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Maynard....re Stock price rise....A lot of people have been talking about the steep rise in the share price over the last few weeks. They say that it's too fast. Let me provide an example of a different type of stock that would suggest that the rise in share price may not be that out of whack .
In this example....a drug company declares that it has a drug that could revolutionize diabetes. They have discovered a formulation and a delivery mechanism to allow Insulin to be given ONLY once per month. They announce that they have been given approval to start phase one clinical trials. The analysts following this company declare this company as being a entity to watch very carefully.....the share price starts a slow climb. The company comes out and declares that the drug is now in second phase clinical trials....and the analysts start to become more bullish...and the stock continues a slow but steady climb. What do you know...phase three clinical trials are started...and the analysts start to give potential revenue projections if the phase is successful. The stock starts a steeper climb. The the big news hits....and the FDA gives approval and the stock price really starts a fast acceleration upwards.
Now lets look at Wave. First...they had to convince the industry of the need for hardware security. A TPM chip had to be designed and then brought into the production lines of the chip makers. The DOD had to be convinced about the need to include the TPM in all their future pc buys. The OEMS needed to be convinced to include the TPMs in their enterprise offerings. Then applications needed to be made that took advantage of the TPM. Work was done with Seagate/Samsung / Toshiba/and others. Standards needed to be agreed upon by the titans of the industry and Wave was able to steer the decisions in their direction. The NSA and other federal agencies were brought on board. Finally...after YEARS and YEARS of working behind the scenes without EVER being noticed other than the lunatics that inhabit this community they finally got what I would equate with FDA approval...the contract with the automaker. After YEARS of not being given credit for their versions of phase trials....the investment community has all of a sudden woken up and realize the fact that WAVE HAS QUIETLY WOVEN ITSELF INTO THE FABRIC OF WHAT WILL CREATE THE FOUNDATION OF THE NEXT GENERATION OF CYBERSECURITY.
Sincerely,
Jas
re NORTHROP- GRUMMAN ............. NG is listed on Waves partner list.
Sincerely
Jas
re Tech analysis and charts....
The info brought to this community re charts and tech analysis by individuals like Clay Trader and others is very informative. Having said this....I believe that those of us who attribute our recent moves to tech analysis are missing the larger picture.
What we are witnessing is nothing short of a seismic shift and the recent contract with the Automotive company signaled the initial shot across the bow. Three years ago, I had the pleasure of attending the Data Protection Summit and sat next to a VP from Seagate. The VP leaned over to me during one of the presentations and said that the Software Encryption guys are history. Three years later...a major company made the decision to scrub their old software based encryption in favor of SEDs. The feds have made SEDs optional and are expected to make them mandatory similar to what they did re TPMs.
The seismic shift I mentioned above is that of TRUSTED COMPUTING which will revolutionize IT security. The above example of SEDs is ONLY a small portion of TC. Given all the media attention to this topic....is it any wonder that institutions are beginning to take notice. Finally....as Vacationhouse recently mentioned....the Russel re-balancing takes place in June.....now that will really be interesting.
Sincerely,
Jas
Texas...in addition to what Dory wrote...the other major difference between the recent rounds of presentations vs those of prior years is that they are being webcast for the general investment community to listen. Counting next mondays webcast...SKS will be holding THREE presentations to the investment community over the next three weeks. There will be numerous opportunities to update the investment community to recent developments in the Trusted Computing Landscape.
BTW...I see that you JUST joined our community two days ago....how did you come to hear about our little group?
Sincerely,
Jas
Waveytrain....re euphoria and 98% off of old highs....I would be very interested if you could shed some light to the following:
1) How much time did we spend at those levels?
2) Since those days....what has been the average share price? Is it near those lofty levels??
3) Over the past few years....one COULD have bought as many shares as one wanted for UNDER one dollar. Infact...many of us bought an enormous amount of shares between .40- .80 levels. My breakeven point is in the high .90s. Everyone had the opportunity to participate at those depressed levels. Whether one did or not....that ws a personal decision.
4) If you or anyone else has shares at much higher levels....why didn't you sell them ...and then wait for 30 days and buy them back? You could hae controlled roughly the same number of shares but taken a HUGE loss and uses that to your advantage in regards to taxes.
Therefore....it's not too difficult to understand the "euphoria" given the fact that most of us were able to dramatically increase our positions in the sub one dollar area.
