Flying high with AYSI
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fick,
Although we recognize it is speculative at this point, thanks for sharing your logic. I hope you are right on and it leads to rewards for all of us ASPN shareholders.
Thanks,
Mat
hweb re:APES
Yes, and thanks for recommending it. I bought more early, sold most for a small profit, but I still have 5K and .75/share is great. Nice prediction, you can't expect to get it right and be right on timing. They probably didn't consider the purchase until after reading your post on RB. They have probably just been doing the negotiating and DD for the last 9 months.
Mat
BW: Great news, thanks for posting the information. CZE is clearly making systematic progress and I look forward to their next earnings report. Surely the pps will reflect the progress in the near future.
Mat
I couldn't resist and bought a bit more at $5.65. Continued successful drilling and increase in production will be realized in pps eventually.
As far as recent criticism of PRs and timing, ASPN did an excellent job last fall during the Hurricane season and I think the tide was against them now regardless. I do like the typical practice of following the quarterly PR with drilling news. It didn't work this time, but I believe it is a good technique. Best of luck to all.
Mat
I guess I will go with March 1st at 3:23 am
Thanks,
Mat
fickster0,
Darn those decimal points. You are right, glad I showed my work so others could see any mistakes. I like the right number better.
BW,
I believe at least part of the difference in your estimate is the fact that the profit margin is higher than in the past and production is a bit higher than I had calculated. If an estimate is wrong it is always better to be low than high.
Mat
Based upon the report of 2,189 MCF through December and the increase in sales of 1750 MCFd (536 Aspen)reported on 1/17 and 140 MCFd (30 Aspen) reported on 1/23 we should see a minimum increase in production of 2.6% (566/2189)for the months of February and March. Not a huge amount, but certainly good addition for the first month of the year.
Mat
Nice quarter, earnings were a bit higher than I expected. Hopefully we will hear some more good news on winter drilling.
Mat
Dejour to Raise $6.4 million Brokered Flow Through Financing
2/6/06
Dejour Enterprises Ltd. (TSX-V: DJE/OTC:DJEEF) Shares Issued: 39,482,822 Last Close: 2/03/2006 - $1.56
VANCOUVER, Feb. 6, 2006 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX) --
Robert L. Hodgkinson, Chairman & CEO, announces Dejour Enterprises Ltd. (the Company) has entered into an agreement with Pacific International Securities Inc., as lead agent (the "Agent"), for a brokered private placement of up to 4 million flow through shares, at $1.60 per unit for gross proceeds of up to $6.4 million (the "Offering"). The offering is scheduled to close on February 28, 2006.
Dejour will pay the Agent a commission of 6.0% of the gross proceeds raised, in cash or, in whole or in part, in non-flow through common shares of the Company at $1.60 per share.
At the closing of the Offering, the Agent will be granted compensation options equal in number to 8.0% of the number of shares sold under the Offering at an exercise price of $1.65 for one common share. The compensation options may be exercised at any time and from time to time for a period of 18 months following the date of closing.
The private placement is subject to regulatory and TSX Venture Exchange approval. All securities issued pursuant to the financing will be subject to a four month hold period commencing from the date of closing.
Use of funds will primarily be for its Canadian exploration programs for the Company's uranium properties in Saskatchewan's Athabasca Basin and selected oil and gas projects. The flow through funds raised from this Offering will be Canadian exploration expenses (as defined in the Income Tax Act) and will be renounced for the 2006 taxation year.
About Dejour Enterprises Ltd.
Dejour Enterprises Ltd. is a micro-cap Canadian energy company developing high impact exploration and development opportunities in the current energy super cycle. The Company's focus is uranium and oil & gas. The Company is listed on the TSX Venture Exchange under the symbol (TSX-V:DJE). Refer to www.dejour.com for company details or contact the Office of Investor Relations at investor@dejour.com.
The TSX Venture Exchange does not accept responsibility for the adequacy
or accuracy of this news release.
TGA: TransGlobe Energy Corporation Announces Successful Development Well in Yemen
TransGlobe Energy Corporation ("TransGlobe" or the "Company") (TSX:TGL) (AMEX:TGA) announces another successful development well on Block S-1 in the Republic of Yemen.
