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Would be nice to see those 52 million short shares get squeezed.
So true. I have inadvertently posted old news as new when I didn't carefully look at it. Of course my first response was "YES!" when I saw "new" news for Capstone. The disappointment followed seconds later.
RE Llyod20 post# 12974
I would recommend "How to leverage Old News into New News." Just joking, but why would Investrend run FinancialWire's "Capstone Turbine Secures Multi-Unit Order" 06/28 08:35 AM which is the exact same news, word for word, from 6 days ago concerning the Horizon Power System's 12 unit order? This came over my trading platform this morning. Perhaps Investrend is just a bit slow as GlobeNewswire, DJ RealTimeNews, and MidnightTrader all came out with the same report on 6/22.
Corrections to my last post:
except that due the overabundance of domestic oil should read "except that due the overabundance of domestic gas"
The only remaining issue keeping the power industry moving back towards gas should read "The only remaining issue keeping the power industry moving back towards coal"
sorry
No peak oil in sight: We’ve got an unprecedented upsurge in global oil production underway
Oil supply surge could risk price collapse - Harvard analysis
Exxon CEO:'Losing our shirts' on natural gas price
Not sure what this portends for Capstone, except that due the overabundance of domestic oil the oil majors are now using the same advanced technology (horizontal drilling and fracking) to extract gas liquids and have capped pure natural gas wells. The fact remains that most of those sites are in remote locations and require an energy source and an acceptable way to handle flaring, both of which Capstone technology can provide.
Noteworthy is the fact that Henry Hub natural gas prices have gained almost a buck since the low on April 19 (Will Natural Gas Hit $3? I think so.) Just over 3 years or so ago Henry Hub was $13+. As the price of natgas rises the spread between coal and gas narrows. The only remaining issue keeping the power industry moving back towards gas are the clean air regulations.
As you may note in the referenced articles China is likely to attempt to duplicate the US shale play model. This would bode well for Capstone as long as the Chinese don't reverse engineer microturbines and sell them at Harbor Freight for $99, plus a 20% discount, plus a free gift.
A prolonged fall in oil prices would more than likely adversely affect all "Green" technology as it has so often in the past. Fuel efficient autos and trucks would be the first wave to be impacted in my opinion. Americans have always loved their gas guzzling big autos and pick-ups. We've seen this before in the not so recent past. Congress was even supporting the purchase the purchase of larger vehicles providing a 100% write off in the first year if they were used for business purposes.
Rick Santelli, CNBC, just did a shout out for "Duel Fuel" vehicles as the answer to transportation efficiency. I note that WPRT is doing a nice retrace since it low of $22.27 on June 4 to $35.35 right now. As I've mentioned before I sold all of my WPRT to purchase more Capstone...boy has that hurt.
Thanks for the chart Bill, at least I think I thank you. The trend in short interest isn't very pretty. If Capstone could turn a profit it would be the mother of short covering for sure.
"How about.."Mate with a Capstone shareholder.""
Now I'm really confused. Mate with Captain Capstone? LOL.
We're starting to sound rather anemic--perhaps it is the unusually low volume today which could certainly use a boost. Hopefully, Miss Capstone will come and save the day.
I think fuel cells is what started me on my rant about Rio this morning. I had just read "Madza goes hummm" in the WSJ and this jumped out at me Mazda is also planning to introduce an electric car next year using hydrogen to fuel the rotary engine and generate power for the car's battery.
Fear? Yes. Did I bet on the wrong horse? Time will tell, but "Fuel Cell" sure seems to be popping up just about everywhere you look.
"Captain Microturbine is a very poor choice! LOL. I agree that is a BIG miss, and the visual of the individual, not the idea, is a poor representation of power. I would have loved to see a Miss Microturbine in a cape and thong. That would have drawn me to the wall like an irresistable magnet." At least we agree on something LOL. The auto shows always have hot babes touting their product lines. I like your vision of "Miss Microturbine" although I would rename her Mate Capstone and incorporate the slogan "Mate with a Capstone."
