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wavxmaster
Yes Wave is low on funds and this is an impediment to their progress. Yes they have a number of projects with enterprises and there is effort required to make trusted computing fit (integrate)in with an existing infrastructure and existing policy and procedures. Thus there is a tension that will only grow as the opportunities grow. A higher share price and increasing sales are the solutions.
Ispro
That was what I was told. But I have no indication that Microsoft will affirmatively help Wave or steer people to wave.
Barge
I don't think there is much dispute that there is potential and that since consumers constitute the other half of the pie, Wave is and needs to be focused on this space as well. Where there are divergent opinions is when will the consumer market become a market for trusted services. When will there be sufficient TPMs in consumer computers. When will consumer operating systems work with TPMs. When will enterprises add TPM servers so they can interact safelt with their consumer counterparts.
When I read your posts, I get the impression that you think very shortly (like early 2007). I have trouble seeing this becoming really relevant until 2008 although I can envision Apple trying something with secure content and TPMs next year.
Time will tell.
Ispro
This was the session that I attended and got to talk with SKS after the meeting.
Dig
I was going to respond to Blue. I don't think you praise current behavior if its the only response to prior bad behavior. But for me the more important issue is that you don't cut off your nose to spit your face. If it makes sense going forward given where you are, do it. But don't forget that you screwed up in the past.
I find much of the discussion flipping between future strategy and past sins. If one feels that every current decion is bad and your basis is soley that past decisions were bad, then I think the thinking is flawed. Bu tthat doesn't mean the past was good and people shouldn't raise issues or cencerns especially if the behavior continues..
Dave
I think you are mixing different issues together. i wasn't implying that providng loans and receiving interest and then having to write it all off wasn't a loss. Of course it is.
The topic on hand was cash outflow against Wave's meager cash position. The "interest" is not a cash outflow. Principal loans are a cash outflow.
As for the 6 million dollar question, please see my prior post. It is more likely that this is the explanation than they changed the allocation basis. But I haven't studied the situation.
If you are concerned and want an answer quickly, a brief email to Feeney should lead to an explanation.
Dave
My quick read was that Wave gave Xpress the money and was charging them interest. The interest is being paid back in shares creating greater ownership of Xpress. Cash is not changing hands - just the principal
Dave
Don't know but possibly the earlier figures combined cash and accrued interest and the latter ones separated it out. The earlier figures you posted didn't have them separated so I inferred they didn't show cash and accrued interest separately. If you take totals, I think the progression makes sense.
And in reading this, the interest payments are not cash out of Wave but rather a charge to Xpress which transaltes into more ownership compared to Sarnoff I believe.
Dave
I don't see how what you showed means a 5.0 million dollar cash outlay each year. Can you help me deduce that. I realize they are paying something to them and getting shares back in exchange. But please explain your cash flow calcualtion. Thanks
Dig
I think the disclosure rules apply to most highly paid people with some authority. In theory Peter could be highly paid but be considered to have no authority but that would be rubbing salt into the wound. I don't knwo all those initials but you appear to spend more time on this than i.
Dig
No I don't beleive that SKS compensation is the principal source of dilution and I think the private placements are the principal sources. I don't beleive SKS just gets new options for no reason other than his ownership was diluted by the private placements. You seriously think that???
And yes reviewing the proxies with full disclosure of all compensation for all officers will highlight never before seen stuff. Whether SKS will have eye popping material and much more obscene than others will only be known then.
Dig
It seems that most take it as given that the employees at Waveexpress actually don't do much during the day and that the very senior people are paid for just hanging out becuase of their close relationship with Wave's board of directors. If this is true then most should be fired; but I don't know if this is true.
All I can see on the outside is the ongoing development progress of the service, small deals, no real revenue, and a place on Online Spotlight. From the outside, progress seems to be terribly slow in terms of deal making and the long term strategy is vague in terms of real plans and specifics. My discusions with wave may be slightly more enlightening but it comes down to relying on the CEO assessing whether an ongoing Waveexpress entity on Spotlight is worth the current cost in light of future plans and expectations. We may call SKS lots of things but he is not stupid or unaware that every placement dilutes his ownership and every dollar spent is a dollar not being spent on other business development efforts.
But I am not defending the employment of non working senior people. I just don't know what they are accomplishing each day.
That doesn't mean they aren't doing valuable things.
7 digit spends is not very low key but it is relative to the past. It i shealthy to raise these issues. But people shouldn't overreach on what they really know versus what they feel and think they know.
barge
When do you think Vista Ultimate will be widely available and purchased by consumers. Until that happens, I don't see content providers going crazy. So late 2007 ealry 2008 still seems reasonable to me.