Block S-1, Yemen (25.0% working interest)
An Nagyah #19, which commenced drilling on January 9th, 2006, reached a total depth of 1,705 meters and was completed as a producing oil well after flowing at a stabilized rate of 3,226 barrels of light (43 degree API) oil per day and 1.6 million cubic feet of gas per day at a flowing pressure of 500 psi on a 48/64 inch choke.
The An Nagyah #19 well encountered the Lam A sandstone reservoir and was completed in a 266 meter horizontal section. The well is now being pipeline connected to the An Nagyah facilities.
The drilling rig is preparing to move to the next drilling location at An Nagyah #20. The An Nagyah #20 well is planned as an 850 meter horizontal well in the Lam A sandstone of the An Nagyah field, between vertical producers An Nagyah #5 and An Nagyah #7 in the western portion of the field.
OT Doc,
I don't recall reading many posts from you in the past, but your attack of SK is out of line. The work he puts in for the benefit of the rest of us is monumental, and your sarcasm and preaching are really over the top. He provided you with his technical basis, certainly consistent with his past posts, so if you don't like it go ahead and keep it to yourself. By the way, for those of us who are heavily invested in ASPN, your jab was also out of line. I am sure BSIC is a good stock, but so is ASPN and SK gave you his basis for the comments. I certainly agree ASPN may be a bit overvalued based upon past results, but we will see how the winter drilling and NG sales go in the immediate future. Best of luck to you and your investing in the future.
Mat
FYI, I have updated the IBOX with the information in today's PR. Nothing earthshattering, but still good to know.
Mat
FYI, I updated the ibox with the information from the January 17 PR. I assume the last two wells (WGU#15-10 and the street #1-3) are not producing yet, although I certainly don't understand the delay. Since Merril #31-2 is more "shallow", hopefully we hear some more information in another month or so. It will be very interesting to see the production numbers for the last quarter.
Mat
Aspen Exploration Commences Gas Sales
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060117/0106499.html
Aspen Exploration Commences Gas Sales From Seventh New Well Drilled in 2005
Tuesday January 17, 11:05 am ET
Announces Commencement of 2006 Winter Drilling Program
DENVER, CO--(MARKET WIRE)--Jan 17, 2006 -- Aspen Exploration Corporation (OTC BB:ASPN.OB - News), with offices in Bakersfield, California, and Denver, Colorado, announced today the commencement of gas sales from the Kalfsbeek #1-13 well, located in the Sacramento Valley gas province of northern California.
ADVERTISEMENT
The Kalfsbeek #1-13 well located in the Buckeye Gas Field, Colusa County, California, was drilled to a depth of 8,800 feet and encountered gas pay in several intervals in the Forbes formation. Several of these Forbes intervals were perforated and tested gas on a 1/4 inch choke at a flow rate of 2,909 MCFPD with a flowing tubing pressure of 2,005 psig. Gas sales commenced on January 13th at a flow rate of 1,750 MCFPD with a flowing tubing pressure of 2,500 psig. Aspen has a 30.625% operated working interest in this well.
Aspen has commenced the drilling of the Merrill #31-2 well, located in the Malton Black Butte Field, Tehama County, California. This well is being drilled as an acceleration well to Aspen's Merrill #31-1 well, and is targeting the Kione formation at depths ranging from 2,000 feet to 2,450 feet. The Merrill #31-1 encountered approximately 200 feet of potential gas pay and is currently producing from just one of the numerous lower Forbes pay zones. It could take many years for these lower zones to be depleted before the shallow Kione formation (Merrill #31-2 target) is perforated. The Merrill #31-2 will also be evaluating future horizontal drilling targets.
Other wells planned for the "winter season" include the deepening of an existing well and the drilling of a horizontal underbalanced lateral in an existing well in the Denverton Creek Field in Solano County, the drilling of a horizontal underbalanced well in the West Grimes Field in Colusa County, and the drilling of a deep, high potential oil well in Kern County.