I agree too that there are two sides to every story. Composing my message, during the wee hours this morning, I ran across article after article describing the Rio +20 Summit as an Epic Failure. Of course, you have to take it all in with a grain of salt and attempt to understand what the particular author's own agenda might be (Google up "Rio +20 success" then "Rio +20 failure" and then pick your flavor. We've got a fascinating interview up with the former Norwegian prime minister Gro Harlem Brundtland, who Watts describes as "one of the chief architects of the first Rio Earth summit in 1992". We can blame the Eurozone crisis and the US election, in part, for Rio+20's lack of ambition, she suggests: "The absences [of heads of state] are not good and they don't look good. One explanation is the terrible difficulties in Europe. The Europeans would normally feel like they should be here," she told the Guardian. "The financial and economic problems that some countries face don't make it easier for them to agree on things that they would have agreed to before 2008."
In the US, she saw a worrying decline in political support for environmental issues. "The election scene is an obvious factor in the decision by Obama not to be here. The climate issue on the American scene has been really difficult for years and in many ways it is worse now than three or four years ago. The Republican right – the Tea party, etc – are building around climate denial. In that sense, the American scene is deteriorating on these issues."
the international Rio Earth Summit" may not have been the best way to burn cash--
"I disagree strongly! While CPST has been previously attending localized trade events in particular countries, This was a UN international summit drawing in people/ companies/ countires from around the world and especially the Western Hemisphere. I am not sure there could be a better venue to promote CPST." I can agree with that also, although it would be difficult to calculate the payback. That is why I would be interested in what the total outlay was for taking the lead sponsor position of "The Future We Want" Pavilion and if that prime position has an added payback. Hopefully the exposure will at least sow some seeds that will bear fruit.
I'm waiting for your suggestion concerning the "Mate Capstone" ad campaign to come out, as I know for sure that it would draw a captive audience like you and me for instance. This was in Rio for goodness sakes and a thong would be entirely appropriate attire. Captain Capstone reminds me of the old ads in the back of comic books that showed the skinny guy on the beach getting sand kicked in his face. The ad promised to bulk you up where you too could stroll the beach with confidence.
The Future We Want? I have advocated spending some Capstone cash to expand awareness of Capstone Turbine's product line at trade shows, a slot on CNBC, etc., but have my doubts about the wisdom of doing so at Rio +20. After reading reviews and summaries of The United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development, or Rio +20, I'm left with a sinking feeling that being "The title corporate sponsor of The Future We Want Pavilion at the international Rio Earth Summit" may not have been the best way to burn cash--jmho. Due world events, e.g. the continuing crisis in the EU, turmoil in Egypt, and election campaigning here at home there was a notable absence of world leaders in attendance.
While doing a bit of research on the topic I thought I would Google up some photos of the 136 x 20-foot wall, that Capstone sponsored along with the pavilion. It wasn't that easy to find any--give it a try. The best I came up with was The Future We Want media page. Capstone's Distributed Energy Calculator is seen in image 9 from the top, and image 10 which features DJ, apparently tele-conferencing, on two flat screens. The best photos of The Wall are seen on Capstone's Official Blog home page under the title of "Getting Ready for Rio." I would be interested to know how much was spent on this PR initiative and think the question should be posed at the Q1 CC.
The concept of the Official Blog revolves around the musings of the author, and I'm not kidding, Captain Microturbine. This has to be the lamest promotional concept that I have ever seen and whoever came up with it should be fired. This parody of Batman, or who ever, only invites ridicule. What do you say to your fellow world leader when this guy jumps in your face? I suspect most hurry up just a tad to move on down the wall.
The pity of it all, at least to me, is that I own a huge chunk of Capstone and still believe in the technology. I hope, of course, that Capstone's presence at Rio +20 generated some interest and sales leads. Traveling to Rio to chat up the Special Envoy and Coordinator for the Bureau of Energy Resources Carlos Pascual, and the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Transformation Dr. Robert Ichord, both from the US State Department, seems a bit out of the way, but if the venue opened that door and the meet and greet results in higher visibility for Capstone I can't complain. It would have been a bit more news worthy to announce that the executives from Capstone slapped some skin with special envoys from Russia, China, Japan, and Africa.
