Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
FEEC - for anyone interested in doing a little DD on FEEC (China natural gas play) - they are doing a presenation at a Pritchard Capital Partners conference at 11AM pacific time. Below is a link to the webcast which is getting ready to start.
http://www.wsw.com/webcast/pritch2/feec.ob/
Joe, You getting ready to short NEP again? Good luck there.
Joe, You getting ready to short NEP again? Good luck there.
NEP - Nawar on the Yahoo board (who's been following NEP for quite a while) seems to think that an acquisition or the awarding of a new lease thru PTR could be around the corner. From his discussion with the company in the past, he says it is one of their top priorities. News of either could send this thing well past the teens into the twenties.
Gorilla, Why doesn't LLEN update their guidance for 2010? Perhaps they are saving it to release closer to the uplisting to garner a little more attention. $1.33 for 2010 (4/2010 year end) would be quite impressive and should send this thing flying. Took a position in LLEN today at 7.10. After NEP's open, I was regretting selling half my shares yesterday, but if LLEN meets or exceeds their revenue projections along with the uplisting, I don't think I'll regret the move for long.
NEP is out of control! Pullback doesn't appear to be in sight.
Thanks Gorilla! Very helpful info on LLEN - might take a position there today.
NEP/LLEN - I know many here have sold NEP. Sold half yesterday. Trying to decide whether to sit on the cash and wait for a pullback or pick up some LLEN (LLFH) today. The little bit of DD I've done on LLEN looks very promising.
Considering putting some NEP profits into LLEN (LLFH) tomorrow. Still have half my NEP position, but couldn't resist taking some profits today. Not sure if I want to sit on the cash and wait for a NEP pullback or put it into LLEN tomorrow. Any thoughts?
Glad you covered joe. Of course, that means it should consolidate now! LOL
NEP - Including today, over half the available float has traded (volume wise) over the last five days. Pretty significant for price support.
NEP - I have no doubt you are much smarter than me, but do reconsider your NEP short. This stock seems to defy logic right now. Just wonder if there is a big annoucement around the corner re reserve acquisition or new lease with PTR. May look to buy back my 1/2 position sold today sooner rather than later. Best of luck!
XODG - CSP, how familiar are you with XODG mgmt? The only red flag for me looking back over their filings was the resignation of their auditors in August of 2009.
NEP - Just sold 1/2 my NEP.
NEP - sitting out is defintely an option, but i don't think I'd go short here the way this stock is defying all sense. Close to 1M shares traded already in the first hour alone. Of course, you may be less risk averse than me. Good luck!
NEP - the way NEP is trading, makes you wonder if there isn't a deal in the works to acquire more reserves thru an acquisition or the signature of a new lease with PTR. Could be a game changer and make the current accent look rather modest compared to what's to come.
They are still waiting on the Chinese gov't to approve the Arrow deal for the Quinnan PSC. When the deal is approved, FEEC will receive ~ $8M from Arrow with I think another $8M to come down the line for various cost reimbursements. The big play with FEEC though is the Shouyang PSC which is showing great progress right now -steady increase in production over the last few months. FEEC needs cash to continue exploration costs in Shouyang (which is their number one priority and rightly so). They retain a much larger percentage in Shouyang (over 60% I think) - and there appears to be a ton of gas there. FEEC just raised another $5M to continue development on Shouyang (recent 8-K detailing deal on 12/22). They are reaching commercial production there and should commence commercial sales on Shouyang production in the second half of 2010. There is still the potential for additional dilution (especially if the Arrow funds don't come in in the next several months), but it would seem this company is turning a corner. 2010 could be a great year for them.
FEEC - I know they have a lot of shares out - fully diluted around 200M, but they are sitting on a ton of gas. Check out Millstone's valuation calculation.
Millstone's valuation calculation copied over from the IV board."Valuation
I'm working on a "get the word out" analysis of FEEC's market value potential. ck, excellent summary of FEEC that you posted on the investment blog.
This is what I have so far:
FAR EAST ENERGY has 3 Production Sharing Contracts (PSCs): Enhong, Laochang, and Shanxi (Shanxi contains a Shouyang block and a Quinnan block).
ENHONG & LAOCHANG –
Estimated 5.3 trillion cu. ft. of total gas-in-place with potentially 2.65 - 3.44 tcf of recoverable CBM resources.
• 50%-65% recovery possible
• 60% interest for FEEC
FEEC's share of recoverable reserves: 1.59 - 2.06 Tcf
SHANXI
Qinnan - 572,000 acres
Far East now has 24.75% participating interest, after the farm-in with ARROW.
