Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

INTC getting Dell fallout

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/quote.dll?mode=frameset&kind=&timeframe=&intraday=&charttyp...

Me...

You have to wonder just how much not having Opterons to sell into the server market affected Dells ASPs. Looks like Dell is being forced to concentrate on the low-end a lot more than Mickey probably wants. INTC better get those DC Celeron chipsets into high production mode.

As I've said many times before, "earnings are a trailing indicator", both on the way up and down. Those hairline cracks in the INTC/DELL facade are getting bigger.

The list of ducks AMD has to get in line keeps getting shorter and shorter. In particular the flash news seems to be getting better as INTC has to make decisions about how much it wants to hurt AMD or hurt itself. All in all the scorched earth flash strategy, like so many things INTC has tried lately, appears to have largely backfired.

AMD may have endured some short-term pain, but like everything else INTC has tossed at AMD lately, AMD comes out stronger and INTC weaker. AS far as I can tell AMD now dominates the high end MLC markets with 1Gb mirrorbit coming out by year-end. It's hard to see how INTC's 1Gb Strata flash will be able to compare on a cost basis, especially if INTC has to make capacity decisions as it now appears. This will only get worse in the future as INTC's Strata flash has run out of gas and wont scale to higher MLC levels.

I haven't heard much about INTC's touted Sibley/Naubinway products (90nm cellular) or Sixmile(embedded) strata flash yet. These were to be the Spansion killers, but given the pull back in market share in q2 it looks like INTC is having problems here also? If AMD can get 1Gb MirrorBit at 90nm going it will do a lot to Aleve any doubts about Spansions manufacturing capabilities.

As far as I can tell INTC still has no plans for a reply to AMD's ORNAND.