Agreed. I believe there are fundamental and technical reasons for HPQ being overpriced. Here is my analysis....
This is historically HPQ's worst quarter. Last year they missed badly (.24 vs .31), and Hurd is guiding down. They won't make his number.
Margins are already lowest in the group, and they're entering a price war with DELL?? Ink sales are their only bright spot, and that's under multiple pressures.
65% of revenues come from outside the U.S. - weak demand and a strengthening dollar are a double whammy on that.
Another round of layoffs coming - not good for morale.
Todd Bradley is a bad choice. His work at Palm and Gateway proves he can't take a company to the next level against strong competition.
And HPQ has strong competition. I view them as a big loser in the tech market share battle as the collaboration of EMC-CSCO-
DELL appears to be banging on all cylinders.
Hurd's got big plans for down the road, but right now he's just cutting costs, hunkering down, adopting a conservative wait and see approach. He brings in a mediocre guy to run the
flagging PC side of the business, and - despite the big plans - has HPQ currently returning to their old school model of running their Printing/Imaging business.
There's a lot of "hope" in the current analyst opinion on HPQ - Hurd's getting the honeymoon treatment. When the smoke clears, folks are gonna see that until/if/when Hurd makes some great moves, (and discounting the short term savings effect of layoffs), revenues/earnings/margins/market share/morale/stock price are going down....
I could well be wrong and lose money on this call. C'est La Vie! I just don't understand why those who disagree have to lose their temper over it...
