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Sun Execs Rip Rivals on Server Push.
Me...
I wish AMD was more willing to Rip into INTC, but that sort of posturing seems to have gone out of fashion with Jerrys departure. Hopefully SUN will do a better job than AMD has in driving home to the purchasing community the advantages Opteron has over Xeon.
Again some interesting comparisons with other systems starting on slide 31.
http://www.sun.com/aboutsun/media/presskits/networkcomputing05q3/NC05Q3_StagePreso_091205_Acrobat.pd...
20% off doesn't apply just to Dell.
http://www.sun.com/aboutsun/media/presskits/networkcomputing05q3/NC05Q3_StagePreso_091205_Acrobat.pd...
see slide 53. Other discounts, and that's just what they willing to give anyone. Looks like Sun is morphing into a new model of itself that's going to make life a lot more difficult for everyone else.
1.5 times the horsepower, 1/3 the power use, 1/4 the size, 1/2 the cost. Not sure how these numbers will hold up, but if they do Dell in particular is going to be feeling a world of pain.
I've seen it mentioned in an article. Four months ago I think. No I haven't stored a link, and searching for it for 5 minutes didn't bring the article back.
Me...
I saw an article, maybe the same one, saying something like primary mode would be one processor and the other would be turned on as needed when on battery. Also that both cores would be active all the time when the notebook was plugged in. I have no idea how accurate that article was or even if my recollection is completely correct. As you say we'll have to wait and see.
bobs, comparably configured servers from Dell comprises just about anything, imho.
me...
Yeah, at this point we really don't know much. I think you read the proposed pricing on SI. We don't know anything about that either. As usual with these sorts of releases rumors swirl around in a virtual tornado of half truths and mis-information.
Tomorrow the fog should start to lift.
Sun claims that the new industry-standard servers consume about one-third the power, offer half again as much performance, and cost half as much as comparably configured servers from Dell.
Me...
What they're saying is 1.5 times performance. Sounds like SUN could be trying to make a very big statement.
You might consider Intel's flash troubles + claims of an AMD Spansion roadshow in October, Monday's debut of Galaxy, and Intel's underwhelming IDF, Intel's lame response to the suit, and Dell's subpoena response as recent events.
As for "skyrockets", I think that's a bit of an overstatement for a ~15% rise.
Me...
The Spansion IPO has been talked about for over a year now. Galaxy has been talked about since Andy Bechtholdsheim rejoined SUN. INTC's under whelming IDF is just a product of AMD gains. The suit was mentioned as one thing that has changed recently. Dell's subpoena response, while nice, is just a transitory comment. 15% may not sound like much, but in the time frame it has occurred it seems significant to me.
I know it's a little early to be talking about earnings, but here goes anyway. I know this isn't an apple to apple comparison but INTC is the best we have to compare with. According to Yahoo AMD is currently projected by the analysts to earn $.07 per share and INTC $.36. (The $.36 is probably about $.04 too high, but I'll use it anyway.) Using Fridays closing prices AMD should be earning about $.33 in a straight comparison. I know the analysts estimates are way too low and don't factor in the AMD hype such as the IPO and faster growth, but can AMD earn any where near $.33? More importantly what is the market expecting from AMD in the way of earnings?
You see the problem? As AMD careens higher the discrepancy becomes more pronounced setting AMD up for the sort of fall that took place at the end of last Decembers rally. Personally I think AMD will probably earn closer to $.20 than $.07, but I'm not sure that will be enough for the market.
Anyway, I hope AMD takes a breather here. For me a slower pace of accretion would be preferable and not force me to make some rather nasty decisions.
Nothing, other than the suit has really changed in that period
Speaking of remote dimensions...
Me...
Like what? As I said there has been a more or less steady patter of wins of one sort or another over the last 6 months, but frankly the way I see it nothing has really changed. Perhaps you are thinking of the "E" stepping? Well, as far as I'm concerned, while that was very important, it was just a continuation of the SOI/DSL direction AMD was heading in all along. The commingling of resources with IBM was sheer serendipity but again that decision was made more than 6 months ago.