Dave
The question is mothball Xpress and write off everything or maintain it in low key to leverage the postion on ONline Spotlight and subscription management expertise when the market is ready. We've pretty much eliminated making a big investment to try to launch a video service on our own.
I don't know wenough to evaluate the choices and the opportunities.Do you?
barge
I agree that the consumer space will just happen via some attractive application/service. The focus on enterprises has more to do with timing. It still seems as if enterpises will be utilizing TPMs broadly before consumers will. But I'm pretty confident that lots of companies are thinking of how to leverage TPMs to manage consumer subscriptions via the PC. And that is the main reason that Waveexpress still is supported by Wave (and not because of family relationships as some folks seem to think).
howder
certainly that are ingredients. But there are others.
First is the timely delivery of upgrades, fixes and new tools as new needs arise. Dell is counting on Wave to be looking ahead to where the market needs will be. dell wouldn't be messing around with this and wave if they didn't think it was important to their business results. They took their sweet time causing lots of angst here and joy on the bashers side; now it is pretty clear that they were methodically moving forward and it is becoming an important component in their value added services to companies
Second is the integration in other computing environments. in talking with wave, that has ranged from easy to hard based on what this is all migrating into. As any systems integrator knows, mixed envronments configured to varying polices and architectures with different products, makes it a challenge to tie in something new especially if it is pervasive. The good news here is that experience is extraordinarily valuable and a good outcome creates a great reference. And this has happened.
But it is a lot more intensive and slow going at the start than one can imagine in a global rollout.
Slate
Another thought about the RSA acquisition was RSA's reasons. It was usggested that PKI will become the industry standard for authentication in the future because every computer will have a TPM and Microsoft and Intel have settled on this as a standard. That would ultimately make some of RSA's products such as the one time passwords ultimately obsolete like Token Ring. Move on while you are doing well in the market.
Cisco
At a meeting, I heard an opinion that the TCG standard is being pushed by IBM and HP and that there were lots of forces pushing to go with the open standard. I also heard that although NAC was a real hot topic, there was still a lot of issues to work through before it was really good to go. An example was remediation - sounds good but what does it really mean in practice.
Wave strategy
I think these points have been raised at times in the past but worth thinking about.
A big OEM like Dell uses competing hardware from different vendors and changes from time to time. The changes are largely invisible to the user. The software they use especially where interfaces are involved does directly impact the user experience and changes are made much less frequently for that reason. So excellent execution and a minimum of issues are keys to remaining in place. If hardware vendors want to be in dell's box and it ties to a TPM, then Wave will get involved. If a vendor wants to play, they likely will need to work with Wave. That has some good implications with respect to certain devices such as FDE and biometrics for example. So PC OEMs are good for increasing connections to suppliers.
A service provider needs to standardize on PKI and work with TPMs to support trusted services in the future. If Wave can work with service providers to build their side of the transaction, the client side will need to be compatible. If its an important service provider, customers will repsond and if applicable help push the OEMs to have the right stuff in the box. Again a virtuous cycle. The government space is a good place to look for this and as others have pointed out the government space can become bigger and bigger depending on the functions involved.
The vertical pilots Wave discussed on their calls have some important and common attributes tied into this concept in addition to being a pilot for the numerous other similar vertical organizations.
We do a lot of digging to see progress. Sometimes it is also good to step back and consider the strategies that are driving the business decisions in this particular space.
Foam
It was an interesting meeting. About 50 people generally associated with IT security were in attendance. To my surprise the presentation was given by Steve Sprague and this particular meeting was triggered by many members asking and discussing protecting lap top files.
Generally there wasn't any really new information for avid readers of the board although there were many good questions and illustrations of how to leverage the TPM. And actually hearing the dialogue did bring things in better perspective for me.
I'd say the audience was generally not aware of TPMs (or perhaps their immediate use) but throughout the dialogue it was clear that many appreciated how it would solve a number of vexing issues for them. The dialogue as you might expect was reasonably technical in nature. One attendee had just purchased a small number of Dell laptaps for their college and was showing people Wave's interface for the biometric device.
Ramsey
First it was Dell who sent Wave to Envoy. I am thinking there are a number of software programs that the Army would want on PCs with the TPM software being just one element. As we discussed before, the clean install of a standard build is common for enterprises and I think that even includes customized changes to standard programs (my firm does this mainly diabling certain features). Although I don't know this, I thought it possible that the Army or other large government agencies would have an integrator or other means to manage IT including these builds.
