a little success here, too. It's our favorite American pastime to root for the underdog isn't it?
JL: Yep, MPs doing their job. And you doing yours. Good, you were able to remind them to find the humanity in the situation. I've since been to Vietnam twice maybe again before too long. Yes, you can still get ridiculously cheap tailored clothes over there. Thailand is even more known for it.
Joonam, even though I'm comme-ci, commme-ca on sturgeon eggs, I adore the Persian language studied it for a year and half not too long ago. I find it even more beautiful than French. Rita - Shah Doomad
CC: Yes, 1972 if using the Lunar Calendar. Using the Western Calendar, 1973 - born to a cool rocking daddy in the USA. The sniper post was good - because it shows what happens when you knock off a weak link that was serving a purpose to maintain the status quo. The old guard including that sniper knew the tacit deal (hey guys, i gotta be here, but i wanna live so i'll continue to miss and we'll all live in harmony). But, the green "leaders" coming straight over from the US didn't know their environment. Lots of nicknames for those lieutenants. I think I've read enough of BioB, Festering Pus, and Capt'n Beer's posts from 2013 for highlights on the committee of vultures that usually circles around these parts. It was enlightening.
Clausewitz's On War, has many passages of wisdom. Some day, when I have the free time I'll read it from cover to cover. In the meanwhile, I have it distilled down to Helmut Von Moltke's "No plan of operations extends with certainty beyond the first encounter with the enemy's main strength." 1864 trailer
Leaving out the global Venn Diagram of other interests enmeshed here for the moment - from a 35,000 ft view- DS $140B/yr vs $140B/yr Biotech and BP $450B/yr. Do you think Romney is going to win? That was a rhetorical question.
Next rhetorical question - do GS et al, make money playing both sides of the table? The status quo or churn - it doesn't matter to them. They own the casino.
JL: I could never get into the Simpsons.
But, you made me curious. Last night I went and watched on YouTube old reel footage by Army surgeons. Then I clicked on your Joan Baez version of the Dire Straits’ song #142471. I do like her voice better on the cover, but I still prefer the music on the original better.
Excellent post #132507 especially regarding Hue. I was in Vietnam in 1972, too. But, you might have to get imaginary to arrive at my age today.
Also, your sniper post was prescient. I’d say AMRN over the last 5 years has been left as that original sniper was to take a pot shot every morning, but the tables are about to be turned. From what I’ve seen, this is indeed standard practice by certain leaders with experience and the resources to keep such a set-up in place.
World CFO Production 1976-2018e
I charted the numbers going back to the 70's. The really big down years are el nino events.
Also, for those who want a deep dive on fisheries data I'll list a few more thoughts for a little more CFO supply coverage and then I'll leave it alone unless I see something relevant -
USA - Menhaden is the primary species used for CFO production in the US. There are 8 US Regional Fishery Mgt Councils, established in 1976 by the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation Act (followed the development, errr assertion of the EEZ by Truman starting in 1945) made up of stakeholders. Most US fisheries fall under this mgt scheme. For example, pollock is managed by the North Pacific Fisheries Regional Council (NPFMC).
But, not menhaden. Menhaden is managed under special Federal Amendments, from back in 1982 I think, via the Atlantic States Marines Fisheries Commission and Interstate Fishery Management Plan (Gulf). There are 2 main populations we fish on - Atlantic Menhaden and Gulf Menhaden.
In fisheries mgt, they set TACs (total allowable catches or "quota"), but with fishing you don't always land the entire TAC. Stock assessments are made by fisheries biologists and sometimes their population models of the total biomass come under attack from the public. You will sometimes see the headlines from the Pew charitable trust, for example since they have their own way of running the numbers.
2017 Landings-
460,700 mt Gulf menhaden
128,900 mt Atlantic menhaden
Almost 80% of ATL menhaden quota is for Virginia and the non-bait allocation goes to a plant in Reedville started in 1874 by Cap'n Elijah Reed from Maine. He brought his knowledge of making whale oil and applied it to menhaden. The rudiments of prior art go way back. You'll notice Nissui was whaling in WWII, too. All of this is searchable.
Chile - Figuring out their system, is tough because they are constantly changing their laws and divide their territorial waters into north and south regions that are managed separately. Plus, there is a multi-region commission called the SPRFMO which weighs in on jack mackerel. Like most fisheries management schemes where more than one country asserts rights it's a confusing tangled web of committees and constantly shifting policy. Chile is estimating 3% less quota for 2019 due to NOAA on Oct 1, 2018 predicting a mild el nino for this upcoming winter.
[Aside: The EU is like this, too. You have the EU Common Fisheries Policy and then each country wants their own separate allocation apart from the EU. You have ICES making their recommendations from Copenhagen as well.]