- All Qinnan East Area: P10 - 3.7 Tcf (105 Bcm); P50 - 4.4 Tcf (125 Bcm); P90 -
5.2 Tcf (147 Bcm)
- All Qinnan West Area: P10 - 5.5 Tcf ( 156 Bcm); P50 - 6.8 Tcf (193 Bcm); P90 -
8.3 Tcf (235 Bcm)
TOTAL P90 - 13.5 Tcf
Recoverable percentage: 50-65%
Recoverable amounts in Quinnan: 6.75 Tcf to 8.775 Tcf
FEEC's share of recoverable reserves: 1.67 TO 2.17 Tcf
Shouyang - 484,000 acres
FEEC 66.5% interest
- All Shouyang North Area: P10 - 3.9 Tcf (110 Bcm); P50 - 4.8 Tcf (136 Bcm);
P90 - 6.1 Tcf (172 Bcm)
Recoverable percentage: 50-65%
Recoverable amounts: 3.05 - 3.965 Tcf
FEEC's share of recoverable reserves: 2.028 Tcf to 2.637 Tcf
FEEC'S SHARE OF CBM GAS TO FEEC TOTAL ACROSS ALL PSCS, WITH 50-65% RECOVERABILITY: 5.288 - 6.867 Tcf
Profit potential to FEEC:
CBM receives favorable royalty treatment
CBM is at market price, rather than government established price
Reported average of $6.65 per Mcf in May 2008, with a higher range of prices for residential, commercial and industrial terminals.
Pipeline tariff approximately $1.60 Mcf per 600 miles (1,000 km).
Potentially higher prices for LNG, if necessary or available.
Strong profit potential after deducting lifting cost, tariff and taxes.
1000 times 1 billion = 1 Trillion
$6.60/mcf = $6.60 per 1000 cubic feet
1 MMcf = $6,600
1 Billion cf = $6,600,000
1 Tcf = $6,600,000,000 ($6 Billion and Six Hundred Million)
FEEC's total share of CBM gas, with a recoverability as an average of 50%-65% equals about 6 Trillion cubic feet.
6 Times $6.6 Billion = $39.6 Billion
Gross Revenues on 6 Trillion Cubic Feet of CBM = $39.6 Billion
Current Market cap of FEEC = $40 Million
(the gross value of FEEC's CBM recoverable assets are 990 times its current market capitalization)
Anybody with a keen mind care to help with finding the present value of $39.6 Billion of recoverable reserves, and thus the present value of FEEC?"
***********************
From the recent slide show, we could even bump up the value of the gas because in May 08 ng was $6.65/mcf and now it averages more like $8.50/mcf.
Now, the question is, what is FEEC worth today given the potential of 6 Trillion Cubic Feet of CBM?
It is too outlandish to fathom the total gross revenues...around 51 Billion Dollars Gross Revenues.
Let's get really conservative, realistic, and grounded, shall we?
OK, we have barely looked at ENHONG & LAOCHANG, so remove all but 1 Trillion in reserves.
QUINNAN: Knock this down to 1 Trillion in recoverable reserves for FEEC. (It is far more, I'm sure, but we are being naysayers right now.)
SHOUYANG: Let's take only the P10 of about 3.9 TCF, apply a 50% recoverable rate to get 1.95 TCF, and then FEEC's share (66.5%) to get 1.3 TCF. Wow, I really short-changed them here, but anyway...
FEEC's total adjusted recoverable reserves = 3.3 TRILLION CUBIC FEET of CBM.
Total Gross Revenues = $28,050,000,000 over 25 YEARS (CBM fields have a longer life if higher perm.)
Average CBM produced per year = 132,000,000,000
= A little over 1.1 Billion Dollars Gross Revenues to FEEC per year.
Let's figure on NET PROFITS being 25% of GROSS REVENUES, which equals $275,000,000 PER YEAR IN NET PROFITS.
Now, let's imagine they don't get to this level of production for 10 years, which is likely, as they are starting at virtually zero.
In 3 years, let's estimate they are at maybe 20% which equals 1/5 of $275 Million, or 55 Million Net.
180,000,000 shares outstanding (fully diluted)
55 Million NET PROFIT
30 1/2 cents / per share PROFIT
P/E of 15 (growth rate will be over 15% per year)
FEEC stock price in 3 YEARS = $4.58
FEEC stock price in 10 YEARS = $22.91
So, there you have it.
My best guess for FEEC's stock price.
Millstone
NEP - agreed. No disrespect to TA, but I think supply/demand is winning out over TA right now. The float for NEP is relatively low and this appears to be a stock that many individuals as well as institutions want to have a position in for this year. It is still trading at a relatively low forward PE. Not to mention, the price of oil has had a steady rise over the last few weeks. All that bein said, I sold a few shares yesterday, about 10% of my holdings. It's been a fun one to watch!
NEP - how high does this stock have to get before they stop flashing the 5.31 price on the ask!?
I don't think enough information has been given (that I've seen) from the company that would make it possible to include it yet in such a calculation. It would just be guess work on your part. I point it out just to show that that is another area in which your calcuation is taking a conservative approach given the possible impacts of the new facility to the bottom line. By the way, I prefer the conservative approach - much rather be surprised to the upside as opposed to the downside - especially given the volatility of these stocks. Thanks for sharing your calcuation - looks like it could be a great year for BSPM and those holding the stock.