ZZT
HP may not have to do anything. The Army could see that all their PCs are loaded with a software build containing the software they need. HP could sell the PCs wiped clean and have an integrator or Army IT do this work. Same with Dell. Or HP could do this work without having to make a deal with wave for bundling.
The HP Wave relationship is opaque to me and I'm not sure all the reasons they haven't utilized Wave more to date. Maybe all it owuld take is a good experience on a job such as this.
ok
I assumed it was there for presenations for the conference and not just for Wave. I'm almost positive it doesn't imply any connection to wave. HP is not there (yet?)
Slate
it wouldn't surprise me if he actually had some speaking lessions. The difference was very clear and it is not easy to just drop the hesitation. The other rational is that there is now more repeatable content and the hesitations go away if you can just dirve through your talk crisply.
Presentation
The examples of how other platforms work smoothly compared to Pcs and the probability of achieving this in the PC space are finally crisp and simple and compelling. I would also think the connection to Viiv with intel and even Diebold ATMs would also make good reference points for Wave.
The only disappointment would be that their real customer progress is not as far along as I would hope based on what inferences I could take from the presentation.
AWK
Perhaps it's me, but they could use a writer who writes in clear English. "Longhorn. HP base." Whatever that means.
At least I can see how they used the word Longhorn ( no relation to the old Microsoft name?) "HP base" - what does that mean. But it seems to say a new business desktop ( not a new TPM). Interesting that it took so long for a computer to appear and they used an integrated chip in the desktop.
Waltham Mass event
Can someone point me to the notice of a trusted computing discussion taking place at microsoft's Waltham ma office very soon, Wave will be there.
Vista/Seagate
Wave has repeatedly indicated that Seagate's FDE will be an incredibly important product for Wave and so far I don't think we've heard much about how the OEMs which intend to use it (who, what, when etc.). That is certainly an avenue which will tie Wave to potentially other OEMs and further Wave's offerings with the Gateway and Dell. That may be one reason for the lack of additional partners announced so far.
Until Vista is actually released, we simply can only speculate how wave will play. Unfortunately despite all the prior history and expectations associated with Microsoft, I can't say that I've inferred something extra special associated with Vista.
The Japanese angle is supposed to produce a first customer soon.
Finally there are those enterprise pilots in a couple of verticals. If for example Citigroup is a player, it might take a Seagate or Vista release to be the catalyst to purchase the PC hardware and utilize the software from Wave.
It would be interesting to understand the reasons for such a switch. There are subtle differences among the discrete TPM chips and presumably on the terms and conditions for sale. Still changing so quickly is surprising to me so there is probably more going on that I don't understand.
ilike
A link to Altiris shows what looks like a strong software development company with existing alliances with HP and Dell and Fujitsu. It's not clear what this new suite of tools for HP does and whether it is directly competitive with Wave's server products (could be).
Given that HP has never really aligned with Wave so far and has seemed content to go its own way, it is certainly plausible that they have worked with Altiris to fill in the blanks. And certainly Wave has not really implied that they have bridged the gaps with HP. But there are so many nuances and activities associated with the centralized management of systems that even a reference to a trusted platform module doesn't spell out anything in enough detail. More info will be required to make an informed conclusion.
Bertha
Xpress often alludes to subscriber management services. I don't know all that would be entailed in managing VOIP subscribers but that may be the link.
While I2 isn't the same as Verizon or Comcast, the notion that TPMs can add value to a VOIP offering and that Wave will be developing some experience and serivce products for it is a good thing. I would think that VOIP will be a primary communications vehicle as time moves on and the more uses for TPMs for enterprises and consumers, the better for Wave in the long run.
Unix
I agree that 1 million a quarter to 200 million in a year is both fantasy and would be fantastic. Seeems simply impossible. But I also recognize that the projections of TPMs went from a few million to to over 100 million and the estimates for fully encrypted drives on PCs are from zero to millions.
So it comes down to whether businesses and the government will ever utilize these devices ( I'm sure you believe there are some IT people who have heard of TPMs even if your circle of professionals have no idea what they are), whether Wave's position of supplying key enabling features remains, and what price businesses will be willing to pay for such products.
Just because the numbers grow large when you cross multiply, doesn't mean that indivdual companies won't act in their best interests and purchase the products at very reasonable prices and it just adds up. It would be a far different issue if the forecasts anticipated a single purchase of 50 or 100 million dollars by a company.