Here are the websites if interested in Chile, but remember this doesn't cover what's really going on behind the scenes on a political level - they just report on what's been hashed out:
www.inpesca.cl
www.sernapesca.cl
www.ifop.cl
www.sprfmo.int
The main thing is the chart at the top.
JFMCRR/STS66: Yes, on the supply side - to paraphrase Tip O'Neill "all fisheries politics is local." I'm optimistic on AMRN going into the 10th. I agree the long term hold is promising if you can weather the storms.
I was talking to one of my cousins, who is an interventional radiologist, last month about fish oil ethyl esters and he said that they use the ethyl esters of iodized poppy seed oil (fatty acids) as a contrast agent during x-ray fluoroscopy. It's called lipiodol. Also, I heard about this company in Iceland; they are using medical grade cod skins as bandages. www.kerecis.com
Not everything in health care is entirely synthetic yet.
LOL. Yeah, 80,000 dox & counting. Cha-ching, cha-ching. Billable hours count just went way up for the 13's army of paralegals - at what $175/hr in NYC? Or they putting to the attorneys at $300-$600/hr?
Thanks KHenry for posting. Appreciate it!!
sorry - Florida's west coast beaches - south of Tampa. I've been on the west coast for so long that everything always seems east to me!
JT: World Fish Oil. That's correct - still anchovies, sardines, mackerels, menhaden, pilchard, sandeel, norway pout, blue whiting, pollock. There are other species, but these are some of the main ones. Anchovies, sardines and mackerel are the big 3.
There are about 40 countries that produce viable commercial quantities.
Top 13 Fish Oil Producing Countries 2017 (,000 mt)
Peru 98.7 mt
Chile 120.2 mt
USA 76.6 mt
China, PR 50 mt
Japan 78 mt
Norway 53.6 mt
Vietnam 68 mt
Denmark 53.1 mt
Morocco 39.5 mt
Iceland 37.7 mt
India 49.6 mt
Mexico 33 mt
Ecuador 26 mt
Every fish has a different fatty acid profile (FAP). Some yield a lot more EPA + DHA than others. And some yield a lot more EPA than DHA (tuna heads and trimmings used in Morocco for example are mostly eyes - and what are eyes and brains? Mostly DHA - so about a 5:25 ratio). Even within a species their FAP changes depending on what they are eating, what time of the year it is - are the fish post-spawn?, the water temps, where they store their fat (in their muscle like salmon or in their livers like cod a demersal fish or do you usually get a lot of oil from the copapods in their stomachs of the larger pelagic species?) JL is right - DPA doesn't comprise much in a typical fish FAP, so it would be hard to get large volumes.
Here's an example of what can happen. Remember the BP oil spill? The oil yields in the menhaden fishery in the Gulf of Mexico cratered and weren't normal for around 3 years - menhaden juvenile recruitment appeared to be normal, but the oil yielded from landings was not. This may give you another reason to pay attention to red algae blooms in the Gulf and the fish die-offs that wash ashore on Florida's east coast beaches that the park rangers clean up so tourists can still enjoy the beaches like Lovers Key SP.
Peru governmental agency responsible for managing their fisheries is called IMARPE- IMARPE I use Chrome - but if you have the Google translate gadget then it will translate the website into English and it's pretty good. From there, you can see catches, historical catch, etc. They have 2 quota seasons. Nov-end of Jan. And then again from April to July. Peru tries really hard to do a good job managing their fishery stocks and have come a long way - next year estimates are for about 5 million mt of quota. This is not official - just an estimate. They will do a research trawl survey in November and based off of that will set the quota for Nov '18- Jan '19.
What happens in Peru is like following OPEC for regular crude (2017 was low because they were still coming off an el nino). Peru would be like Saudi Arabia. And Chile - I don't know, you pick Iraq or Iran? It's like thinking in terms of world crude fish oil reserves - only it's renewable assuming we maintain the health of our planet at current levels.
If AMRN mgt comes out and says our co-mans (CMOs) are sourcing & refining EPA from Euglena, the short attacks will follow.
I can't imagine if Exxon came out and said we're sourcing all our refinery inputs, not from known oil and gas reserves, but from research and pilot projects then my guess is shareholders just like for Exxon would be like WTF?!
Long term - absolutely I believe alt-sources will become viable. Whether it's 3-5 or 10 years out is anybody's guess.
So, digging into more on Euglena, chlorella, spirulina, Volvox colonies and the like, etc it's probably OK if you want, for these reasons 1) if it helps reduce personal anxiety over "supply" issues mentioned in the financials 2) to research new early stage candidates to invest in or 3) to feel hopeful about life in general from biotech advancements. I'd say #2 is the most reasonable as there are better ways to address 1 and 3. I personally am not putting much by way of research efforts into it because commercialization is too far out.
