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In heavy GOOG $540 calls
Set to jump as long as the markets don't tank too much next week. Pincher play.
Weekly, 50 MA to cross 200 MA next week
S&P RAISES OUTLOOK ON INTERNET SOFTWARE & SERVICES TO POSITIVE FROM NEUTRAL
Friday 02/05/2010 9:33 AM ET - Standard & Poor's Research Notes
Following Q4 results from multiple Internet Software & Services companies, we are raising our fundamental outlook on the sub-industry. We think the largely stabilized global economy will contribute to more advertising spending, an increasing percentage of related budgets is being spent online, and pricing for associated Internet offerings has started to improve. We also see appealing business models, strong balance sheets, and attractive valuations across the sub-industry, and our top picks are eBay (EBAY 22.45****), GOOG, InfoSpace (INSP 10.21****) and Move (MOVE 1.60****).
2/5/2010 WFR Upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse
Yesterday's close: $11.60
Today pre-market: $12.11 (+4.4%)
Link
MEMC Electronic (WFR): Upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse; target raised to $19.50 - Actionable Call Alert!
February 5, 2010 8:56 AM EST
From Notable Calls
Credit Suisse is making an interesting call on MEMC Electronic (NYSE: WFR) upgrading the name to Outperform from Neutral with a whopping $19.50 price target (prev. $17).
Bottom line. CSFB is raising their CY10 EPS from 42c to 71c; firm's CY11 EPS now at $1.49. They think the semi business is worth ~$11, and with $4.5 of cash, the implied solar valuation is negative. Prior trough book multiple was 1.1x (implies ~$11 is downside). They think the solar business is worth at least $4/share – risk/reward attractive.
Semi business entering a sweet spot. Semi wafer supply and demand is tightening driving price increases Q1 and in Q2. Semi capex is ramping, and should help demand in 2H10 and 2011. MEMC has increased market share by 2x LTM. Semi revenues in CY10 are higher than most investors’ expectations. Expect semi business to earn ~$1.09 in CY11; CSFB values it at $11/share.
CSFB thinks the semi business is generally much larger than what most investors expected in 2010. They think MEMC’s semi wafer shipments (measured in Millions of Square Inches or MSI) will grow nearly 60% y/y in 2010, well above industry MSI shipment growth rates slightly under 40% as MEMC is gaining market share in semis.
MEMC lost a significant amount of market share from 2005-08 in the semi business. This was primarily because the company focused too much on its solar poly business, which resulted in poor customer service, missed deliveries and a lack of focus in the semi business. MEMC’s new management team in the last year has significantly turned around the semi business. Firm thinks this is absolutely the right thing to do in the long run – the semi business has a legacy that spans beyond 30 years, does not depend upon subsidies, has strong long term unit growth trends and is much more consolidated than the solar wafer business.
Solar business fears overblown. While CSFB thinks the Sun Edison acquisition was the right move given US is a high growth end market, investors are concerned on cash flows and balance sheet impact. MEMC will use its balance sheet to drive construction finance of these projects, however, the projects are fully financed through buy-down financing – MEMC guided for positive FCF in 2010. The project debt is non-recourse. Sun Edison business was acquired for 80c/share, they value solar wafer business at ~$3.3 – solar total is over $4/share.
CSFB notes that anecdotally, they hear US installers complain that they do not receive sufficient panels to meet demand at lower price points. They think there should be some demand elasticity in the US at <$1.60/watt but suppliers today can clear panels in Germany at >$1.80/watt. Suppliers intentionally are diverting panels to Germany as there is an added worry the German government will cut subsidies soon. They think the German market will be impacted by a decline in subsidies – which the firm thinks will likely cause panel prices to decline – which in turn they think will help volumes in the US business.
Valuation. MEMC stock sold off 15% yesterday following a well attended analyst day. Besides general unease about Sun Edison acquisition, Investors worried about company’s breakeven EPS guidance for Q1 which missed street consensus at 9c (although CSFB says they thought full-year guidance of 70-80c, which included 10c of non-recurring charges was better than feared). Concerns appear overblown at current valuations, see favorable risk/reward with $8 upside to their price target and $2 downside if stock retrenches to 1x book.