Aspen drilled ten successful gas wells out of ten attempts in 2004 for a 100% success rate, and nine gas wells out of ten attempts in 2005. During the last 5 years, Aspen has participated in the drilling of 34 operated wells, 30 of which were completed as gas wells, and 4 dry holes which were plugged and abandoned, a success rate of 88%. Aspen currently operates 53 gas wells and has non-operated interests in 15 additional wells in the Sacramento Valley of northern California, and has an exciting drilling program planned for 2006. Gas prices in northern California (PG&E Citygate Price), which Aspen has been paid for its gas, have been in the range of $8.00 per MMBTU to $10.50 per MMBTU for the past three months.
Did anyone listen to the Bob Brinker show on Saturday? There was an interesting interview with James Dines talking about gold and uranium. Any thoughts?
I know there was some talk about Uranium stocks on VMC awhile back. Is anyone following any that look timely right now?
Does anyone subscribe to the Dines letter? Is it worthwhile? What are some of the stocks he is currently recommending?
Thanks,
Mat
Congrats CWS and thanks to all that made it possible. Despite trailing the lead pack it was heartening to hang out in the middle of such an august group. VMC has certainly been profitable to me and I look forward to continued positive returns. I was far better prepared for PSL1 than PSL 2, but I plan to roll the dice.
Mat
Barry,
Well, EYDY is almost non-existent these days. I have sold about half of my holdings and plan to sell another 25% in the next few weeks. I may buy back in the new year if there is a good reason, but I have lost faith and I know there are other better places for my money. I have ignored the warning signs of no-news and things dragging on before and I regreted it in the end. Best of luck to you and I will continue to hold a small position in EYDY. Happy Holidays and I hope your investments treat you well.
Mat
MDF: Well, an overall painful day. I did put in an order for 1200 shares and got them at $1.78. I am hoping today is our low point, although I know MDF will not be going anywhere fast for another 6 months or so. As long as there is no fundamental change, it should be a slow steady increase in members until breakeven and then things get really good.
Mat
Len and SSK,
Thanks for your efforts on this. I know I have been in the middle of the pack for PSL1, although I consider that to be pretty decent considering the competition. VMC has been good to me and I look forward to participating in PSL2. The only drawback is now I am on the hook for DD on 6 stocks that are ready to rock. I have found over time I am better at finding value over time and I am not as well versed at finding 6 great picks over a particular time period. Thanks for the PSL learning experience.
Mat
Len: Brinker
Interesting analysis, but you aren't giving him credit for the fact that he is assuming most investors have a steady stream of income to add to their position over time. I see his recommendations as "buying on dips" with new money and not necessarily dollar cost averaging all the time. As you know, he does not think highly of the "buy and hold" crowd. I expect the reason he doesn't call intermediate sell opportunities is because he knows that would completely confuse his audience, most of whom are not as knowledgable as the people who read this board. I think that is consistent with his mantra on not owning individual stocks, another thing most of us don't follow, and his contention that microcaps are pure speculation. Obviously, I do not follow his advice in most areas, but I find his analysis of the economy and direction of the market to be extremely useful. My perspective is that we are in for a small advance above the secular high and then I will start to re-weight my portfolio. If Brinker makes a call before that, I will re-evaluate.
Mat
Len,
Did you buy back in today? If not, it looks like some of those who follow your lead are jumping in today. I did some trading in the $8-9 range, but I am loaded up for another decent run over the winter. I wouldn't mind a selling opportunity before the end of the year to diversify a bit, can you buy a few hundred K shares to drive things up for me? LOL
Mat
BW, nice estimate, it is nice to be a shareholder with so much potential over the winter.
Mat
blibros RE: ASPN, I believe the total MMBTU obligation is for the entire production of ASPN wells, although ASPN only has rights to an average of about 21% of production. Therefore, you have to take the 6500 MBTU/day advertised in recent PRs for added production and apply the ASPN portion (~21%) to get the production that will add to ASPN's bottom line.
Mat
I agree that new wells were not included, and it looks like the 1Q is flat compared to 4Q04 (146400 vs. 145500 mdfd). Comparing against the 1Q04 was favorable (146k vs. 130K) as is discussed in the 10Q, but that is not particularly useful going forward. If the recently stated 6500 mcfd (assuming 21% ASPN) is available throughout 2Q06 (not including the last couple of wells that have not been reported operational), we should see ~120K mcfd of increased production (6500*90*.21). That should be conservative since a couple of wells are in excess of .21 for ASPN. Personally, I am a bit disappointed in the revenues and production for 1Q06, but as long as we do have a winter, NGAS prices don't completely collapse, and the drilling success rate continues, we should be happy in another 3 months. Certainly no reason to sell IMHO. I would certainly be interested in other analysis of the 10Q.
