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Here's a more detailed link to the Oppenheimer note: http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Oppenheimer+Maintains+a+Perform+on+%C3%86terna+Zentaris+(AEZS)+as+Outlook+Doesnt+Seem+to+Improve/7667766.html
And note, RBC Capital also had a note out on aezs from 8.16 (in addition to Oppenheimer). This one, was a downgrade http://www.dailypolitical.com/finance/stock-market/rbc-capital-cuts-price-target-on-aeterna-zentaris-aezs.htm .
OK, ya i get that then. I think the 34m shares that were registered was just a provisory # that was picked tho. The offering to IronRidge is for 10$m (and the language of the s-1/a to me is vague on this..ie. are they obligated to sell a full $10m worth of shares by the end of the 24 month contract? Or can they choose to issue to any amount from $0 to $10m?)
I think it's a provisory #, that will be upped and sent to the SEC to be made effective as needed. Because if they issue 17tranches of 2m shares at 2c..that's only $680k. Not even 10% of the 10$M.
Where did you see the part only 17 drawdowns tho??
Will you post a link to the GAO report on here when it's out?
OK. I see where you're coming from now. Looks to me like you are doing some good DD.
One error i see tho, is that it's not every 15 days. It's one drawdown (ie. 2m sh) for every drawdown period (ie. the # of trading days it takes to reach 6m of volume).
Further, i think the definition from that link for a 'toxic issuance' is kinda vague and imprecise.
At the moment, I would just define it as: warrants, stock options, shares, or convertibles issued at effective prices way below the prevailing market price.
Phase 3 for what Charlie?? Multiple Myeloma? That's in q1 2013 (!) per the p/r just released for the quarter.
The degree to which the company does a r/s shouldn't impact institutional investment imo..except if these institutions have rules such as, "we can't buy anything under 2.00$/share"..
Otherwise, institutions make investments on stuff if they think it's a good investment. S.p. on a stock is mainly irrelevant imo..market cap rather is what is important. (Ie. to know what the market is valuing the company at..and seeing whether you think it is overvalued,undervalued, fairly valued, etc).
Robsct have you done your DD? The S-1/a filed on 7.27 and made effective by SEC on 8.14, contains zero convertible bonds. That is the only financing PSID has done recently.
And thus since no convertible bonds were issued, the definition of toxic at the link you gave is not met here in PSID's situation.
It's a financing..but why is it toxic per se?
OK. Thanks for the info. The executives giving themselves too bonuses I don't like. However, despite that, I think think the stock will runup to it's pdufa..as i think it's fairly heavily undervalued at these levels.
a) i don't think he can get more RSU's that easily. They can only get them perhaps once a year i think,,as part of an annual compensation package.
b) I think he will hold to sell after EU and FDA approval. Why? He'll simply make a higher % return that way.
We'll see. I bet the RSU's will not be sold. But that the ATM with Azimuth will be used from time to time here in 2012.
So you think they are gonna sell their RSU's come Aug24?! I highly doubt that. My bet is that we see no insider selling before the 12.21 pdufa date.
And why would the vesting of RSU's on Aug 24 make the company want to sell shares to Azimuth via the ATM? I don't see any logical connection there. I think they will tap the ATM to Azimuth but later in the year here..i think the execs expect the s.p. to reflate higher to match where it was in April/May.
Boeing? Never heard of that one before. Where's the proof for this?
Manny, I'm not sure think your calc is quite correct. I'm not sure if the 95,492,330 includes the 4 non-common stock type of shares that Montaur owns. I would guess they would not be included...
So if i add all that up..gives 141,927,073. And 39.43% ownership for Montaur.
That AF article was good..he says the new trials are supposed to cost $36m. I wonder where he got that figure?
And this i found very interesting...he is expecting a dilution too: "Significant stockholder dilution is coming -- and soon. Analysts on BioSante's conference call Monday morning sounded overjoyed to audition for a chance at the underwriting business."
Well it's quite possible that no capital firms/investment banks were willing to finance when bpax was double the price. Look what happened with DCTH. They were trading at above 3$ and 4$ for the 3.5months of the year. Then the price dropped to 2.50 levels. Then they financed at 1.50/share..which is about at 35% discount. I would guess the company just couldn't get a better deal.
Haha, i was utilizing 'catalyst' in the sense of s.p. appreciating...but i'm wondering if this tankage in the price is the price correcting in advance to a dilution the company is working on (in conjunction with the dumping by the note-into stock-converter)? Ie. raise money before the new libigel trial starts?
How long are the two new libigel phase 3 trials expected to take? 3 months? 1 year? 2years? etc
The only thing that doesn't make sense to me on that is that they are in i would say a pretty good working capital position as of 3.31. As of 3.31, current assets 50.19m vs current liabilities 6.08m.
Also, in the 10q it states:
"We expect our cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2012 to meet our liquidity requirements through mid 2013." But that doesn't mean that aren't working behind the scenes on a financing right now. Companies will finance a ways out if they can, just to remove the pressure of needing to do it "at the last minute".
I'm not sure which short-term catalysts the company has coming up which can drive up the s.p. Im not sure that this new Libigel trial will have any near-term catalysts.