CSLewis
When all data points are roughly at zero and all forecasts are based on a number of assumptions which are not yet fulfilled, there is a great range of possible outcomes including some very high revenue numbers. At this stage if Wave generated $100 or $200 million of revenue I would be both delighted and happily shocked and yet at the same time thinking "I told you so". That is the quandry of this company. Almost any outcome will seem clear in retrospect.
Chowder
I'm not sure how you've figured these timelines, but I don't quite see it that way. If a company was buying computers with TPMs, they would purchase a sufficient number in the first buying cycle to do something with them. I agree that it would take roughly 3 years for almost all the computers to be upgraded. Once they decdied to do something with the TPMs, they would start purchasing client and server software to make this happen. I don't see one year transpiring from the time they have purchased TPM computers, to purchasing any software to utilize the features. Of course I am assuming that with 25% to 30%of TPM enabled computers with users that the company would wish to better secure them.
HNstabe
These are all very good questions which would provide material non public information to readers if known and supplied. Unfortunately we'll all have to read between the lines of posts and comments from wave to reach our own conclusions.
But examining what we've all heard aloud,in 2006 before Seagate's FDE are a common commodity in all drives, they are being ordered and tested by corporations on a more custom delivered basis. Thosse deliveries will include Wave but Wave's enabling software doesn"t come prebundled. But that means more revenue to Wave but for the limited number of orders. Once the FDE's become more commoditized (in 2007 and likely after they fit the SATA design), it is more likely that a lite bundling option would be established but possibly as part of a PC OEM deal among all the parties ( Seagate may not need to enter into such an agreement with Wave if it can be done with an OEM). The timing of these events has been indicated on a few occassions and that means to me that we will see limited but non zero revenue associated with Seagate in 2006. However in 2007 unless this avenue just disappears somewhat illogically, there is every reason to believe it will be in the tens or even a few hundred of millions.
As for the other manufacturers, I would reason that the lack of any exclusive arrangement with Seagate means that Wave could work with other FDE manufacturers. They indicated earlier that the successful demonstration of the FDE led to many inquiries and interest from other manufacturers. Until we see another company developing TPM interfaces across multiple TPM designs, Wave is the sole source. Thus it seems quite likely and logical that Wave will net additional business from other drive manufacturers.
In summary although the pace seems inexplicably slow and frustrating, the direction of where everything is heading has been consistent and quite clear for the past year. The slow pace certainly introduces more risk to Wave and the chance of an unanticipated curveball always is present, but right now I'd say the biggest hurdle for potential investors is simply the feeling that since Wave hasn't succeeeded in getting revenue in the past, how can they do it now? The developing market and most of the external evidence is certainly providing answers to that question.
Twinki
Dutton is not going to overhype Wave. They may have been freer in their forecasts initially but despite what some think, just because they are paid for their analysis does not mean that they will "sell" like the analysts did back in 90's. Also unless they are paid big bucks by investors, they will limit the effort and time they spend researching potential break through stocks.
I also think that their is a pattern here. Wave has been able to attract both money and analysts in the past because their story is very very plausible and the up side is arguably very high. In each case, their failure to deliver (for whatever reasons) would have to put an analyst in a more cautious mode until the revenues support all the other signs.
That said, it also seems like there are limits to the research that Dutton is willing (or able to do). When all is said and done, the result may be nothing more than a means to have known facts put in writing with a CFA as signer picked up by the financial press. If the Dutton analyst is unwilling or unable to do lots of independent research to gain deeper insight, we'll never get any type of breakthrough analysis. Maybe he will read these boards and that will help his thinking. Often you will hear it first here.
Dig/Go-kite
I'm wondering whether either of you or someone else has compared the results of the two sheets based on simialr scenarios. I suspect it will take a few hors to study each and understnad the differences.
Cosmo
Did they defer the enterprise release date from November? There is speculation they will but I haven't read that anywhere.
Barge
We'll have to see if the panel thinks additional actions or longer term price stability is necessary. I'm sure a company like Wave is a pain for them. They delist it. After extended periods, they reinstate it. Now they are back reviewing it. Fortunately everything that is happening is all positive and certainly a good indication that the company will thrive and not get sick once again.
tim
this is what I said earlier in the day.
It's quite possible that they will need another round since cash receipts are so dependent on the precise timing that any deals are closed. As for the amount today, it is more likely that this was the most they could get at the market price established. Maybe they could have gotten more at a lower price but they could have decided (as in the past) that they would chance the markets in another quarter or two based on results.
I also think the timing was such that they allowed for upward momentuum to satsify the investors without delaying a few days to eke out a higher price but with some downside possiblity.