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Well, you can say it both ways. =)
I am now either just going to take costs off the table, or profits, and let the other ride.
Check out CGW, the Claymore Water ETF. It is optionable.
lol, our mutual friend's a hedge fund manager's brother.
Made a bit of money on WLT last time it ran from $30 or so till $120... too bad I sold all the options when it hit $36.
My buddy rode it, via commons from $30 to $110.
Just an update.. cy, BGP,
CY closed at $5.05, HOD of $5.12. Calls are in the money. Lets see if they go through higher. Bought calls at $.33 originally, and then at $.05, Will take profits off the table if it hits $.45 or $.50 on the calls this week. These are Jan $5 strike.
BGP - HOD was $.72, closed at $.61, still up but not as much, perhaps profit taking, still looks good. I was going to take profits at $.75, hit HOD at $.72. eh.
Overall, a pretty good day, for all AUY, GE, CY, BGP, F.
Just an update.. cy, BGP,
CY closed at $5.05, HOD of $5.12. Calls are in the money. Lets see if they go through higher.
BGP - HOD was $.72, closed at $.61, still up but not as much, perhaps profit taking, still looks good.
Just an update.. cy, BGP,
CY closed at $5.05, HOD of $5.12. Calls are in the money. Lets see if they go through higher.
BGP - HOD was $.72, closed at $.61, still up but not as much, perhaps profit taking, still looks good.
Really? Why not wait until Jan expiration to buy them? Do you not believe in the Obama rally? If we go up any more, the calls will only be cheaper.
How quickly we all forget how people got burned here on SKF calls in Dec?
There are also folks who were averaging down from $45 a share.
What we do know is that, yet it may go to $.10 or even $.50...
the issue is, there is no known reason why this is happening.
I lost a bunch on WM and would love it to go back up... but just because it is up 50% 3 days in a row, doesnt mean you throw out all of your judgment and logic.
You cannot be pissed that you took out a profit... its like saying...
I am pissed I didnt short the market in 2007... or
I am pissed I did not buy at the intraday low Nov 21, 2008...
or... I am pissed that I didnt get out of WAMU 2 or 3 years ago. =)
CY @ $5.
hehe, OCNF is langy mentioned before is a real winner here. when did you originally mention it?
if you think oil is going to go down or economy slows even more.
Unemployment will go up, say to 9%, but UE is a lagging indicator.
CY $4.97
Cy $4.97
LVS Keeps going up, over $9 now. CY at $4.80, near the $5 calls.
Also, CY - Cypress Semi $4.80, near the $5 calls.
LVS... Keeps going up, over $9.
hope I helped. =)
FCX is a bigger mover, bigger player, yet at the top of its bands...
ANR is a smaller player in the trading game, however can probly go up more without being up too much too fast.
When in doubt... buy both. =P
When i saw it was that beaten down... hehe, just bought the shares. =) Though the $2.50's for a year out are going for $.20 or so.
FCX is up a nice $1.20 this morning so far, may hit $30.
Just an update, purchased the latest version of McMillan's "Options as Strategic Investment" at Borders yesterday with the 40% off coupon...
oh yeah, Purchased 1k shares of Borders, BGP at $.49 yesterday. Mentioned it on 2 other boards. Up to $.66/67 this morning. May look to take some profits if it hits $.75 to $1.
BGP - Borders up to $.66/.67 pre market. Was $.49 when I mentioned it here yesterday.
BGP - Borders up to $.66/.67 pre market. Was $.49 when I mentioned it here yesterday.
Where and what do you use for scans? What guidelines/factors?
Very exciting, and great to hear. I think we should be up tomorrow. we are bouncing off the top bollinger band on both sp500 and djia. some volume would be great.
our technical analyst is expecting a substantial move developing within the next few days to week or so.
Bollinger bands are highly compressed, and looks like all signs pointing to a bounce up.
Got in at $.49 today... nice to be up nearly 10% already.
Even went to support the store... used my 40% off coupon for McMillan's Options as Strategic Investment.
From Bill Fleckenstein's Daily Rap: (Here is Fleck's Site for the Daily Rap):
Note: reprinted with permission.
