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Earnigs After Hour. Maybe, bad news Q3, Big drop after earnigs? ;)
PBCT: Q3 EPS of $0.23 beats by $0.01.Revenue of $312.9M (+0.1% Y/Y) misses by $9.71M.
Revenues: Q2: $347.5 - Q3 - 11%
•In related news, EVP Jack W. Singer sold 15,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Friday, September 25th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1.64, for a total value of $24,600.00. Following the sale, the executive vice president now directly owns 1,451,850 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,381,034. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink.
•In related news, EVP Matthew Plunkett sold 75,869 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Thursday, September 24th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1.57, for a total value of $119,114.33. Following the sale, the executive vice president now directly owns 725,084 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $1,138,381.88. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink
Zacks Rank Sell 4 red
CTI BioPharma Corp (NASDAQ:CTIC) EVP Jack W. Singer sold 15,000 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 25th. The shares were sold at an average price of $1.64, for a total value of $24,600.00. Following the transaction, the executive vice president now directly owns 1,451,850 shares in the company, valued at $2,381,034. The transaction was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through the SEC website.
BIG RAT!
PBR, IS A DEAD CAT!
Volume, now 1,902,728 shares. Offering, 10 Millon shares, $1.57
Maturity 9/29/2015. 9,000,000 more in two days?
This ends in the toilet! ;)
It is not the first time you do this. After diluted shareholders a reverse split. Now,190.7 Millon shares outstanding.
Again @.60
Marvell’s accounting problems may start at the very top.
MRVL, can end badly, perhaps in bankruptcy
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/marvells-accounting-problems-may-start-at-the-very-top-2015-09-11 …
MRVL had its price target lowered by analysts at RBC Capital to $9.00. 14.7% downside from the previous close of $10.56.
Dead cat
Q2 EPS $(0.74) vs. Est. $0.11 May Not Compare, Rev. $711M vs. Est. $721.9M
S&P CAPITAL IQ KEEPS HOLD OPINION ON SHARES OF MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP
9:08 am ET September 11, 2015 (S&P Capital IQ) Print
We cut our 12-month target price by $5 to $10, shifting to price-to-sales below peers given limited earnings visibility. MRVL announces an audit review related to 7%-8% of sales recognized in the Jul-Q that would have been received/earned in the Oct-Q and is now no longer available for receipt for that quarter. MRVL offers preliminary Jul-Q revenue of $711M (Capital IQ consensus $722M) and GAAP loss of $0.74. We think the audit review will act as an overhang on shares and believe MRVL will see prolonged softness within its business given challenges in the hard disk drive space.
Press Release: Fitch: Real's Depreciation to Pressure Petrobras' Cash Flow Generation Absent Price Increase
4:52 pm ET August 10, 2015 (Dow Jones)
The following is a press release from Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-Chicago-10 August 2015: Petrobras' EBITDA could fall from an annualized rate of approximately USD27.9 billion for the first half of 2015 (1H15) to an annualized rate of USD23.6 billion for 2H15 at the current exchange rate of BRL3.5 per dollar, according to Fitch Ratings. The company reported total financial debt of approximately USD134 billion. Fitch expects company leverage to remain above 5x should the current exchange rate prevail throughout 2H15 and the company keeps liquid fuel prices unchanged.
Although the company reported positive free cash flow (FCF) during 1H15, FCF is expected to be negative during 2H15 as cash flow from operations would be lower at the current exchange rate and capex will be higher in order to reach the USD28 billion in investments planned for the year. Capital expenditures during 1H15 were low at approximately USD12 billion as the company slowed down investments while it dealt with Lava-Jato-related issues. Negative FCF can be covered with cash on hand of approximately USD29.5 billion as of June 30, 2015.
Some mitigating factors for the exchange rate impact are the decrease in Brent prices; this as the company continues being a net importer and has not revised domestic gasoline and diesel prices since November 2014. The company has also stated that a portion of its capex is denominated in Brazilian Reals. Nevertheless, Fitch believes these mitigating factors could be dwarfed by the foreign exchange impact on cash flow from operations if prices are to be maintained at current levels.
