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What you write is correct
The real answer is that the data services provide the names and amounts of shares held but research into those entities is required to truly know that entities trading strategies. This is particularly true of 13f filing versus NPORT filing of mutual funds whereby their overall strategy is in the prospectus.
Basically as per his modus operandi this lack of concrete data is in his realm of turning unknowns into negative narrative.
Well show us again the current numbers of Refinitiv's breakdown of 13f filers and their assumptions of active versus passive institutional investors.
We must use different definitions of which entities are "non-indexed" I disagree.
This also displays the weakness of using institutional ownership as a factor to be long or short.
"1 digits percentage numbers"
When we started the institutional ownership was ZERO.
MM's and the index funds primary owners agreed. But, with some added breadth among smaller hedge funds and family offices and that represents more than 1% you claim.
My daughter has a similar tendency toward exaggeration as you. ;)
Active insty ownership is in 1 digits percentage numbers, so absolutely no support for $AVXL SP from that angle.
You have made a fair analysis of the risks and that sentiment is definitely reflected in the share price.
Bravo for speaking direct and clearly.
$AVXL is in friggin the riskiest asset class out there microcap biotech. It's history and origin story as we've discussed accounts for the low institutional ownership numbers and the largest owners are the index funds and the Market Makers.
Those who agree with risks, but need downside protection should investigate a option collar strategy, but they will miss out on the big payday.
Stupid question, but how do you post a picture? or Which websites a have easy to create charts and then post a link to replicate?
Some of us are good at painting a picture with words. 123Tom is particularly good at that. I can read his comments and visualize it well. I don't really have such skills.
Technically I believe the MJFF is the entity doing the financing and the "Shake it Up Foundation" will be doing the actual work down in Australia. Also, I believe the Shake it up Foundation is also supported by Australian government grants.
I've done some fundraising for both entities and I'm very excited to see them get started.
Quotes from the 10-Q are now FUD? LOL!!!
Oh Georgejjl you are the boards worst enemy yet don't seem self aware enough to understand how or why. LOL
Here are some direct quotes from the 10Q which may help. Of course jackass Geoegjjl yelled "FUD" It's the official SEC financial filing you dumbass that's not FUD... LOL!!!!
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172639009
I can tell you that financial wise Dr. M has done an outstanding job navigating $AVXL from near bankruptcy while trading on the OTC to cleaning up the reporting and capital structure to uplist and ascend to the top tier of NASDAQ.
Now as far as trial result reporting which is a completely different arena It's my understanding the "odds ratio" method of reporting of the AD was not standard and for the Rett readouts the use of RQBQ AUC and anchored to the CGI were also non-standard.
So either $AVXL is a standard faire bullshit biotech selling worthless paper through the equity financing agreement with LPC, or it's not, that is yet to be determined with the next batch of readouts.
Investment wise I tell the very, very, few people I recommend $AVXL to anticipate it being worthless.
I have always enjoyed integrating T/A with my larger macro economic views to maximize returns. Also, I've been an extensive $AVXL covered call seller and T/A helps me a lot in sorting out the magnitude and time part of the equation.
Looking forward to a troll free zone to chat here.
Hey there team T/A apparently I posted here once back in 2017. Nice to see you folks here.
I've been in $AVXL since 2014 and is currently my largest speculative holding. I worked at Schwab for 19 years from 1994 to 2013 in many roles including High Net Trading team broker and manager, then toward the end, as a financial compliance manager and specialized risk manager overseeing the highest risk option accounts. I just recently retired and shut down my financial "consulting and education" business where I operated on a thin line between needing a securities license or not for close friends and family.
As far as investing goes, I'm now a boring ass well diversified across and within asset classes type with an obsession with $AVXL.
The $AVXL board waxes and wanes with good posters, but T/A is definitely a niche not everyone appreciates it usefulness.
At the rate the biotechnology sector is laying people off, $AVXL should be able to secure some good talent from many sources.
The layoff tracker is grim: https://www.biospace.com/article/biospace-layoff-tracker-2023-athenex-shutters-facility-cuts-staff/
Are we discussing our opinions on what is factoring into the market price or are we here to stroke off to our confirmation biases?
I'm simply stating that to the MARKET, the WGT tone has not taken hold.
Regardless of the details, the results as read out thus far have been completely discounted by the market and that's not FUD, it's reality.
There are multiple components that have influence upon a company's share price. $AVXL's share price is also subject to valuations granted similar companies within the same sector for example the $XBI.
IMO, the only factor than can break $AVXL from the "current challenging risk adverse market" is validation of it's claims by 3rd parties (i.e. peer reviewed publication) and/or presentation of such with "standard measures" as apparently the "odds ratio" is not impressive enough to warrant a break away from the doldrums of the sector.
