Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
That's the think longs don't consider, investor. How many effective drugs are there on the market to treat Rett's? If you were a betting man, which side would you take? Same goes for AD. I'm not short; I've never shorted a stock; but I understand the long game here. They could lose tomorrow, and lose big, but in the long run they'll probably end up winning. Just take all of the AD drug trials over the years and ask yourself: who came out ahead? Sure, it's much more complicated than that. When you bought. When you sold. But, in the end of all these trials, I'd rather get the short end of the stock, if you get my drift.
Titan, when's the next ONCS catalyst? Thanks.
it will go up--or down, eventually--based on the Street's belief in the drug. In reality, what will probably happen is this: the MMs will bid it up for a month or two, then short the hell out of it before Data Day.
You notice the pattern? Everything seems unusual; people seem to see signs in everything Missling does. And then when he does it, it is, fact, the most usual thing of all. This has been going on for months with data, and it is reflected in the same price.
In other words, expect nothing from the upcoming conference.
It could be negative; it could be hype. But AF has one of the best bullshit detectors I have ever seen. So, just maybe, it could be true; so the risk is worth. I mean, what's Incyte going to do? Take out its rival? Or the BP rivals of Incyte? Merck? Interesting dynamics.
Maybe I will miss big profits by not selling today. But I will be shocked if, leading up the PISCES data in 6-8 months, the share price isn't much higher. Just the SLIGHT possible that they're taken out if data is good will attract speculators. I'm holding.
Looking good. Would be a fool to sell.
Anyone have the article AF wrote today? Need a subscription.
Think again buddy. This time I played it right. Last time, betting on AAIC data, I got killed will calls. Win some, lose some. Momentum be with you.
Sold my shares Monday at open and just bought half back at 4.07. The other half I'll buy back around 3.50.
Missling, of course.
As I try to see a pattern in the composition of the bubbles, one word pops in my head: disparate.
Who cares? It still means nothing. Let's get on with a large Ph2/3 trial.
I laughed when I read Mac's response, and then thought: how about Biogen's super-responders? You mean Anavex is the only company that can mine data to find a favorable cohort? Hardly.
I'll be more positive when I see efficacy in a large Ph2/3 trial with placebo arm.
funny, I was just thinking: in the end, when all of the slides are side and done, what new data has reinforced the thesis that 2-73 works effectively? Hard data. Efficacy data. None. In fact, based on prior posts on this board, the contrary could be argued: 1) super-responders were mostly MCI, a notoriously difficult cohort to assess and diagnose when screening, 2) other studies have shown wild variation in MMSE scores over time, with scores either improving or stabilizing in up to 15-20% of the three years (this has been pointed out by a few posters ad nauseum), and 3) there is no placebo arm, which, I believe, if there was, it would steal thunder from the super-responder noise.
I know it's hard to believe, but I do hold a long position, but I am not as enthusiastic about the data in the presentation as many here.
aint going to happen, Tom. Basically, yesterday was a no-news event.
Placebo?
we're talking about 6 patients.
What's that tell you? What do we really know about 2-73 and AD?
I think I do. I think people were expecting more.
ffrol, you mentioned in a previous post that it looked like the super-responders were mildly impaired. Don't you see that as potentially suspect? Why only them? When screening and assessing such patients, the diagnostic accuracy of the MMSE for detecting these individuals with baseline MCI is questionable.
thanks
I don't believe it. Twenty-some million for three trials. Man, I don't know what biotech companies you follow. About everyone and their dog is raising money in the tens of millions of dollars. It's actually a farse to think AVXL has enough.
Pete, how do you feel about the data? About what you expected?
if i read the board sentiment correctly, nobody here is blown away by the data. Rather, it seems Missling has disappointed. After two years? We could be back to the share price range where I made all my money, if no trial begins. Financing will probably become an issue as well.
I especially like this highlight from pr:
c'mon, investor. How could we be down after such great data?
What do you make of the presentation?
when was the Wainwright report published? Thanks.
you're joking, right?
you can say that again!
because it would be nice to see actual data that confirm efficacy. Still waiting on the data updates. Must be so good he's holding them close to his vest.
No, Mike, I'm long. Nostalgia, I guess.
I bet more than a few people on this board are nervous about tomorrow's data. You do, I suppose, that if your good doctor pulls another missling the share price will tank, dropping well below 4, and that's just for a start.
I still have my position--my gamble--albeit lighter.
You would think, with such a big upcoming event, that more investors would take a risk. After all, as the board knows, 2-73 could cure AD. And with such low valuation. Funny how these things work. Little interest.
I don't like the price action leading up to CTAD.
funny thing is, Ruby, for the last two years everyone has been waiting for the "next" six months.