Fitch has previously noted as negative rating sensitivities the failure to lower total debt-to-EBITDA to below 5x over the medium term and a lessening in the perception of government support as for Petrobras' ratings. With the possibility of leverage staying above 5x for 2015 and potentially for 2016 if exchange rate and hydrocarbon prices remain bearish, Petrobras' ratings will be largely based on Fitch's current perception of continued strong government support. Petrobras' deleveraging process will rely heavily on the company's expected divestiture process given that organic FCF could remain under pressure during 2015 and 2016.
Petrobras' ratings of 'BBB-'/ 'AAA (bra)', with a Negative Outlook continue to reflect its close linkage with the sovereign rating of Brazil due to the government's control of the company and its strategic importance to Brazil as its near-monopoly supplier of liquid fuels. Absent implicit and explicit government support, Petrobras' credit metrics are not consistent with other large, integrated private sector oil and gas companies that are rated investment grade. The credit linkage of Petrobras to the sovereign is evidenced by the lending commitments offered by Banco do Brasil and Caixa Economica Federal during 1H15 in order to bolster Petrobras' liquidity, as well as maintaining domestic fuel prices above international levles. By law, the federal government must hold at least a majority of Petrobras' voting stock. The government currently owns 60.5% of Petrobras' voting rights, directly and indirectly, and has an overall economic stake in the company of 46%. Petrobras' cash position is strong and sufficient to meet its short-term funding needs.
Deutsche Bank Downgrades Petrobras (PBR) to Sell
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Deutsche+Bank+Downgrades+Petrobras+%28PBR%29+to+Sell/10797545.html … vía @Street_Insider
Gannett adds creative services to InnerWorkings’ marketing execution partnership
http://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20150803006204/en/#.Vb-65rXbIrg
Why buy GCI?.Icahn Ups Stake In Gannett
As per the filing, Icahn, as of June 29, had 7.48 million shares in GCI6.5%
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/icahn
Why buy GCI?.Icahn Ups Stake In Gannett
As per the filing, Icahn, as of June 29, had 7.48 million shares in GCI6.5%
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/icahn
Rovi's Patents Looking Less Valuable
7:21 am ET July 17, 2015 (Dow Jones)
7:21 EDT - Investors didn't take kindly yesterday to ROVI's overnight litigation update, sending shares slumping 20% to a nearly 3-year low after saying a judge granted Netflix's (NFLX) motion for summary judgment to find 5 ROVI patents in question invalid. That decision moves Pacific Crest from the bull camp as well, saying the ruling "could embolden" major pay-TV outfits "to test the courts, extending the period of uncertainty around ROVI," a patent holder on things like set-top-box guides. "Internet services are abstract by nature," the investment bank notes, "so Rovi's patents seem likely to be less valid as video transitions to Internet delivery." ROVI is inactive premarket and down 38% for the year. (kevin.kingsbury@wsj.com; @kevinkingsbury)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 17, 2015 07:21 ET (11:21 GMT)
Rovi Corp. Cut to Sector Weight From Overweight by Pacific Crest
July 17, 2015 5:51 am ET Dow Jones
Use Options For a Chance To Buy TXMD at a 46% Discount
Stock Options Channel Staff - 3 hours, 48 minutes ago
http://www.stockoptionschannel.com/article/201507/use-options-for-a-chance-to-buy-txmd-at-a-46-discount-txmd-xph-TXMD07142015ocross.htm/
Judge allows lawsuit over Petrobras bribery claims .Big Rats!
Jul 10 2015, 12:21 ET | About: Petrobras - Petroleo Brasil... (PBR) | By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
A U.S. judge rejects Petrobras' (PBR +2%) effort to dismiss a lawsuit claiming that years of corruption, including bribery, caused more than $98B of its stock and bonds to be overvalued.
Investors accuse PBR of publishing misleading financial statements and overstating the quality of internal controls during the money laundering and bribery scheme that cut the value of the company’s securities.
In seeking to dismiss the investor lawsuit, lawyers for PBR had argued that the company was itself a victim, and not accountable for the wrongful actions of a few individuals
Press Release: Fitch Downgrades Odebrecht-Sponsored Drilling Rig Transactions; Outlook Negative
5:22 pm ET July 9, 2015 (Dow Jones) Print
The following is a press release from Fitch Ratings:
Fitch Ratings-Chicago-09 July 2015: Fitch Ratings downgrades and removes from Rating Watch Negative the senior secured notes issued by Odebrecht Drilling Norbe VIII/IX Ltd. and Odebrecht Offshore Drilling Finance Ltd. (OODFL) to 'BB' from 'BB+'. The Rating Outlook is Negative. A full list of rating actions follows at the end of this press release.