The spike in volume culminated on Friday by a jump of more than triple the previous day's number and will have investors lined up on Monday waiting to see what's coming next.
BOHICA? I'll give credit to VFCs Stockhouse though; they do stay positive on Capstone. Hopefully a last minute of several million shares traded will pull our pants back up.
Another good article on the Wrightspeed Route.
Excerpt: Wrightspeed received the highest application score of the applicants. The scoring criteria were: project feasibility, project budget, match funding, economic benefit, qualifications of project team, and market development. All four awardees received the amounts they requested, including Zero Motorcycles and Tesla Motors.
Also from Fleets and Fuels:
“The grant funds will accelerate manufacturing of Wrightspeed’s Route retrofit powertrain for the surprisingly large medium duty commercial fleet market, which boasts 2 million trucks in the U.S. alone,” the company says.
Horizon Power Systems web site.Horizon Power Systems web site. Well done site extolling the benefits of Capstone Turbines, their applications, Factory Warranty program, and real time up and running examples of power supply installations.
CA Energy Commission awarding Wrightspeed $5.789M grant for retrofit range-extended electric powertrain for medium-duty commercial vehicles Wrightspeed Route regular maintenance consists only of air filter and fuel filter changes.
The Wrightspeed Route generator has only one moving part, no lubrication system (air bearings) and no cooling system.
The Route motors have only one moving part.
Just got home from doing some errands and looked at the charts. My response was the same as your's...Wow, a 2 million block at the close! Looks great to me, especially since the last two day take down.
Thanks for the sales and shorts chart. Looking at the chart, sales announcements don't always result in a pop (my generalization was wrong. It would seem the shorts exert more control. In any case, any order is a good order, especially one for immediate delivery and commissioning.
Normally, at least of late, the stock would have a nice pop on orders news. At the moment there is a gain d/d but certainly not a pop therefore ihno (I have no opinion) as to share price.
I do like the news that the units in the Horizon Power Systems order will be installed and commissioned later this summer. I especially like the ESPs (Electrical Submersible Pumps) utilization and that the Capstones will provide a multi-purpose solution at the wellhead, i.e. they will take care of the flare problem while providing power to the submersible pumps and other auxiliaries.
Could be, I do remember the post. Check it out Russia’s Gazprom To Work With Japan On LNG Projects and Gazprom is increasingly favouring LNG over pipeline gas. To pipe or ship?
I think I mentioned that domestic gas is going to get exported, one way or another. Alaskan Pipeline to Fuel US LNG Exports The logistics of the project should be solved within a year, so the only possible obstacle will be a political one if US politicians think its smarter to reinject gas back into the ground rather than selling it on the world market. Hopefully, the politicians will just stay out of the way on this one. Right...Drill for it then reinject it. Sounds about as smart as a politician. Why in the world would the oil and gas industry do something this stupid?
BTW, I'm with you 100% on your last sentence.
Thanks Gene. I'll pass those links along to some of my friends in the LNGC market.
Green Environment receives order I seem to recall seeing this before, but the release date is today June 20.
That is a pretty chart for sure. "Breakout" has a nice ring to it.
I'll take the 2 cents at 5 million in volume. Looks good today.
With a over a million bid on level 2 vs about 50k on the ask it would seem difficult to hold it down.
20 seconds later a cool 1 million bid on NSDQ
10 million bid at $1.05 on ARCX.
10 seconds later gone.
Gene,
Thanks to further info on Lukoil. I've got plenty of articles from trade journals which give further insight into Russia's Gas Plays. If there is any interest I would be happy to post some. They, the Russians, definitely have huge market potential for Capstone Turbines, and hopefully the Lukoil project will spur them on just as the Eagle Ford installs gain traction here due visibility.