The way I see it AMD chose the right path a long time ago with the basic Athlon design and all they have been doing since is following that evolutionary path. The initial advantage of going AMD64 gave AMD a big tech lead thanks in no little way to INTC's management putting all its’ eggs in the proprietary Itanium product with the plan of eventually easing INTC out of the X86 market. In time this will undoubtedly be recognized as one of the most colossal blunders ever committed by any technology management.
So again I'll ask what has changed in the last week, month or six months that warrants the sudden price rise we've seen? All the good news we're seeing now was available to anyone willing to look and do a little projecting a year ago. Something else is going on and all the rumors racing around now are attempts to allay the unease most of us feel when AMD skyrockets like it is now doing.
Short INTC long NVDA, TXN?
Go for it!
Let's us know how it turns out.
Me...
I can understand your testiness given the markets reaction to yesterdays mid-q update, but I did put a question mark after the title. Interesting, I notice the differential between AND and INTC has narrowed to about $1.50. That has got to be putting a lot of INTC employee options under water. I certainly hope you’re not affected.
Actually, I wonder what kind of cellular products would come out of an AMD/TXN mirage given AMD's flash capabilities and TXN's long dominance of the cellular processor markets? Sounds like there should be some room for X86 everywhere there?
Short INTC long NVDA, TXN?
http://www.stocktradersdaily.com/News%20Release/News_release_TXN_INTC_090905.htm
TXN and AMD
Personally I can think of a lot of very interesting reasons for the two to get together. I've wanted AMD to get closer to SNE for years, but alas it was not to be. AMD and TXN would be a powerhouse that could easily rival INTC.
TXN obviously has big plans in the enteratinment/communications area and has a long history, like AMD, of waging war with INTC. I could see a lot of synergies amoungst the two particularly in the Media center area. DLP hooked up with Geode/Athlon processors could create some interesting products.
Nice post
Yonah is a 65nm product with twice the amount of opportunities to leak (as it has about twice as much transistors). Whether or not that leakage shows at idling and/or near idling and/or full operation is of no importance to me. I believe however that for the reason I mentioned that leakage can only exceed that of Dothan in all those situations. It just can't be completely concealed only by more advanced strain. I believe that to be impossible because it does not make sense to me. Also it's the general trend (more leakage with every new generation). If you believe differently please do give me a single logical reason why, if you can that is. Plus I don't give a hoot about Intel's comments unless I can interpret them myself directly.
Me...
I completely agree, show me the beef. All INTC has been doing lately is making more and more ambiguous promises.
the guys running the show That would be the market. I think you're getting a bit paranoid about market manipulation.
Me...
How refeshingly naive. I've got sad news for you, there is no Easter Bunny. Just why do you suppose that AMD is going balistic right now instead of a week ago, or 2 weeks ago, or a month ago, or 6 months ago? Nothing, other than the suit has really changed in that period and that had little effect on the stock price. The last 6 months has just been a period of steadily increasing wins of one sort or another, no 90 degree turns.
You can call it "market manipulation" if you want but I just consider it part of the game, falling under the title "Learning to Swim with the sharks". Any time you put a pot of gold out there you can bet people will line up 16 deep and work nights trying to figure out a way to get at it. And that's basically the way a lot of people view the stock markets, as luscious tomatoes ripe for picking.
Not that it's necessarily illegal or even immoral. After all both you and I have our own games we're playing. But to deny the existance of people trying to bend the stock market to their will is living in a more remote dimension than the one Elmer lives in. And if you think it's just the penny ante day traders that are trying to corner the market think again. The number of games being played are almost infinite and played by the complete cross section of wealth out there.
Not that the little guy can't make money in the markets, but he has to play a different game. The guys moving the market now have an event horizon measured in weeks at most. Their game is hit and run. If one can recognize what's going on and participate it's possible to mimimic the gains the big boys are making. Not that they are always right, but then that's the stock market for you.