The rating actions reflect: (i) the credit quality of the Odebrecht group, (ii) Fitch's view related to Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (Petrobras') willingness to honor underlying charter and service agreements in the event of a performance-related breach; (iii) the continued pressure on global day rates and asset values caused by stressed oil prices and changes in worldwide supply and demand dynamics; (iv) heightened medium-term re-chartering risk, and (v) still weak albeit improving performance of certain assets backing OODFL.
The ratings are ultimately supported by the underlying long-term contracts with Petrobras, and the growing importance of Odebrecht Oleo e Gas S.A. (OOG, oil and gas arm of Brazilian-based Odebrecht Group) as an oil service provider. Furthermore, the majority of the vessels backing these transactions are state of the art ultra-deepwater (UDW) assets. While day rates within the Odebrecht fleet remain within the median of similar vessels contracted by Petrobras, the continued decline in global day rates may increase the risk of contract restructuring or termination, as reflected by the Negative Outlook. The Negative Outlook also reflects uncertainties related to Petrobras and the ongoing Lava-Jato investigations.
KEY RATING DRIVERS
Sponsor's Credit Quality
On June 30, 2015 Fitch downgraded the Issuer Default Ratings of Odebrecht Engenharia e Construcao S.A., one of the most relevant entities within the Odebrecht Group, from 'BBB' to 'BBB-' and assigned the ratings a Negative Outlook.
The structured transactions are directly and indirectly exposed to the credit quality of OOG and the overall Odebrecht group. The charter and service agreements have termination clauses that include bankruptcy of the sponsor and performance-related deficiencies, such as extended down time. Furthermore, due to the operating nature of the asset, sponsor support may be needed in cases of extended downtime, extraordinary capital expenditures (capex) needs or increasing operating expenses.
Willingness to Honor Existing Charter & Services Agreements
Petrobras has indicated its intention to continue honoring the terms of existing charter and services agreements; however, the company recently announced a 37% reduction in capex investments over the next five years. Although the exploration and production (E&P) contracts remain strategic capex investments and the bulk of Petrobras' fleet relates to production, Petrobras will likely favor the most strategic and best operating assets within its chartered fleet. Additionally, Petrobras may approach operators in an attempt to restructure certain contracts to reduce expenses over the medium term. While contracted day rates within the Odebrecht fleet remain below the median of dayrates within similar vessels contracted by Petrobras, the continued decline in global day rates may increase the risk of contract restructuring.
Exposure to Depressed Asset Prices
The current ratings are supported by the stability of cashflows expected to be generated under the existing Petrobras contracts. While Fitch does not expect these existing contracts to be terminated, the ongoing Lava-Jato investigations of the Odebrecht group heightens this risk.
Global day rates continue to decrease and the secondary market remains illiquid given the oversupply of UDW drilling rigs. Therefore, if the underlying charter and services agreements are terminated, the transactions may be exposed to current depressed market conditions.
Heightened Re-chartering Risk
OODFL is exposed to some element of re-chartering risk as two of the four assets backing the transaction are scheduled to expire in 2019 (Norbe VI) and 2020 (Tay IV), prior to the scheduled maturity of the program. While Fitch does not believe the current ban will ultimately impact the ability to re-charter in three years, it remains uncertain what impact this may have on OOG's future contracting with Petrobras. Furthermore, the recent decline in oil prices will negatively impact the day rates under which Norbe VI and Tay IV will ultimately be able to contract.
Performance Affecting DSCRs
Fitch believes the overall OOG fleet has shown some improvement in performance, but certain rigs related to OODFL have experienced isolated periods of extended downtime during 2014 and 2015 (see 'ASSET PERFORMANCE UPDATE' below for more detail). Not only does prolonged downtime increase the potential for contract termination, it causes a decrease in collections and debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) levels. The 12-month rolling DSCR for the previous four quarters (1.29x, 1.07x, 0.99x and 1.02x, respectively) averaged 1.09x through 2Q'15, below the 1.15x DSCR trigger for a cash retention event. As a result no dividends were released to OOG and the cash was trapped within the structure.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
The ratings are sensitive to changes in the credit quality of Petrobras as offtaker, implications of the ongoing investigations on the Odebrecht Group and resolution by the Brazilian General Comptroller (CGU) of the temporary ban review, changes in the credit quality of Odebrecht, and the operating performance of the underlying assets.