"After considerable thought and deliberation I have decided to make a major change in my life: I am going to close my hedge fund. I have several reasons for no longer wishing to run a short-only fund as I have for the past 12 years. First, my original reason for starting the fund was because of developments I saw occurring in the late 1990s that I wanted no part of. I felt that Greenspan was fomenting an environment that would lead to disaster, as consultants, financial advisors, and the public at large were losing all respect for risk. Of course, the reckless behavior carried far higher and lasted much, much longer than I ever imagined it could. However, the recent carnage in the stock market, real estate market and the financial system (as well as the job losses) has washed away those excesses to a large degree and it has violently demonstrated the risks associated with investing.
A future goal of mine, when I set up the fund in 1996 -- as I attempted to step aside from the madness -- was to return to the long side of the business at some point in time when I felt that investors had become more rational regarding risk and stocks offered a more favorable risk/reward proposition. I considered this option very briefly in 2002 after the stock bubble imploded, but the cleansing process was postponed due to the burgeoning real-estate bubble.
Second, though I think that the stock market still has unfinished business on the downside, I believe that 2009 is the year to prepare for a return to managing money in a more balanced fashion, with longs (and some shorts), as there are currently plenty of interesting ideas that appear to offer a margin of safety. On the flipside, compelling opportunities on the short side are not as abundant as they were just a few months ago (though there still are plenty.) The "value restoration project," to quote Jim Grant, has been brought about by the consequences of disastrous Fed policies and the madness of the crowd, both of which have concerned me for the last 15 or so years.
Lastly, on a personal note, I no longer want to run a short-only hedge fund, as it is very stressful, nerve-wracking and generally not very much fun, entailing an intense focus on the short term to effect risk control. In addition, one views the world differently when operating solely from the short side and I would like to widen my focus as I did when I managed money from 1982-1995. My wife is especially happy about this potential change.
My efforts in 2009 will be directed towards setting up an investment vehicle managed by Fred Hickey and me that won't be a hedge fund, which hopefully will be available to everyone. I feel that many (but certainly not everyone) in the "hedge" fund community have behaved in a disgraceful manner in the last couple years by taking huge fees along the way and then either running at the first sign of trouble (by giving money back to avoid having to recoup draw-downs from high watermarks), or locking people up and not giving them their money back at all. Consequently I'd rather not be part of that "industry" going forward. The Rap will continue as it has."
From today's Gartman Letter
SHARE PRICES, LIKE NON-US
DOLLARS, BEGAN THE YEAR ON A
VERY FIRMLY, led higher by the “infrastructure”
plays such as steel, heavy equipment, railroads, et al.
As noted in our “recommendation section below, we
have returned to trading as the New Year has begun,
and we have done so by accepting… aggressively…
exposure to precisely these stocks. Further, beyond
the “infrastructure” component, the stocks we’ve
discussed at length here in our commentaries are also
solid “dividend paying” companies, with dividends that
are quite well covered and whose earnings are
materially cyclical in nature. We like “prosaic.” We like
boring; We admire consistency of purpose and we like
longevity. So we own Deere; and we own
ConocoPhillips; and we own US Steel and Norfolk
Southern Railroad, and GE and the like. We shall let
others wiser than we buy high-tech pharma, or dabble
in nano-technology, or have exposure to DNA
investigation, or invest in the next generations of
computer technology. These are all far beyond our
ken. We’ll make our bets and take our changes with
“top down” economic forecasting, betting that railroads,
and banks and oil will all do well as the economy
begins to rise later this year.
Further, we note that our old friend, and long standing
client, Bill Fleckenstein, who has run one of the most
successful “short only” hedge funds for many years,
has chosen to close his fund! We take it very seriously
that Bill has chosen to close down his fund and has
returned all of the money to his investors, stating rather
publically that there are simply too few stocks to be
short of, and a vast number that are compelling on the
long side. When Bill “speaks” this loudly, only the
foolish among us refuse to listen:
From today's Gartman Letter
SHARE PRICES, LIKE NON-US
DOLLARS, BEGAN THE YEAR ON A
VERY FIRMLY, led higher by the “infrastructure”
plays such as steel, heavy equipment, railroads, et al.