Sincerely,
Jas
Encino....re Cyber Shockwave.....One of the topics that will come out of this CNN special ( IF I correctly understood the brief commercail that I saw ) is the issue of Machine Authentication. This WILL have an impact on Wave's bottom line ...IMHO Machine Authentication is shaping up to be a MAJOR issue for the feds.
Sincerely,
Jas
Alladinator....Someone just took out the 24k shares being offered up at 2.79.....obviously...someone (besides us loony toon wavoids ) is taking a position.
Sincerely,
Jas
Weby...re upcoming presentations.....In addition to the ones you mentioned....don't forget the Roth Capitals seminar March 15-17. There will be 2500 attendees with 1500 of them being institutional types. These will be NEW potential investors who will most likely being hearing our story for the first time.(BTW...SKS's presentation will be webcasted and available on the Roth web site) If even a small percentalge of those individuals decide to take a position....we could see an interesting supply vs demand story.
Sincerely,
Jas
Mundo....interesting article about the DOD......"The DOD gives vendors new rules to protect data"
http://www.federalnewsradio.com/?nid=35&sid=1889156
People should take a listen
Sincerely,
Jas
Fullmoon...thanks for the info....As stated in the pr...there will be ~2500 people attending the meeting. The presentations will be available via webcast. Unfortunately, the only way an individual investor will be able to attend is if he/she knows a client of Roth Capital....FWIW
Sincerely,
Jas
Good evening Vacationhouse......re Competition.....there are some companies that Intel favors more than others....just look at the two PRs from today:
From Softex's pr...."PCs powered by the new Intel Core vPRO Technology help business cut costs and increases efficiency by taking advantage of intelligent performance and unique hardware assisted security and managembility features," said Lisa Watts, director, Ecosystem Development, Intel Business Client Platform Division. "Secure Drive and its integration with the new Intel Core vPRO Tehnology will help enterprises simplify the deployment and enable remote management of the self encrypted OPAL drives. These advanced features will make a PC more secure by preventing data leakage while keeping IT management costs down."
From Wave's PR...."The all new 2010 Intel Core processor family features intelligent performance and unique security features to help businesses address their top concerns...cutting costs and increasing efficiency," said Lisa Watts, Director, Business Client Ecosystem Development, Intel Corporation. "INTEL RECOGNIZES WAVE SYSTEMS AS ONE OF THE INDUSTRY LEADERS FOR ENHANCING MANY OF THE ADVANCED SMART FEATURES OF vPRO TECHNOLOGY THAT ENABLES FAST AND EASY MANAGEMENT OF SELF ENCRYPTING DRIVES. THIS WILL OFFER REAL VALUE AND BENEFIT IN THE FUTURE AS MORE ENTERPRISES SELECT SELF-ENCRYPTING DRIVES TO PROTECT DATA AT REST."
The same Director made the above quotes for Softex and Wave.......Can you tell if Intel favors one over the other???
Sincerely,
Jas
Today's PR...One of the many nuggets included in today's release is the following...which in my opinion is not appreciated to its fullest extent by the street...at least not yet...
"...allowing users to have the benefits of security installed in the factory vs an aftermarket solution."
Sincerely,
Jas
Taxi...re Vega...Nice find.....I'm sure we will see more and more of these case stuidies pop up in the not too distant future....
Sincerely,
Jas
Ole yeller...re 25 k sale....even so...it's impressive that even after someone dumped 25k shares...the bid became stronger...kind of goes to the underlying demand for WAVX shares
Sincerely,
Jas
Good morning Slider....my post was not directed at you ...I just clicked the last post and submitted my post.....it was just a simple re-cap for the newbies that may have come on board recently.....
Sincerely,
Jas
Re share price....All of us who have been involved in this stock for over a decade understand very well how this stock trades. There is no mystery in how to read the charts. It all depends on what your goal is when you invested money into WAVX......Here are a few points to consider:
1) PC OEMs...Currently we are bundled in DELL and ACER. The revenue ramp up from ACER is along the curve that should eventually resemble DELL. In the recent Webcast....SKS suggested a number of times that HP maybe a lot closer to signing a bundling deal that would bring them on board in a manner that would eventually resemble DELL. Can you imagine what the share price would do if and when we get HP on board????