Additionally, the ratings are sensitive to changes in the Brazilian oil and gas industry dynamics and on Fitch's perception of Petrobras' willingness to honor the existing conditions under the contracts.
DUE DILIGENCE USAGE
No third party due diligence was provided or reviewed in relation to this rating action.
TRANSACTION SUMMARY
The Odebrecht Drilling Norbe VIII/IX Ltd notes are backed by the flows related to the charter and services agreements signed with Petrobras for the use of the dynamically positioned UDW drillships Norbe VIII and Norbe IX. The OODFL notes are backed by the flows related to the charter and services agreements signed with Petrobras for the use of the dynamically positioned UDW drillships ODN I and ODN II and the UDW semi-submersibles Norbe VI and ODN Tay IV. OOG is the operator of the drilling rigs and primary sponsor of the transactions. OOG is the largest Brazilian operator of UDW rigs chartered to Petrobras, with seven operating UDW rigs in its fleet.
ASSET PERFORMANCE UPDATE
During 2015, Norbe VIII and Norbe IX have performed well. During the first quarter of 2015 both vessels operated at performance operating levels of 94.7% and above 99%, respectively. In both cases, bonus payment was received during such period, resulting in economic uptimes of 95.2% and 107%, respectively.
During 1Q'15, some of the assets backing OODFL experienced performance challenges. Operational uptime levels were 81.9%, 95.7%, 84.8%, and 91.3% for ODN I, ODN II, Norbe VI and Tay IV, respectively. ODN II's relatively low average uptime during 1Q'15 was caused by electrical problems with the BOP. Norbe VI experienced some down time due to bad weather. OOG expects to reclassify the 56 hours of downtime as 'awaiting weather hours' (as permitted under the contract), which would result in a higher uptime as the day rate would be paid at 90% the contracted day rate for such period.
Fitch has downgraded the following ratings:
OODFL
--Series 2013-1 senior secured notes to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Negative;
--Series 2014-1 senior secured notes to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Negative.
Odebrecht Drilling Norbe VIII/IX Ltd.
--Series 2010-1 senior secured notes to 'BB' from 'BB+'; Outlook Negative.
TXMD:TherapeuticsMD prices equity offering.3.8M shares of common stock at $7.80 per share. Price now:$8.05
http://seekingalpha.com/news/2622105-therapeuticsmd-prices-equity-offering?app=1&uprof=44#email_link …
Big shorted, 1,242,121 shares sell? or short sell? $8.29 red in bid, 15:59:59, Market close
A great rabid dog. Total pumping.
Kroll Confident in Muni-Bond Insurers.Puerto Rico, in the oven
1:50 pm ET July 6, 2015 (Dow Jones) Print
13:50 EDT - As Puerto Rico edges closer to a possible default, rating agency Kroll is giving bond insurers which back billions of dollars of Puerto Rico debt a vote of confidence. The agency gives AA+ ratings to Assured Guaranty Municipal and National Public Finance Guarantee, saying recent events have "not progressed to a point that exceeds the level of stress we have previously incorporated in the rating analysis." Incorporated is an assumption that Puerto Rico losses of around 40% are seen by each insurer, but Knoll says their claims-paying resources are "sufficient to meet all requirements by a comfortable margin." (mike.cherney@wsj.com; @Mike_Cherney)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 06, 2015 13:50 ET (17:50 GMT)
I'm with you, all right, MU, after the Greek problem, takes off again.
http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Forecasts?s=MU:NSQ
Hedge Funds Are Mixed On MBIA
Summary
•Hedge funds are divided on MBIA.
•MBIA trades at a big discount to book value, but there are no near term catalysts.
•MBIA’s Puerto Rican exposure adds uncertainty to the stock.