As noted in our “recommendation section below, we
have returned to trading as the New Year has begun,
and we have done so by accepting… aggressively…
exposure to precisely these stocks. Further, beyond
the “infrastructure” component, the stocks we’ve
discussed at length here in our commentaries are also
solid “dividend paying” companies, with dividends that
are quite well covered and whose earnings are
materially cyclical in nature. We like “prosaic.” We like
boring; We admire consistency of purpose and we like
longevity. So we own Deere; and we own
ConocoPhillips; and we own US Steel and Norfolk
Southern Railroad, and GE and the like. We shall let
others wiser than we buy high-tech pharma, or dabble
in nano-technology, or have exposure to DNA
investigation, or invest in the next generations of
computer technology. These are all far beyond our
ken. We’ll make our bets and take our changes with
“top down” economic forecasting, betting that railroads,
and banks and oil will all do well as the economy
begins to rise later this year.
Further, we note that our old friend, and long standing
client, Bill Fleckenstein, who has run one of the most
successful “short only” hedge funds for many years,
has chosen to close his fund! We take it very seriously
that Bill has chosen to close down his fund and has
returned all of the money to his investors, stating rather
publically that there are simply too few stocks to be
short of, and a vast number that are compelling on the
long side. When Bill “speaks” this loudly, only the
foolish among us refuse to listen:
From today's Gartman Letter
SHARE PRICES, LIKE NON-US
DOLLARS, BEGAN THE YEAR ON A
VERY FIRMLY, led higher by the “infrastructure”
plays such as steel, heavy equipment, railroads, et al.
As noted in our “recommendation section below, we
have returned to trading as the New Year has begun,
and we have done so by accepting… aggressively…
exposure to precisely these stocks. Further, beyond
the “infrastructure” component, the stocks we’ve
discussed at length here in our commentaries are also
solid “dividend paying” companies, with dividends that
are quite well covered and whose earnings are
materially cyclical in nature. We like “prosaic.” We like
boring; We admire consistency of purpose and we like
longevity. So we own Deere; and we own
ConocoPhillips; and we own US Steel and Norfolk
Southern Railroad, and GE and the like. We shall let
others wiser than we buy high-tech pharma, or dabble
in nano-technology, or have exposure to DNA
investigation, or invest in the next generations of
computer technology. These are all far beyond our
ken. We’ll make our bets and take our changes with
“top down” economic forecasting, betting that railroads,
and banks and oil will all do well as the economy
begins to rise later this year.
Further, we note that our old friend, and long standing
client, Bill Fleckenstein, who has run one of the most
successful “short only” hedge funds for many years,
has chosen to close his fund! We take it very seriously
that Bill has chosen to close down his fund and has
returned all of the money to his investors, stating rather
publically that there are simply too few stocks to be
short of, and a vast number that are compelling on the
long side. When Bill “speaks” this loudly, only the
foolish among us refuse to listen:
probly prenegotiated on close deals.
BGP Borders hit $.60, mentioned it this morning at $.49. =)
Yes. It could be very good. If you would be happy letting the shares go for $40, or even look at the $41 strike... could be a good payday. Otherwise, think about it as booking profits in 6 months.
Still holding my calls, I am not picking up more simply because it would put me too concentrated in it.
At this point, to add to GE, I would actually look at the $16 and $15 strikes where you are deeper in the money, with less time premium. You are not getting the same leverage, yet less risk.
Whatever you want it to mean. =)
Rolling it out means closing near term option, and writing another one further out on the calendar to collect more premium. =)
If the fees dont kill you, I would write them monthly... less you think the implied volatility will go down.
I am bullish through jan, fed march may be ugly.
Why not write the 11 day calls, Jan 42's for $1.15 or so, then at any time you can roll out.
My only concern is that once the obama sizzle is done when he takes office, and in feb, march, unemployment still going up, there is a chance we may see selloff, which makes treasuries rally.
What the other thing you can do is March 42 for $4 to $4.40
Unless you reallly need premium today, or fear the company goes belly up, try not to go out more than 3 months as the rate of decay is highest in the near 3 months, more specifically in near month.
Will have to make it a testimonial. =)
So you closed out the Jans at $.55? What did you roll out to?
LVS has been on a tear past few days. Up another 16% today.