Thanks,
Mat
Barry,
Sorry I haven't responded, but things have been crazy. Yes, I am still in EYDY, although I did put in a limit order in the low .30s for a small percentage. I only sold 1,000. The 8K tells me things are not moving forward as quickly or as well as they would like. I plan to hold on and hope for the best. If we get back in the .30s I will probably sell 10-20% and monitor. Best of luck to you.
Mat
CZE, FYI
Choice Announces Second Quarter Financials
10/27/05
CALGARY, ALBERTA, Oct 27, 2005 (CCNMatthews via COMTEX) --
Choice Resources Corp. (TSX VENTURE:CZE):
Six months ended August 31, 2005
President's message:
For the six month period;
- Net debt inclusive of working capital deficiency is reduced by 75% to $4.31 million
- Bank Debt has been reduced 95% to $0.65 million.
- Interest expense has been reduced 49%
- The Pincher Creek horizontal well was spud in August and completion operations are underway.
- The Company sold 25% of the Pincher Creek field for $6.1 million.
- Earnings are $1.5 million or 3 cents per share.
- Cash flow from operations is up 8% to $4.7 million and on target at 9 cents per share.
- Production averaged 1,360 boe/d after the sale of a non-core property, essentially flat with the previous year period. (Pincher Creek had significant downtime due to a pipeline repair)
- Operating expenses are $3.2 million compared to $3.1 million (Expenses for the period would be reduced 10% without the one time expense of a pipeline repair).
- G&A has increased to$0.79 from $0.59 reflecting the addition of operations staff and an increased effort to significantly increase the play inventory.
- Three development wells and one exploratory well were drilled during the period.
Debt reduction combined with the drilling of the Pincher Creek horizontal well was the primary focus for the last three months. Progress on exploration was also achieved as the Company made plans for an active winter drilling season with drilling of 6 high impact exploratory wells in the Snipe/Wallace area (average working interest will be approximately 50%). The weather continued to cause a delay in the testing and completion of some wells. A 3D seismic program in the Viking area was planned and will be implemented for Q3. The Company expects to drill up to four wells after completion of this program. (average working interest will be 85%)
The Corporation finalized plans to drill a horizontal well at Pincher Creek and the well was spudded in early August. The capital interest is 19% with a before payout interest in production of 30% and an after payout interest of 52.5%. The well as of this report was being prepared for completion and testing after encountering natural gas.
Production was down slightly during the period at 1,360 boe/d after the sale of a 60 b/d property in December last year and repairing a pipeline at Pincher Creek that resulted in the field being shut in for 5 weeks. This was an unusual event and other parts of the field were tested for integrity with no significant corrosion present. Production came back on stream in the third week of August and, while average production was reduced for the period, the flush production combined with increased prices, had a minimal effect on cash flow.
Cash flow at 9 cents per share is essentially on target with internal projections. Significant price increases and approximately 200 bpd behind pipe will be added in the near term to increase cash flow for the remainder of the year. The estimate for the Pincher Creek well is not included in this number and will not be estimated until the well is completed and tested.
Our exploration play inventory continues to grow as land and prospects were added. The Company purchased a partner's interest in the Snipe Lake and Wallace of approximately 20% area for $2 million. The Company's interest in this area ranges from 20% to 70% and a minimum of 6 wells will be drilled this winter. An election was made with Vecta Energy Corp. to drill an Elkton test well at Chambers. This well is expected to spud prior to yearend with a Choice working interest of 25%. (The program uses proprietary acquisition, processing and interpretation).
At the Snipe Lake area, subsequent to the quarter end, road construction was completed into one well to provide year round access for production and to provide access for further drilling opportunities. This well was brought on stream in October at 50 boe/d.
Results to date are excellent and while weather kept production from increasing, several new plays were tested and have set up several exploitation opportunities. Enclosed are the financial statements. Please refer to the associated notes filed on Sedar (in particular the notes to the annual audited statements), the operations summary and the management discussion and analysis.