"The downgrade was released about 4:30 AM EST..News 8:30 AM EST..aren't most CA people in dreamland at that EST time?" That brings chuckle for sure, and I mean that good naturedly. My California born wife will attest to that. LOL.
Okay, enough said on the irrational exuberance comments. There are very few things I disagree with you on actually, and I do consider you the resident expert on Capstone. I'm certainly not gloating and didn't mean to snipe. I offer you an apology and we'll hopefully agree to disagree. At the same time I hope your views are dead on and I wouldn't expect to see you not stand by them. Believe me, I will be the first to admit when I'm wrong.
I'm just a bit bummed about some of the "analysts'," who, btw, I don't consider experts, interpreting the Q4 CC as I did. The problem with the MSM analysts is that they have larger followings who in turn tend to heed the advice or take it at face value. We have all seen downgrades that can cause a company to take a pretty close haircut. A downgrade from outperform to market perform certainly isn't a tipping point--at least I hope not.
All things said the price is still holding up today, at least so far. I just hope it's not the beginning of another short churn that we wrote about last week prior to the CC.
Respectively,
Seasound
Yes it is. The problem though is this is good old news. I don't know what the payment schedule is, i.e. form order placement, delivery, and commissioning, but 5 of the total units have been installed and commissioned. Perhaps this news was trotted out to hopefully off-set the downgrade this morning from FBR Capital. The "Fool" chimed in also so I guess we'll see the Foolish effect in play today too.
I suppose the irrational exuberance was just that--sad to say.
Of course I could be totally wrong, which of course I hope I am.
I'm certainly with Iheartweimers, the Capt'ns charts rock. Those plus the well documented, and continually updated lead-in to the message board are what caught my attention initially and influenced my decision to create an account to post.
Question...did anyone else notice the 10+ million share bid, on the Nasdaq, @ $1.05 during the last minute of trading today? Even as it floated to the top of level 2 the price continued to decline. What the heck was that?
I would just like to see it slightly above 1/2 full. My concerns still remain cash burn and profitability. There was no clear road map given as to when or how profitability will be reached.
One positive that I did take away was "we are going to focus on the known viable markets and steer clear of niche opportunities." That would certainly seem a better strategy in using the 50 million to me.
Russia, as a continued viable market, is a bit cloudy as Putin sends war ships to Syria. Not sure what that would do to sales if things heat up more over there.
Although I'm new to posting on this site, I'm not new to Capstone. I've watched it for some 15 years off and on. While new to posting on this board I have lurked for quite some time and find it to be one of the most professional boards out there, i.e., no bashing, flaming, etc.. I was just surprised at the "irrational exuberance" last Thursday after hours.
June 17 Weekly Stock Watch also seems to be taking more of a wait and see stance now and is hedging on the "picking up a few shares around a buck mantra..." "For the time being, however, it’s tough to count on CPST sustaining any gains until profitability is met."
A correction to the LNG receiving terminal siting. I meant to say Osaka and Himeji vs Tobata. A good overview is available here.
Needless to say, the opportunities are there. We need a distributor in Japan that can mend fences (Capstone's loss of face from prior mis-steps in Japan.) The window is open as is the collective mind of the Japanese population. There has never been a serious spill, or leak connected with the receiving and storage of LNG in Japan. Both of the aforementioned plants were in operation during the great Kobe earthquake and other than local downstream distribution issues in Kobe neither was adversely affected.
Even if the Nuclear plants are restarted I think C1000s for UPS could still play a role in the reliable energy equation as it pertains to factories.
Noda Ends Japan Nuclear Freeze Crank 'em up or its going to be one hot summer.
In the meantime marketing C1000s for distributed energy to Japan's many small towns and factories still makes sense. Japan has a pretty robust natgas infrastructure in place already and both Osaka and Tobata (not far from Kobe) have LNG receiving terminals.
The nation’s biggest business lobby had warned power outages would lead to factory shutdowns at companies including Sharp Corp. and Panasonic Corp., threatening an economic recovery in the cities of Osaka, Kyoto and Kobe.