AMD price rise.
Well this latest shoot the moon phase seems to be going the way the last one in Dec of 84 went. Again, the big boys are having their way with a low float AMD. It hasn't taken many shares to move AMD so far and it's not at all apparent just what these guys objectives are. Whatever the case just, keep an open mind. Remember, these guys aren't moving the price so that you can make money, but so that they can make money. More than likely they are again moving the stock up to later short it, but who knows?
One thing you can count on is that they have much better information than we have. Another thing is that any weakness in INTC's reporting today will be undoubtedly viewed as AMD strength by some. Personally I think earnings of between $.15 and $.18 are already priced into the stock and anything less will disappoint.
Dispite all the good AMD news lately the stock can get ahead of itself. More than likely the guys running the show now probably plan on carrying the price above the old $25 high, but how much higer?
INTC, Leman Bros.
http://www.reed-electronics.com/electronicnews/article/CA6254749.html
We note that notebooks are expected to reach approximately 36 percent of total Intel shipments by the end of 2005 and that Q2 was the first quarter in which notebooks outsold desktops. In servers, we believe low to mid range servers (primarily two-four way servers) continue to see mid to high single digit growth as these lower cost server networks displace higher-end solutions and RISC-based servers,” he stated.
Lehman further said it expects the flash business to show revenue up 5 percent sequentially to $552 million after two quarters of revenue contraction.
Luke also noted a favorable environment of tight capacity and low inventory will likely be balanced by seasonal strength in lower ASP desktop processors
Me...
Looks like flash should be doing better and Itanium/RISC servers continue to feel X86 pressure from below.
More in the short article.
Watch out Itanium, clustering latency reduction for Opterons.
http://www.theinquirer.net/?article=23652
The Pathscale technology that was introduced a couple of years ago seems to be on a market rampage.
In 2003 AMD looked back at 2002 as a 'watershed year'. That year the dam kinda broke and flushed their stock price from about $20 to a little over $3. Scary.
Me...
Yes, it was a great opportunity to make money. During that period I kept selling and buying back at lower prices until the stock got to about $6 and I got cold feet. Eventually I ended up rebuying at about $6. but I really missed the bottom. That was exactly what I didn't want to do since when tech stocks had hit bottoms during the 90's they usually rebounded 30% or so within a couple of months. Anyway, in the end I about doubled the amount of AMD shares I had before the drop so I didn't come out too badly.
With a stock like AMD that has a very high beta you have to be able to sell when the handwriting is on the wall. During that period I was able to see the progress AMD was making so I never gave up on the stock, just reacted to market realities. Still, during that period AMD was a very high fear-factor stock often not far from bankruptcy. One of the posters during that period had a moniker of 2 steel balls. You really needed them to play in that market.
In contrast today I sense tension on the boards, not because AMD isn’t doing well, but because it isn’t doing well fast enough for some. I expect we’ll see more johny come latelys hoping on for a quick ride as AMD completes the last trick in its’ turnaround, but the real rewards will go to those of us that saw a potential and had the balls to invest when the rest of the world had written off AMD.
Yeah, Jerry was prone to hyperbole, sophistry, melodrama, and
ludicrous self-promotion.
OTOH Hector is prone to hyperbole, sophistry, melodrama, and
ludicrous self-promotion.
Me...
Yet the evidence indicates that AMD management is heads and shoulders better than INTC management. The history of AMD over the last five years has been market by one success after anther while during that same period INTC has been rushing headlong towards a fathomless abyss.
Don't take my word for it just look at the relative values the market has given AMD vis a vis INTC over the last five years.