Gordon D. Harris
President and CEO
FYI
Choice Announces Second Quarter Financials
10/27/05
CALGARY, ALBERTA, Oct 27, 2005 (CCNMatthews via COMTEX) --
Choice Resources Corp. (TSX VENTURE:CZE):
Six months ended August 31, 2005
President's message:
For the six month period;
- Net debt inclusive of working capital deficiency is reduced by 75% to $4.31 million
- Bank Debt has been reduced 95% to $0.65 million.
- Interest expense has been reduced 49%
- The Pincher Creek horizontal well was spud in August and completion operations are underway.
- The Company sold 25% of the Pincher Creek field for $6.1 million.
- Earnings are $1.5 million or 3 cents per share.
- Cash flow from operations is up 8% to $4.7 million and on target at 9 cents per share.
- Production averaged 1,360 boe/d after the sale of a non-core property, essentially flat with the previous year period. (Pincher Creek had significant downtime due to a pipeline repair)
- Operating expenses are $3.2 million compared to $3.1 million (Expenses for the period would be reduced 10% without the one time expense of a pipeline repair).
- G&A has increased to$0.79 from $0.59 reflecting the addition of operations staff and an increased effort to significantly increase the play inventory.
- Three development wells and one exploratory well were drilled during the period.
Debt reduction combined with the drilling of the Pincher Creek horizontal well was the primary focus for the last three months. Progress on exploration was also achieved as the Company made plans for an active winter drilling season with drilling of 6 high impact exploratory wells in the Snipe/Wallace area (average working interest will be approximately 50%). The weather continued to cause a delay in the testing and completion of some wells. A 3D seismic program in the Viking area was planned and will be implemented for Q3. The Company expects to drill up to four wells after completion of this program. (average working interest will be 85%)
The Corporation finalized plans to drill a horizontal well at Pincher Creek and the well was spudded in early August. The capital interest is 19% with a before payout interest in production of 30% and an after payout interest of 52.5%. The well as of this report was being prepared for completion and testing after encountering natural gas.
Production was down slightly during the period at 1,360 boe/d after the sale of a 60 b/d property in December last year and repairing a pipeline at Pincher Creek that resulted in the field being shut in for 5 weeks. This was an unusual event and other parts of the field were tested for integrity with no significant corrosion present. Production came back on stream in the third week of August and, while average production was reduced for the period, the flush production combined with increased prices, had a minimal effect on cash flow.
Cash flow at 9 cents per share is essentially on target with internal projections. Significant price increases and approximately 200 bpd behind pipe will be added in the near term to increase cash flow for the remainder of the year. The estimate for the Pincher Creek well is not included in this number and will not be estimated until the well is completed and tested.
Our exploration play inventory continues to grow as land and prospects were added. The Company purchased a partner's interest in the Snipe Lake and Wallace of approximately 20% area for $2 million. The Company's interest in this area ranges from 20% to 70% and a minimum of 6 wells will be drilled this winter. An election was made with Vecta Energy Corp. to drill an Elkton test well at Chambers. This well is expected to spud prior to yearend with a Choice working interest of 25%. (The program uses proprietary acquisition, processing and interpretation).
At the Snipe Lake area, subsequent to the quarter end, road construction was completed into one well to provide year round access for production and to provide access for further drilling opportunities. This well was brought on stream in October at 50 boe/d.
Results to date are excellent and while weather kept production from increasing, several new plays were tested and have set up several exploitation opportunities. Enclosed are the financial statements. Please refer to the associated notes filed on Sedar (in particular the notes to the annual audited statements), the operations summary and the management discussion and analysis.
Gordon D. Harris
President and CEO
Ibox updated with the PR from today. I am surprised ASPN went down based upon this news. I am tempted to buy more.
Mat
All hail the queen and her drones! Let the peasants rejoice and be merry!
Seriously, thanks to all of you that make the VM suite of boards an invaluable asset and learning forum.
Mat
Meaning of Energy Trust?
I have heard past discussions of Canadian energy companies becoming trusts once they reach a certain size. I haven't invested in these types of vehicles in the past and I am not familiar with them. Can anyone provide a discussion of how these trusts work and how they are different from a company? I looked at the 10Q for BPT and I see they certainly report differently. I am not interested in investing, however a family member asked my opinion of BPT and I am ill prepared to respond.