2) Question....What would get HP to shift gears dramatically to actually sign a bundling deal with WAVE??? SKS has suggested that one of the driving forces is current HP clients who want to proceed in the direction of trusted computing. Additionally, the feds have expressed tremendous interest in proceeding with SEDs. I believe these two factors will eventually force HP into bed with Wave.
3) New money.....Anyone who has followed this stock for any amount of time can tell that there hasbeen an influx of new money. Granted that some of it has been traders who jumped in for the quick trade....but make no mistake about it....there is NEW money that has parked its resources into this stock for a longer period than simply a quick trade. The relevance of this is simple.....as the stock gains more attention....there will be greater demand. However...a large number of shares are tightly held by a group of lunatic Wavoids and a growing percentage of institutional ownership. The net effect of this is that the actual float is a lot smaller than the 75-100 million shares outstanding. Therefore...when we get our next BIG contract....or the next BIG bundling deal....or the FEDS making some sort of commitment to the notion of trusted computing ala TSCP.....what type of stock appreciation can one anticipate??
4) NEXT BIG CONTRACT.....How many times has SKS mentioned that there are a lot of pilots currently underway?? If an AUTO company can see the advantages of TRUSTED COMPUTING.....don't we think that a finance company or a accounting firm or a legal firm or a health network or the feds will not see the advantages of trusted computing??? These pilots have been going on for a long time and are most likely at the stage of final commitment ....if they have decided to proceed in the direction of TC....we shall see evidence of this over the next few months.
As additional companies come on board....the demand for WAVX shares will explode.
5) Friends and Family.....for the FIRST time in a long time...I actually feel comfortable telling them to purchase shares of WAVX. The Auto deal WAS a game changer....anyone who doubts that is not clicking on all cylinders. Not only was Wave finally able to close a LARGE deal.....but it marked the FIRST time SEDs destroyed the existing software competition....THESE ARE HUGE POINTS!!!!
So.....relax about the current daily fluctuations.....the fundamentals of the company will take care of the stock price
Sincerely,
Jas
Click the yellow chart and you will get real time data
Sincerely,
Jas
Google vs China......Perhaps the most interesting piece of news for the general investment community could have been the brief comment SKS made about Google and China. What SKS suggested was that if ones e-mail account was protected by the TPM....one would not have been able to hack into that account without actually stealing that computer. Anyone else catch this little point??? The reason I bring this up has to do with all the media play this issue is getting and all they can talk about is buying more protection against viruses. So...if your a fortune 500 company that is attempting break it into the Chinese market and yet are concerned about individuals/govt. officials possibly stealing your company's secrets.....this feature of the TPM maybe of some importance to you.....
Sincerely,
Jas
Good afternoon everyone,
It's been a heck of a week The recent announcement marks the turning point on a multiple number of fronts which will have profound implications for Wave Systems....IMHO
1) Wave CLOSES a deal with a large corp......Tens of thousands of seats on a per year basis for 3 years is a SIGNIFICANT contract.
2) The sector this company is a member of has had huge financial problems over the past year and a half. The fact that this company has decided to pluck down 5.7 million dollars for SECURITY products to a small relatively unknown company is very telling. People can argue that it's only 5.7 million dollars.....but given the current finacial problems these companies are experiencing....its a rather SIGNIFICANT vote of confidence in Wave's product line.
3) This contract will allow Dell/Wave to go after the other automotive companies with a rather LARGE test case.....the other CIOs/CTOs will no longer have the additional pressure of being the FIRST to purchase this technology.....therefore leading to shorter sale cycles....imho
4)Hardware vs Software Encryption.....This is the FIRST time a large company has purchased hardware encryption drives at the expense of software encryption....THIS IS VERY SIGNIFICANT AND CONSTITUTES A TRUE TURNING POINT. As the number of SEDs in the market increases.....the effect on Wave's bottom line will be rather impressive!
Is the company home free...no....but it took a very large step this week.
Sincerely,
Jas
Player...re Continued listings.....Am I correct in the belief that if Wave gets the bid above 1.00 for ten consecutive days PRIOR to 3/2010...Wave would regain compliance irregardless to shareholder equity values?
Sincerely,
Jas
TKC....re 80% of upgrades....this came from SKS during his last CC.