In the end this unbelievable turn around has to be attributed to management since intimately they have the final word. I've been playing the market for over 50 years now and I've seldom seen such an incompetent bunch of boobs as Barrett and Otellini. It takes a real talent to drive a company with the advantages INTC had into the ground. Fortunately for us AMDers INTC management has been up to the task.
bobs, do they mean this year or next year
I read the article as meaning slowly, as with everything else, but the sum of all the snail paced projects AMD has going should be producing ever better results. This quarter should be good and q4 even better, especially if flash starts cooperating. The capacity problems will probably restrict AMD's pace of growth until Chartered and fab36 can start to make positive contributions.
Q3 margins should tell the tale as AMD continues the shift to higher value products. Nothing you or any of the other AMD holders don't already know, but steady progress should continue.
INTC compiler dirty tricks exposed.
http://www.swallowtail.org/naughty-intel.html
You can bet the relative merits of the processors has a lot less to do with their adoption than other factors. It's just politics as usual, combined with SGI having an inside track, and INTC wanting to make a statement in AMD's backyard.
Looks like political pork to me. As I said prviously, INTC probably made a deal they couldn't refuse considering the university is in Dresden. Having their bitch SGI running the thing didn't hurt either. INTC can still afford to make a point when it wants to. No mention of the AMD processors?
Them...
"This is the third time in a row that Dresden has selected SGI as preferred HPC partner -- and it's a 128-processor SGI Origin 3800 system we actually use for running our HPC shared memory jobs," explains ZIH Director Nagel. "However, SGI was required to prevail in a tough, very challenging competition. We made our decision in favor of SGI because the company is capable of delivering a system with such a uniquely large shared-memory size. This is a distinguishing factor - enabling us to provide our clients with a unique quality of service for their novel and challenging investigations."
Turion getting noticed
http://www.pcworld.com/reviews/article/0,aid,122104,00.asp
Dell's server offerings
http://www.itjungle.com/tlb/tlb083005-story04.html
yes, I saw that
But since it was a Dresden college I decided that the whole thing was probably loaded with other factors, especially since SGI was leading the whole thing up. In the end I decided to just note the thing that would be of most interest to the AMD folk and let the readers make up their minds about the rest of the story and its' implications.
While SGI may be cozying up to AMD it doesn't look like it has any plans to dump INTC. We'll have to see how this menage a trois goes. Overall the computer sounds like the sort of thing a senate finance committee would come up with, a little pork for everyone. Not necessarily the best design, but one the committee can agree on.
2500 opteron system
http://www.linuxpr.com/releases/8076.html
from the saxman.
alchemy in set top boxes.
http://www.d-silence.com/headlines/Pixelworks,%20AMD/21600
Anyone have an idea how diffificult/feasible it would be to bolt 2 Dragonfly class alchemy chips together ala INTC?
There is another alternative to consider. IIRC, Spansion intends to somehow convert JV3 to 300mm, equip adjacent (empty) JV4, resulting in combined mega 300 mm fab, to be called SP1. There may be some disruption in production as it happens, so it will be great if there is an alternative source available. Ability to supplement production may not be the primary motivatotion. (just thinking outloud..
Me...
Yeah, that's the immediate impetus, but I think this pact is going to be a much more permanent thing. As I remember it AMD has been working with TSMC on flash as long as I can remember. I would guess that this has been in the works for some time given the expected production date of q206?
YoY, Spansion is second from last, losing 31%, Toshiba the last.
Me...
Thanks, I missed the table.
Yeah, Spansion decided not to play INTC's game and let INTC gorge itself on losses. AMD reduced revenues/market share, but they also reduced costs setting up the latest quarter gains.
Given that Spansion wasn't willing to lose money just to keep market share it seems unlikely that Spansion would be entering into the TSMC deal if it couldn't make money on the added capacity. Anyway, the capacity wont hit until 06 and last I heard ORNAND was still an 07 thing, so this would seem to indicate that the demand is for MirrorBit? Which makes me wonder just how well INTC's Sibley/Naubinway are doing?
I don't know, but It's beginning to look like we're entering the land of Aquarius where the planets align with the stars.
OK I'll ask.
