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In my previous post I presented the Anatomy of a Price Squeeze using the AMRN daily chart.
Interestingly, the two charts below share identical squeeze pattern setups (with regard to price action, momentum, etc.) and timing/date of breakouts.
1/6/2022
1/7/2023
In fact, Last years breakout bar was on Friday, January 6.
This years followed suit and broke out on Friday January 7.
Last year's rally lasted 4 weeks and gained +72%.(Nice if you're long...sucks if you're short).
Oops, sorry. I forgot to ignore you too :)
Done.
What ever you say 'teeter-totter"
iwander -
Michael - Volume/Price
How big of a volcanic rumble today?
The IBB is up 3.0% pre market. AMRN has an ATR that is 3x higher, so a comparable move today would be +9.0% for AMRN.
If so, #4 will come into play very soon:
1. Signal line crosses the o line
2. Breakout of the Bollinger Band squeeze
3. 50MA turns up
4. the 20MA crosses above the 50MA (golden cross)
5. Bollinger bands expand and turn up
6. price crosses 200MA
7. May gap fills.
8. Analyst upgrades
Massive short squeeze today in the general market. Risk (including Bios) is up sharply. CPI report came in less than expected. The market will begin to price in a FED pivot.
Ok AMRN... you have wind in your sails now.
A closer look at the comparison of the squeeze pattern now vs 2021.
Back then, it took 4 days after the trigger bar (green) before prices began to lift and separate from the tight range. Notice the low volume following the trigger bar.
Now we have the exact same thing occurring, 2 low volume inside bars on the heels of the trigger bar. The Bollinger Bands are expanding accompanied by a rising 50MA, indicating further appreciation to follow.
It sure is...dang! I wish someone could pin this post for all to see. You clearly have let the emotion to "win" cloud your better judgement of what a short vs long is. LOL
Have you heard about it? ... Thought so.
I guess it's "news" to you too then.
Thanks. This is huge news!! First set of data that highlights the pleiotropic properties of EPA other than CVD. Combine colon/breast cancer prevention efficacy and you have multiple long term indications for the drug. BP... are you seeing this?
iwander -
Yep. The price squeeze pattern's chain reaction of TA propagating events was ignited today:
1. Signal line crosses the o line
2. Breakout of the Bollinger Band squeeze
3. 50MA turns up
4. the 20MA crosses above the 50MA (golden cross)
5. Bollinger bands expand and turn up
6. price crosses 200MA
7. May gap fills.
8. Analyst upgrades
1, 2 and 3 occurred today... #4 is on deck.
We saw the largest daily Bullish candle and the highest up volume since August 8th. Buying begets buying as this sort of price squeeze (Volcano) rally sharpens and shorts panic push prices higher, triggering the remaining events above.
As for timing, the advance might need a day or two to breathe, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 1.50 tested tomorrow, and 1.70 or higher by Friday, followed by a push into the 2's over the next few weeks.
The chart below shows an identical squeeze pattern that occurred in January 2021, when prices broke out and went on a +84% rally in 2 1/2 weeks.
A similar run now, takes AMRN up to 2.39/share.
It could run further however. The previous pattern rally filled the gap and turned the 200MA (red line) up. If that were to occur this time, we could see a much larger advance up to target #2 (+2.64/share).
All the same ingredients are present: sharp gap down wash out, 4-5 month consolidation into narrow Bollinger Bands with building MACD momentum (tremors).... then BOOM!
Well, you are skilled at being brave. Not many people will step in front of a train and brag about it. Today's price action ( spike up 14.5% on 3x avg. volume, followed by absorption of the selling) begs follow through to the upside.
1 short seller and 1 buyer (me) on this board this morning. Disappointing that the battered herd has not purchased even 1 share this morning.
I will tell you from a TA/trading perspective, there isn't a better setup opportunity to add.
wow, such blind confidence. Gamble away dude... all your trade does is add gunpowder hehehe.
SMOKE is beginning to rise from the volcano. We'll see fire above 1.30.
The short float is 2.52% and the short interest ratio is 3.02. True those are not huge numbers but what you are over looking is the TA price squeeze setup. The daily range has been squashed to its lowest level since pre-REDUC-IT.
Along with that, volume AVG has decreased to it's lowest level since May. in other words, the exit door for shorts is very narrow producing a Bernoulli's type phenomenon once the herd of shorts is spooked and they clamor through such a tight exit with few shares available to buy - due in large part to an onslaught of bargain buyers.