By Jay Smith
Several hedge funds increased their holdings of MBIA (NYSE:MBI) in the first quarter. George Soros' Soros Fund increased its position by 15% to 1,937,715 shares from January to March 31. Joel Greenblatt's Gotham Asset Management increased its position by 3% to 36,529 shares. Prem Watsa's Fairfax Financial Holdings increased its position by 67% to 50,000 shares. Glenn Dubin's Highbridge Captial Management more than doubled its position by 109% to 36,315 shares. Like hedge funds, an insider, CEO Joseph Brown, also raised his stake. Brown bought 75,000 shares at an average price of $8.98 per share on June 19. Brown's purchase gives him 3,765,772 shares total.
Going the opposite way are several hedge funds that either decreased their position or bought put positions on the MBIA. Kevin Michael Ulrich and Anthony Davis' Anchorage Advisors was one of the put buyers. The fund established a put position worth $41.850 million in the first quarter. Mark Gallogly's Centerbridge Partners was another put buyer, having reported a put position of $21.1 million at the end of March. Several hedge funds reduced their MBIA exposure. D.E. Shaw decreased its position by 48% to 735,145 shares while Ken Griffin's Citadel Investment Group decreased its holdings by 32% to 725,702 shares. Israel Englander's Millennium Management decreased its position by 98% to 18,723 shares too.
Our research shows that following hedge funds can generate alpha. Our analysis shows that the 15 most popular small-cap stocks among hedge funds have outperformed the market by nearly a percentage point per month between 1999 and 2012. We have been forward testing the performance of these stock picks since the end of August 2012. These stocks managed to return more than 142% over the ensuing 2.5-plus years and outperformed the S&P 500 Index by over 84 percentage points.
The hedge funds that bought put positions or reduced their long positions made the right choice. MBIA is down 37% year to date, and down 45% in the last 12 months. Because MBIA is a bond insurer, the stock sold off on the news that Puerto Rico might not pay its debts in the future. According to MBIA's 10-Q, MBIA's subsidiary National Public Finance Guarantee Corp had $4.5 billion in gross insured par exposure to Puerto Rico at the end of the first quarter. Of the $4.5 billion of gross insured par exposure, $1.422 billion is exposure to the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority (PREPA) which analysts don't believe has the financial resources to service its $9 billion in debt. PREPA looked like it was going to default on its $400 million payment this Wednesday, although now it seems that PREPA and its creditors will find a workaround to avoid a default.
Even if a workaround is successful, MBIA's Puerto Rican problem is not going to go away. Puerto Rico simply has too much debt that its ailing economy cannot support. A bailout is unlikely, as the U.S. Federal government has said it will not bail out Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico is unlikely to grow its way out of the debt, as the country has been in a recession for almost a decade. Monetizing debt is also out of the question. Unlike the Federal government, Puerto Rico cannot print money to pay back its creditors. Unless Puerto Rico reaches a comprehensive restructuring with its creditors, Puerto Rico will be a cloud that hangs over MBIA for a while.
With shareholder's equity of $3.9 billion at the end of March 31 and a Standard & Poor's Rating of AA- for National Public Finance Guarantee Corp, MBIA will survive the Puerto Rico crisis unless the crisis spreads to other parts of the bond market outside of Puerto Rico. With a price to book value of 0.28, the bond insurer is arguably one of the cheapest stocks on the market today, but there are no immediate catalysts to send the stock up higher. MBIA needs a favorable Puerto Rico settlement or news of a big buyback for shares to rally higher.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3299015-hedge-funds-are-mixed-on-mbia
Rating Action: Moody's MBI:In the oven
RATINGS RATIONALE
Moody's ratings of securities that are insured by a financial guarantor are maintained at a level equal to the higher of a) the rating of the guarantor or b) the published underlying rating. The Baa1(sf) rating of the notes reflects this modified "credit substitution" approach and is now equal to the underlying rating of the notes without incorporating the benefit of a financial guaranty policy provided by MBIA Insurance Corporation (MBIA, insurance financial strength at B2; negative outlook).
Moody's Senior Vice President Scott Robinson commented: "The affirmation reflects deal performance that is in line with our expectations of the underlying reinsurance cash flows as well as the performance of the invested assets backing the liabilities." The rating agency noted that there has been minimal asset impairments and exposure to real estate-related structured finance securities has enabled the notes to avoid some of the investment pressures faced by other life insurance-linked securities.
