The market always does the unexpected. Think back to the beginning of June, when calls for a down month were very much in the minority - yet that's what we got.
Now the longer term charts for the major indices show oversold oscillators, yet the actual bottoms usually lag by a week or two. Plus, the RSI readings are hovering around neutral...
I think July starts with some channeled choppiness, and then a good dump in the middle of the month to create fully oversold conditions. Then, after a brief relief rally, we get another fear spike down in late July/early August to shake out the weak hands and scoop up some stops before the market starts climbing a wall of worry to new highs by the end of the year.
On balance, July will be another down month. All IMHO.