So yes, if it takes 3 days for the total short float to cover at near record lows, I think we'll see spirited buying if sparked by great results.... at LEAST sufficient to reach the 200MA
Thanks Vegas. To your list I would add: VuBro, Staccani, Dukesking, and Zummatu .
AMRN "Bait-n-wait" meter
Fly fishing is similar to active trading - lots of short term action. Bait-n-wait on the other hand is similar to buy and hold. Usually it involves sinking a worm to the bottom, then waiting for a nibble.
One of my most effective tools for timing bullish/bearish periods of the general market or other individual stocks is my Bait-n-Wait meter below:
It is a weekly chart (each bar is 1 week) where red bars indicate sell (sidelines or counter-trend day trades only) and green bars indicate buy and hold.
When applied to AMRN, you can see the bearish selloffs that enabled one to sidestep, and the bullish periods that enabled one to take exactly what the market was willing to give.
Notice the change from red to green prior to the R-IT announcement and green to red right after the FDA approval. Following this indication would have encouraged taking R-IT profits while avoiding the DU disaster.
Finally, near the right edge, you can see the "squeeze" characteristics that have traced just prior to turning green again.
Whether you use TA or not, this tool helps you avoid the teeth of bear markets while leaning into the hot, bullish (volcanic) periods.
Go V!!
Anatomy of a Price Squeeze
The bottoming process (following a gap down fall out (May plunge) nearly always involves the development of a price squeeze before shorts cover and prices breakout sharply above the 3+ month price range and the "bottom is in".
This chart clearly shows this setup:
We see a quadruple divergence between price and momentum. Each low that is probed is done so on a higher momentum low (tremor) while prices continues to decline towards the point of breakout.
Notice the Bollinger Bands wrapping prices tighter and tighter. This is tantamount to an extreme buildup of pressure prior to a volcanic eruption.
Volume rises sharply upon resolution and what little overhead resistance gets blown out until the 200MA is reached (2.05).
Also a chain reaction of positive TA propagating events is ignited:
1. Signal line crosses the o lne
2. the 20MA crosses above the 50MA (golden cross)
3. Bollinger bands expand and turn up
4 May gap fills.
5. Analyst upgrades
All of these occurrences trigger short seller stops and accompanying automated buy programs. The combined rush of accumulation, further squeezes remaining shorts and attracts increased buying. If events accelerate through #3, it is usually sufficient to lift prices to the gap fill mark at 2.64.
This analysis is IMO. Throw stones, call me crazy, call me a clown....don't care, because I enjoy making money :)
and your point is??
I have not denied my "expectations" or "hope" for V to shine in these trials. That doesn't mean I plug my head in the sand and ignore the trend, ignore the possibility of these trials failing, ignore the possibility of a general market crash, etc., Nor does it mean I will bash anyone (Kiwi) who presents a debate on the merits of a confirming trial to support R-IT and washout the naysayers. Unlike you, and most on this board, I see a coin with 2 sides, not just one. As such, j respect and practice risk aversion. Because of that, my hands are not bloodied from catching this falling knife. Rather, I am positioned with a basis just above the 52wk high with a reward/risk ratio > 2.0 = the ingredients successful trades are made of. Bring it on!
Go Vascepa!!
You and the others who liked your hit job on Kiwi are cry babies with your head in the sand. Seriously, why else do you think the company has become a penny stock? Why have prominent cardiologists (not just Nissen) come our publicly with concerns about the MO issue? Do you seriously think that hasn't hurt sales or the perception of the validity of the R-IT results?
True or not it has hurt Rx sales - not just for V but for generics as well. EPA is NOT being ingested like CocaCola... mainly because of this cloud over the R-IT trial.
Kiwi is spot on with his message, but you can't handle it. Honestly, what do you really think will happen to your precious investment if RESPECT data doesn't show significance? (Hint... we are all going to disappear from this board)
All you supposed investors high on FOMO can't handle real issues brought to this board that could undermine your investment. Kiwi brings up a great binary concept that literally is going to make (recover the stock price) or break your investment. and all you want to do is cry about how disingenuous he is. LOL... shame on you.
It's normal breathing for stocks to exhale after they inhale. In AMRN's case, it has retraced exactly 50% of it's October rally (a healthy back fill to build a base for future appreciation).
I really get under your skin, otherwise I would share a "pretty chart" to explain a basic concept lost on most investors who buy and hold.