Companies including Komatsu Ltd. (6301) and NEC Corp. (6701) have said the nuclear restarts are needed to avert power shortages. Both Komatsu Chairman Masahiro Sakane and NEC Chairman Kaoru Yano have talked about moving their production overseas if there is insufficient power for their factories.
I agree on all points. The voodoo accounting makes things look up a bit, but as you say, a miss on the quarter revenue would have been disastrous. It only squeaked by as it was.
Record orders and backlog look nice, but until Capstone figures out a way to stop selling product at a loss it matters not a wit.
I'm still surprised that none of the analyst asked about the Japan market as nothing was mentioned in the CC.
The cash burn is still cause for alarm, even with the 50 million seed money to start the new fiscal year with. "Maintaining a strong balance sheet is another primary area of focus. With $50 million in cash at year end, we believe we have ample liquidity to carry out our initiatives in 2013 and beyond.""We believe we have?" I would like to hear you say
"we have ample liquidity..." "We believe" is about the same as saying that you don't know. I think I've heard another variation of this story before, perhaps just last year during a CC where DJ stated that he didn't expect to have to resort to dilution again. I'll have to do a bit of research to see if memory serves me correctly.
"$2.7 million net increase in SG&A expenses resulted from an increase in bad debt expense, professional services, marketing and consulting" Is this broken out in the 10K? I'll take a look myself but it seems a bit creative to lump in the bad debt with other SGA expenses. At what point does the "bad" debt get written off?
"Seems the same trading range will continue unless there is some type of fundamental change or news..imo.." My opinion also. The only fundamental change or news that I can see is GE. The CC was lean on the road map to profits...you can only squeeze so much juice out of a (insert fruit of your choice.)
All I can do at this point is hope, which is what got me in so deep here to begin with. I just hope that hope doesn't spring eternal which would be followed by dread.
Still haven't heard an explanation of that "About Time" comment. I must be missing something, although I did read the transcript 3 times after my last post.
Thanks for the well reasoned, as always, reply.
My comments about "Fools" was just that...Motley crew or whatever, I sure wasn't directing that to you.
Thanks too for the explanation of the "missing money." I do note in your explanation that they would be exercisable at a $1.55 which would yield me "tons" of money, as I have tons in. I have been in and out, taking relatively small gains but my core remains--I just hope it doesn't become a Fukashima Daiichi (which I don't believe is a chart symbol LOL.)
As I've said many times "I believe in the product." I of course like the "growth numbers" but again, do get a bit worried when I hear DJ trot out the same verbiage about cost controls, parts necessitating OT to obtain (although he did say the 50 million will help the non-believers walk the aisle,) LEED inititive (same as converting the non-belivers,) scrap (is Capstone personnel turnover high or trial and error causing this,) plant capacity (ramped up 10% since last CC which I would think is good.) We, the stakeholders, are in this to make money. At some point the increase in production Q/Q and Y/Y will have to result in higher margins and profitability. How to get to that point seems to be a tad elusive and several of the analyst seemed to be less inclined to take the bait this time around.
Turbine rotors, no doubt, are the highest cost component within each unit. This part isn't something that is easily farmed out to the lowest bidder, nor should it be. A rotor spinning up at 96,000 rpm must meet some very stringent specs. The 2 stage turbine with inter-cooler will be even more complex to produce. I seem to recall that it is expected to result in a 2% gain in efficiency. Does achieving 2 additional percent efficiency result in a higher margin package--it will take some serious R&D to get there. I did hear something about the DOE and 5 million, but not sure it pertained to this (will check that out later.) Material costs in the hot end of the Capstone module will remain the highest cost component and I doubt that there will be any major cost savings found there in the future. Inflation is breaking out everywhere no matter what the spin masters tell us.
Where does that leave us? Higher pricing without hurting market penetration. R&D hopefully is maturing, so we can hope that cost will decline. Parts procurement with marginal price reductions seems to be in place with 3 year agreements, etc. We are, running out of bullets, unless there is something that I missed.
