Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

You might consider Intel's flash troubles + claims of an AMD Spansion roadshow in October, Monday's debut of Galaxy, and Intel's underwhelming IDF, Intel's lame response to the suit, and Dell's subpoena response as recent events.

As for "skyrockets", I think that's a bit of an overstatement for a ~15% rise.


Me...

The Spansion IPO has been talked about for over a year now. Galaxy has been talked about since Andy Bechtholdsheim rejoined SUN. INTC's under whelming IDF is just a product of AMD gains. The suit was mentioned as one thing that has changed recently. Dell's subpoena response, while nice, is just a transitory comment. 15% may not sound like much, but in the time frame it has occurred it seems significant to me.

I know it's a little early to be talking about earnings, but here goes anyway. I know this isn't an apple to apple comparison but INTC is the best we have to compare with. According to Yahoo AMD is currently projected by the analysts to earn $.07 per share and INTC $.36. (The $.36 is probably about $.04 too high, but I'll use it anyway.) Using Fridays closing prices AMD should be earning about $.33 in a straight comparison. I know the analysts estimates are way too low and don't factor in the AMD hype such as the IPO and faster growth, but can AMD earn any where near $.33? More importantly what is the market expecting from AMD in the way of earnings?

You see the problem? As AMD careens higher the discrepancy becomes more pronounced setting AMD up for the sort of fall that took place at the end of last Decembers rally. Personally I think AMD will probably earn closer to $.20 than $.07, but I'm not sure that will be enough for the market.

Anyway, I hope AMD takes a breather here. For me a slower pace of accretion would be preferable and not force me to make some rather nasty decisions.