Sincerely,
Jas
hnstabe....SED upgrade vs SED OEM sales....The purchase of an ERAS for the SED upgrades are running north of 50 dollars/seat. The SED OEM sales are running roughly at 7 dollars/unit. Unfortunately, none of us have any idea what the current attachment rate is regarding SEDs. What should be encouraging is that Dell is FINALLY making a push regarding SEDs. Hopefully, we should hit a run rate of 2-3% by the end of the year. Using a run rate of 1% for Dell/month units sales....this should translate to roughly 60k SEDs/quarter (I'm using 2 million units/month in this example which maybe off...but it suffices for this example.)
Sincerely,
Jas
hnstabe...re upgrades....Just a minor correction.... of the 15K upgrades we are talking about...roughly 80% are from SED upgrades....not TPMs...
Sincerely,
Jas
xxxx...re upgrade numbers....always appreciate your posts. I also believe that our upgrades for Q3 will be between 15-20k. If we are correct...that would represent a nice q vs q growth. Having said this....the numbers are stil rather anemic given the 3-400 million TPMs that are currently in the marketplace. This mind numbing fact is rather encouraging for it represents an enormous potential of growth going forward. Obviously, over the short term...our upgrade sales are directly linked to sales of SEDs...and that is fine with me for now.
Sincerely,
Jas
VC...thanks for posting those articles. What is interesting is to see who is included in these PRs. Look who is included in Wave's pr vs those of other companies. Pay attention to what is said about Wave.....My personal belief is that these quotes tell the REAL story as to the importance of a particular company in this movement.
Sincerely,
Jas
Weets...Nice find...but how long has the Dell/Samsung/Wave webinar been available on Wave's site??
Sincerely,
Jas
Re Wave ID.....Interesting....
Sincerely,
Jas
MIB....I'm encouraged and dissappointed at the same time. I believe that based on Dells outlook yesterday...our bundling fees should increase in Q3...remember that Dell had a very good July...which is the end of their quarter whereas it's the first month of our Q3. We need Dell's numbers to increase by at least 400,000 units to make up for our shortfall of ~350 K dollars from the servicing contract that finshed in Q2. Based on Dell's forcast...this should be no problem. Additionally, for every FDE/encrypted SSD that Dell sells...Wave will get ~7 dollars/unit. Furthermore...from what I have learned...Wave is getting between 70-100 dollars/upgrade. I DO NOT KNOW IF THIS INCLUDES THE YEARLY RENEWAL FEE.
The most important development in my opinion that has taken place in this quarter has been Dell's public push for encrypted drives. From a sales(DELL) perspective....it's not going to take a great deal of units on a percentage basis to have a very SIGNIFICANT impact on Wave's bottom line.
The most discouraging aspect to Wave's bottomline has been the nearly non-existant activation rate of deployed TPMs. I have yet to receive a valid explanation as to why the companies that are deploying FDEs and have bought ERAS have not activated their existing TPMs. Remember that they have already bought the server. Maybe this will happen with time and education. Unfortunately, I believe that it will take something like a government mandate to take control of their existing TPMs followed by a mandate for any company doing business with the feds to also activated their TPMs.
In short...I believe that we will be cash flow positive this quarter. I believe we will see good Qvs Q revenue growth for quarters to come. If FDE sales can ramp up to 50K/month....Wave has the potential to dramatically ramp up it's revenues in the next 6 months.
Sincerely,
Jas
MIB re Revenues....Although Dell remains the most significant contributor to our bottom line....I do not believe it's accurate to say that it's our only significant source of revenues. I would argue that the percentage of revenue based on upgrades and drive sales is increasing rather significantly on a q to q basis. SKS mentioned that July was a rather good month for upgrades....well...if we can get to 15-20k upgrades in Q3...that would represent a nice percentage gain and a nice and increasing balance to the Dell bundling fees....IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
MIB...re stock puchase plan...that is 25K/per year....fwiw
Sincerely,
Jas
24601....re shares held by insiders.....There is a poster here that can confirm the following conversation I had with a senior member of management and a BOD member. I brought up the issue of the BOD showing some support for the stock by actually buying shares on the open market. The reply I received was that he would love to but who will pay his mortgage payments. I then replied that it was us shareholders who drew the line in the sand and placed orders to protect the 1 dollar bid when we needed to maintain that for 10 days. Personally...I thought the answer this member of the BOD gave me was total BU*L SH*T! They (members of the BOD) can find some change and provide support for the stock.....The member of the BOD was not a happy camper that I even brought that issue up.....but to be honest.....I didn't care...the message was delivered.
