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Autos and basic tech items (PC's, printers, etc..) are going down, EVERYTHING else is going up. I live in Florida, and the local paper just did a piece about how this area used to be a great place to live on the cheap. Their analysis of the change in the real cost of living for the average person paints a picture of extreme inflation - at the consumer level.
How the CPI can be this low is beyond me.
AMD and AAPL - The story behind the numbers... The pump is on, talking about big upside surprises, but what's really going on with their businesses? Look at the revenue numbers for each compared to the last 2 quarters.
________AMD__AAPL
Dec 04 .... 1.64b 3.5b
Mar 05 .... 1.23b 3.2b
This Q .... 1.26b 3.5b (on strength of super ipod sales)
Who else has come out with great earnings this quarter? ORCL? Their numbers came from the Peoplesoft merger, the rest of the software sector warned. Who else in the QQQQ or SMH? Are there any companies out there with improving revenues? Any companies out there making their number by any other means than cost-cutting? That ain't exactly a sustainable business model!
edit; I know the earnings release season is just beginning. I'm talking about pre-releases, warnings, guidance and expectations.
Is the whole tech sector treading water in wait of AAPL's report? I didn't think they were proxy-worthy anymore...
CSCO trying for the round trip back to 20 after the Cramer blessing that sent it down to 18.50. Hope he doesn't say anything about it today on his "show". I'm core long CSCO, and I don't want that crook screwing it up again! <g>
We're so close... A good ramp today in the SMH and QQQQ would have triggered a sell/short signal for me. Instead, we're flat, letting the short term oscillators reset off of overbought....
Of course, if we ramp hard tomorrow, that would not only give me my sell signal, but confirm the AJC indicator...
I can wait one more day.
My prediction has been for some range bound trading to start July, followed by a pattern of quick ramp ups and slow grind downs. I was looking for a local low in mid-July, and a bottom in mid August, and then a reversal of the pattern - sharp drops and slow grind ups - into the end of the year.
Now I'm thinking that the ramp up/grind down pattern has already begun. With prices starting at this higher level, it will take a bit longer for them to work their way back down to their eventual low. I'm starting to see the end of August as the time frame for the bottom...
Glad to see this agrees to some extent with your work.
I think this current ramp is about over. I'm short a couple of issues, and will add more today and tommorow. All IMHO
A harmonic convergence of CNBS contrary indications. First, AJC, and now Michael Metz - one of the original permabears -
has thrown in the towel and gone BULLISH!
If that ain't callin' a top, we ain't gonna get one!!!
Note- Metz makes his call with the Dow @ 10530, the NAZ at 2147, and the S&P at 1225. Let's see what happens now....
LJPC ??? Not sure what you're seeing. This thing was around a dollar when you brought it here with assurances that it was going to "move big". It's now at .80 with 75k shares traded... that's about $60,000 in total dollar trade volume.
I hope you haven't mortgaged the farm for this one...
You really have to wonder how these guys get away with some of the things they say. Just 1 week ago, Golub was featured in a SmartMoney.com article...
"Like many observers, Golub thinks that the market is going to have to grind out modest 6% to 8% annual returns for the next 5 to ten years."
And..
"Golub is equally unenthusiastic about tech stocks. "The only technology that is a growth area is the current technology," he observes. "The assumption on Wall Street is that whatever is hot will always be hot. But look at all the great inventions over the last century — farm equipment, electrical appliances, cars, planes and television sets. They are all value sectors today."
Now today he's pounding the table about how the public is wrong to be pessimistic about stocks...
Oh, by the way, Abby Joseph Cohen will be on CNBS today...
<<<< "I'm shocked at the level of apathy - perhaps even pessimism - about the market, given the current environment for stocks," said Jonathan Golub, a United States equity strategist at J. P. Morgan Funds. "The public has this thing really, really wrong." >>>
Somebody needs to tell Mr. Golub that his own company has predicted a ZERO % gain in earnings for the S&P next year....
Ok, no more work for me, I gotta start worrying about Dennis. HAGWE.
Short QQQQ at 37.74 - eom
<<< fear premium never left the market after 9/11 >>>
Interesting. That's what AJC said. I don't know how to measure a "fear premium", but I do know that the VIX and the bullish/bearish advisor ratio - among other indicators - have been screaming NO FEAR!