The $XBI and $AVXL are again WEAK and seeking price stability most likely at a support level at ~ $75 and $7.50 respectively.
Well that chart sure went to crap fast. LOL!
Tough day for the $XBI too.
So will market conditions create a flag or a pennant this time?
Recognia, an automated "tea leave reader" for technical analysis patterns, called out a "Megaphone Bottom" with target $9.80-$10
Could get interesting
Citadel is a market maker, they may be long or short securities in the course of business and not a "shareholder" in the same sense as an investor.
Is Citadel a shareholder here?
Yes, an upward move on big volume followed by a downward retracement on lower volume is bullish.
Even when you know your lessons well, sometimes the market will hand you you own head on a platter.
I had 1/2 of my large ~$3 cost basis position called away at $7.50 just as the first rally to $15, then $25+ happened in 2021. I remained the consummate professional, but that stung. And best of all my folly was all documented here on iHub. LOL!
I used to use covered call writing extensively back in the day for income and to goose up returns at the risk of lost opportunity. But, I was neutral bullish and the strategy made sense until the AD sector became a shiny object for retail covid cash traders doing crazy things to the market.
Demand surge was short lived, then volume slowed to allow for T/A based MM trading dynamics to take over resulting in testing of the retracement levels.
I was probably not being clear enough or added enough context, but I the point I was trying to make was institutional level market participants and Market Makers who short shares have a supply/demand of shares that operates behind the scenes of which every share held in a margin account applies to.
"I want to know how hedge funds can, without the cooperation of shareholders (bas excepted), can drive the stock price down. What are the mechanics of this."
The answer is well beyond the scope of this thread, but zero "shareholder" cooperation is needed and a big part of the understanding answer requires knowledge on how "regulation T", share hypothecation/rehypothecation, and other rules relating to shorting stock are understood.
With proper training, sometimes those kids with a gun become Marksmen.
Options are awesome and powerful tools when used correctly.
The limitations have been pointed out, none of the recommendations and changes have been codified into the rules. Hence my political activism to actually make changes.
On a similar note I advocate for Congres to address the deficiencies and loopholes in the system that allow "the shorts" to run rampant legally.
Actually precisely the opposite supply/ demand and LIQUIDITY are always in play with price discovery.
The Australians seems better at record keeping than North America and Europe.[/quo te]
I have written my US representatives for them to update and reform the rules and the site. In this a day of age to not have timely updates required is ridiculous.
I'm just adding factual context to your FUD, since either you lack the knowledge or have a motive to spin to the negative 24/7.
Nice try at instilling "doubt" versus the normal "uncertainty" theme, but the clinicaltrials.gov site only requires an update every 12 months and companies big and small have been criticized for not providing more timely updates to the service.
I highly recommend you read the disclosures provided by the FDA on the limitations of their site.
Last update to the locations section was "2021-04-03"
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04314934?term=attention%20ad&rank=1&tab=history
I want to know how hedge funds can, without the cooperation of shareholders (bas excepted), can drive the stock price down. What are the mechanics of this.
Nice try at instilling "doubt" versus the normal "uncertainty" theme, but the clinicaltrials.gov site only requires an update every 12 months and companies big and small have been criticized for not providing more timely updates to the service.
I highly recommend you read the disclosures provided by the FDA on the limitations of their site.
Last update to the locations section was "2021-04-03"
https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04314934?term=attention%20ad&rank=1&tab=history
Adam F has wide latitude as an opinion writer and freedom of speech. He's full of 1/2 truths and lies veiled as opinions.
Kind of like many of the post here by team FUD that also feed off of the inherent uncertainty of biotech investing.
Way too early to make a call, but upside momentum appears intact as the 200 SMA day level at $9.44 is challenged.
Indeed, I'm most curious to see if above average volume will continue.
Volume, as a basic indicator tells me others participated, it needs not be me or you. ;)
I did participate unexpectedly and flipped a 1 day hold on the Oct $14 Calls I bought on a fluke probing the option market's quotes and got filled. That was one of my first "sells" of $AVXL in years.
Another possibility is that today was the start of the long awaited uptrend.
With your opinion, I'm sure you did not actively participate in today's rally, while others who felt the release of the actual numbers and a confirmation of the plans from the CEO was material enough to initiate buy side trades.
I strongly doubt the citizens of ihub have the cash to produce this type of volume or price move.
The release of the company's financials is considered a material event which contains substantial new news.
Imbalances of supply and demand and the resultant price movement are how markets are made. Every price move is NOT a freaking manipulation.....
Tomorrow is a wild card, demand continues or it doesn't and a retracement occurs.