Like you, Analyst's estimates and recommendations don't really impress me or move me, but they can sure move the price of a stock. They are what they are and not much that we can do about that. I just hope we don't suffer from 8 weeks of sideways movement.
I will read the transcript over and over tomorrow. Just too much happening today to read it although I did listen to CC. I especially want to read about the current world pricing of oil and gas, both of which are headed down. I do believe I heard DJ mention something about pricing of hydro-carbons being a positive factor in the KW/BTU matrix.
Oh, one more thing...I do realize the comments were made by you, just wondering what you mean by "about time." The only real positive that I took away from the whole show today was gross margin being 5% above zero.
As you are prone to say "Tomorrow will tell the tale." I just hope it isn't a severe hang-over because I'm all in.
My head hurts and I'm going to join Lloyd with a 12 pack and a litre of Absolute.
Thanks to Daberfeldy over at Investor's Village
Shell Exec: Asia to Be North America's NatGas Sponge
Asia will represent the "lion's share" of natural gas demand growth in the coming years, Royal Dutch Shell plc's Marvin Odum, director of the company's America's upstream business, told a Washington, DC, audience last week.
"Much of the foreseeable growth in energy demand will come from Asia. Roughly half of the demand increase will come from China and India, with the majority of that from China. Southeast Asia, traditionally an energy exporting region, also expects to double its energy demand in that time horizon," Odum said at the Canadian American Business Council Spring Policy Forum.
"And by 2030, Chinese demand could be more than one-and-a-half times as high as the next-largest energy consumer: the United States."
A few years ago China's energy thirst would have struck fear in the hearts of North American political and business interests. But now that Canada and the United States have something to sell -- namely shale gas -- Asia's demand growth represents an opportunity rather than a threat.
"LNG [liquefied natural gas] exports to Asia can open a market for North America -- and especially Canada -- worth billions of dollars," Odum said. "It could sustain investments, jobs and provide long-term income through royalties and taxes here, while helping China and the rest of emerging Asia secure a lower-carbon energy future there."
The International Energy Agency recently said that over the next five years China will more than double its natural gas consumption, while low gas prices will continue to support the U.S. economy and the United States becomes a net exporter of LNG.
"It's true that coal still drives much of their energy growth today; but Chinese leaders are famous for taking the long view," Odum said. "They know they need cleaner, more sustainable ways to fuel their continued economic growth. They are making capital investments and policy decisions to that end. An important example of that -- important especially for Canadian and American leaders -- is China's focus on natural gas…a cleaner option to almost any other energy source available at scale today."
Odum said Shell executives expect China to drive 50% of the world's growth in gas demand during the period until 2020. "To meet these demand projections, China is looking to expand its domestic natural gas production and import natural gas by pipeline from the Caspian region. But it will also need liquefied natural gas -- or LNG -- imported from even further abroad."
Demand for LNG across Asia is likely to grow by more than 80 million metric tons per year between now and 2020, Odum said. "This is equivalent to another Japan, which imported a record 83 million metric tones of LNG in 2011, following the tragedy at the Fukushima nuclear plant.
"What's even more significant is that most of that growth is for commercial, industrial and residential needs. When China decides to ramp up construction of natural gas power plants, the number could be really eye-popping."
Asia is looking to North America to help meet its demand, and North American energy interests are working to answer the call. Alberta and British Columbia alone are probably sitting on more than 200 Tcf of competitive natural gas, Odum said. Natural gas production from tight shale and sandstone in the United States and Canada nearly doubled between 2005 and 2010.
But others are working to meet Asian gas demand, notably Australia, Odum said. "Australia already exports around 26 [million metric tons per year (mtpa)] of LNG to Asia, and the Aussies have plans on the table for up to 80 mtpa. Countries like Malaysia, Indonesia and Qatar are developing opportunities for their own natural resources and have the advantage of being just around the corner from the Chinese market. So even as long-term global demand for energy will skyrocket, we're seeing intense competition and a short window of opportunity now in key energy markets."