Notablecalls: One of the main reasons why this call warrants attention is that Credit Suisse's Solar Energy team have never been fans of WFR in the past. They have been Neutral-rated on the name since the time the stock was in the $60-$70's back in 2007. They kept their cool all this time.
Until today.
The stock got crushed (-15%) following not-so-bad guidance which kind of looks like a capitulation move. The general market weakness surely helped.
So, today CSFB upgrades the stock with a whopping price target of $19.50 saying, hey guys, it's not so bad. The Semi business is humming and Solar may be getting better. Note that HSBC is upgrading the Solars this morning saying after Germany announced plans to cut solar incentives, but reported blockbuster shipments during the third quarter, have excited many analysts as the U.S. solar market could show strong growth this year.
This is bound to surprise a lot of people.
If we get a some kind of a stealthy rally in the market today (and I suspect we may get one) this one's going higher.
I'm thinking of $12.50+ as a prudent target under this scenario.
Actionable Call Alert!
http://notablecalls.blogspot.com/
Yes, more of a bearish view. Equivalent to a stock with high short interest, so potential to either continue bearish or short squeeze. My memory must not be too good, I posted this article about a week ago...
From Bespoke:
Below we highlight a list of S&P 500 stocks with the highest ratio of open put interest to open call interest. Companies with high put option open interest compared to call option open interest have more bearish than bullish bets. It's similar to a company with high short interest, and some investors view this as bullish or bearish. Investors who view a high ratio as bullish tend to think that the negativity is already priced into the stock, meaning upside potential is greater than downside potential. Investors who view a high ratio as bearish tend to think that it means the smart money is betting against the stock, indicating that more downside is to come. Typically during market rallies, stocks with high ratios will outperform, while they will go down faster than the market during declines.
Dow will close over 10100! Guaranteed!
NICE! I say 10,134.78 (-135.77)
Good, I have SPY $108 calls
I'm up 1 penny
-135.77
In GOOG $540 February calls
$6.3
In SPY $108 February calls
$1.75
RZ Closes Up to $19 Million Financing with Fletcher International
http://www.google.com/finance?q=rz
http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100204005755&newsLang=en
KO/VZ calls...COF puts
Feeling confident on these 3. KO $55s should be in the money just a little pressure from the 100MA @ $55.25. Blows through that should test the 50MA @ $56.74 over the next few sessions. pSAR will flip @ $55.52 (well, pSAR will be at a lower price tomorrow)
VZ pincher. Looking at the $29 Feb calls to be OTM in the morning but to come back and close green. Pinch should do its thing.
COF $36 puts. I think these 4 bagged today (can't remember and don't feel like checking) but I think there is also much more downside. A quant trader I know issued a short sale alert today at $36.7. He's usually spot on in the general direction. Held the 8MA by 2 cents, hanging on by a thread. 8MA $36.53 close $36.55
Not in any of the above but may get in 1 or 2 tomorrow. In GOOG $440s.
What do you think?
Options Watchlist (BDK, COF, WMT, X, VZ, KO, MCD, PG)
Just throwing some ideas out there. Any of these look ok? I think I like the COF puts the most and VZ calls for pinch. And KO to breakout the triangle.
BDK February $70 calls ($2.20)
COF February $36 puts ($1.06), chart looks berry bearish, all moving averages pointed down except the 200. Looks like it will move closer to the 200. Plus a quant trader I know issued a sell short alert today at $36.7, he's usually accurate at least 1 point
WMT February $55 calls ($0.53)
X $45 calls on this support line
KO $55 Feb calls
MCD breakout
PG buy on new high breakout
VZ oversold + pinch, $29 February calls ($0.59). These calls were over $4 not to long ago....
Options Watchlist (BDK, COF, WMT, X, VZ, KO, MCD, PG)
Just throwing some ideas out there. Any of these look ok? I think I like the COF puts the most and VZ calls for pinch. And KO to breakout the triangle.
BDK February $70 calls ($2.20)
COF February $36 puts ($1.06), chart looks bearish, all moving averages, pointed down except the 200. Looks like it will move closer to the 200. Plus a quant trader I know issued a sell short alert today at $36.7, he's usually accurate at least 1 point
WMT February $55 calls ($0.53)
X $45 calls on this support line
KO $55 Feb calls
MCD breakout
PG buy on new high breakout
VZ oversold + pinch, $29 February calls ($0.59). These calls were over $4 not to long ago....
