Thanks for the well reasoned, as always, reply.
My comments about "Fools" was just that...Motley crew or whatever, I sure wasn't directing that to you.
Thanks too for the explanation of the "missing money." I do note in your explanation that they would be exercisable at a $1.55 which would yield me "tons" of money, as I have tons in. I have been in and out, taking relatively small gains but my core remains--I just hope it doesn't become a Fukashima Daiichi (which I don't believe is a chart symbol LOL.)
As I've said many times "I believe in the product." I of course like the "growth numbers" but again, do get a bit worried when I hear DJ trot out the same verbiage about cost controls, parts necessitating OT to obtain (although he did say the 50 million will help the non-believers walk the aisle,) LEED inititive (same as converting the non-belivers,) scrap (is Capstone personnel turnover high or trial and error causing this,) plant capacity (ramped up 10% since last CC which I would think is good.) We, the stakeholders, are in this to make money. At some point the increase in production Q/Q and Y/Y will have to result in higher margins and profitability. How to get to that point seems to be a tad elusive and several of the analyst seemed to be less inclined to take the bait this time around.
Turbine rotors, no doubt, are the highest cost component within each unit. This part isn't something that is easily farmed out to the lowest bidder, nor should it be. A rotor spinning up at 96,000 rpm must meet some very stringent specs. The 2 stage turbine with inter-cooler will be even more complex to produce. I seem to recall that it is expected to result in a 2% gain in efficiency. Does achieving 2 additional percent efficiency result in a higher margin package--it will take some serious R&D to get there. I did hear something about the DOE and 5 million, but not sure it pertained to this (will check that out later.) Material costs in the hot end of the Capstone module will remain the highest cost component and I doubt that there will be any major cost savings found there in the future. Inflation is breaking out everywhere no matter what the spin masters tell us.
Where does that leave us? Higher pricing without hurting market penetration. R&D hopefully is maturing, so we can hope that cost will decline. Parts procurement with marginal price reductions seems to be in place with 3 year agreements, etc. We are, running out of bullets, unless there is something that I missed.
Like you, Analyst's estimates and recommendations don't really impress me or move me, but they can sure move the price of a stock. They are what they are and not much that we can do about that. I just hope we don't suffer from 8 weeks of sideways movement.
I will read the transcript over and over tomorrow. Just too much happening today to read it although I did listen to CC. I especially want to read about the current world pricing of oil and gas, both of which are headed down. I do believe I heard DJ mention something about pricing of hydro-carbons being a positive factor in the KW/BTU matrix.
Oh, one more thing...I do realize the comments were made by you, just wondering what you mean by "about time." The only real positive that I took away from the whole show today was gross margin being 5% above zero.
As you are prone to say "Tomorrow will tell the tale." I just hope it isn't a severe hang-over because I'm all in.