BSPM --- Traderfan,
It might be difficult to quantify for 2010, but the new raw materials facility is expected to further improve margins going forward - not to mention the additional revenue stream from raw materials the company sells that they don't use internally.
NEP - Not sure if this link has been posted. This is a link to an article on Seeking Alpha by Nawar - a respected poster of NEP on the Yahoo board.
http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/174762-nawar-alsaadi/41784-china-north-east-petroleum-gushing-to-life
Under a $1 - FEEC - current price $0.46 O/S 162M
Recent write up on FEEC from undiscovered equities
Far East Energy Corporation (OTC BB: FEEC) $0.46
Houston, Texas based Far East Energy Corporation together with its subsidiaries, focuses on the exploration, development, production, and sale of coalbed methane gas (CBM) in the People’s Republic of China. The company owns interests in three production sharing contracts, which cover the 485,000-acre Shouyang Block in Shanxi Province; the 573,000-acre Qinnan Block in Shanxi Province; and the Enhong and Laochang areas, which total 265,000 acres, in Yunnan Province. Far East Energy has formed an alliance related to its Qinnan Block with Arrow Energy International Pte Ltd (Arrow), the Singapore-based subsidiary of Arrow Energy Limited, a large Australian CBM producer. In addition Far East recently announced that gas production from the Shouyang Block in the Shouyang Block of Shanxi Province, China, has begun and is accelerating rapidly. The Shanxi project in full development has the potential to become one of the largest CBM projects in the world. In a country that desperately needs clean energy sources, Far East Energy has the potential to produce between 10 and 20 TFC of natural gas. It is also important to note that the price of natural gas in China has gone up over the last 3 years as opposed to the US where prices have plummeted. We have been following Far East for quite some time and now more than ever we are aggressive buyers.
Diclosure: Currently don't own FEEC - have in the past - considering a reentry point in 2010 given the increased production in their Shouyang Block, anticipated commercial sales in 2010 and recent insider buying of the stock.
I agree on BSPM. It would seem the time to take some profits there would be a month or so after the uplisting is announced - i suspect will see another nice run at that point.
FEEC - does anyone here follow FEEC. I'm not currently in this one although I have traded in and out of it in the past. Weak balance sheet with dilution almost certain. Recent significant insider buying.
Here's their laster IR presentation
http://www.fareastenergy.com/documents/ManagementPresentation122909.pdf
Considering a reentry in early 2010. Any comments appreciated.
Thanks CSP - Your thoughts are always appreciated
I know NEP and BSPM are the # 1 and 2 stock on the ECSC top 10 list for 2010 - given the big moves in both over the last month, are they still worthy of the #1 and 2 position for 2010? I see NEP as still a potential double from here in 2010 as well as BSPM. Strong balance sheets and management for both.
With the big drop in NEP this morning, I was quite suprised with the relatively low volume during the sell off - not too many people scarred out of their stock - surprising given the huge runup in such a short time.
BSPM - what a day! nice close at the HOD
NEP - Can anyone explain the 5.31 price that keeps flashing on the ask for NEP? It's been doing this for several weeks, but seeing it a lot today. Thanks
NEP still looks strong, but surely can't continue at this pace for much longer in the short run. Wish I had listened to some who suggested buying the options several months back. Quite happy with my current 100% return in that time, but if I'd bought the options then, oh well...
Thanks Drexion - I'm thinking the same thing. Much more confortable with CKGT's balance sheet. LTUS seems a little over extended - both have great growth and great potential. Feeling a little risk averse these days.
Selling LTUS shares to buy CKGT --- feedback please - which one should give me a greater return over the next year or two? TIA!
same with scottrade
A capital raise to fund growth is a little more tolerable to take than a capital raise to pay off past obligations. They appear to have invested all their income this year in PP&E, which bodes well for growth going forward, but it has been at the expense of staying current on their bills. Perhaps the investments they've made this year will pay off in short order thereby reducing the need or limiting the amount needed in any capital raise.
All the best to you and your family. Eric will certainly be in my prayers.
Question on LTUS? --- anyone checked out the 3rd quarter financials? I was looking at the balance sheet a little more closely tonight. Looks like LTUS has $7.6M in current assets and $15.6M in current liabilities (over $9M in A/P alone). Is the current ratio concerning to anyone else. Their revenue growth rate going forward will need to be substantial in the short run to cover these current obligations --- or else additional capital will probably need to be raised soon. Any thoughts from those perhaps a little more informed here than I on the state of their cash flow, etc?
Thanks.
BSPM - spending $1.1M to add $3M to revenues in 2010 sounds lot a great deal, but somehow I'm struggling getting too excited about hernia belts! I guess there is a lot of heavy lifting going on in China. LOL
Another interesting read on NEP:
http://caps.fool.com/blogs/viewpost.aspx?bpid=303147&t=01007491803499516217