If flash is such a dog, just why is Spansion contracting for more capacity?
I've mentioned many times that I thought Hector was far from giving up on flash. Indeed it's looking more and more like the Spansion IPO was more of a way to reduce the heat than anything else. In the end, if there is an IPO, the most probable thing to come out of it will be a change in the way AMD accounts for its' controlling interest.
Personally, I still think in another year or so we will be wondering why everyone was so hot to get rid of Spansion. To me Spansion looks about where AMD was a couple of years ago. The difference this time is that there is absolutely no competition from INTC and AMD has the potential to be the gorilla in the market.
The real questions are the usual suspects, namely whether Spansion can produce the products they have planned in the quantities needed. The TSMC thing seems to be an answer to the capacity issue.
Spansion and TSMC pact.
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/050811/115841.html?.v=1
INTC getting Dell fallout
http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?mode=frameset&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttyp...
Me...
You have to wonder just how much not having Opterons to sell into the server market affected Dells ASPs. Looks like Dell is being forced to concentrate on the low-end a lot more than Mickey probably wants. INTC better get those DC Celeron chipsets into high production mode.
As I've said many times before, "earnings are a trailing indicator", both on the way up and down. Those hairline cracks in the INTC/DELL facade are getting bigger.
The list of ducks AMD has to get in line keeps getting shorter and shorter. In particular the flash news seems to be getting better as INTC has to make decisions about how much it wants to hurt AMD or hurt itself. All in all the scorched earth flash strategy, like so many things INTC has tried lately, appears to have largely backfired.
AMD may have endured some short-term pain, but like everything else INTC has tossed at AMD lately, AMD comes out stronger and INTC weaker. AS far as I can tell AMD now dominates the high end MLC markets with 1Gb mirrorbit coming out by year-end. It's hard to see how INTC's 1Gb Strata flash will be able to compare on a cost basis, especially if INTC has to make capacity decisions as it now appears. This will only get worse in the future as INTC's Strata flash has run out of gas and wont scale to higher MLC levels.
I haven't heard much about INTC's touted Sibley/Naubinway products (90nm cellular) or Sixmile(embedded) strata flash yet. These were to be the Spansion killers, but given the pull back in market share in q2 it looks like INTC is having problems here also? If AMD can get 1Gb MirrorBit at 90nm going it will do a lot to Aleve any doubts about Spansions manufacturing capabilities.
As far as I can tell INTC still has no plans for a reply to AMD's ORNAND.
Flash
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=168600806
“Among the top-five players, leading NOR flash supplier Intel fared the worst, with its revenue declining to $528 million, down 8.7 percent from $578 million in the first quarter,” according to iSuppli. “The company lost two points of market share compared to the first quarter to decline to 28.3 percent of total NOR revenue for the period.”
Flash in PCs
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,121946,00.asp
Me...
With support from MSFT coming in Longhorn this seems like a natural for Spansion? Particularly for the sub T&Ls. I've been wondering how long it will be before we start seeing Alchemy based video/audio products that compete with cell phones? For sure cell phones are not going to be the end all "universal communicator" anymore than 802.11b was the last wireless protocol. There's a lot more evolution going to take place. Flash seems to be an ideal adjunct to AMD's X86 everywhere and Dragonfly/Castle/Snowmass.
chipguy, it´s not surprising if the company with a tiny to nonexistent share of the respective market (here: enterprise desktops) has to follow the example set by the monopolist.
Me...
Even more important is the relative importance of the ideas. X86-64 and the onboard memory controllers dwarf what is primarily a marketing device. The important thing is that AMD is leading the market where it matters and not following INTC around like a lost puppy as in the past.
Battle for $20
Seems to be raging on. Anyone else with any ideas about why this line seems to have been drawn in the sand? The SOXX is down some today, but looking at the trading it looks like more of yesterdays action, at least to me. You option/TA guys any ideas?
INTC playing the only card if has left?
http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=166402981
Me...
My oh my how things have changed.