Thanks,
Mat
Barry,
I have not given up on EYDY, although I am pretty unhappy with how long the merger is taking. I am also surprised we haven't heard anything on these boards about the annual meeting. I have resigned myself to wait until the information is available and then make a decision at that point. Glad to see the small blip up today.
Mat
FPP: Quite the rocket! I sold 1/3, but I only had a paltry few hundred shares. Too bad I didn't plow more ASPN profits into FPP instead of back into ASPN at $7.75. I recently recommended FPP or ASPN to my dad and fortunately he choose FPP at just over $4 for 1K shares. He is very excited now and hopefully is selling half today.
Is Rival the next on the launching pad? I was smart enough to buy a few thousand shares of Rival. I am tempted to buy more at the current price.
The grounds crew must still be working on Choice since it isn't doing much, yet...
Mat
Bobwins,
Thanks for updating the ibox with current numbers. I couldn't resist and bought some more at $7.75 for safe keeping through the winter. Based upon the VM discussion, it looks like FPP would have been the better choice.
Mat
FPP on a tear. Wish I had bought more. It would be nice to see Rival and Choice follow suit.
Mat
Based upon current production and the information from the 10K, I think we are at a pretty reasonable pps for now. It looks like the recent success more than doubles the 1704Mcfd average for 2004 with addition of ~2200Mcfd for the drilling so far. I am certainly no expert, but using a 10% decrease from Q04 for production and addition of the new drilling results, my estimates for the quarter that ends this week would be revenues of ~1.5M and .08/shr for Q1 using an average price of $9/Mcf.
Assuming no additional production from the additional well drilling that is in progress, I would estimate next quarter revenues of $2.52M and .13/shr.
If the rest of drilling for 05 is great or NGAS prices continue to rise, then this is a good buying price. I sold just over 10% recently at $9 and admitedly I am struggling with whether to buy back in or diversify. A nice consolidation through November and some good drilling news would be great for all.
Mat
Bass Energy in Akron
Mat
Kipp,
Hats off to you for your energy moves. I have gradiose ideas in the future, but for now we unplugged our extra refridgerator/freezer and consolidated last month. Saved a couple of kw-hr/day. We have also changed our driving habits a bit.
My longer term goals are to invest in a grid-tied PV solar array on our home to supply ~50% of our electricity and purchase a hybrid vehicle in a couple of years. If VM continue for another year or so I may be able to pursue this vision sooner rather than later. Unfortunately, PV is not a good return on investment at current costs and energy prices, but in the long run I know it is the right thing to do.
How well does the on-demand water heating work? Do you have one for each faucet? Is it immediately hot?
Mat
Kipplingers - Part deux,
Another article discussed the boom in oil/gas drilling in unexpected areas because drilling some of these smaller areas is now profitable. They don't discuss any darlings from this board, but it mentions Bass Energy. The article focuses on the econonic impacts of royalties on the surrounding community to these new wells. It was a short article, but interesting and adds exposure to the little guys such as the ones we all know and love. Happy investing.
Mat
Kiplingers - Microcaps
Does anyone else receive Kiplingers? The October issue has a couple of interesting articles. One is about microcaps and it had some interesting information. It does not differentiate VM, but does say "Micro Caps have become very, very popular. This is now the chic place to invest." Chic is not the first term I think of when I think of this group LOL. Shrewd, maybe...Cutting edge, possibly...Smart, definitely...
Anyway, the article states that the largest decile of companies returned 11% on average from 1926 to 2004 while the smallest decile earned 22%. It discusses the increased risk and how hard it is for any fund of any size to work in this area because of liquidity and risk. One stock is discussed, KTII and a number of funds are referenced, OBMCX, PRCGX, WEMMX. Finally, it recommends no more than 5% of your portfolio in microcaps. My exposure is closer to 40%, but the risk is certainly there. Just thought I would share the article with the board and inform you that you are now officially fashionable!
Mat
ASPN, I just updated the ASPN ibox with the latest well drilling results for your viewing pleasure. It is certainly a pleasant set of production calculations.
Mat