The action of the last few days looks like a short squeeze to me. The bears have to be unsettled by the market's resilience to... everything! The software sector is coughing up a hairball, and the Naz is up 31!
I'm looking for shorts, but I need to see some sign of exhaustion to this ramp. If this continues straight into the close, I'm not gonna be able to stop myself
QQQQ's at 38ish sounds tempting...
As we prepare to start the 5th trading day of H205...
You'd think the market would be reacting like crazy to all that's going on, but the actual change in the indices from their June close tell the story...
DJI : change from June close = + 27 (10302 vs 10275)
NAZ : change from June close = + 18 (2075 vs 2057)
SPY : change from June close = + .77 (119.95 vs 119.18)
QQQQ: change from June close = + .28 (37.06 vs 36.78)
A choppy, but ultimately flat open to the month, quarter and half. The direction has not yet been revealed....
<<< Got my eye on 4 other stocks and waiting for more pullback before jumping in. >>>
We agree. I too have a large cash position (just one big long and one small short) looking to deploy heavily long in the next several weeks.
Re: NEM - for a trade or a longer term hold? Do you think it will move with the market, counter to it, or just move on its own dynamics? Thanks in advance.
Bear, are you still at 90% cash? I may have missed it, but I don't remember you posting any new buys (or sells) since this;
Posted by: Bearmove
In reply to: None
Date:6/29/2005 10:19:05 AM
Post #of 406953
Sold all longs and locked in profits except for GERN. Raised
cash to 90%
Gap, and then what? Dippy's gonna be expecting a fill, I'm not sure we get it right away...
<<< Weird Wally Wednesday >>>
You gotta name for tomorrow's action? <g>.
First few days of 2H-05 are ripe for headfakes, divergences, and cross currents, and that's what we're getting. You still looking for a local top in August? I'm seeing a few more days of confusion/volatility, and then a mid-month dump before a run in mid/late August.
Your opinions appreciated....
Recent print on CSCO : 18.9883
I've never understood where an oddball price like that comes from - we're talking down to the hundredth of a cent on a stock that's not exactly illiquid !
<< The authors of the constitution didn't trust the judgement of the common man >>
Being a common man myself, I think the authors were pretty darn smart....
<<< Naz up 20, CSCO red, go figure>>>
Dilution in preparation for this blockbuster???
EMC shares rise on rumor it's a Cisco merger target
By Doris Frankel and Eric Auchard
Fri Jul 1, 2005 05:56 PM ET
CHICAGO/SAN FRANCISCO, July 1 (Reuters) - Data storage maker EMC Corp.'s (EMC.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares rose more than 3 percent on Friday in pre-holiday market speculation tied to a trade press column that argued the merits of a merger between EMC and network equipment leader Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) .
Fueling momentum in the rumor were options investors who seized on the talk of a potential mega-merger to bid up options to buy shares of data storage market leader EMC, traders said.
Trading was sparked by a column entitled "Cisco in talks to acquire EMC?" on SearchStorage.com, a technology industry analysis site, which speculated on whether Cisco might be considering a $43 billion acquisition of EMC.
"There are rumors that Cisco is considering a bid for EMC," said Jeff Shaw, chief options trader at Timber Hill, a division of Interactive Brokers. "People are placing cheap bets that the rumor may have some truth to it."
Spokesmen for Cisco and EMC declined to comment, citing policies against commenting on "rumors and speculation."
Industry analysts expressed doubt a deal was in the works.
"We cover this company fundamentally and we have a positive rating on EMC but believe the likelihood of Cisco buying EMC is fairly low," said Stacey Briere, chief options strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group.
"Cisco CEO John Chambers has told investors and analysts in a thousand different forums that such huge mergers would happen over his dead body and never on his watch (as leader)," Frank Dzubeck, president of Communication Network Architects said.
"All mergers like that fail in the technology business," Dzubeck said of Chamber's position on mega-mergers.
EMC shares closed up 46 cents, or 3.4 percent at $14.17 in New York Stock Exchange. Cisco closed down little changed on Friday, off 9 cents to $18.99 on Nasdaq.
On Friday, a combined total of 54,830 calls and 4,320 puts changed hands across the U.S. options exchanges, far outpacing EMC's average daily options volume of 10,381 contracts, according to market research firm Track Data. (Additional reporting by Eric Auchard in San Francisco and Sinead Carew in New York; Editing Bernard Orr)
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh97479_2005-07-01_21-56-23_n01...