Northwind Holdings, LLC's ratings were assigned by evaluating factors that Moody's considers relevant to the credit profile of the notes, such as (i) the demographics and actuarial experience of the referenced block of (re)insurance business, (ii) relevant industry experience for similar products/underwriting, (iii) review of independent actuarial report, including assumptions underlying projected cash flows, (iv) expected loss and probability of default estimated via stochastic and deterministic modeling of the insurance cash flows and the performance of invested assets, and (v) other factors believed to be applicable to the assessment of the creditworthiness of the transaction, such as a review of the structural, legal, and regulatory risks.
Northwind Holdings is the shareholder of Northwind Reinsurance Company (Northwind Re), a special purpose captive reinsurance company domiciled in Vermont. Northwind Re was set up for the sole purpose of executing reinsurance agreements with the following Unum subsidiaries: Provident Life and Accident Insurance Company, The Paul Revere Life Insurance Company, and Unum Life Insurance Company of America (collectively "Unum Lifecos": financial strength ratings of A2/stable outlook) to facilitate the funding of capital supporting a closed block of both active and disabled life reserves.
Factors that would lead to an upgrade or downgrade of the rating:
The following factors could place upward pressure on the rating: 1) continued pay down of principal in line with target amortization 2) actuarial experience exceeding expectations; and 3) company action level RBC ratio consistently at least 200%. Conversely, the following could place downward pressure on the rating: 1) pay down of principal less than targeted amortization 2) actuarial experience below expectations; and 3) company action level RBC ratio consistently below 200%.
https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-affirms-Unums-Northwind-insurance-linked-securities-at-Baa1sf-stable--PR_325918?WT.mc_id=
The main chart is negative, PO:$4.50
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?s=MBI
MBI: Was downgraded by MKM Partners from Buy to neutal, Prce target from $20.00 to $8.00
Btig Research downgraded from buy to neutra, no target
Puerto Rico Utility, Creditors Close to Deal to Avoid Default
http://www.wsj.com/articles/puerto-rico-utility-creditors-close-to-deal-to-avoid-default-1435699357
Puerto Rico Worries Put Focus On Municipal Bond Insurers
5:49 pm ET June 30, 2015 (Dow Jones)
By Mike Cherney
Calls by Puerto Rico Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla to restructure the island's $72 billion debt load is putting renewed focus on whether insurers who back billions of dollars' worth of Puerto Rico bonds can absorb the losses in the event of a default.
The situation threatens to derail what has been a modest comeback for municipal-bond insurers, who suffered losses during the 2008 financial crisis after guaranteeing risky mortgage-backed securities. Nearly 60% of new municipal bonds sold in 2005 carried bond insurance, according to Thomson Reuters data, a figure that plunged to 3.6% in 2012 before recovering to 6.6% so far this year.
Investors are growing increasingly concerned. The stock prices of two of the biggest insurers, Assured Guaranty Ltd. and MBIA Inc., have fallen 11% and 28%, respectively, since Friday's close as analysts fret over whether the insurers can make good on their promises.
Bond insurers agree to make scheduled principal and interest payments if the municipality that sold the bond fails to pay. Investors expected Puerto Rico to have trouble paying bonds from some of its most stressed public authorities, a situation that analysts said appeared manageable for the insurers. But Mr. Padilla in a speech Monday said a more comprehensive restructuring plan is needed that could impact more of Puerto Rico's bonds.
As of March 31, Assured Guaranty backed roughly $10 billion in Puerto Rico principal and interest payments, and MBIA's National Public Finance Guarantee Corp. unit backed another $10 billion, according to financial documents from the insurers. Assured says it has $12 billion in claims-paying resources and National has about $4.9 billion, according to financial documents, though investors are likely to recover some value from Puerto Rico even if there is a restructuring.
The insurers also would have years to make the payments, given that some of Puerto Rico's bonds don't mature for decades. Still, significant losses could lead to fresh downgrades of the insurers' credit ratings, which would make it more difficult for them to write insurance policies on newly issued bonds.
In a research note last week, before Mr. Padilla's most recent comments, analysts at Barclays said that present-value losses of $750 million would "materially damage" MBIA and "potentially cause rating downgrades and diminished ability to write new business." Across two of Assured's subsidiaries, the analysts put the combined figure at $1.75 billion.