Management is a different story....IMHO Both SKS and Feeney have continued to increase their shares by participating in the employees stock purchase program to the tune of ~20,000-25,000 dollars/year. I'm satisfied that they are actually increasing their share holdings FWIW
Sincerly,
Jas
DD...re Wave ETS appearing before Windows....It's not only a question about working with Dell and Acer....it's also involving Broadcom. The E-series has Broadcom's new Universal Security Hub which has a great deal of Wave work incorporated into the final product. This chip from Broadcom is an important part of Dell's Advanced platform...therefore...the short answer to your question is not only do they need to to work with DELL and Acer....but ALSO Broadcom inorder to potentially displace Wave...fwiw
Sincerely,
Jas
TKC....During the SHM....SKS presented a slide demonstrating the ramp up in upgrades for the last few quarters. The right side of the graph were projected sales for Q2 which totaled ~400,000 dollars. I took the middle values in the graph to come up with roughly 400K. If one used the upper parts of the graph...one would come up with a higher value than what I suggested above. Hope this helps
Sincerely,
Jas
Blue fin.....According to Gerry Fenney, the onslaught of new business would not translate to a dramatic increase in the company's burn rate. Currently, our burn is ~5.3-5.5 million/quarter. If our yearly revenues went from 25 to 50 million dollars....our burn rate would not increase by much....according to our CFO fwiw
Sincerely,
Jas
Vacationhouse....Hopefully I'll see you and the gang in NYC!! Re the Lockheed ad....I was impressed that an IT company that deals with the feds to the extent that they do has FINALLY taken the topic of CYBERSECURITY seriously enough to spend ad money on it. A few days ago...XXXlewis found Northrop gruman on Wave's web site. This could be an interesting summer if the feds are truly serious about this little thinggy called....CYBERSECURITY!
Sincerely,
Jas
LA...."Perfer that the price be propped up at about $5.00 for starters."....give us time...and we won't stop at 5!!!!
Sincerely,
Jas
Zen...re the next few months....I know that we have all said our time is now for YEARS!! I believe that we have all become so jaided by our lack of prognositc abilities that we just don't want to believe that our time IS now. A year ago...what was our main concern??? What is our main concern now??? There is a reason why we have not done a PP in a while. Revenue IS picking up. Number of upgrades are picking up on a monthly basis. Number of companies deciding to upgrade are increasing on a monthly basis. Unfortunately...they have been building up at a rate similar to that of a tsunami wave. In such a wave...the true power and force is not recognized util it rolls on shore. That is what WILL happen to this company....IMHO
Sincerely,
Jas
La Beach boy...re paint job....etrade is showing a purchase of 13,000 shares at 1.05....sometimes they are mistaken...but if it's correct..it's a heck of a paintjob. There is the 100 share paint job...and then there is a 13,000 share paint job
Sincerely,
Jas
La Beach Boy...So let me get something straight.....You think that longs placing bids to support the investment from an attack to do nothing other than deny the completion of the 10 day rule is pathetic?? Did you by any chance see the amount of shares that hit the bid in the last 45 seconds of trading yesterday???They had the entire day to sell...but chose to do so in the last 45 seconds????yeagh right!! They wanted to see us fail to get the monkey off our backs and a group of us stood up and said...HELL NO! That makes US pathetic.....cool
Sincerely,
Jas
Zen...re yesterday's closing price....The reason why we held the one dollar bid for 10 days is simple...there were a number of wavoids who created a firewall of bids between 1.01 and 1.02 to prevent a last second push below the one dollar mark. In fact, it was a friend of mine who sucked up some 17,000 shares that were dumped yesterday in the last 45 seconds of trading at 1.01. He had actually placed an order to purchase 40,000 shares @1.01 at 12:45(pst) yesterday. The entity looking after the 1 dollar bid was the Wavoid collective...not SRA!! He and I were back in the market this afternoon and will continue to accumulate. The writing is on the wall...people have to simply take time out and read it. A few days ago Lockheed/Martin had a significant TV ad whose ONLY topic was CYBERSECURITY. The ad was on either CNN or CBS.
Sincerely,
Jas