You mention foreign markets and international money flow... The data shows that much of the recent buying of U.S. stocks has been done by foreign investors. Add that to the unusual economic readings and market behavior - of which you have done a fine job of chronicling - and it all adds up to large scale distribution.
I think the chickens come home to roost in '06, and then, many of your predictions will come true. But before that, Da Boyz will be selling into a nice, reassuringly bullish end of year rally - the final act of distribution.
In the meantime, they're not gonna fix what ain't broken, which means this summer will be more of the market doing the unexpected.
All IMHO, I reserve the right to be wrong and to change my outlook at any time...
The market always does the unexpected. Think back to the beginning of June, when calls for a down month were very much in the minority - yet that's what we got.
Now the longer term charts for the major indices show oversold oscillators, yet the actual bottoms usually lag by a week or two. Plus, the RSI readings are hovering around neutral...
I think July starts with some channeled choppiness, and then a good dump in the middle of the month to create fully oversold conditions. Then, after a brief relief rally, we get another fear spike down in late July/early August to shake out the weak hands and scoop up some stops before the market starts climbing a wall of worry to new highs by the end of the year.
On balance, July will be another down month. All IMHO.
June gonna be an up or down month? As of 10am June 30 -
Dow .... May close 10467.48 ... now 10407 ... down 60
Naz .... May close 2068.22 ... now 2073 ... up 5
S&P .... May close 1191.50 ... now 1202 ... up 10
QQQQ ... May close 38.08 ... now 37.14 ... down .94
SMH .... May close 34.31 ... now 33.95 ... down .36
Hey See Shasta, you out there?
Thought I'd bounce this off you, it's a repeat of what I'd heard/read before. It's long term bullish for NVLS's cost structure, but it still sounds like overcapacity which will be remedied by consolidation of manufacturing into the Tualatin plant. What happens to the other sites I don't know, but I still interpret this scenario as leading to layoffs.
Would love to hear your informed opinion on this...
CSFB noted that Novellus operates four plants, three in the western U.S. and one in Germany, and that while the Tualatin facility only accounts approximately 40% of the company's output, it could handle all manufacturing operations.
"Novellus has not articulated such a consolidation strategy--but we believe it is not unrealistic to expect some consolidation over the next two to three years, which could help the company improve operating efficiencies."
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/06/20/0620automarketscan11.html?partner=yahootix&referrer=
When the first big tech company warns, you'll get your panic selling <g>. First we gotta relieve some of the oversold readings on the longer term charts, preferably with a nice week long bounce that reassures Dippy that all is OK.
Then, bring on the panic !!
Covered QQQQ short at 36.76 (booked $1.45)
I too see oversold conditions on the longer term charts. I wouldn't be surprised to see the bounce start at 2:22 today!
Still short HPQ - about even on that.
edit: If QQQQ's dump to 36.35 ish, I'll play 'em long again.
Dow up 30, Naz flat, SMH down .15 with INTC up .10
Who's leading whom? This is a language I don't understand!
From the "Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics" Board Info;
Moderator: Zeev Hed
Assistants: None
Created: 5/12/2002 7:34:37 PM
Short term stock trading, Swing Trading, and sometimes even long term forecasts.
Not much volume on the IWOV pullback, and oscillators have swung all the way from extremely overbought to moderately oversold on this 1 week move, so I'm still positive.
But, I'm not looking at it from a short term trading stance. I'm a longer term bull on IWOV - looking for it to be up quite a bit from here by the end of the year.
I've had a "buy to cover" order at 36.86 all day. If it doesn't fill today, I'll try to grab the bottom of an early fear spike on Monday. Should get a bounce/pause to 38ish before the real dump comes. (QQQQ) IMHO
GE is looking sweet everywhere but in one segment - financial services - and I'm a little worried about that. Any hedgehog/derivative/currency/mortgage/mutual fund/etc.. blowup has a high probability of hitting them, possibly hard.
Plus, I'm baffled by the antics of one of GE's soldiers -Cramer - and his screaming bull call on tech (although I love his tout of my beloved CSCO). Is it too conspiritorial to wonder if Cramer is helping GE out of a bad trade...?
Durable goods report - Computers down 7%, add that to the terrible earnings reports from SLR, MU, even TIBX, and you've got a proxy for the tech sector. Soft patch indeed. This is going to be a bad quarter for a lot of tech companies.