Mikhail Foux, head of municipal strategy at Barclays, said potential losses are now "more likely" to hit those numbers given the recent shift in Puerto Rico's stance.
Earlier in June, Moody's Investors Service said a "widespread, systemic default" could have a "significant adverse impact on the credit profiles and ratings" of some insurers.
Previously, "the governor was stressing the importance of maintaining access to the capital markets and paying debts when they come due," said James Eck, vice president and senior credit officer at Moody's. "It appears that maybe that desire is no longer feasible."
Despite the concerns about Puerto Rico, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Monday left unchanged the double-A ratings on Assured's subsidiaries and the double-A-minus rating on National. Insurers including Assured and National are also making payments in full on bonds tied to Detroit's bankruptcy, according to a report earlier this year from Kroll Bond Rating Agency.
Bond investors are still putting some faith in insurance, as Puerto Rico bonds that are backed by Assured and National are trading at higher prices than those on similar uninsured debt. Clark Wagner, director of fixed income at First Investors Management Co., said Tuesday that his firm sold a Puerto Rico bond insured by National and got nearly 100 cents on the dollar.
Puerto Rico bond prices have fallen broadly this week, with some bonds down roughly 11%.
Mr. Wagner said his firm sold the bond because he doesn't "want to go through this whole [restructuring] process," even though he expects investors that own the bond will ultimately get repaid in full.
Write to Mike Cherney at mike.cherney@wsj.com
Access Investor Kit for Assured Guaranty Ltd.
Visit http://www.companyspotlight.com/partner?cp_code=P479&isin=BMG0585R1060
Access Investor Kit for MBIA, Inc.
Visit http://www.companyspotlight.com/partner?cp_code=P479&isin=US55262C1009
Subscribe to WSJ: http://online.wsj.com?mod=djnwires
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
June 30, 2015 17:49 ET (21:49 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2015 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
MBI: Another dead cat, follows the path of DRL.Direct BK!!!
MBIA plunges further as Puerto Rico mulls bankruptcy
http://m.seekingalpha.com/news/2606845?source=ansh … $MBI, $AGO, $AMBC
*Option Alert: MBIA Jul $6 Call Sweep; 1050 Contracts Traded at Asj @$0.23
Benzinga
MBI:On tuesday, S&P lowered its rating on Puerto Rican bebt to CCC- from CCC+ with negative Outlook as governor debt under BK protection
6/30/2015 11.07 HS (MT NEWSWIRES)
MBI:On tuesday, S&P lowered its rating on Puerto Rican bebt to CCC- from CCC+ with negative Outlook as governor debt under BK protection
6/30/2015 11.07 HS (MT NEWSWIRES)
MU: First transaction, 472,675 shares, buy $$18.96 Green in ask +245,250 shares buy $18:97 Green in ask+ 198,492 shares buy $19.00 9:32hs
MU, Time to buy RSI(14)11.93Total Oversold!Rebound from 15% to 20% this short week. Friday holiday for july 4
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p26099102557&a=264845671
MU:Analyst Ratings Network: Consensus Price Target: $31.25 (66.84% upside) Today, update.
Ratings Breakdown: 4 Sell Rating(s), 4 Hold Rating(s), 25 Buy Rating(s), 1 Strong Buy Rating(s)
Consensus Rating: Buy (Score: 2.68)
Consensus Price Target: $31.25 (66.84% upside)
6/29/2016 Berstein analyst Mark C.Newman Reiteratd Outperform Lower Price Trget from $45.00 to $28.00
6/29/2015 Wells Fargo & Co. Reiterated Rating Underperform
6/29/2015 Raymond James Reiterated Rating Strong-Buy $40.00 - $38.00
6/29/2015 Argus Lower Price Target Buy $41.00 - $32.00
6/29/2015 JPMorgan Chase & Co. Lower Price Target Overweight $33.00 - $29.00
6/29/2015 Evercore ISI Lower Price Target Buy $38.00 - $30.00
6/29/2015 Mizuho Reiterated Rating Hold Price Target from $37.00 to $30.00
After Hour. One block of 100,000.00 shares $19.00 Green
A little more patience,