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True. But we are not close to that. And i doubt that the responsibility of the FDIC will Be seriously discussed in THJMW's court. That would be the center of another litigation suit.
I dont recall that one. Could you please give me a link on that Indy Mac settlement?
But that being put aside for the moment:
The FDIC doesnt have a $100B. They have roughly $32B. Everything else is just a credit line. If you think the FDIC would tap the $500 billion from the Treasury...well, dream on.
We will See. I'll get back to you on that.
Highly unlikely scenario as there are always more shareholders than lawyers in the courtroom.
=)
No, i mean a haircut to face value. I expect V5 POR to be slightly better to what was previously offered to the prefs.
I am considering that move as well (owning Us & Ks). But i will do that only if i should be out of cash at that moment because i think overall the prefs will be the better performers.
I think they will divvy up the NOLs but not all of the amount will go to equity. Therefore i am expecting a massive haircut to the prefs and as a result a low offer (around $0.1 or $0.2) for the commons.
BR has to offer something for the commons since Mike Willingham owns commons only.
In the end i expect the prefs to be paid FV but the first offer will mean a haircut to the prefs.
aimho
I agree with you.
I think we need Solomons numbers first to get a settlement offer above $1/share. At the moment there is nothing official on the table that shows A>L. Without a valuation of the remaining (and the former assets) of WMI there wont be an interesting offer for the shareholders.
I stick to my SWAG: At best we get a first offer at or around July 8th. And we wont like it because broken down to amount per share it will be less than what the shares are trading at right now, whether be it wamuq, wamkq or wampq.
But it could be the first real signal that there is cash for equity.
Its not signed though/yet. eom
Thats my belief as well but regarding our suit these allegations are just that: Allegations. You don't get money for allegations but for handing back the Smoking Gun.
The Way i See it we are facing at least Three to Four steps till full payout:
Our first goal should be getting the NOLs in full.
My expectation is that JPM and FDIC wont just give up all of the NOLs in à First attempt. My guess regarding the 8th of July is giving Away à part of the NOLs to benefit equity. This would mean à massive haircut to the prefs and 10-20 Cents for the commons. MW and Susman wont accept that, but i don't expect more from BR at this stage.
In à Second step we will Be offered the NOLs in full.
Third step would be the payout for the assets whatever they may be worth (20B, 100B or more).
The fourth step would be the payout for all the alleged criminal conduct, fraudulent conveyence etc. We may never see that because it might need a different court/litigation.
Depending on what the EC may find or achieve through discovery/depositions there might be more or less steps necessary.
Thats my basic take on things right now.
And regarding your question why i don't think the FDIC will Pay:
First of all its to early (see above). Second its the sheer size of that sum. It would mean
acceptance of guilt by the FDIC. Way before that happens its JPMs part to pay whatever the assets of WaMu are worth. There is no guilt involved in that so that can be achieved à lot easier.
AIMHO
cheers from Hamburg,
Maekuz
I surely hope so.
I am off for now. Its 2am over here and i have to start at 6.30.
I'll read y'all later.
GLTA
They were thinking ahead. Thats all.
/JPM-Mode off
if this would prove anything (in legal/matter of law sense) we all would have been to Vegas by now.
The EC needs the Smoking Gun. It hasnt been presented to the Court yet. Therefore no settlement yet.
That presentation is also saying that JPM works way more efficiently with assets than WaMu did. WaMu generated losses. JPM didnt. With the same assets. No need to pay anything.
Im just playing devils advocate here. And i think it needs more Time and pressure to make JPM/FDIC Pay up.
JPM doesnt feel - not even remotely - the pressure which is needed to give up 20B $. IF we geta low ball offer within the next few weeks it will be millions not billions for equity. We will get there in the end. But not very soon.
I just don't see the FDIC handing over a 100B $. Givin up a fifth of everything you own is hard to do. You would deliver a good fight before you do that.
My SWAG is that the debtors and JPM made it clear that they don't want the examiner. Susman in exchange will have made clear to them that they have to come forward.
The debtors and JPM wanted the examiner question postponed badly. Now they have to Pay up.
Exactly my thinking. Things are getting better by the day.
Bought some more. We are on a winning track and we get closer.
What did he do? eom
I think she could. EC thinks she could.
Priceless! Calling him the JPM milk man...
That email is from Brian Glueckstein, not Brian Rosen.
Glueckstein works as a counsel for JPM.
I think we are good, but we are not close.
We need the order granting the taking of depositions of JPM and the FDIC or granting the examiner. If we get those then we might get close.
I wonder what the reaction of THJMW to this will be. My best guess is that it will depend on what Susman has to say to this.
If Susman says that the EC is fine with this agreement then THJMW might say that there is no need for an examiner.
Otherwise, if Susman is saying that the debtors are still not forthcoming with information...well that might fuel her rage.
Could you please make this sticky, uz?
No, thats old news from yesterday and i dont know how that info could affect our case/stock.
I believe the market has digested yesterdays hearing and is now reacting accordingly.
EC will get the information they wanted and the debtors/JPM/FDIC are deeply troubled by that. Why? Maybe because that information is very valuable to the EC.
I think we are looking better than ever and i believe the market sees it that way as well.
Looks like it has already landed in Frankfurt. =)
He is a Prof at the university of Illinois. A prof for finance. Thats something.
Regarding the possible PR-disaster for JPM this could be the best time for serving justice or reaching a (truly) global settlement (incl. equity) because everbody is looking down south to that awful oil spill. It might not get quieter than this for JPM.
I agree with you a 100%. The DS is just dirty paper, approved or not, it doesnt matter.
Its the POR that matters and that thingy is DOA. Three versions until now and none of them is working. That should tell you something.
I believe we are looking extremly good on our request for turning over the discovery documents from the debtors. I expect that those documents alone will give us some serious leverage in future negotiations with JPM.
As for the request for direct examination of JPM and FDIC i think we are still looking at a 50/50 chance. The arguments listed in that motion are pretty convincing (to me).
And the appeal for the examiner...well, i still think an examiner would be the icing on the cake, but i dont care for the icing, i just want my part of the cake.
aimho
Correct. eom
It surely is. Delay after delay - and still they couldnt manage to finish that so-called "settlement". They are testing the courts patience. Again.
I would be mad...
What a charade! eom