Meanwhile, looking to cover my QQQQ short at 36.80ish in the next few days. Will re-establish on a bounce over 38 for a ride down to the "load the boat" bottom, which I still expect to occur in the late July-mid August time frame.
Still long CSCO for a couple of points, (will sell at 40+ in a couple of years <G>). Still underwater on my HPQ short.
JPMMWMMI - (just putting my money where my mouth is)
Great to have you "back"!
I have very high regard for your trading skills - they're top notch - it threw me off my game to see you get "cranky", and I ended up snapping back. Please accept my apologies.
Hey marketmaven, did you see this? Looks like someone agrees with our analysis of HPQ...
Market Pulse: Hewlett-Packard downgraded on valuation concerns
Wednesday June 22, 7:08 am ET
By Tomi Kilgore
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Hewlett-Packard was downgraded to neutral from buy at First Albany, due primarily to concerns over valuation. The stock closed up 3.2% at a 1 1/2-year high of $24.61, just shy of Analyst Joel Wagonfeld's previous $25 price target. The Dow industrials component had gained 20% since the end of April, vs. a 4% rise in the Dow. Wagonfeld also feels the reorganization that chief executive Mike Hurd has foreshadowed for the PC and peripherals maker will be "tumultuous," and thinks a continued strengthening in the U.S. dollar could hurt results, given that most of its revenue comes from overseas.
OK, I've got my confidence back...
Agreed. I believe there are fundamental and technical reasons for HPQ being overpriced. Here is my analysis....
This is historically HPQ's worst quarter. Last year they missed badly (.24 vs .31), and Hurd is guiding down. They won't make his number.
Margins are already lowest in the group, and they're entering a price war with DELL?? Ink sales are their only bright spot, and that's under multiple pressures.
65% of revenues come from outside the U.S. - weak demand and a strengthening dollar are a double whammy on that.
Another round of layoffs coming - not good for morale.
Todd Bradley is a bad choice. His work at Palm and Gateway proves he can't take a company to the next level against strong competition.
And HPQ has strong competition. I view them as a big loser in the tech market share battle as the collaboration of EMC-CSCO-
DELL appears to be banging on all cylinders.
Hurd's got big plans for down the road, but right now he's just cutting costs, hunkering down, adopting a conservative wait and see approach. He brings in a mediocre guy to run the
flagging PC side of the business, and - despite the big plans - has HPQ currently returning to their old school model of running their Printing/Imaging business.
There's a lot of "hope" in the current analyst opinion on HPQ - Hurd's getting the honeymoon treatment. When the smoke clears, folks are gonna see that until/if/when Hurd makes some great moves, (and discounting the short term savings effect of layoffs), revenues/earnings/margins/market share/morale/stock price are going down....
I could well be wrong and lose money on this call. C'est La Vie! I just don't understand why those who disagree have to lose their temper over it...
Wrong on HPQ - that would be me. But Permabear? I was CLOWN MEGA LONG from August to December with CSCO, EMC, XXIA, FFIV as traders (also had a few core holds.)
I went to all cash except for CSCO from January to mid April. I went "POUND THE TABLE" long then with EMC, XXIA, NETL, MIPS, AIRN, unloading all profitably (but holding CSCO) as JUNE approached.
I went short the QQQQ at 38.21 at the beginning of June (still profitable), and short HPQ recently - a bad call so far.
Look at a six month chart. I'm pretty damn proud of my top and bottom calls and proud of my individual stock selections.
And you sneer at me with your lousy attitude and call me a "permabear" ???
Poor form, Bearmove....
ISRL ?
From Yahoo - Share Statistics ISRL
Average Volume (3 month): 6,781.82
Average Volume (10 day): 16,000
Shares Outstanding: 2.72M
Whew! I bet this thread could gang up and buy the whole company!
....or is that the idea?
Perfect example of how trading on news and analyst ratings will kill you: INTC runs up for 6 weeks on nothing. Then comes the mid-Q update, the Apple news, and lots of upgrades and positive comments - all of which should propel the stock higher, right?
But "somehow", the stock stalls.. How could that be?
And now today, CNBS - "baffled" that INTC is not responding to the great environment - says there's now concern about INTC capacity constraints.
And down she goes.
Just like clockwork.....