In the agri-business space, the ABCD group as they are called has had lackluster growth for years. Food commodities haven't been that exciting since 2008-9 with some regionalized food panics. Partly since they are so big that to show growth is hard, because it takes a lot to move the dial. Think of them more like dividend payer types - fairly safe moves to basics like Hershey or Con Agra when everything else seems too risky to you. Further remember, that depending on which data set you are using (->like everything in life), at least 30% of equity market returns come from dividends - some parsing of the data shows 50+%.
So back to the ABCDs, that's
Archer-Daniels Midland (ADM)
Bunge (BG)
Cargill (private)
Louis Dreyfus
So, if you look at Cargill's investment say in Calysta Feedkind through this prism of just a microscopically small position for them to see if it turns into anything then you'll understand it's probably really risky to run and chase these types of ideas unless you are OK with having money sit around for a long while and spread the bets. The VF's in SF are in that position. Same thing with BASF/Evonik or Corbion/DHA Algaprime (bought from Bunge/Terravia) etc. They have so much money they can dribble it around and see which ideas sprout.
Has the board done all its homework to truly understand AMRN's environment though before looking to the next big source of EPA? I mean more than "big pharma" is going to buy AMRN. They may. Or it may take awhile and they do another share offering soon to finance the ramp-up in SGA next year. Who knows; I know I don't. I'm still trying to assess how much of a grind 2019-20 will be.
Supply issues that I see being more of an immediate potential concern than barren oceans = the master service agreements & AMR101 volumes from the CMOs (what is EACH plant's annual production capacity & based off what species of feedstock and which methods/reagents/solvents, etc? You can be sure if the CMOs end up not thinking they are compensated enough for AMR101 then there will be "supply" issues - they may blame sourcing feedstock, but is it really?? They'll come back in 2020 with higher manufacturing costs at a minimum = my own COGS calc goes from 24-25% on the recent June 2018 10Q on pg 41-42 to ? say another 2-4% increase then? Somebody could recheck that 10Q with me...). With rising interest rates, the dollar should remain strong though - so that will work in AMRN's favor. Also, these wouldn't be outlandish COGS for bio-tech, high - but, the CMOs are dealing with a naturally-sourced product. Will Wall St care to drill down? Or will they just look at "top-line" ratios...so my thought is you end up needing long term holders that truly understand these waters.
Still perhaps, the scarcity effect could be like for new Apple Iphones - it drives yet more demand because of all the free press regarding the "shortages." Then more people will call their doctors and ask about it thinking it must be a good thing so they want it, too. From a cold market perspective, this is for all intents and purposes a product re-launch polished up by the science.
We all have varying degrees of what makes us comfortable usually based either off our personal knowledge base or people we decide to put our faith in as a proxy for that personal knowledge.
The beauty of a group, such as this AMRN board (part of why I have been enjoying it so much), is that humans almost ALWAYS make better forecasts as a group and definitely when they work toward accuracy specifically in a Bayesian way. One of my favorite books is "Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction." By Philip Tetlock (there's a cheat sheet version off the HBS website as well and he runs a forecasting tournament as part of an ongoing experiment). Another "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman. Finally, "Diffusion of Innovations" by Everett Rogers. I'm always trying to improve my thinking, and have a long ways to go.
I live on Main Street so I'm mindful of Wall Street as if they were a door-to-door salesman, knowing their favorite adage "when the ducks quack, feed them" is not meant in a complimentary fashion. We're the ducks. I went to see Kevin O'Leary last week at the Seattle Center mainly so that I could tell my daughter since we like "The Shark Tank." She still laughs whenever she repeats "booby pack" from that one episode. Mr. Wonderful's speech was the same as what you could find on YouTube, with one difference where his slide deck wasn't updated - he said he's now moved from 30% in fixed income assets to 50%. He may not be worth Mark Cuban's $3.5B, but at $400m - its still interesting to me to hear what he's doing as a market indicator.
Long answer, eh?! -SK
BA: Of course it was.
I'd only add that Chanbond also knew the script in advance - that this was likely to be a move by the 13's interests - and Chanbond didn't care because going private - while not ideal to shareholders in UOIP, doesn't effect the patent valuation process itself. Chanbond couldn't be in the patent valuation industry and NOT know various plans of attack that the other side will launch. Rookies might not know, but these are grizzled veterans.
LT: You weight the SEP odds quite heavily in your model - I see that with your $5.00 estimate. Well-noted, thanks.
Scruff: Any chance you have all our estimates in Excel? If so, would you mind running both an AVG and Median on them? Also, a probability distribution (histogram) would be cool (maybe use as your bin ranges $.50 increments? Depending on which version of Excel you can find the charts features, etc.
JL: Thanks, I'll check it out. Sounds like the Indian author is like TC Boyle, Tom Robbins or John Irving.
It's on my bucket list to do a Kerala houseboat cruise. Incredible India.