Pinch Watchlist Updated
OGXI, still in, looking for $16+
TNDM, I'll probably get in this tomorrow, want $14.5 but will take a higher price, same setup as OGXI
CMIN looking real nice, would like .65-.70 entry
BQI drops a little more I'll get in, .75ish
Got in GOOG options ($540 strike) at $7.5, the ask is $10.90 right now and GOOG is right around the hod
JTX looks good, might get in on break of $2.92 (Friday's high)
CXW really big pinch going on might grab some tomorrow
Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP) 53.6% HIGHER; skyrocketing after hedge fund manger Ackman said on CNBC's Fast Money that the company has a better risk reward versus Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), which has attracted activist investors Ron Burkle.
Link
...Would be an awesome time to sell for people who got in before today's close :D
Nice call on RIG.
Hey, can you share your list of regular options that you look at by any chance? You said RIG/CVX. Wondering what else.
For example, the real liquid options (SPY, AAPL, GOOG, POT, MOS, RIMM, etc).
Whenever you get the chance.
Thanks.
9/26/10 @ 2:38am
'Buy' Rating on WFR reiterated; price target $21.
Positive Momentum in 4Q09, Added Clarity into 2010
February 1, 2010 12:17 PM EST
Broadpoint.AmTech reiterates a 'Buy' rating on MEMC Electronic Materials (NYSE: WFR), price target $21.
Broadpoint analyst says, "MEMC is schedule to report 4Q09 results on Wednesday, after the close and ahead of its Capital Markets Day on Thursday. We anticipate 4Q09 results to illustrate sequential improvement due to a continued semi rebound and strong demand from solar customers ahead of the German FIT cut...2010: We are modeling FY10 revenue and EPS above consensus at $1.8B (consensus $1.6B) and $0.85 (consensus $0.78) respectively. We expect semi units to be up 40% y/y, ASPs up 4.5% y/y, Solar units up 65% y/y, and ASPs down 24%. The meat of the 2010 forecast is likely to come on Thursday by way of segment clarity given consternation over SunEdison. We believe the increased granularity will be well received...Despite our oversupply concerns in solar and the slow-down in pace of the semi recovery, shares more than reflect these concerns and we see WFR as undervalued at 5x 2010 EBITDA. We expect earnings and increased clarity into segment detail to both be perceived positively, but believe the main engine for the stock will be the 3+ quarters of margin expansion we expect to see into 2010."
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Broadpoint.AmTech+Reiterates+a+Buy+Rating+on+MEMC+Electronic+Materials+%28WFR%29%3B+Positive+Momentum+in+4Q09,+Added+Clarity+into+2010/5294062.html
All WFR related upgrades/downgrades: http://www.streetinsider.com/stock_lookup_news.php?q=WFR&type=analyst
RZ and ACAD are both Terrible with a capital T
I dumped RZ at $0.95, was in at $1.01
RZ tanking.
2003 and 2009: S&P500 comparison
Monthly chart 01-01-2003 to 12-31-2008. Special attention year 2003 to 2009 (absurdly similar). The lines I drew above are not precise at all, just handdrew them in for January 2009 to January 2010. The rest (Feb 2010 onward) is just a rough copy of Feb 2004 to Dec 2008....
Some of the similarities in the years 2003 and 2009:
Both Jan/Feb were red months with bottoms in March.
After February the only red month was October in 2009, rest green
After February the only red month was September in 2003, rest green
January to March bottom of 2003 was an 18.65% drop
January to March bottom of 2009 was a 29.34% drop
2003 March low to December high was a 41.12% run
2009 March low to December high was approximately a 68% run
Check optionshouse
They seem to be the cheapest and the platform is clean, customizable, easy to use. I haven't traded with real $ yet (still waiting for the ACH transfer to go through) but excited to try it out. Commissions won me over.
https://www.optionshouse.com/tour/
What options are you looking at for next week?
OptionsHouse Referral
Hey, you can get $50 or 10 free trades if you refer me.
https://www.optionshouse.com/refer_secure/
What is the best way for me to send you my email address? You want to PM me your email and I will send you an email with my e-address? I don't like posting private info over the internetz.