The one thing the company officers + directors can do to put a floor in the s.p. would be to do a bunch of form 4 buying here.
edit: adding some more info that came to mind...i wonder if the note-converter is still selling at these levels? or did he manage to clear out the stock he got at the higher levels? He would be selling for a loss here..but if he knows/thinks the company is gonna do a financing at say 1.00/share, it could be smart for him to dump here and rebuy lower (if he wants). Also on June 8th, I see Blackrock went below 5% ownership..they could be dumping the rest of their position and no SEC forms are required at under 5%...
Also if there are more note-into-stock conversions, that would dump the stock more. That's one of the main risks i see right now, along with a (pretty) early financing.
What's BPAX's next catalyst? Ive heard some chatter about a 9th safety review or something?
Interesting article from BioCentury on the FDA surveillance scandal..i found it interesting how the companies involved were all diagnostic/imaging type companies. http://www.biocenturytv.com/freecontent/tbr_072312.pdf
It's specifically for the s-3 man
Excuse me, the insiders sold shares the day before the r/s? Um, where's the proof?
$PSID dilution per yest's 8k. $2.5m convertible notes (convertible at $0.047/sh). And 53m warrants with exercise price of $0.052.
$PSID sh o/s on 3.31.12 was 111m. So the $2.5m into shares at $0.047 is 53m shares. And the warrants are for 53m sh. So 95% dilution.
Yes buying up stock, but not in the open market...rather in a dilutionary financing. The details are all in today's 8k
And the 1.65$ warrants were an incredible slap in the face. From the maybe 10-15 financings I've seen, this is the worst one. a) at such a discount, and then b) dreaded warrants in it too.
Was the company getting no decent financing offers that they agreed to take this piece of crap?
Yea, I saw you put that. I wanted to emphasis for other readers too. And further, I failed to add, that I don't think that book value is the appropriate valuation metric either! Again, CBIS is a speculative biotech company. Speculative biotechs never tend to be valued on p/e or on book value--they tend to be always valued on their future projected market cap appropriately discounted to present.
CBIS is a speculative biotech play..biotech plays that are in the product development stage are not valued by p/e ratio--because they don't have earnings. They are rather valued by their hypothethized future market cap discounted to present.
Good point, I wonder how early people knew..if they knew at 12$ that was a hefty return with almost nil risks.
Lymans: I haven't analyzed it enuf to have a position on whether they will have a nice q1 eps..I think that a buy back of the senior debt is plausible. However, I don't think that DEXO can really head in the right direction..because, do they even have a sustainable business model? They deal with print and online marketing stuff. Where is the safety in that type of business model? i don't see any
The mp3 interview from today sucks imo. No questions at all about that FDA letter to them in March (FDA letter about how they were selling their products in the US without fDA clearance..don't have the link for it handy).
OK. That's the first I've heard of that. I don't recall seeing even a P/R by BIEL addressing this.
Doing some research..they are in need of funds! That's probably why this thing is at 52 week lo levels. Per the 10k that came out last week their working capital is negative:
- Current Assets of $110k
- Current liabilities of $2.819m
Also something i found really interesting..these guys doubled the # of shares outstanding..talk about dilution of ownership!
At March 26, 2012, 107,647,718 shares of our common stock were outstanding. As of the previous 10q, on Nov 11/2011 their was s/o of 53,502,779! That's a freakin' double! I noticed in the 10k that they have a financing arrangement with IronRidge, where IronRidge apparently gets the shares at a discount and can sell them in the market immediately after. I guess the share count doubled, because when you sell shares for like 20c or lower, takes so many to raise a million bucks for example..Crazy..I was thinking about buying in around 9.5c..but after seeing this..I'm gonna watch it more and research it more. The market was shaky today with SPY almost breaking 139..if the market retreats this thing should fall with it.
The reason I think the cap most likely changed, if it did (I wasn't tracking it before) is because new information came on 3.28--ie. the 10k..which has an updated share o/s count. So i figure the shares o/s went up a bit.
Excuse me, where did you see that the market cap went up while the s.p. was constant? How much did it go up?
Is anybody here shorting this based on the 1c warrant situation? I was thinking about it, but was surprised to see the stock over 6c today? Hit a high of 6.20c..that caught me off guard expected to see a lot more weakness..also 8k just came out. Christopher Sohn resigned from everything. Maybe the company is disintegrating?
I see what's happening now..a lot of warrants at 1~c..can exercise and dump them right now in the open market for a nice profit. Re: Dean needing those 1billion votes tho, did the board even vote on this Cranshire agreement that was in the 8k this morning!? There' no mention of a vote in it at all..
Why is it hitting new 52 week lows today? Im a bit out of the loop on the latest happenings with the stock. It had held the 7c/share level for so long. And now's it's finally broken it recently. Did bad news come out?
Why did Dean just issue himself preferred stock which gives him 350,000 votes? The stock ain't convertible into common shares..so it's basically worthless..does he need the voting power for something coming up?
If i was a hedge fund I definitely wouldn't short here..i would have shorted when it was at 4.50 territory tho. I think the drop today might have been the last of a fund liquidating their position. The drop to 2.59 felt like a real capitulation to me. A real fast downward spike. I think it's getting fairly safe to go long here for a bounce to 3 and maybe over. There's a fair bit of chart support here imo.